证券研究报告·公司点评报告·乘用车 比亚迪（002594） 2026 年 1 月销量点评：销量同环比降低，持 续推进高端化和出口 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 602,315 | 777,102 | 839,362 | 887,061 | 990,587 | | 同比（%） | 42.04 | 29.02 | 8.01 | 5.68 | 11.67 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 30,041 | 40,254 | 35,011 | 45,040 | 56,317 | | 同比（%） | 80.72 | 34.00 | (13.03) | 28.65 | 25.04 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.29 | 4.42 | 3.84 | 4.94 | 6.18 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 26.72 | 19.94 | 22.92 | 17.82 | 14.25 | [Ta ...

Group 1 - Anta Sports (82020), Li Ning (82331), and JD Health (86618) have the highest short-selling ratios at 100.00% each [1][2] - BYD Company (01211), Meituan (03690), and Xiaomi Group (01810) lead in short-selling amounts, with 1.896 billion, 1.439 billion, and 0.965 billion respectively [1][2] - Li Ning (82331), Shangmei Group (02145), and Bank of China Hong Kong (82388) have the highest deviation values at 37.55%, 31.60%, and 30.16% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The top short-selling ratio rankings include Anta Sports (82020) at 100.00%, Li Ning (82331) at 100.00%, and JD Health (86618) at 100.00% [2] - The top short-selling amounts are led by BYD Company (01211) at 1.896 billion, Meituan (03690) at 1.439 billion, and Xiaomi Group (01810) at 0.965 billion [2] - The top deviation values are led by Li Ning (82331) at 37.55%, Shangmei Group (02145) at 31.60%, and Bank of China Hong Kong (82388) at 30.16% [2]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·乘用车 比亚迪（002594） 2026 年 1 月销量点评：销量同环比降低，持 续推进高端化和出口 买入（维持） 股价走势 | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 602,315 | 777,102 | 839,362 | 887,061 | 990,587 | | 同比（%） | 42.04 | 29.02 | 8.01 | 5.68 | 11.67 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 30,041 | 40,254 | 35,011 | 45,040 | 56,317 | | 同比（%） | 80.72 | 34.00 | (13.03) | 28.65 | 25.04 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.29 | 4.42 | 3.84 | 4.94 | 6.18 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 26.72 | 19.94 | 22.92 | 17.82 | 14.25 ...

Core Insights - BYD's new car registrations in the European market reached 187,657 units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 268.6% [1] - Chinese automakers are gaining popularity among European consumers due to a diverse product lineup and high cost-performance ratio [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In the EU, BYD's new car registrations grew by 227.8% in 2025, increasing its market share from 0.4% in 2024 to 1.2% [1] - The market share of pure electric vehicles in the EU reached 17.4% in 2025, up from 13.6% the previous year [1] - The market share of hybrid vehicles stood at 34.5%, remaining the preferred choice for EU consumers [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The combined market share of gasoline and diesel vehicles decreased from 45.2% in 2024 to 35.5% in 2025 [1] - In December, the market share of new pure electric vehicle registrations in the EU reached 22.6%, surpassing gasoline vehicles at 22.5% for the first time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market is experiencing a downturn in early 2026, with significant declines in sales and a shift in market dynamics, particularly affecting new energy vehicle (NEV) companies and traditional automakers [4][5][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - In January 2026, the automotive sector saw a decline in stock prices across both Hong Kong and A-shares, with NEV companies experiencing larger drops of 4%-7%, while traditional automakers faced smaller declines of 1%-4% [4]. - The primary reason for the market downturn is attributed to disappointing sales figures in January, which fell short of expectations, alongside a significant drop in international gold prices impacting resource stocks [5][8]. - The overall sales of domestic passenger vehicles decreased by 18.1% year-on-year, while exports surged by 50.5%, providing some support to the market [7]. Group 2: Sales Rankings and Trends - The sales rankings among new energy vehicle manufacturers have shifted, with Xiaomi leading in January 2026, followed by Li Auto and NIO, while traditional automakers like Geely and BYD also showed significant sales figures [10][13][15]. - Geely's sales reached 270,200 units in January, marking a strong performance with both year-on-year and month-on-month growth, while BYD's sales dropped by 30% year-on-year and 50% month-on-month, indicating a significant slowdown [15][17]. - Traditional automakers are showing resilience, with GAC's sales growing by 18.47% year-on-year, highlighting the continued market presence of fuel vehicles amidst the NEV price wars [20]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The automotive industry is predicted to enter a "zero growth" phase in 2026, with expectations of a 20.4% month-on-month decline in January sales and only a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% [30][31]. - Experts suggest that the market will shift from stimulus-driven growth to a more structured approach, with reduced incentives for low-priced NEVs, leading to a more competitive landscape [32]. - The focus on international expansion is expected to become a critical strategy for automakers, as the market adapts to changing consumer demands and competitive pressures [34].

