Core Viewpoint - The 2025 National Top Ten Works selection process has commenced, with public voting starting from December 19 to December 25, 2023, following expert evaluations held on December 18-19, 2023 [1][3]. Group 1: Voting Process and Categories - The public voting phase allows participants to select their preferred high-end, light luxury, and quality residential products, with each individual allowed to vote once per category and select up to ten projects [12]. - The final results will be based on the cumulative valid votes from all participants, and the winners will be announced in early January 2026 [11]. Group 2: Evaluation and Selection - The evaluation process includes expert reviews, public voting, and assessment models, which will determine the final rankings for the "National Top Ten High-end/Light Luxury/Quality Works" and the "China Good House Comprehensive Award/Individual Awards" [11]. - The "Product Power 100" research initiative has been ongoing since 2018, focusing on enhancing product quality and addressing housing pain points in the real estate sector [11]. Group 3: Featured Projects - Various projects have been highlighted, including: - Nanning Bangtai·Lan Jing, a modern high-rise residential development by Bangtai Group [15]. - Shanghai Haishang Yuanshu, featuring modern oriental architecture by Guomao Real Estate and Songjiang Investment [17]. - Zhuhai Huafa Tianxi, a modern residential project by China Resources Land [19]. - Beijing Jingyue Chang'an, showcasing a modern aesthetic by Houtai Group and Jindi Group [26]. - These projects represent a diverse range of architectural styles and residential offerings, emphasizing quality and modern living [15][17][19][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that there is significant potential for high-quality development in China's real estate sector, driven by both rigid and improvement housing demands. The urbanization rate for permanent residents is projected to reach 67% by 2024, while the registered population urbanization rate is below 50%, indicating ongoing housing demand [11][12] - A new model for real estate development is being proposed, focusing on controlling supply, revitalizing existing stock, and encouraging the transformation of real estate companies. This includes reforms in development, financing, and sales systems to facilitate a smooth transition from old to new models [12][4] - The report highlights that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investing in real estate stocks is akin to investing in economic trends. The focus remains on first-tier and select second-tier cities, which are expected to perform better in terms of sales [4][12] Summary by Sections Central Economic Work Conference Insights - The central government outlines the need for high-quality development in real estate, addressing both rigid and improvement demands. The report notes that many urban residents are still unsatisfied with their housing conditions, indicating a strong potential for improvement demand [11][12] Market Review - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.4% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.13 percentage points, ranking 24th among 31 Shenwan primary industries. A total of 71 stocks rose, while 40 fell [13][4] New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the latest week, 30 cities recorded new housing transaction areas of 208.7 million square meters, a 19.9% increase month-on-month but a 42.7% decrease year-on-year. First-tier cities accounted for 54.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 14.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 36.9% [24][26] - For second-hand housing, 14 sample cities saw a total transaction area of 200.4 million square meters, a 2.0% increase month-on-month but a 24.8% decrease year-on-year [30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to the anticipated policy support and the improving competitive landscape. Key stocks to watch include major developers and companies involved in property management and brokerage services [4][12]

房地产行业|证券研究报告—行业月报 2025 年 12 月 21 日 强于大市 房地产行业 2025 年 11 月月报 11 月新房成交同比降幅扩大，二手房成交同比降幅收窄；中央经济 工作会议指出"稳地产、去库存"，预期 26 年地产政策空间打开 核心观点 【新房成交】 【二手房成交】 【新房库存与去化】 【土地市场】 【房企】 【政策】 【板块收益】 11 月新房成交面积环比由正转负、同比降幅扩大。11 月 40 城新房成交面积环比-6.8%，同比-40.7%，同比降幅较 10 月扩大 13.9pct，1-11 月累计同比-11.5%。我们认为，影响居民购房能力及购房意愿的收入与就业预期尚未根本性扭转，市场信心仍然不 足，叠加去年 12 月销售的基数也相对较高，全年地产市场压力很难缓解。 从各能级城市来看，11 月一、二、三四线城市新房成交面积同比降幅均扩大。1）一线城市：11 月新房成交面积环比+4.5%，同比-43.5%， 同比降幅较 10 月扩大 5.2pct；1-11 月累计同比-13.8%。具体来看，11 月北京新房成交面积环比-34%，同比-54%；上海环比+31%，同比- 22%；广州环比-1 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Land Beijing has been committed to quality and innovation for 31 years, focusing on creating a beautiful living experience for families through its products, services, and community engagement [1] Group 1: Project Highlights - Jingxi Runfu integrates cultural elements from Fangshan and features community spaces inspired by traditional Chinese paintings, with sizes ranging from approximately 80 to 124 square meters [2] - Puli Runfu emphasizes high-quality community interaction spaces, combining northern and southern garden styles, and includes various amenities such as a swimming pool and gym [3] - Zhonghuan Runfu, located in the inner city, features modern architectural elements and luxurious materials, creating a serene and aesthetically pleasing living environment [4] Group 2: Delivery and Community Engagement - The "Runxin Delivery" concept focuses on service throughout the homeowner's lifecycle, encouraging community involvement and transparency during the waiting period [5] - Customized delivery events for each project aim to create unique memories and foster a sense of belonging among residents [6] - The company promotes ongoing community activities post-delivery, enhancing social interactions and building a vibrant neighborhood atmosphere [6]

