Investment Focus - The report highlights a focus on structural opportunities driven by policy catalysis, particularly in essential consumer sectors such as dairy products and liquor, while cautioning against the risks in the soft drink sector [7]. Demand Analysis - In July, among the eight tracked essential consumer sectors, six maintained positive growth, while two experienced negative growth. The sectors with single-digit growth included dining (+4.4%), soft drinks (+2.7%), frozen foods (+1.7%), condiments (+1.1%), dairy products (+1.1%), and beer (+0.6%). The declining sectors were high-end and above liquor (-4.0%) and mass-market liquor (-3.9%) [3][9]. - The report notes that five sectors saw a deterioration in growth rates compared to the previous month, while three improved. The new alcohol ban and adverse weather conditions were identified as significant negative factors affecting demand [3][9]. Price Trends - In July, most liquor wholesale prices stabilized after a period of decline. Specific prices included Feitian at 1915/1880/655 yuan for different packaging, with year-on-year declines of 665/500/155 yuan. The price of Wuliangye was 930 yuan, showing a slight increase of 10 yuan from the previous month [3][22][24]. - The report indicates that the prices of liquid milk and beer saw a reduction in discount rates, while soft drink discounts increased, with stable prices for infant formula, convenience foods, and condiments [4][19]. Cost Analysis - The report states that the spot cost index for various sectors, including dairy, soft drinks, frozen foods, and beer, generally decreased in July, while futures cost indices showed mixed results. For instance, the spot cost index for dairy products fell by 2.92% [4]. Fund Flow - As of the end of July, net inflows into Hong Kong Stock Connect amounted to 124.1 billion yuan, with the essential consumer sector's market capitalization share rising to 5.05%. The food additives sector saw a decrease in share, while the dairy sector experienced an increase [5]. Valuation Insights - By the end of July, the historical PE ratio for the food and beverage sector was at 16% (20.2x), remaining stable from the previous month. The report notes that the median valuation for leading A-share companies was 20x, a decrease of 1x from the previous month [6]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support, particularly dairy and liquor, while being cautious about the soft drink sector's marginal deterioration. Specific companies to watch include China Feihe, Yili, Mengniu, Master Kong, Uni-President, Yanghe, WH Group, and China Foods [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy is expected to stimulate growth in the food and beverage sector, particularly benefiting the infant formula and dairy product markets [4]. - The report highlights three main investment themes in the liquor segment: strong leading brands, sustained regional advantages, and recovery-driven elastic stocks [1][2]. - In the beer and beverage segment, Budweiser faces sales pressure but is seeing price recovery, while the sugary tea category is gaining market share during peak seasons [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Leading brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao dominate the global rankings, with Moutai valued at $58.4 billion, maintaining its position as the most valuable liquor brand globally [2]. - The liquor sector is transitioning from scale growth to high-quality development, with a focus on brand strength and market positioning [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - Budweiser's Q2 2025 results show a revenue decline of 3.9% and a profit drop of 31.1%, with a notable 6.2% decrease in sales volume [3]. - The sugary tea segment is experiencing a resurgence, with brands like Kang Shifu and Uni-President maintaining leading positions, and sales of Yuanqi Forest's iced tea growing by 53.9% year-on-year [3]. Food Sector - The national childcare subsidy program, effective from January 1, 2025, is projected to enhance birth rates and subsequently increase demand for dairy products [4]. - New product launches by companies like Qiaqia and Ximai are aimed at expanding market presence and tapping into health-oriented consumer trends [4][7].

Group 1 - The 2025 Ningxiang "YEAH—Summer" Passion Consumption Season and the Third Qingdao Beer Carnival have commenced, making Ningxiang Wuyue Plaza a popular destination for cultural and tourism consumption [1][3] - The event is a core pre-activity for the Fourth Changsha Tourism Development Conference, showcasing a collaborative effort between government and enterprises to stimulate consumer activity [1][4] Group 2 - The event features a vibrant parade with elements from Qingdao Beer, Fantawild, and Tanhe Ancient City, engaging the audience with lively performances and interactions [4][8] - Qingdao Beer has introduced new products at the event, with an investment of over 700 million yuan in Ningxiang, contributing 200 million yuan in annual tax revenue [4][8] - Various entertainment programs are being presented by major scenic spots, including a "King of Beer" competition that has gained traction on social media [8][9] Group 3 - The event will run until August 4, featuring themed nights such as "Qing Beer Adventure" and "Qing Beer Accompanied Beautiful Ningxiang Night," inviting citizens to participate in various performances and activities [9]

