【#比亚迪在欧洲两大市场销量超特斯拉#】比亚迪去年在欧洲最大的两个电动车市场销量均超过特斯 拉。根据德国联邦机动车管理局周二公布的数据，去年12月，比亚迪在德国的新车注册量是特斯拉的两 倍以上。以全年计，比亚迪在欧洲最大的电动车市场德国的销量增长七倍，至23,306辆，而特斯拉的销 量几乎腰斩，降至19,390辆。比亚迪在英国这一欧洲第二大插电式汽车市场同样领先特斯拉。比亚迪在 去年9月超过特斯拉，并以51,422辆的全年销量收官，高于特斯拉的45,513辆。（智通财经） ...

Core Insights - The core prediction for the Chinese lithium battery industry in 2026 indicates a total shipment volume exceeding 2.3 TWh, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 30% [1][2]. - The energy storage lithium battery shipments are expected to surpass 850 GWh, with a growth rate exceeding 35%, while power batteries (including those for passenger and commercial vehicles) will exceed 1.3 TWh, growing over 20% [1][2]. Industry Trends - The independent energy storage market in China is experiencing unexpected growth, supported by capacity price subsidy policies, which have improved the internal rate of return (IRR) for energy storage stations to between 6-12% [3]. - The demand for energy storage is driven by increased needs in Europe and the U.S., particularly in data centers [3]. Market Dynamics - The concentration of orders among leading companies has led to capacity shortages for major manufacturers, while smaller companies face idle capacity, highlighting a core contradiction in supply and demand [2][8]. - The "anti-involution" policy is effectively guiding industry expansion towards leading firms with technological and scale advantages, moving away from blind expansion [2][8]. Supply Chain and Pricing - The lithium battery supply chain is expected to see a collective price increase of over 10% due to tight supply and rising upstream material costs [11][12]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is projected to stabilize above 120,000 yuan/ton, with potential peaks exceeding 150,000 yuan/ton [11][12]. Production Capacity - The lithium battery industry is entering a third round of expansion, with new effective production capacity expected to exceed 700 GWh in 2026, primarily concentrated among top manufacturers [9]. - The demand for lithium battery equipment is anticipated to grow significantly, with market demand exceeding 65 billion yuan [9]. Emerging Technologies - Solid-state battery shipments are projected to exceed 15 GWh, driven by advancements in core materials and processes, although mass production remains a challenge [14]. - Sodium-ion battery shipments are expected to double to over 10 GWh, with the NFPP route dominating the market due to its cost-effectiveness and performance advantages [16][17]. IPO Trends - 2026 is expected to see a surge in IPO applications from lithium battery industry players, particularly in materials, equipment, and energy storage integration sectors [15]. - Companies with strong technological advantages and binding relationships with major clients are likely to accelerate their IPO processes [15].

Global Energy Storage Battery Shipment Analysis and Forecast - The report from Qidian Research Institute SPIR indicates that global energy storage battery shipments are projected to reach 358 GWh in 2024 and 637 GWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 77.93%. By 2030, shipments are expected to reach 2380 GWh. The main drivers for this growth include the transition in the global energy structure towards renewable energy sources like solar and wind, which increases the demand for energy storage batteries [2][3] - The demand for energy storage on the grid side is also expected to grow rapidly due to the increasing need for stability and flexibility in power systems, especially with the large-scale integration of renewable energy sources. Grid-side storage can effectively balance power supply and demand fluctuations, enhancing system stability [2] Market Concentration and Competitive Landscape - By 2025, the concentration ratio (CR6) of the energy storage cell industry is expected to reach around 50%, indicating a highly concentrated competitive landscape characterized by "one strong player and many strong challengers" along with emerging dark horses. CATL remains the leader, while companies like Chuangneng New Energy have rapidly entered the top five within four years [6] - Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) has become the dominant choice for energy storage cells, holding over 90% of the global market share. The ability to innovate in storage technology and control costs has become a significant competitive barrier for leading companies. The industry is anticipated to undergo a deep reshuffling period in the next two years, where technological innovation and scale advantages will be crucial for companies aiming to emerge as dark horses [8] Top 20 Energy Storage Battery Suppliers in China for 2025 - According to Qidian Research Institute SPIR, the top 20 energy storage cell suppliers in China for 2025 include CATL, EVE Energy, Chuangneng New Energy, Zhongchuang Innovation, Ruipu Lanjun, BYD, Guoxuan High-Tech, Penghui Energy, Rongjie Energy, Ganfeng Lithium, Zhongtian Energy, Xinwanda, Desay Battery, Haishida, Lishen Battery, Trina Storage, Kunyu Power, Nandu Power, Dufeng New Energy, and Xinneng An [9]

