Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that with the continuous destocking of aluminum chain and aluminum processing products, primary aluminum prices are expected to maintain an upward trend, and leading companies may exhibit higher profit elasticity [1] - In the short term, there is no favorable demand side, while in the medium term, investment should focus more on supply-side logic [1] - The current overall dividend yield of the sector remains attractive compared to other dividend assets, suggesting a focus on China Hongqiao (01378) [1] Group 2 - Long-term stable low-cost electricity supply is a hard constraint for the domestic and international electrolytic aluminum industry [2] - Although overseas energy costs have been at a low level in recent years, there may be significant upward risks in the future [2] - The electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to maintain a good supply-demand pattern in the medium term [2] Group 3 - The stability of the supply-demand pattern is expected to enhance the stability of future industry profits [3] - Continuous decline in capital expenditure within the electrolytic aluminum industry is likely to lead to sustained improvements in the balance sheets of listed companies, ultimately reflecting in increased dividends and buybacks [3] - Major listed companies in the electrolytic aluminum sector are projected to have dividend yields close to 6% [3]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of July 3, a total of 120 stocks reached their 52-week highs, indicating a strong market performance with notable leaders in the list [1]. Group 1: Top Performers - The top three stocks with the highest increase rates are: - 富誉控股 (Fuyou Holdings) at 90.76%, closing at 0.435 with a peak of 0.475 [1] - 信义能源 (Xinyi Energy) at 65.00%, closing at 1.200 with a peak of 1.980 [1] - 中国三三传媒 (China San San Media) at 42.86%, closing at 1.710 with a peak of 1.900 [1] Group 2: Additional Notable Stocks - Other notable stocks include: - ITE HOLDINGS at 34.21% increase, closing at 0.047 with a peak of 0.051 [1] - 星凯控股 (Xingkai Holdings) at 30.00%, closing at 0.480 with a peak of 0.650 [1] - 北京北辰实业股份 (Beijing Beichen Industrial) at 26.47%, closing at 0.940 with a peak of 1.290 [1] Group 3: Overall Market Trends - The overall trend shows a significant number of stocks achieving new highs, reflecting positive investor sentiment and market conditions [1].

Summary of China Hongqiao Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Hongqiao - **Key Assets**: Electrolytic aluminum and alumina assets under Shandong Hongtu Industrial, excluding bauxite mines and self-owned power plants [2][4] Core Insights and Arguments - **Profit Contribution**: In 2024, Shandong Hongtu is expected to contribute approximately 18 billion yuan to China Hongqiao's net profit, making it the main profit source [2][5] - **Profit Stability in 2025**: Despite a decline in alumina prices impacting profits by about 6 billion yuan, a decrease in coal prices is expected to offset this loss, contributing an additional 1.6 billion yuan to profits [2][6] - **Price Sensitivity**: - A 1,000 yuan increase in aluminum prices results in a 3.7 billion yuan increase in net profit [2][7] - A 100 yuan decrease in coal prices increases net profit by 1.6 billion yuan [2][7] - **Energy Market Impact**: Fluctuations in energy prices significantly affect China Hongqiao's profitability. Lower energy prices enhance competitiveness by reducing self-generated electricity costs [9][10] Additional Important Points - **Debt Issuance**: China Hongqiao has seen a decline in bond issuance rates, with one-year bonds dropping from 4% to 2.1% since 2024, indicating increased investor confidence [3] - **Location Advantage**: The company benefits from its location in Binzhou, where direct transportation of imported bauxite reduces costs by approximately 300 yuan per ton of alumina [11][12] - **Future Capacity Expansion**: The Yunnan project aims to establish China Hongqiao as the world's largest hydropower aluminum producer, with a planned capacity of 3.96 million tons [13] - **Capital Expenditure**: For 2025, capital expenditure is projected at around 12 billion yuan, maintaining previous levels, with significant investments in Yunnan and solar projects [14] - **Dividend Policy**: China Hongqiao maintains a high dividend payout ratio, consistently above 50%, with an expected yield of 8%-9% in 2024 [15] - **West Mangdu Iron Mine Project**: This project is expected to contribute an additional 1.5 billion yuan to profits annually once operational [16]