Core Viewpoints - The liquor instant retail market is entering a rapid development phase, with significant room for channel penetration. Instant retail is defined as a "supply revolution" driven by consumer lifestyles, transitioning from "selling products" to "selling scenarios" [6][8] - The transformation of liquor channel models is accelerating, making the rapid development of instant retail a necessity. As the competition landscape for liquor stabilizes, consumers are increasingly pursuing price-performance ratios through diversified channels, leading to a contraction in traditional channel profits [7][10] - Liquor companies are actively embracing channel changes and expanding into instant retail and online channels. Instant retail is not just a sales channel but a way for liquor brands to integrate into residents' lifestyles, enhancing consumer engagement [7][10] Market Overview - The liquor instant retail market is projected to reach a scale of 36 billion yuan in 2024, with a penetration rate of approximately 1.8%. The growth potential remains vast, with estimates suggesting the market could reach 60-90 billion yuan by 2030 [6][20] - Instant retail channels are categorized into two main models: platform models that integrate resources (e.g., Meituan Flash Purchase) and self-operated models that maintain strong supply chain control [8][21] - The rapid growth of instant retail channels is driven by changing consumer lifestyles and the need for efficiency, with a focus on enhancing consumer experiences and meeting demand in lower-tier markets [10][20] Industry Opportunities - Instant retail creates opportunities for the liquor industry, such as serving as a trial ground for younger products and facilitating collaboration between liquor companies and platforms to co-create products [8][10] - The traditional profit margins in liquor channels are shrinking, prompting companies to adopt digital management and consumer-centric strategies to enhance efficiency [7][10] - The beer segment, with non-immediate consumption channels accounting for 60%, is also seeing a shift towards instant retail, which helps capture market share in lower-tier cities [10][20] Company Strategies - Major liquor brands are actively recruiting operators on multiple platforms, with companies like Moutai and Qingdao Beer launching new products and innovative sales models [7][10] - Companies are leveraging instant retail to enhance operational efficiency and product innovation, with a focus on high-end product offerings and consumer engagement [8][10] - The collaboration between liquor companies and platforms is expected to foster a more efficient and consumer-oriented sales environment, driving growth in the sector [7][10]

值得注意的是，今年首次亮相的1903大蓬的"啤酒交易所"火爆出圈。除了本地游客外，还有大量外地游 客围观拍照打卡。 8月1日，近日第35届青岛国际啤酒节正在举行。本届啤酒节首次推出专属IP定制酒，上新RADLER新产 品。此次RADLER新品推出的两款不同口味，一款为柠檬味果汁啤酒，一款为混合莓味果蔬汁啤酒，两 款产品外包装均以"金、绿、红、蓝"四色的啤酒节主题IP交融。 在西海岸新区金沙滩啤酒城，青岛啤酒1903大篷以"世界酒航海家"为主题全新升级打造的啤酒游轮，可 以俯瞰整个1903大篷；在老城区，1903酒馆mix打造全国独家"微醺疗愈"啤酒新范式，同时青岛啤酒还 以啤酒为主题，推出"以物换酒"、"啤酒保龄球"、"啤酒圈圈乐"、"酒搭默契考验"等趣味互动活动；在 崂山会场，青岛啤酒打造了"一城双景"的差异化交互体验。 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 有游客表示，第一次感觉到打酒像炒股一样，"自己先买到的啤酒过一会涨价了，这种情绪价值是其他 地方难以给予的。" 另外，在西海岸和市南老城会场，青啤特派员还携带着青岛啤酒畅享欢聚打酒包，提供随时随地、想喝 就喝的新体验。今年啤酒节还新推出智能化服务，灵活的机械臂 ...

