Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao [1][10] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 156.17 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.37 billion RMB, up 95.2% year-on-year [4][6] - The significant growth in performance is attributed to increased sales volumes and prices of aluminum and alumina, alongside a decrease in procurement costs for coal and anodes [6] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of nearly 63% and a dividend yield of approximately 10.7% [6][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, aluminum alloy product sales were approximately 5.837 million tons, up 1.5% year-on-year, with a unit price of 17,550 RMB/ton, a 6.6% increase, and a unit cost of 13,233 RMB/ton, down 2.7%, leading to a unit gross profit of 4,317 RMB/ton, up 50.8% [6] - Alumina sales reached about 10.921 million tons, a 5.3% increase, with a unit price of 3,420 RMB/ton, up 33.6%, and a unit cost of 2,208 RMB/ton, down 2.9%, resulting in a unit gross profit of 1,212 RMB/ton, up 324.7% [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 156.65 billion RMB, 162.26 billion RMB, and 166.81 billion RMB, with growth rates of 0.3%, 3.6%, and 2.8% respectively [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 25.21 billion RMB, 27.52 billion RMB, and 30.02 billion RMB for the same years, with growth rates of 13%, 9%, and 9% respectively [9] Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a current P/E ratio of 5.23 for 2025, decreasing to 4.39 by 2027, reflecting the company's strong earnings growth potential [9][10] - The projected ROE remains stable at around 22% for the next few years, indicating consistent profitability [10]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in FY24 net profit attributable to shareholders, rising by 95.2% to 22.372 billion RMB, driven by higher product prices and lower raw material costs [1][4]. - The average selling prices for aluminum alloy products, alumina products, and aluminum alloy processing products increased by 6.6%, 33.6%, and 2.5% respectively, contributing to improved gross margins [1][8]. - The company has adopted an integrated business model that encompasses upstream, midstream, and downstream operations, ensuring stable production and profit margins [3]. - The dividend per share for FY24 was 1.61 HKD, with a dividend payout ratio increasing from 56.0% in FY23 to 73.3% in FY24, resulting in an attractive dividend yield of 10.7% [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY24 revenue reached 156.169 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 16.9% compared to FY23 [5][8]. - Gross profit increased by 101.2% to 42.163 billion RMB, with gross margin improving from 15.7% to 27.0% [8]. - Operating profit rose by 94.8% to 33.299 billion RMB, with net profit after tax increasing by 96.4% to 24.546 billion RMB [8]. Market Demand - The demand for aluminum products is primarily driven by sectors such as construction, electronics, transportation, and durable consumer goods, accounting for approximately 75% of national electrolytic aluminum consumption [2]. - Factors such as ongoing infrastructure development, improvements in the real estate sector, and the growth of the new energy vehicle market are expected to boost aluminum product demand [2]. Business Model - The company's integrated business model includes upstream operations (bauxite, energy, alumina), midstream (electrolytic aluminum), and downstream (aluminum alloy processing), which helps ensure production stability and profit margins [3]. - The utilization of clean energy sources like hydropower and photovoltaics in production lines supports the company's "dual carbon" strategy and cost reduction efforts [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in FY24 net profit attributable to shareholders, rising by 95.2% to 22.372 billion RMB, driven by higher product prices and lower raw material costs [1][4]. - The average selling prices for aluminum alloy products, alumina products, and aluminum alloy processing products increased by 6.6%, 33.6%, and 2.5% respectively, contributing to improved gross margins [1][8]. - The company has adopted an integrated business model that encompasses upstream, midstream, and downstream operations, ensuring stable production and profit margins [3]. - The dividend per share for FY24 was 1.61 HKD, with the payout ratio increasing from 56.0% in FY23 to 73.3% in FY24, resulting in an attractive dividend yield of 10.7% [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY24 revenue reached 156.169 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 16.9% compared to FY23 [5][8]. - The gross margin improved from 15.7% to 27.0%, supported by rising selling prices and declining raw material costs [1][8]. - Operating profit for FY24 was 33.299 billion RMB, marking a 94.8% increase year-on-year [8]. Market Demand - The demand for aluminum products is primarily driven by sectors such as construction, electronics, transportation, and durable consumer goods, accounting for approximately 75% of national electrolytic aluminum consumption [2]. - Factors such as ongoing infrastructure development, improvements in the real estate sector, and the growth of the new energy vehicle market are expected to boost aluminum product demand [2]. Business Model - The company's integrated business model includes upstream operations (bauxite, energy, alumina), midstream (electrolytic aluminum), and downstream (aluminum alloy processing), which helps ensure production stability and profit margins [3]. - The utilization of clean energy sources like hydropower and photovoltaics in production lines supports the company's "dual carbon" strategy and cost reduction efforts [3].

