[Table_Page] 公告点评|房地产Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【广发地产&海外】中国海外发展 (00688.HK) 6 月销售超预期,23 年核心拿地效果显现 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 6 月销售超预期。根据公司经营公告,中海地产(含宏洋)24 年 6 月 销售金额 466.8 亿元,同比+41%,其中中国海外发展贡献 426 亿元, 同比+49%,中国海外宏洋集团贡献 40.8 亿元,同比-12%。24 年上半 年,中海地产、中海发展、中海宏洋销售金额分别为 1484 亿元、1294 亿元、190 亿元,同比分别-18%、-16%、-27%。 ⚫ 6 月红盘集中入市,增加确定性。根据中指院,24 年上半年公司红盘 集中入市,24 年 3 月在上海推出顺昌玖里(高层)首开销售额 197 亿 元,占单月销售的 52%,6 月末集中推出上海领邸玖序、深圳深湾玖 序、北京京华玖序三个"玖"系高端住宅,首开销售额分别为 66、100、 62 亿元,合计销售 228 亿元,占 6 月销售的 54%。此外,公司 6 月末 推出低密产品(顺昌/恒昌玖里)首开 49 套 100 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - In June 2024, the company's sales area showed significant improvement, with luxury projects in first-tier cities driving sales revenue and average prices to historical highs. The company adopted a cautious approach to land acquisition, resulting in a land acquisition-to-sales ratio of only 0.09 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In June 2024, the company achieved a cumulative sales revenue of 148.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 17.6%. However, June's sales revenue reached 46.7 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 40.6%. The improvement in June's sales is attributed to changes in the sales structure, similar to the logic observed in March [6]. - The average selling price in June increased by 32.1% year-on-year and 63.2% month-on-month, reaching 31,740 RMB per square meter, the second-highest since 2020. This increase was primarily driven by high-priced luxury properties, which accounted for over 60% of total sales [6]. Land Acquisition - The company has significantly slowed its land acquisition pace, with a land acquisition-to-sales ratio of 0.09 in the first half of 2024. A total of six new land reserves were added, corresponding to a total equity construction area of 1.15 million square meters and land transfer fees of 12 billion RMB [6]. - Compared to 2023, the land acquisition-to-sales ratio has dropped sharply from 0.50 to 0.09, indicating a more cautious investment strategy [6]. Financial Projections - The report maintains earnings per share (EPS) projections for 2024-2026 at 2.41 RMB, 2.62 RMB, and 2.89 RMB, respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Overseas Development (0688) [4]. Core Views - The company reported a month-on-month decline in sales in April, but there is an expectation for gradual improvement in sales performance due to supportive policies [2][3]. - The investment intensity for land acquisition has been weak overall in 2024, with a cautious approach being maintained [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Sales Performance**: In the first four months of 2024, the company's cumulative sales amounted to 82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.3%. The cumulative sales area was 2.96 million square meters, down 46.3% year-on-year. However, the company ranked first in the industry for equity sales during this period [3]. - **Price Trends**: The average selling price in April returned to 23,350 yuan per square meter, following a spike in March due to luxury home sales. The average price in March reached nearly 40,000 yuan per square meter [3]. - **Land Acquisition**: No new land reserves were added in April, and the land investment intensity for the first four months was only 2%. The total land acquisition amount was 1.6 billion yuan, ranking the company 45th in the industry [3]. - **Future Expectations**: The report anticipates that the supportive policies, including government purchases, removal of purchase restrictions, and reduced loan rates, will lead to improved sales performance in the coming months [3]. - **Earnings Forecast**: The report maintains the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 at 2.41 yuan, 2.62 yuan, and 2.89 yuan respectively [3].