Core Insights - BYD has achieved the title of the global champion in pure electric vehicle sales for 2025, with total sales of 4.602 million new energy vehicles, including approximately 2.257 million pure electric vehicles, marking a year-on-year growth of 27.86% [1] - The competition in the electric vehicle market is significant, as BYD has surpassed Tesla, which has been traditionally viewed as the leader in the electric vehicle sector [1] - The success of BYD is not only a personal victory but also a representation of the strength of Chinese manufacturing in the global market, particularly in the automotive sector [2] Industry Overview - The automotive industry requires a high level of integration across various segments, including batteries, electric motors, and artificial intelligence, making BYD's achievement particularly noteworthy [2] - BYD's new energy vehicle business has expanded globally, reaching 119 countries and regions, becoming a mainstream choice for consumers in key markets such as South America and Asia-Pacific [2] - Other Chinese automakers like Chery, Geely, and SAIC have also shown significant performance in overseas markets, highlighting the collective strength of Chinese automotive manufacturers [2] Future Outlook - The competition in pure electric vehicles will focus on further optimization of "three electric" technologies (batteries, electric motors, and electronic control) and advancements in intelligent driving technologies [3] - Chinese automakers are currently leading in these areas, suggesting that future victories in the electric vehicle market may become more routine and less sensational [3]

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the electric vehicle market is intensifying as Chinese automakers enter the Japanese market, posing a significant challenge to traditional Japanese car manufacturers like Toyota and Honda [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Chinese companies such as BYD, Geely, and GAC are planning to export electric vehicles to Japan, indicating a strategic shift towards international markets due to shrinking domestic profit margins [1] - Japanese automakers are accelerating the launch of new or revamped models in response to the competitive threat from Chinese firms [1] Group 2: Industry Response - Toyota, Nissan, and Suzuki are actively working on new electric vehicle models, while Honda has developed a pure electric light vehicle [1] - Suzuki's president, Toshihiro Suzuki, has expressed a welcoming attitude towards the entry of Chinese automakers, emphasizing the potential for mutual stimulation and healthy competition [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the recovery of the UK new car market, with sales surpassing 2 million units for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, driven primarily by the rising demand for electric vehicles (EVs) [1] - The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported that approximately 2.02 million new cars were registered in the UK last year, marking a 3.5% increase from 2024, but still below the 2.31 million units sold in 2019 [1] - The market growth is significantly attributed to the increasing market share of Chinese brands, which rose to 12.8% in the UK EV market, up from 8.5% in 2024 [1] Group 2 - Chinese automakers, including BYD and Chery, are actively expanding in the UK market, benefiting from the absence of higher import tariffs on Chinese-made EVs compared to other European regions [3] - The sales of new cars from Chinese brands are expected to double in 2025, exceeding 196,000 units, as more affordable EVs and hybrid models are introduced [3] - Despite the popularity of Chinese EVs, SMMT's CEO Mike Hawes warned that the growth outlook for EV sales remains "fragile" [3] Group 3 - The UK has set a regulatory requirement for a certain percentage of new car sales to be zero-emission vehicles, increasing from 28% in 2025 to 33% in 2026, and reaching 80% by 2030, with penalties for non-compliance [4] - In December, the market share of EVs in the UK surged to 32%, marking the only month where sales exceeded the government's 2025 target of 28% [4] - Analysts noted that the UK government had lowered some related targets, including reducing penalties, which may prevent manufacturers from facing fines for not meeting last year's targets [4] Group 4 - In 2023, Chinese automotive manufacturers achieved a record by becoming the world's largest car exporters, surpassing Japan for the first time [4] - Predictions indicate that Chinese automakers may take the lead in global new car sales by 2025, displacing Japanese manufacturers from their long-held position [4] Group 5 - BYD announced its 2025 sales data, reporting deliveries of 4.6 million vehicles, a 7.7% increase from 2024, with electric vehicle sales growing by 28% to 2.25 million units [5] - Market estimates suggest that Tesla's electric vehicle sales may decline by 8% in 2025 to 1.64 million units, positioning BYD to potentially surpass Tesla and become the largest EV seller globally [5][6] - Tesla barely maintained its global leading position in 2024 with just a 20,000 unit sales margin [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for BYD, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][17]. Core Views - BYD's total sales for the year are projected to reach 4.6 million vehicles, with strong performance from the Fangchengbao model and exports [2][7]. - The target price is set at 113.8 CNY for A-shares and 111.2 HKD for H-shares, reflecting a robust growth outlook despite recent challenges [2][7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Total revenue is expected to grow from 777.1 billion CNY in 2024 to 1,070.5 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.5% [3][8]. - **Net Profit**: Projected net profit is anticipated to decline from 40.