本月底法定/註冊股本總額： RMB 1,364,196,788 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 青島啤酒股份有限公司 (在中華人民共和國註冊成立之中外合資股份有限公司) 呈交日期: 2025年8月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年6月30日 狀態: 新提交 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 600600 | 說明 | A股 | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 709,127,610 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 709,127,610 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 709,127,610 | RMB | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The beer stocks have experienced a significant decline, with Budweiser APAC down 5.47%, Qingdao Beer down 5.06%, and China Resources Beer down 4.04% as of the report time. The decline is attributed to a decrease in beer production and external consumption pressures, including a recent ban on alcohol sales [1]. Industry Summary - As of June 2025, the beer production volume of large-scale enterprises in China reached 4.12 million kiloliters, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. For the first half of the year, the cumulative beer production was 19.04 million kiloliters, down 0.3% year-on-year [1]. - The market sentiment has been affected by the alcohol ban, but there are signs of recovery as the beer consumption season approaches, coupled with positive consumer policy adjustments in China, which may lead to marginal improvements in beer demand [1]. Policy Impact - The Central Political Bureau held a meeting on July 30, emphasizing the expansion of domestic demand with a focus on improving livelihoods. This consumption stimulus policy is expected to alleviate the pressure on beer sales and sales expectations that have been impacted by external consumption environments and the alcohol ban [1].

此外，7月30日中央政治局召开会议，方正证券指出，本次政治局会议着力强调扩大内需，以民生为抓 手。此前啤酒行业受外部消费环境+禁酒令等影响，销量&销量预期承压。此次消费刺激政策有望修复 对啤酒板块旺季表现的预期。 消息面上，2025年6月，我国规模以上企业啤酒产量412.0万千升，同比下降0.2%。1-6月，中国规模以 上企业累计啤酒产量1904.4万千升，同比下降0.3%。东莞证券指出，禁酒令发布后，短期市场情绪放 大，啤酒亦受到一定扰动。纠偏后，近期市场情绪有所回暖。目前，属于啤酒消费旺季，叠加我国消费 政策定调积极，预计啤酒需求或边际改善。 啤酒股午后跌幅扩大，截至发稿，百威亚太(01876)跌5.47%，报8.29港元；青岛啤酒（600600）股份 (00168)跌5.06%，报49.7港元；华润啤酒(00291)跌4.04%，报26.15港元。 ...

Core Insights - The 35th Qingdao International Beer Festival is currently taking place, featuring a new "Beer Exchange" that has gained significant attention from both local and out-of-town visitors [1] - The "Beer Exchange" operates like a mini stock exchange, with over 20 beer taps offering up to 10 different fresh beers daily, allowing customers to "trade" based on price fluctuations limited to 20% [1] - The festival has introduced smart service innovations, including robotic arms for precise beer dispensing and interactive experiences with robots and robotic dogs [1] Group 1 - The "Beer Exchange" concept has attracted a large number of visitors, creating a unique experience likened to stock trading [1] - Customers can experience emotional value as they witness the price changes of beers they have purchased, enhancing the overall enjoyment of the festival [1] - The festival features a variety of interactive technologies, including robots that provide welcoming services and engage visitors in activities like "virtual toasts" [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese beer industry is undergoing a significant leadership transition, with major companies experiencing management changes over the past nine months, reflecting challenges in performance growth and strategic transformation [1][2][4] Group 1: Leadership Changes - Zhang Yong has been appointed as the new general manager of Zhujiang Beer, marking a shift in leadership as part of a broader trend affecting major beer companies in China [1] - In 2024, Qingdao Beer and Lanzhou Yellow River also saw significant management changes, with new leadership taking over after the retirement of long-standing executives [2] - International beer companies are also adjusting their leadership in China, with Budweiser China appointing Fabio Sala as the new China president, ending a three-year vacancy in the position [2] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The beer industry is facing a transition from volume growth to a new phase where both volume and profit are stagnating or only slightly increasing, prompting companies to seek new growth avenues [3] - A significant number of beer companies are reporting declining revenues, with four out of seven major listed companies experiencing revenue drops, including Budweiser Asia Pacific and China Resources Beer, with declines of -8.9% and -0.76% respectively [4][5] - The overall beer production in China decreased by 0.6% in 2024, with major companies like China Resources Beer and Budweiser Asia Pacific also reporting declines in sales volume [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The beer market is witnessing a shift in consumer demand, with challenges in high-end product growth and a decline in immediate consumption channels, leading to a need for strategic adjustments [6][7] - The competition in the beer sector is evolving from channel acquisition to exploring consumer scenarios, particularly in the high-end beer segment [6] - The online penetration rate in the alcohol industry has reached 35%, with the beer instant retail market experiencing significant growth, indicating a shift towards more diverse and health-oriented products [7]