Company Operations and Structure - The company operates in 87 major cities in mainland China, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, as well as in Hong Kong and Macau[15]. - The company has a diversified business structure, including real estate development and commercial property operations across multiple regions[15]. - The company is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange under the stock code 00688[13]. - The company has established a strong presence in international markets, including London, for its commercial property operations[15]. - The company has a dedicated investor relations team to facilitate communication with shareholders[11]. Financial Performance - Contracted property sales reached RMB 309.81 billion, an increase of 5.1% compared to RMB 294.76 billion in 2022[16]. - Revenue for the year was RMB 202.52 billion, reflecting a growth of 12.3% from RMB 180.32 billion in the previous year[16]. - The company's attributable profit to shareholders was RMB 25.61 billion, up 10.1% from RMB 23.26 billion in 2022[16]. - Core attributable profit to shareholders decreased by 3.2% to RMB 23.65 billion from RMB 24.42 billion[16]. - The net gearing ratio improved to 38.7%, down from 42.9% in the previous year[16]. - The company maintained a dividend of HKD 0.80 per share, with a mid-term dividend of HKD 0.35 and a final dividend of HKD 0.45, reflecting a 12.5% increase from the previous final dividend[16]. Land Acquisition and Development - New land reserves increased by 3.4% to 7.64 million square meters, while total land reserves decreased by 21.0% to 54.03 million square meters[16]. - The company acquired 43 land parcels in 23 cities in mainland China and Hong Kong, with a total land acquisition cost of RMB 134.21 billion, a 42.0% increase year-on-year[39]. - The company successfully expanded its investment scale in first-tier cities, acquiring 12 high-quality land parcels that accounted for approximately 60% of the annual new equity land price[56]. - The total building area of the company's land reserves reached 35.22 million square meters, with an equity building area of 30.39 million square meters as of December 31, 2023[60]. Project Development and Sales - The company achieved record sales of RMB 9.27 billion on the opening day of Beijing Zhonghai Duquetai, setting a new record for new home sales in Beijing[25]. - The total construction area completed in 34 cities in mainland China reached 16.43 million square meters[54]. - In 2023, the company delivered 94,000 high-quality housing units, showcasing its strong delivery capabilities[70]. - The company plans to launch the Guangzhou Haizhu project for sale in March 2024, with completion expected in 2026[74]. Commercial Property Performance - The company's commercial property revenue increased by 20.9% year-on-year to RMB 6.36 billion, supported by the opening of 12 new commercial properties[39]. - The shopping center business achieved a rental rate of 96.3%, with overall foot traffic and sales increasing by 56.8% and 65.5% respectively[102]. - The company opened five new shopping centers, adding a total of 590,000 square meters of operational space[102]. Corporate Governance and Leadership - The board of directors includes experienced executives, with Yan Jianguo serving as Chairman and Zhang Zhichao as CEO[6][7]. - The company has a strong governance structure with independent non-executive directors, including Mr. Li, who has extensive experience in banking and finance[148]. - The company emphasizes the importance of corporate governance and risk management, with dedicated committees led by experienced directors[149][150]. Sustainability and ESG Initiatives - The company aims to reduce carbon emissions intensity by over 30% by 2030, using 2019 as the baseline, and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060[164]. - The company has been included in the FTSE4Good Index for seven consecutive years and the Hang Seng ESG 50 Index for four consecutive years, reflecting strong recognition in ESG performance[162]. - The company has launched a "Carbon Neutrality White Paper" detailing its energy-saving and emission-reduction potential, focusing on 12 key initiatives[164]. Employee Engagement and Community Involvement - The employee satisfaction score reached 84 points, while employee engagement scored 92 points, maintaining a leading position in the industry[173]. - The group has been awarded the "Caring Company" logo for 16 consecutive years, reflecting its commitment to community care and employee welfare[178]. - The group conducted nearly 1,389 training sessions covering all employees, with a total of 53,067 participants, averaging 89 hours of training per employee[172].

[Table_Page] 公告点评|房地产Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [【Table_T广itle] 发地产&海外】中国海外发展 [公Tab司le_I评nves级t] 买入 当前价格 12.14港元 （00688.HK） 合理价值 18.80港元 前次评级 买入 结算规模创历史同期新高，经营利润率回升 报告日期 2024-04-25 [ 核Tabl 心e_Su 观mm 点ary] ： [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 ⚫ 一季度结算创规模历史同期新高，经营利润率回升。公司发布24年一 2% 04/23 06/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 02/24 04/24 -8% 季度业绩公告，一季度收入365亿元，同比+14.4%，结算规模创历史 -19% 同期新高，经营溢利66.5亿元，同比+0.2%，剔除汇兑损益后的经营 -29% 溢利同比+22.2%，业绩表现亮眼。23Q1港币汇率波动不大，假设23Q1 -40% -50% 没有汇兑损益影响，那么24Q1剔除汇兑损益的经营溢利为81.1亿元， 中国海外发展 恒生指数 经营净利率22.2%，同比提升1.4pct，也高于23年剔除汇兑损益的经 营利润率 ...

中国海外发展（688） 更新报告 买入 2024年4月25日 行业排名持续提升，高质量稳健发展 罗凡环  权益销售金额排名第二：2023 年公司实现合同销售额约 3098 亿元，同比增长 5.1%，行业排名第三，权益口径销售金额排名第二。合同销售面积约 1336 万方，同 852-25321962 比下降 3.7%，合同均价提升 9.1%至 23195 元/平方米。整体市占率提高 0.29 个 ppt 至 2.66%。公司依然聚焦主流城市主流地段布局，一二线城市合约销售金额占集团系 Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 列公司（不含中海宏洋）合约销售金额 74%，在 31 个城市市占率位居当地前三，其 中11个城市市占率位居当地市场第一。销售回款率99%，同比提升6个ppt。公司宣 行业 房地产 派末期股息每股45港仙，全年派息率30%。 股价 12.14港元  土地投资规模及质量行业领先：虽然市场波动下行，但公司保持投资定力，聚焦高 能级城市的优质资产精准投资，2023年新增总购地金额1440亿元，对应货值2640亿 目标价 18.80港元 元，其中北上广深占比均超过60%，一线 ...

