盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 不考虑本次资产重组，我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 2.66、2.83、 2.92 元，根据 DDM 估值模型，给予公司目标价 47.58 元，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示 经济增速下滑；政府进一步调控大宗商品价格；公司产能利用率不及预期；海外煤价大 幅下跌导致公司煤炭售价下降。 公司主要财务信息 中国神华 601088.SH 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | | 中国神华（601088.SH）事件点评 核心观点 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 343,074 | 338,375 | 310,083 | 332,096 | 343,629 | | 同比增长 (%) | -0.4% | -1.4% | -8.4% | 7.1% | 3.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 91,367 | 88,362 | 78,212 | 83,368 | 86,030 | | 同比增长 (%) | -6.9% | -3.3% ...

New IPOs - Nanhua Futures (02691) received 1.91 times subscription in the Hong Kong public offering with a share price of HKD 12 [1] - Mindray Hospital (02581) received 6.28 times subscription in the Hong Kong public offering with a share price of HKD 9.34 [1] - Huazhang Biotech-B (02396) had a limited price offering with 791.95 times subscription in the Hong Kong public offering [1] - Impression Dahongpao (02695) received 3397.48 times subscription in the Hong Kong public offering with a share price of HKD 3.6 [1] Major Events - China Shenhua (01088) plans to acquire assets from its controlling shareholder for approximately CNY 133.598 billion and raise up to CNY 20 billion in supporting funds, upgrading its full industry chain layout [1] - China Shenhua (01088) intends to increase capital by CNY 6 billion to the State Energy Group Financial Company [1] - Sichuan Chengyu Expressway (00107) subsidiary plans to acquire 85% equity of Hubei Jingyi Expressway Co., Ltd. for CNY 2.409 billion [1] - Chongqing Steel (01053) plans to issue shares worth CNY 1 billion to Huabao Investment [1] - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) further acquires 55% equity of Kazakhstan's SM Minerals, increasing its stake to 70% [1] - Qingdao Port (06198) plans to invest CNY 6.615 billion in the construction of Dongjiakou General Terminal Project [1] - Qingdao Port (06198) also plans to invest approximately CNY 9.097 billion in the first phase of the Dongjiakou Container Terminal Project [1] - Yanda Pharmaceutical (00512) successfully achieved the primary clinical endpoint in the Phase III clinical study of the innovative radioactive nuclide conjugate drug TLX591-CDx for prostate cancer diagnosis [1] Financial Data - SF Express (06936) reported a total revenue of CNY 27.173 billion from its express logistics, supply chain, and international business in November, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.85% [2] Share Buybacks - Tencent Holdings (00700) repurchased 1.038 million shares for HKD 636 million on December 19 [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) repurchased 3.75 million shares for HKD 152 million on December 19 [2] - COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919) repurchased 396.55 thousand shares for HKD 53.6689 million on December 19 [2] - Kuaishou-W (01024) repurchased 75.5 thousand shares for HKD 49.9509 million on December 19 [2]