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao has announced a significant increase in its dividend for 2024, reflecting strong financial performance and a commitment to high shareholder returns [1][5] Financial Performance - In 2024, China Hongqiao achieved revenue of 156.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, with gross profit reaching 42.16 billion yuan, up 101.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.37 billion yuan, representing a 95.2% increase year-on-year, with gross margin and net profit margin improving to 27% and 14.33% respectively [1] - The company's return on equity (ROE) reached a historical high of 20.75%, an increase of 8.33 percentage points year-on-year [1] Dividend Strategy - The board declared a final dividend of 1.02 HKD per share, leading to a total annual dividend of 1.61 HKD per share, a remarkable increase of 156% year-on-year, marking a historical high [1] - The company maintains a strong cash position with cash equivalents amounting to 44.77 billion yuan as of December 2024, supporting its high dividend policy [1] Product Performance - China Hongqiao's three core product lines experienced volume and price increases, contributing to stable revenue growth [2] - Revenue from aluminum alloy products was 102.43 billion yuan, up 8.23%, while aluminum processing products and alumina revenues increased by 35.4% and 40.64% respectively [2] - The overall gross margin for the company's products was approximately 27%, an increase of 11.3 percentage points year-on-year, with specific margins for aluminum alloy, aluminum processing, and alumina products improving significantly [3] Market Demand and Strategy - Global primary aluminum production and consumption showed stable growth, with China accounting for a significant share of the market [3] - The company is focused on high-quality development, emphasizing long-term strategies and innovation, while enhancing operational efficiency through digital transformation [3] - China Hongqiao is actively pursuing ESG initiatives and has received recognition for its efforts in sustainable development and resource recycling [4] Shareholder Returns and Market Outlook - The company has a history of returning value to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with an average payout ratio of 44.4% since 2007 [5] - Analysts have a positive outlook on the company, with a target price increase to 17.7 HKD per share, reflecting confidence in its business model and dividend policy [5] - The stock has shown significant price appreciation, with a 113.43% increase in 2024 and a continued upward trend into 2025, while maintaining an attractive dividend yield of nearly 6% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) [2][6] Core Views - The company has demonstrated robust performance with a significant increase in net profit by 95.2% year-on-year for 2024, driven by rising sales and decreasing raw material costs [6][7] - The company is positioned well in the market with a high dividend yield of approximately 11%, reflecting its strong long-term investment value [6][7] - The supply-demand dynamics for electrolytic aluminum are favorable, with limited supply growth and increasing demand from sectors like new energy vehicles [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 133,624 million RMB - 2024: 156,169 million RMB - 2025E: 153,099 million RMB - 2026E: 158,004 million RMB - 2027E: 158,736 million RMB - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 11,461 million RMB - 2024: 22,372 million RMB - 2025E: 21,869 million RMB - 2026E: 24,585 million RMB - 2027E: 25,293 million RMB - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2023: 1.21 RMB - 2024: 2.36 RMB - 2025E: 2.31 RMB - 2026E: 2.60 RMB - 2027E: 2.67 RMB [6][7] Key Events - The company announced a final dividend for 2024, with a total payout of 161 HKD cents per share, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [6][7] - The report highlights a decrease in coal prices, which has positively impacted the company's cost structure, leading to improved profitability [6][7]

假设可换股债券按每股初步换股价20.88港元及按固定汇率获悉数兑换，可换股债券将兑换为约1.12 亿股换股股份(可予调整)，相当于(i)公司于本公告日期的已发行股本约1.2%，及(ii)公司经发行该等1.12 亿股换股股份扩大的已发行股本约1.2%(假设公司已发行股本并无其他变动)。 可换股债券发行的估计所得款项总额将约为3亿美元，而(经扣除相关开支后)可换股债券发行的所 得款项净额估计约为2.95亿美元。公司拟将可换股债券发行的所得款项净额用作为现有境外债项再融资 及一般公司用途。 中国宏桥：建议发行3亿美元于2030年到期的1.50厘 可换股债券及同步回购 中国宏桥(01378)发布公告，于2025年3月17日(交易时段后)，公司及附属公司担保人与联席牵头经 办人订立可换股债券认购协议，据此，公司已同意发行，而联席牵头经办人已同意(各自而非共同)尽力 认购及支付或促使认购及支付可换股债券。可换股债券将按初步本金额3亿美元发行。初步换股价(可予 调整)为20.88港元，较股份于2025年3月17日(可换股债券认购协议日期)在联交所所报收市价每股15.10港 元溢价约38.3%。 在发售可换股债券的同时，联席 ...