2024 年 4月 24日公司披露2024年第一季度业绩情况，一季度实 现营收365.0 亿元，同比+14.4%；实现经营利润 66.5亿元，同比 +0.15%，剔除汇兑净损益后的经营利润同比+22.2%。 营收及经营利润实现增长。一季度市场依然延续筑底调整态势， 但公司凭借稳健的财务状况、厚实的资源优势以及良好的销售回 款，加大竣工端投入，房地产开发业务结转量同比增长，带动整 体营业收入和经营利润均实现正增长。 销售排名地位稳固。一季度公司实现销售额602.06 亿元（含合联 营公司），同比-28.0%，而同期百强房企同比-49.1%；3 月单月公 司实现销售额412.11 亿元（含合联营公司），同比-4.1%，而同期 百强房企同比-47.0%。由于23 年基数较高，公司销售额同比有所 下降，但降幅明显小于百强房企。2024Q1 公司全口径销售额位列 港币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 克而瑞第二名，较2023Q1 上升两名。 22.00 1,200 东部大区销售贡献最大。从公司的销售额分布看，一季度南部71 20.00 1,000 亿、东部228 亿、中西部33亿、北部123 亿、港澳海外31 亿、 18.0 ...

Sales Performance - In Q1 2024, the group achieved contract property sales of RMB 60.21 billion, with a corresponding sales area of 2.02 million square meters[2]. - The group's revenue for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was RMB 36.50 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.4%[3]. - Operating profit for the same period was RMB 6.65 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 22.2% after excluding foreign exchange gains and losses[3]. Land Acquisition - The group acquired two new land parcels in two cities in mainland China, adding a total construction area of 140,000 square meters at a total land cost of RMB 1.60 billion[2]. Financial Position - The group maintains a low net gearing ratio and financing costs, reflecting a strong financial position[3]. - The group expresses confidence in delivering solid operational performance to reward shareholders amid ongoing economic uncertainties[1]. - The group emphasizes the importance of prudent investment decisions for shareholders and potential investors[5]. Market Conditions - The central government has introduced supportive policies for rigid and improvement housing demand, which is expected to stabilize the real estate market[1]. - The real estate industry in China continues to experience a downward trend, with weak transaction volumes in Q1 2024[1]. Disclaimer - The information provided is unaudited and should not be seen as an indication or guarantee of the group's financial performance[5].

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 2024 年 04 月 11 日 中国海外发展（00688.HK） 央企龙头业绩逆势增长，维持核心城市拿地强度 2023 年公司营收及业绩均实现逆势增长。公司 2023 年实现主营业务收 入 2025.2 亿元（同比+12.3%，下同）；归母净利润 256.1 亿元（+10.1%）； 核心归母净利润 236.5 亿元（-2.8%）。毛利率 20.3%（-1pct）；归母净 利率 12.6%（-0.3pct）。公司 2023 年实现收入业绩逆势增长，主要是公 司多年坚持在核心城市布局，销售结转态势良好且成本费用管控领先行 业，利润率降幅小于行业、减值压力较轻。截至 2023 年末公司剔除中海 宏洋的已售未结转金额为 1859 亿元，我们预计公司业绩平稳向好。 持续保持财务稳健，成本优势突出。截至 2023 年末，公司有息负债规模 2576.6 亿元（-4.7%），其中一年内到期借贷为 409.7 亿元，占比 15.9% 结构健康。截至 2023 年末，在手现金 1056.3 亿元，加上未使用银行授信 额度 492.6 亿元，有效覆盖短端债务。公司优异的资信背景下，加权平均 融资成 ...

2024年4月9日 公司研究 利润率表现稳定，小阳春销售亮眼 ——中国海外发展（0688.HK）动态跟踪 要点 买入（维持） 当 前价：12.08港元 事件：公司发布2023年业绩公告及2024年3月经营公告。2023年，公司实现 营收 2025 亿元，同比增长 12.3%；归母净利润 256 亿元，同比增长 10.1%。 2024年3月，公司实现销售额412亿元，同比下降4.1%。 作者 点评：23年业绩同比企稳回升，盈利水平保持稳健，聚焦核心城市销售亮眼。 分析师：何缅南 执业证书编号：S0930518060006 业绩同比企稳回升，盈利水平保持稳健: 2023年，公司实现营收2025亿元，其 021-52523801 中地产开发业务实现营收1929亿元，同比增长11.8%，截至23年末公司（不 hemiannan@ebscn.com 含中海宏洋）已售未结金额1859亿元，同比增长7.6%，预期24年开发业务结 联系人：庄晓波 算规模有保障；公司商业物业收入63.6亿元，同比增长20.9%，表现亮眼，近 021-52523416 年来商业入市力度较大，预期24年商业收入有望延续较高增速，提高多元化竞 zh ...