Core Insights - The report by Guandian Index indicates a recovery in land acquisition by the top 50 real estate companies, with a monthly increase of 6.8% in land area acquired, totaling 309.49 million square meters during the reporting period [1][6] - Cumulatively, from January to November, the top 50 companies acquired 45.43 million square meters of land, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [1][6] - Leading companies in land acquisition include China Overseas Land & Investment, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments, with land reserves of 4.67 million square meters, 3.87 million square meters, and 3.74 million square meters respectively [1][8] Land Acquisition Trends - The report highlights a shift towards more rational land acquisition decisions, with companies focusing on mature areas backed by solid data rather than blind expansion [1][10] - The top companies in terms of equity land acquisition amounts from January to November are China Overseas Land & Investment (CNY 88.02 billion), China Resources Land (CNY 62.59 billion), and Poly Developments (CNY 59.7 billion) [8][9] - The total new land value added by these companies during the same period was led by China Overseas Land & Investment (CNY 116.3 billion), followed closely by China Merchants Shekou (CNY 111.34 billion) and Poly Developments (CNY 97.22 billion) [8][9] Land Supply and Market Dynamics - The supply of residential land in first, second, and third-tier cities saw a significant month-on-month increase of 149.72%, totaling 13,133.95 million square meters, although it remains down 14.20% year-on-year [10][12] - The starting floor price for supplied land decreased by 9.69% to CNY 3,167 per square meter, indicating cautious market expectations regarding land value [10][12] - The overall land market is still in an adjustment phase, with significant differences in recovery rates across different city tiers, suggesting that market activity requires more supportive factors to sustain growth [12][18] Urban Renewal and Policy Support - Recent central government initiatives emphasize urban renewal, aiming to integrate it with housing stability and safety improvements, which is expected to enhance market confidence and attract social capital [28][29] - The issuance of special bonds for urban renewal projects has accelerated, with a net issuance of CNY 655.19 billion in November, reflecting a significant increase in funding for land acquisition and development [12][14] - Local governments are innovating in urban renewal practices, such as Chongqing's incentive mechanisms for increasing public service functions, which may serve as a model for other regions [29]

Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a cautious shift in land acquisition strategies among companies, focusing on high-quality land parcels rather than blind expansion [5][9][11] - The supply of residential land in first, second, and third-tier cities has shown a significant month-on-month recovery, although year-on-year comparisons remain weak [14][16][20] - The issuance of special bonds for land acquisition is accelerating, providing a positive signal to the market and enhancing confidence in economic development [19][20] Group 1: Land Acquisition Trends - The top 50 real estate companies added a total of 309.49 million square meters of land in November, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.8% [5][9] - Leading companies in land acquisition include China Overseas Land, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments, with respective land reserves of 467.46 million square meters, 386.71 million square meters, and 373.95 million square meters [11][12] - The total land acquisition amount for the top companies from January to November reached 880.2 billion yuan for China Overseas Land, 625.9 billion yuan for China Resources Land, and 597 billion yuan for Poly Developments [11][12] Group 2: Land Supply and Pricing - In the reporting period, 1,833 residential land plots were supplied across first, second, and third-tier cities, with a total planned construction area of 131.34 million square meters, marking a month-on-month increase of 149.72% [14][16] - The starting floor price for supplied land was 3,167 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 9.69% [14][16] - The average transaction price for residential land in first, second, and third-tier cities was 4,165.2 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month decrease of 6.43% [20][22] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Special Bonds - The issuance of special bonds for land acquisition has increased significantly, with a net issuance of 655.19 billion yuan in November, including 492.19 billion yuan for new special bonds [19][20] - The market is witnessing a cautious approach from companies towards non-core areas, focusing instead on mature regions with solid data support [5][9][11] - The overall land market remains in an adjustment phase, with varying recovery rates across different city tiers, indicating a need for more positive factors to support market heat [23][25]