假设可换股债券按每股初步换股价20.88港元及按固定汇率获悉数兑换，可换股债券将兑换为约1.12亿股 换股股份(可予调整)，相当于(i)公司于本公告日期的已发行股本约1.2%，及(ii)公司经发行该等1.12亿股 换股股份扩大的已发行股本约1.2%(假设公司已发行股本并无其他变动)。 可换股债券发行的估计所得款项总额将约为3亿美元，而(经扣除相关开支后)可换股债券发行的所得款 项净额估计约为2.95亿美元。公司拟将可换股债券发行的所得款项净额用作为现有境外债项再融资及一 般公司用途。 在发售可换股债券的同时，联席牵头经办人可促使可换股债券买方(并非公司"关连人士"的有关人士)出 售名义上与可换股债券相关的现有股份，而有关买方希望于有担保卖空中出售相关股份("同步股本发 售")及公司将购买于同步股本发售中出售的部分股份("同步股份回购")。公司预期购买2054.8万股股份 作为同步股份回购的一部分，购买价为每股14.60港元。 中国宏桥(01378)：建议发行3亿美元于2030年到期 的1.50厘可换股债券及同步回购 智通财经APP讯，中国宏桥(01378)发布公告，于2025年3月17日(交易时段后)，公司及 ...

上 市 公 司 有色金属 2025 年 03 月 17 日 中国宏桥 (01378) ——全球一体化布局完备，业绩稳健的高股息标的 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 15.06 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8877.99 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 15.38/6.91 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,425.26 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 9,463.89 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0834 | 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -3% 47% 97% 147% HSCEI 中国宏桥 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A02305230 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported its best historical performance for the year 2024, achieving a revenue of 156.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.37 billion yuan, up 95.2% year-on-year [1]. - The increase in net profit is attributed to the simultaneous rise in both volume and price of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, along with a decrease in raw material procurement prices compared to the same period in 2023 [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from high aluminum prices due to low global inventory and rigid domestic supply, with further price increases anticipated alongside a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a rise in green aluminum usage in the new energy sector [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved electrolytic aluminum sales of 5.837 million tons, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, and alumina sales of 10.921 million tons, up 5.3% year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price for electrolytic aluminum was 17,550 yuan per ton, a 6.6% increase year-on-year, while alumina's selling price rose by 33.6% to 3,420 yuan per ton [2]. - The gross margin for electrolytic aluminum improved to 24.6%, up 7.2 percentage points year-on-year, and for alumina, it reached 35.4%, an increase of 24.3 percentage points [2]. Cost Structure and Market Dynamics - The decline in coal prices has led to improved power generation costs, which is expected to enhance the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum segment [3]. - As of February 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is around 44 million tons, nearing the capacity ceiling of 45 million tons, indicating a rigid supply situation [3]. - The demand recovery is anticipated to tighten supply further, supporting high aluminum prices in the long term [3]. Future Projections - The report projects that the company will achieve net profits of 21.4 billion yuan, 24.2 billion yuan, and 26.9 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 6.7, 5.9, and 5.3 times [4][5]. - The company is positioned as a leading integrated aluminum enterprise, with significant cost advantages and potential for rapid growth through overseas expansion and deep integration with upstream and downstream partners [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved its best historical performance in 2024, with revenue of 156.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.37 billion yuan, up 95.2% year-on-year [1]. - The increase in net profit is primarily due to the simultaneous rise in both volume and price of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, along with a decrease in raw material procurement prices compared to the same period in 2023 [1]. - The report anticipates that aluminum prices will remain high due to low global inventory and rigid domestic supply, with potential further increases in pricing driven by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a rise in green aluminum usage [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company sold 5.837 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, and 10.921 million tons of alumina, a 5.3% increase year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price for electrolytic aluminum was 17,550 yuan/ton, up 6.6% year-on-year, while alumina's selling price was 3,420 yuan/ton, up 33.6% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin for electrolytic aluminum increased by 7.2 percentage points to 24.6%, and for alumina, it rose by 24.3 percentage points to 35.4% [2]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The decline in coal prices has improved power generation costs, with a reduction of 86 yuan/ton in coal prices leading to a decrease of 377.3 yuan in the cost of producing one ton of electrolytic aluminum [3]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is becoming rigid, with production capacity nearing 44 million tons, which, combined with recovering demand, is expected to support high aluminum prices [3]. Future Projections - The report projects net profits for the company to be 21.4 billion yuan in 2025, 24.2 billion yuan in 2026, and 26.9 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 6.7, 5.9, and 5.3, respectively [4][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from its integrated cost advantages and overseas expansion, leading to significant growth [4].