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 35.2 billion CNY in 2025, before rebounding to 60.0 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a significant recovery [3][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to decrease from 4.42 CNY in 2024 to 3.86 CNY in 2025, then increase to 6.58 CNY by 2027 [3][8]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to range from 22 in 2024 to 15 in 2027, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 4.8 to 2.6 over the same period [3][8]. Sales Performance - **Sales Breakdown**: In December, BYD sold 134,000 vehicles, with a total of 4.6 million vehicles sold for the year, marking an 8% increase year-on-year [7]. - **Export Growth**: Exports reached 133,000 vehicles in December, representing a 133% increase year-on-year, with a total of 1.05 million vehicles exported for the year [7]. - **Brand Performance**: The Dynasty series sold 188,500 vehicles in 2025, while the Ocean series achieved 222,000 vehicles sold [7]. Market Outlook - **Product Cycle**: A new product cycle is expected to begin in March 2026, with the launch of the upgraded Qin L DM-i model, which is anticipated to enhance market share and brand value [7]. - **Sales Projections**: Future sales are projected to reach 5.27 million vehicles in 2026 and 5.85 million in 2027, with corresponding revenue growth [7].

Core Insights - The European Commission's "2025 EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard" indicates that the total R&D investment of the top 2000 global companies for the 2024 fiscal year reached €1.446 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, slightly higher than in 2023 but below the average growth rate since 2014 [2] Group 1: R&D Investment Overview - A total of 525 Chinese companies made the list, ranking second after the United States (674 companies), and surpassing the European Union (318 companies) and Japan (192 companies) [2] - Chinese companies' total R&D investment amounted to €233.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, while U.S. companies invested €680.8 billion, marking a 7.8% increase [2] Group 2: Industry Focus - U.S. companies' R&D investments are heavily concentrated in information and communication technology (ICT) and healthcare, with 76% of their investment in ICT [3] - Chinese R&D investments are focused on ICT hardware manufacturing and the automotive industry, with notable strengths in construction and industrial engineering [3] Group 3: Global Rankings - Among the top 50 global companies, the U.S. holds 25 spots, with the top five being major tech giants: Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, and Microsoft [4] - Six Chinese companies made it to the top 50, with Huawei ranking sixth globally with an R&D investment of €22.94 billion, the only Chinese company in the top ten [4] - Other notable Chinese companies include Tencent (20th), Alibaba (31st), BYD (37th), and TSMC from Taiwan (41st) [4] Group 4: Trends and Future Outlook - The report highlights a significant increase in both total R&D investment and its share from Chinese companies, showcasing the rise of China in the global innovation landscape [5] - This trend is expected to drive China's economic transformation and upgrade, injecting new momentum into global technological development [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - BYD's sales for 2025 are expected to increase year-on-year, continuing its push towards high-end products and exports [1] - The company is projected to achieve a total revenue of RMB 839.36 billion in 2025, reflecting an 8.01% year-on-year growth [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 35.01 billion in 2025, representing a decrease of 13.03% compared to the previous year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at RMB 3.84 for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.55 [1] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for BYD from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 602.32 billion - 2024: RMB 777.10 billion - 2025: RMB 839.36 billion - 2026: RMB 962.02 billion - 2027: RMB 1,107.28 billion [1] - Net profit projections for the same period are: - 2023: RMB 30.04 billion - 2024: RMB 40.25 billion - 2025: RMB 35.01 billion - 2026: RMB 50.93 billion - 2027: RMB 66.39 billion [1] - The company expects to maintain a net profit margin of approximately 4.17% in 2025 [9] Sales and Market Performance - BYD's cumulative sales for 2025 are projected to reach 5.52 million units, a 20% increase year-on-year, with exports expected to account for 150,000 to 160,000 units [8] - The company has seen a significant increase in high-end vehicle sales, with December sales reaching 70,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 161% [8] - The company has established overseas production capacity exceeding 300,000 units per year, with factories in Brazil, Thailand, and Uzbekistan already operational [8] Battery and Energy Storage - BYD's battery installation for 2025 is expected to grow by 47%, with external battery supply also experiencing significant growth [8] - The company anticipates battery shipments for energy storage to exceed 50 GWh in 2025 and approximately 80 GWh in 2026 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global lithium resource supply is growing rapidly, and it is expected to reach 2.09 million tons of LCE in 2026, a year - on - year increase of about 24.4%. The supply - demand relationship in the lithium carbonate market is evolving from "oversupply" to "tight balance" and even "structural shortage." [1][3] - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow explosively, with the global energy - storage shipment and installation volume expected to increase by 51% and 60% year - on - year to 930GWh and 480GWh respectively in 2026. The demand for new energy vehicles will grow steadily, with the global sales volume expected to reach 24.45 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12%. [2] - The cost influence in the trading logic of lithium carbonate has significantly decreased, and the price is more sensitive to upward drivers. The average price of lithium carbonate in 2026 is expected to rise further. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Market Review - **Market Price Review**: In 2025, the price of lithium carbonate showed a "V - shaped" rebound, with a continuous decline in the first half of the year and a strong rebound in the second half. The core driver shifted from "oversupply" to "supply - demand mismatch" caused by unexpected energy - storage demand and supply disturbances. [6] - **Fundamental Logic Review**: The "supply - demand mismatch" caused by supply disturbances and the explosion of energy - storage demand led the market to shift from oversupply to balance reversal. The influence of cost logic on prices decreased significantly. [8][13] 3.2 Supply Maintaining Rapid Growth (+24%) - **Lithium Resource Supply Continuously Increasing, Project Release Accelerating Due to Profit Recovery**: The global lithium resource planned production capacity has been accelerating for several years. Although there were disturbances in 2025, the global supply is expected to increase by 24% to 1.61 million tons of LCE. In 2026, it is expected to reach 2.09 million tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of about 24.4%. [19][21] - **Significant Disturbances from Domestic Mines and Anti - involution Policies, Continuous High - growth in Lithium Carbonate Production**: In 2025, China's lithium ore reserves increased significantly. The domestic lithium carbonate smelting production capacity is expected to increase by 38.86% to 1.347 million tons of LCE in 2026. [24] 3.3 Lithium - battery Industry Chain Amplifying Demand Growth Rate - **Significant Growth in Cathode Material Production, Lithium Iron Phosphate Dominating**: In 2025, the production of cathode materials and electrolytes increased significantly. Lithium iron phosphate accounted for more than 80% of the market share, mainly due to the high growth of new energy vehicles and the explosive growth of energy - storage demand. [50] - **Strong Growth in the Lithium - battery Industry, China Dominating Globally**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the global power - battery installation volume increased by 35.5% year - on - year. Chinese battery companies occupied a dominant position globally. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of lithium batteries, with healthy supply - demand relationships and strong export performance. [58][66][67] 3.4 Energy - storage Demand Prospects for Explosive Growth (+51%) - **High - speed Growth in Energy - storage Battery Shipment in 2025**: In 2025, the global energy - storage battery shipment is expected to increase by 65% year - on - year to 610GWh. In 2026, the energy - storage cell shipment is expected to increase by 51% year - on - year to 930GW. [85] - **Energy - storage Entering a Definite High - growth Period**: Driven by policies and market mechanisms, the Chinese energy - storage market is in a high - growth period. Overseas energy - storage orders are also increasing significantly. It is expected that the global energy - storage installation volume will reach 480GWh in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 60%. [92][97][100] 3.5 New Energy Vehicle Demand Growing Steadily (+18%) - **New Energy Vehicle High - growth Reaching an Inflection Point**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China increased significantly. Globally, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 21.65 million, a year - on - year increase of 22%. In 2026, the global sales volume is expected to reach 24.45 million, a year - on - year increase of 12%. [106][109][116] - **High Terminal Demand for Lithium Carbonate**: In 2025, the single - vehicle power consumption of new energy vehicles in China increased significantly, and the demand for lithium carbonate increased by 31.74% year - on - year. In 2026, there will still be a 17.56% year - on - year increase. The current industrial chain inventory is healthy, and the replenishment of the industrial chain will amplify the demand. [120][121] 3.6 Balance and Price Outlook - **Balance**: In 2026, the global lithium resource supply is expected to have a surplus of nearly 80,000 tons, with a surplus rate of 3.9%, and the surplus volume is expected to narrow compared to 2025. In China, there is expected to be a shortage of 55,000 tons of lithium carbonate. [131][133] - **Price**: The cost influence on the lithium carbonate price has decreased significantly. The price is more sensitive to upward drivers and is likely to surge during supply disturbances, industrial chain replenishment, and supply - demand seasonal mismatches. The average price of lithium carbonate in 2026 is expected to rise further. [134]