Core Viewpoint - The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port marks a new phase of comprehensive openness for Hainan, with significant policy adjustments aimed at stimulating the real estate market and attracting investment [2][3]. Market Conditions - Hainan's real estate market is recovering, with a reported sales revenue of 127.95 billion yuan from January to October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.4%. The sales area reached 7.75 million square meters, up 8.0%, and the average transaction price rose to 16,506 yuan per square meter, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year [3][10]. - The city of Sanya remains a focal point, with its economic circle achieving a sales revenue of 74.25 billion yuan, a staggering year-on-year growth of 48.4%, and new home sales prices soaring to 31,467 yuan per square meter, up over 30% [10]. Land Acquisition Trends - Major players in the real estate sector, such as China Green Development, are aggressively acquiring land in Hainan, spending nearly 5 billion yuan in just two days to secure prime locations in Sanya [4][7]. - The land auction market has seen significant activity, with a total transaction amount exceeding 9.5 billion yuan in Sanya from June to September 2025, accounting for over 60% of the city's fiscal revenue for 2024 [7]. Policy Changes - New policies include a shift from stringent purchase restrictions to more flexible regulations, such as reducing the social security requirement for non-restricted areas from five years to two years and shortening the resale period from five years to two years [3][9]. - The introduction of "targeted land bidding" aims to attract quality real estate companies while mitigating risks associated with blind land acquisition [9]. Investment Opportunities - The Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to attract three main groups: manufacturing giants, foreign investors, and tourism-related personnel, indicating a potential increase in demand for both real estate and rental markets [17]. - The "Double 15%" tax incentive policy is designed to optimize financial structures for businesses operating in Hainan, further enhancing the attractiveness of the region for investment [17].

证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 18 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 中央经济工作会议明确化解风险，稳定楼市 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（25/12/6-25/12/12） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数下跌 0.3%、深证成指上升 0.8%、创业板指上升 2.7%、 沪深 300 下跌 0.1%、房地产（申万）下跌 2.6%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分 别为：三湘印象(+12.1%)、南都物业(+7.6%)、京基智农(+5.1%)、苏州高新 (+4.2%)、世联行(+2.9%)，涨跌幅后五的分别为：海泰发展(-18.2%)、ST 中迪 (-15.5%)、*ST 阳光(-11.7%)、中天服务(-11.0%)、*ST 荣控(-11.0%)。 联系人 板块表现： 数据跟踪： ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the fourth-generation ecological residential project in Quanzhou, developed by China Resources Land, faces significant safety management challenges due to its unique architectural design and structural complexities [1][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project includes three ordinary residential buildings and three fourth-generation ecological residential buildings, featuring a height of 29-32 floors and an "air courtyard" design [1]. - The fourth-generation residential buildings are characterized by a complex structural system, with a maximum cantilever length of 12.5 meters and a supporting height of 6.3 meters, which increases construction safety risks compared to traditional residential buildings [1]. Group 2: Safety Management Strategies - A comprehensive safety management system was established, focusing on "risk preemption, technology empowerment, and closed-loop control," to ensure safe and orderly construction of the main structure [1]. - A special safety task force was formed to identify and manage 28 core risk points, including "high support instability, cantilever structure deformation, and multi-trade interference" [1][3]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - BIM technology was utilized to create detailed structural models, allowing for precise calculations of the load-bearing conditions of key components [3]. - The project adopted a socket-type steel pipe scaffold for high support construction and implemented strict safety controls for the waterproofing process, including a 24-hour water retention test before proceeding to the next construction phase [3]. Group 4: Health and Safety Measures - A comprehensive occupational health and safety system was developed, incorporating a "prevention-monitoring-intervention" approach, and health records were established for all frontline workers [4]. - Daily safety meetings included standardized demonstrations for protective equipment usage, ensuring compliance with safety protocols [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The project aims to set a high standard for safety management and quality in the construction of high-quality ecological residential buildings, providing replicable practices for similar projects in the future [5].

Financing Overview - In November, the total bond financing in the real estate sector reached 62.04 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 28.5% [1][2][7] - The financing structure included 26.22 billion yuan from credit bonds (down 1.6% year-on-year, accounting for 42.3%), 6.42 billion yuan from overseas bonds (10.3%), and 29.4 billion yuan from ABS (up 36% year-on-year, accounting for 47.4%) [2][8] - From January to November 2025, total bond financing for real estate companies was 550.28 billion yuan, a 10.5% increase year-on-year [2][8] Credit Bond Issuance - Credit bond issuance saw a slight year-on-year decline, primarily from state-owned enterprises, with major issuers including China Merchants Shekou and Poly Developments, each issuing over 3 billion yuan [3][9] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 3.56 years, with a focus on 1-3 year and over 3-year bonds [3][9] ABS Issuance - ABS issuance totaled 29.4 billion yuan, showing significant growth, with class REITs being the largest category at 51.7% of the total [4][10] - Recent successful ABS projects include the "Huatai-Shanghai Zhongjian Plaza" and "CITIC Securities-Yuexiu Commercial" plans, which support the development of operational business models for real estate companies [4][10] Financing Costs - The average bond financing interest rate was 2.66%, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.07 percentage points, but an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [5][11] - The average interest rate for credit bonds was 2.23%, down 0.55 percentage points year-on-year, while overseas bonds had an average rate of 2.97% [5][11] Corporate Financing Dynamics - China Merchants Shekou had the highest issuance amount at 5.04 billion yuan, while Suzhou High-tech had the lowest financing cost at 1.73% [6][12] - Key companies such as China Jinmao, China Resources, and Poly Developments reported new financing activities, while Sunac and Times China had their overseas debt restructuring plans approved [6][12]