2025年，中国汽车产业在技术与政策驱动下，经历着深刻变革。国家统计局数据显示，2025年我国汽车 产量达3477.86万辆，同比增长10.2%。 华东师范大学城市发展研究院院长曾刚向21世纪经济报道记者表示："2025年我国汽车产业结构优化继 续深化，在全球的竞争力进一步提升，行业格局、竞争模式和增长引擎都发生了巨大变化。以比亚迪、 奇瑞为代表的新能源车企通过技术和海外市场突破实现跃升。而部分转型缓慢的传统车企排名持续下 滑，产业主导权已从传统燃油车转向新能源与智能汽车。" 广东安徽 错位发展 国家统计局数据库显示，2025年，汽车产量前十省份分别是安徽、广东、重庆、山东、江苏、浙江、上 海、陕西、湖南和湖北，产量分别是368.65万、304.02万、278.77万、261.22万、251.99万、225.65万、 177.2万、172.5万、162.62万和151.43万。 广东外语外贸大学广东国际战略研究院执行院长韩永辉向21世纪经济报道记者指出，安徽汽车产量在账 面上超越广东原因有三点：一是统计口径的调整，二是安徽汽车产业的跨越式发展，三是广东汽车产业 进一步优化调整。 韩永辉介绍，统计口径调整是安徽 ...