Suspension - Dongfang Zhizao will change its actual controller to Guangxi State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, and the stock will resume trading [1] - Tianchuang Fashion is planning a change of control, leading to stock suspension [2] - Guankang Technology is planning to issue shares to acquire Jinzhou Liaojing Electronic Technology and raise matching funds, resulting in stock suspension; the latter specializes in semiconductor integrated circuits and discrete devices research [2] Capital Increase and Mergers - China Shenhua plans to increase capital to acquire equity in 12 core enterprises under its controlling shareholder, the National Energy Group, covering coal, coal power, and coal chemical industries, with a total transaction price of 133.598 billion yuan [3] - Boliview intends to raise no more than 650 million yuan for projects related to intelligent manufacturing of cylindrical batteries, AI-driven reliability analysis, and working capital [3] External Investment and Daily Operations - Shengxin Lithium Energy is set to sign a cooperation framework agreement with Zhongchuang Xinhang for lithium salt product business, with a procurement volume of 200,000 tons from 2026 to 2030 [4] - Jinggong Technology plans to invest 426 million yuan to build an intelligent manufacturing base, aiming for production capacity of 45 aerospace and low-altitude manned equipment sets and 6,000 sets of carbon fiber components for humanoid robots [4] - Huahai Qingke has delivered over 800 CMP equipment units [5] - Chuangyao Technology plans to invest in Xuanjixingyuan, which focuses on satellite navigation [6] - Sichuan Jiuzhou intends to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary to purchase assets, liabilities, and personnel related to the RF business of Sichuan Jiuzhou Electric Group, with an assessed value of 757 million yuan [6] - Tianqi Lithium's third-phase chemical-grade lithium concentrate expansion project has been completed and is now in trial operation [7] - Jifeng Co., Ltd. has secured a project for passenger car seat assembly with a total lifecycle value estimated at 9.8 billion yuan [8] - Chlor-alkali Chemical plans to increase capital by 893 million yuan for an advanced materials waste salt comprehensive utilization project [9] - Dayu Water-saving's consortium has won a bid for the design, construction, and operation of the Guangxi Northwest drought relief project, with a total amount of 1 billion yuan [9] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical's SHR-2906 injection clinical trial has been approved, with no similar drugs approved for market domestically or internationally [10] - Qingdao Port plans to invest a total of 15.7 billion yuan in the construction of two terminal projects in Dongjiakou Port Area [11] - Dongfang Cable and its subsidiaries have won projects worth approximately 3.125 billion yuan [12] - Mind Electronics' wafer factory is currently operating at full capacity and will continue to expand steadily [13]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之 內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示 概不就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引 致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 ( 在中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司 ) (股份代碼:01088) 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第 13.10B 條而 做出。 茲載列中國神華能源股份有限公司於 2025 年 12 月 20 日在上海證券 交易所網站(www.sse.com.cn)刊登的「國網能源哈密煤電有限公司大 南湖二號露天煤礦採礦權評估報告」等文件，僅供參閱。 承董事會命 中國神華能源股份有限公司 總會計師、董事會秘書 宋靜剛 北京，2025 年 12 月 21 日 於本公告日期，董事會成員包括執行董事張長岩先生，非執行董事康 鳳偉先生及李新華先生，獨立非執行董事袁國強博士、陳漢文博士及 王虹先生，職工董事焦蕾女士。 1 国网能源哈密煤电有限公司大南湖二号露天 煤矿采矿权评估报告 中联评矿报字〔2025〕第 5364 号 中联资产评估集团有限公司 二〇二五年十二月十六日 通讯地址:北京市复兴门 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之 內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示 概不就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引 致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 ( 在中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司 ) (股份代碼:01088) 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第 13.10B 條而 做出。 茲載列中國神華能源股份有限公司於 2025 年 12 月 20 日在上海證券 交易所網站(www.sse.com.cn)刊登的「國家能源集團寧夏煤業有限責 任公司寧夏寧魯煤電有限責任公司任家莊煤礦採礦權評估報告」等文 件，僅供參閱。 承董事會命 中國神華能源股份有限公司 總會計師、董事會秘書 宋靜剛 北京，2025 年 12 月 21 日 於本公告日期，董事會成員包括執行董事張長岩先生，非執行董事康 鳳偉先生及李新華先生，獨立非執行董事袁國強博士、陳漢文博士及 王虹先生，職工董事焦蕾女士。 1 国家能源集团宁夏煤业有限责任公司宁夏宁 鲁煤电有限责任公司任家庄煤矿 采矿权评估报告 中联评矿报字〔2025〕第 5367 号 中联资产评估集团有限 ...

Core Insights - The coal market is expected to gradually improve as November raw coal production continues to decline year-on-year, while daily consumption has room for growth [5][79] - The report indicates that the coal industry is rated as a "Buy" with expectations of improved profitability in Q4 2025 and 2026 [5][6] Market Dynamics - The price of thermal coal has continued to decline, with the CCI5500 thermal coal index reported at 716 RMB/ton, down 42 RMB/ton week-on-week [11][80] - In the main production areas, thermal coal prices have generally decreased, with Shanxi region prices dropping by 70 RMB/ton [11][80] - The coal mining capacity utilization rate was reported at 88.3%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points week-on-week [21][38] - Coal inventory at major ports increased by 2.8% week-on-week, reaching 7.261 million tons [21][24] Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a slight increase in coal demand in 2026, while supply is expected to have limited upward potential, leading to an upward adjustment in coal prices [5][79] - The report highlights that the coal industry’s total profit for the first ten months of 2025 was 257 billion RMB, a 49% year-on-year decline [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of the 2026 long-term contract policy, which aims to ensure stable supply and pricing in the coal market [82][85] Key Companies - Companies with stable dividends in the thermal coal sector include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal [5][6] - High elasticity companies benefiting from improved demand expectations and supply contraction include Shanxi Coking Coal and Lu'an Environmental Energy [5][6] - Companies with long-term growth potential highlighted in the report include Baofeng Energy and China Qinfa [5][6]