2025年，中国汽车产业在技术与政策驱动下，经历着深刻变革。国家统计局数据显示，2025年我国汽车 产量达3477.86万辆，同比增长10.2%。 汽车产业作为国民经济的支柱产业，其区域格局的变迁，映射着中国制造业的转型升级之路。 值得注意的是，自2025年起，国家统计局对汽车产量的统计方式发生重要调整，将统计原则从沿用多年 的按"企业法人所在地"改为按"生产地"计算。以比亚迪为例，比亚迪在外地工厂生产的汽车，不再计入 总部所在地深圳的产量数据，而是计入实际生产地的产量。这一调整使得汽车产业格局发生了变化。 2025年，有16个省份汽车产量突破100万辆，比2024年多出4个（湖南、河南、四川、江西）。其中，湖 南、河南排名上升幅度较大，前者由第18位跳至第9位，后者由第17位升至第11位。 广东外语外贸大学广东国际战略研究院执行院长韩永辉向21世纪经济报道记者指出，安徽汽车产量在账 面上超越广东原因有三点：一是统计口径的调整，二是安徽汽车产业的跨越式发展，三是广东汽车产业 进一步优化调整。 韩永辉介绍，统计口径调整是安徽产量跃居首位的重要原因。2025年起国家统计局实施"法产并重"改 革，将汽车产量由原按企 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,954.92, up by 179.35 points or 0.67% as of February 2, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index reached a high of 27,021.10 and a low of 26,800.30 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 40.725 million shares [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 139.961, increasing by 3.91% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 595.694, down by 0.47% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] Stock Price Movements - Tencent Holdings: Latest price HKD 598.500, down by HKD 7.500 or 1.24% [3] - Alibaba Group: Latest price HKD 163.300, down by HKD 5.900 or 3.49% [3] - HSBC Holdings: Latest price HKD 134.700, down by HKD 1.900 or 1.39% [3] - AIA Group: Latest price HKD 89.050, down by HKD 1.300 or 1.44% [3] - Meituan: Latest price HKD 94.850, down by HKD 2.350 or 2.42% [3] - BYD Company: Latest price HKD 91.000, down by HKD 6.750 or 6.91% [3] - Kuaishou Technology: Latest price HKD 77.000, down by HKD 3.150 or 3.93% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Anhui Province is rapidly developing its automotive industry, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, aiming for a production target of 3.6865 million vehicles by 2025, with 1.7941 million being electric vehicles, both leading the nation [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Development - The automotive industry in Anhui has grown significantly, with production increasing from 1.161 million vehicles in 2020 to a projected 3.6865 million in 2025, moving from eighth to first in national rankings [3][4]. - The province has attracted seven major vehicle manufacturers and over 3,000 automotive parts companies, with total revenue from the automotive industry expected to exceed 1.5 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a growth of over 20% for two consecutive years [5][6]. Group 2: Government Support and Investment - The local government has played a crucial role in supporting the automotive industry, exemplified by a 7 billion yuan investment in NIO to stabilize its funding and attract other manufacturers like BYD and Volkswagen [5][6]. - The establishment of the "Automobile Office" by the Anhui Provincial Development and Reform Commission aims to provide comprehensive support for the automotive industry, enhancing market efficiency [6]. Group 3: Collaborative Innovation - A framework agreement was signed among major local car manufacturers, including Chery and NIO, to promote collaborative innovation in vehicle and key component development, resource sharing, and localized chip development [9]. - Chery has established a global network of R&D centers and invests approximately 20 billion yuan annually in research, focusing on engine efficiency and innovation [10].

New Car Launches - The new BJ40 range-extended version has been launched at a price of 279,800 yuan [2] - The new BJ40 features a rugged design with custom paint and off-road enhancements, including a total length of 4861mm, width of 2065mm, height of 2110mm, and a wheelbase of 2760mm [4] - The vehicle is equipped with a 138kW 1.5T range extender and dual motors with a total power of 403kW, paired with a 40.3kWh lithium battery, offering a pure electric range of 150km [8][10] - BYD's new flagship models, the Seal 08 sedan and the Sea Lion 08 SUV, have been recently revealed [11] Company Dynamics - General Motors projects a revenue of $185 billion for 2025, a year-on-year decline of 1.3%, with a net profit of $2.7 billion, significantly down from $6 billion in 2024 [14][15] - Tesla anticipates delivering 1.6363 million vehicles in 2025, a 9% decrease year-on-year, with total revenues declining for the first time [23][25] - Toyota expects global sales of 11.3 million vehicles in 2025, marking a 4.6% increase year-on-year, maintaining its position as the world's largest automaker [26][27] - Zotye Auto forecasts a net loss of 281 to 417 million yuan for 2025, a significant reduction from a previous loss of 1 billion yuan [30][31] Domestic News - A mandatory national standard for automotive steering systems has been released, effective July 1, which clarifies technical requirements and testing methods for new technologies [34][35] - The number of new energy vehicles in China has reached 43.97 million, with pure electric vehicles accounting for 30.22 million [38] - China is projected to export 8.32 million vehicles in 2025, a 30% increase year-on-year, with 3.43 million of those being new energy vehicles, reflecting strong competitiveness [39][41] - The country plans to add over 10,000 charging guns in service areas to enhance the convenience of charging for new energy vehicles [44][46] Vehicle Sales - BYD sold 205,518 passenger vehicles in January, maintaining its lead in the new energy vehicle market [47][51] - Geely's total sales reached 270,167 units in January, with 124,252 units being new energy vehicles [52][55] - NIO delivered 27,182 vehicles in January, with the ES8 model achieving significant sales [69][72]