财务数据显示，2024年标的资产合计实现营收1139.74亿元，扣非净利润94.28亿元。交易完成后，在不 考虑募集配套资金的情况下，2025年1—7月，中国神华总营收将增至2065.09亿元，扣非净利润增至 326.37亿元，资产总额增至8965.87亿元。 中国神华方面表示，本次收购覆盖煤炭、坑口煤电、煤化工等多个领域，有利于提高上市公司核心业务 产能与资源储备规模，进一步优化全产业链布局，为推进清洁生产、优化产能匹配、提升盈利能力创造 有利条件。中经记者 陈家运 北京报道 【中国神华拟1335.98亿元并购控股股东资产】12月19日晚间，中国神华（601088.SH）公告披露，拟以 1335.98亿元收购控股股东国家能源集团及关联方持有的12家核心能源企业股权，并配套募集资金。交 易采用"30%股份+70%现金"的组合支付方式，其中现金对价约935.19亿元。 交易完成后，中国神华煤炭可采储量将增加97.71%至345亿吨；年煤炭产量提升56.57%至5.12亿吨；发 电装机容量增至6088.1万千瓦，增长27.82%；聚烯烃产量增长213.33%。 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 12 21 年 月 日 中国神华（601088.SH） 千亿资产收购方案落地，黑金航母扩容再启航 公司发布《发行股份及支付现金购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易报告书》 公告。中国神华拟通过发行 A 股股份及支付现金的方式购买国家能源集团持 有的国源电力 100%股权、新疆能源 100%股权、化工公司 100%股权、乌海 能源 100%股权、平庄煤业 100%股权、神延煤炭 41%股权、晋神能源 49% 股权、包头矿业 100%股权、航运公司 100%股权、煤炭运销公司 100%股权、 港口公司 100%股权，并以支付现金的方式购买西部能源持有的内蒙建投 100%股权。 ➢ 交易对价：最终交易价款 1335.98 亿元，其中现金对价 935.2 亿元， 发行股份对价 400.8 亿元，发行股份的价格为 29.4 元/股； 业务体量显著提升。通过本次交易， 中国神华煤炭保有资源量将提升至 684.9 亿吨，增长率达；煤炭可采储量将提升至 64.72% 345 亿吨，增长率达 97.71%； 煤炭产量将提升至 5.12 亿吨，增长率达 56.57%；发 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company’s A and H shares, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [7][18]. Core Insights - The acquisition plan has been finalized, significantly increasing the company's resources and further enhancing its competitive advantages [1]. - The acquisition involves purchasing 12 assets from the National Energy Group for a total consideration of RMB 133.6 billion, which includes RMB 40.08 billion in shares and RMB 93.52 billion in cash [7]. - The transaction is expected to increase the company's coal resources by 269 billion tons and enhance its operational capacity, with a projected increase in net profit of 13.4% for 2024 and 11.6% for 2025 [7]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to decline slightly from RMB 343.07 billion in 2023 to RMB 310.46 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of -0.4% in 2023 and -8.2% in 2025 [2][11]. - EBITDA is expected to decrease from RMB 116.81 billion in 2023 to RMB 97.96 billion in 2025, reflecting a downward trend in profitability [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline from RMB 59.69 billion in 2023 to RMB 52.29 billion in 2025, with a net profit margin of 20.3% in 2023 [11][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decrease from RMB 3.00 in 2023 to RMB 2.63 in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.4 in 2023 [2][11]. Resource and Capacity Expansion - The acquisition will add significant coal production capacity of over 1.9 million tons and increase the company's coal and polyolefin output by approximately 185 million tons and 1.28 million tons, respectively [7]. - The company will also gain additional power generation capacity of 1.325 million kilowatts through the acquisition [7]. Valuation - The report estimates a reasonable value of RMB 46.85 per share for A shares and HKD 45.80 per share for H shares based on a projected P/E ratio of 17 times for 2026 [7].

交易完成后，中国神华的煤炭保有资源量将提升至684.9亿吨，增长率达64.72%；煤炭可采储量将提升 至345亿吨，增长率达97.71%；煤炭产量将提升至5.12亿吨，增长率达56.57%；中国神华2024年每股收 益将提升至3.15元/股，增厚6.1%。2025年1月至7月每股收益提升至1.54元/股，增厚4.4%。 记者了解到，此次重组的核心价值在于实质性解决中国神华与国家能源集团长达二十年的同业竞争问 题，构建起更为完整的"煤—电—运—化"产业链闭环。通过集约化统一管理，企业将强化跨区域资源统 筹配置能力，提升能源保供关键时期的应急响应水平，切实履行央企保障国家能源安全的主体责任。 | 原号 | 交易标的 名称 | 基准日 | 定价评估方法 | 评估结果 (万元) | 增值率/ 澄价率 | 本次は 易的权益 | 交易价格 (万元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 比例 | | | 1 | 国源电力 | 2025年7月31日 | 资产基础法 | 4.458,199.29 | 61.71% | 100% | ...