Group 1: Company Overview - China Hongqiao (01378) is a leading integrated electrolytic aluminum producer with significant advantages in resource layout and high self-sufficiency in alumina and electricity [1] - The company has a prominent cost advantage due to the low price of thermal coal and a decreasing dependence on imported bauxite [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company expects a 35% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting approximately 135.1 billion RMB compared to 100.1 billion RMB in the first half of 2024 [2] - The increase in profit is attributed to higher sales prices and volumes of alloy and alumina products, along with reduced electricity costs due to falling thermal coal prices [2] Group 3: Cost Structure - As of June 24, 2025, the average price of thermal coal has decreased by 22% year-on-year, leading to a reduction in self-generated electricity costs and electrolytic aluminum production costs [3] - The company's self-generated electricity rate is 46%, and the ongoing decline in coal prices is expected to further enhance its cost advantages [3] Group 4: Dividend Policy - The company declared a final dividend of 0.102 HKD per share for 2024, with a total annual dividend of 0.161 HKD per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of approximately 63% and a dividend yield of about 11% [4] - The company has consistently paid dividends since its listing in 2011, with a stable payout ratio above 47% over the past five years, indicating strong long-term investment value [4] Group 5: Market Dynamics - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its limit, while overseas supply growth is slow, leading to a constrained supply outlook [5] - Demand from the electric vehicle and power sectors is expected to offset the decline in real estate demand, resulting in a favorable long-term supply-demand balance for electrolytic aluminum [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][7][17] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately RMB 135.1 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35% compared to RMB 100.1 billion in the first half of 2024 [7] - The growth in profit is attributed to higher sales prices and increased sales volume of aluminum alloy and alumina products, along with a decrease in coal prices leading to lower electricity costs [7] - The company has a high dividend yield of approximately 11%, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 60% for the year 2024, indicating strong long-term investment value [7] - The supply-demand dynamics in the aluminum market are favorable, with domestic production capacity nearing its limit and demand from sectors like new energy vehicles expected to grow [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 133,624 million - 2024: RMB 156,169 million - 2025E: RMB 152,307 million - 2026E: RMB 158,018 million - 2027E: RMB 158,736 million [6][8] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 11,461 million - 2024: RMB 22,372 million - 2025E: RMB 22,419 million - 2026E: RMB 24,585 million - 2027E: RMB 25,293 million [6][8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 2.41 for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.8 [6][8]

Group 1 - HSBC reports that China Hongqiao (01378) expects a net profit growth of approximately 35% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, exceeding the bank's previous expectations [1] - The growth is attributed to an increase in both sales prices and volumes of aluminum alloy and alumina products, leading to higher gross margins [1] - HSBC maintains a "Buy" rating on China Hongqiao, raising the target price from HKD 17.10 to HKD 18.50 [1] Group 2 - For the second half of 2025, HSBC believes the aluminum industry's fundamentals remain robust, supported by a production capacity cap of 45 million tons, ongoing "old-for-new" subsidies, strong grid investments, and growth in electric vehicle sales [2] - However, there are concerns about a gradual slowdown in apparent demand growth due to seasonal factors starting from late June [2] - The company may need aluminum prices to continue rising and energy costs to decrease further to achieve profit margin expansion and earnings growth in the second half of 2025, especially after experiencing high alumina prices in Q4 2024 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting an increase in metal prices due to rising interest rate cut expectations [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring copper smelting negotiations, which have reached a critical point with TC/RC set at 0.0 USD/dry ton, indicating ongoing tightness in copper concentrate supply and potential production cuts in the second half of 2025 [8]. - It also notes that domestic aluminum ingot inventories are showing signs of accumulation, but the expectation of interest rate cuts may support aluminum prices moving forward [8]. - The report highlights the strong performance of specific companies, such as China Hongqiao, which is expected to see a 35% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by higher sales prices and volumes of aluminum alloy and alumina products [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector includes 125 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 295.59 billion CNY and a circulating market value of about 257.00 billion CNY [5]. 2. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the sector over the past month, six months, and twelve months has been 9.1%, 15.3%, and 22.7% respectively, indicating a strong upward trend [6]. 3. Copper Industry Insights - The report discusses the copper smelting industry, noting that the TC negotiations have reached 0.0 USD/dry ton, which may lead to increased production pressure in the latter half of 2025 [8]. - It also mentions that copper prices increased by 1.3% in response to these developments and the interest rate cut expectations [8]. 4. Aluminum Industry Insights - The report tracks aluminum inventory levels, indicating a slight increase in domestic aluminum ingot inventories, with a total of 463,000 tons reported [8]. - The report suggests that the aluminum market may face challenges due to seasonal effects but could be supported by the anticipated interest rate cuts [8]. 5. Precious Metals and Small Metals - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector, such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company, as well as small metals like tin and silver, which are expected to see production growth [8].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.17% at 24,284.15 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.07% to 5,341.43 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.47% to 8,762.47 points [2] - The automotive, pharmaceutical, and banking sectors showed weakness, while the metals sector experienced gains [4] Metals Sector Performance - The metals sector saw significant gains, with Jiangxi Copper rising over 7%, Tianqi Lithium and Luoyang Molybdenum both increasing over 6%, and Zijin Mining among the top performers [4] - Notable stock performances included Luoyang Molybdenum at 6.26% with a market cap of 191.02 billion, Tianqi Lithium at 6.78% with a market cap of 56.97 billion, and Ganfeng Lithium at 2.74% with a market cap of 69.64 billion [5] Commodity Price Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts that copper prices will peak at approximately $10,050 per ton by August 2025 due to tightening supply in markets outside the U.S. [5] - Ping An Securities reports that the weakening of the U.S. dollar credit system will continue to drive precious metal prices higher, while industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from a loose monetary environment [5] Automotive Sector Dynamics - Xiaomi Group's stock rose by 3.6%, while major automotive stocks like Xpeng Motors, NIO, and BYD saw declines of 3.17%, 1.84%, and 1.19% respectively [6][7] - Market analysts suggest that the automotive sector may be impacted by Xiaomi's competitive pricing strategy for its new YU7 series, with expectations of monthly sales reaching 60,000 to 80,000 units [7] Banking Sector Trends - Chinese bank stocks experienced slight declines, with Luzhou Bank, Chongqing Bank, and China Merchants Bank dropping by 3.49%, 2.91%, and 2.39% respectively [8] - Recent reports indicate that insurance funds have been favoring high-dividend bank stocks, but this trend may be slowing down as investment teams shift focus towards technology innovation board companies [8] Financial Sector Developments - Huaxing Capital Holdings saw a significant intraday rise of nearly 38% before closing up 4.67% at HKD 4.48 per share, following its announcement of a $100 million investment in the Web 3.0 and cryptocurrency asset space [11] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced an increase in position limits for futures and options contracts on major indices, effective July 2, 2025, aimed at enhancing market flexibility [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, driven by rising aluminum prices and improved sales performance in electrolytic aluminum and alumina products [1][2]. Financial Projections - Projected net profits for China Hongqiao from 2025 to 2027 are 22.759 billion, 26.169 billion, and 28.969 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 1.73%, 14.98%, and 10.70% respectively [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.45, 2.82, and 3.12 yuan per share for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 6.9, 6.0, and 5.4 times [1]. Profit Growth Drivers - The company's net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to increase by approximately 35% year-on-year, reaching around 12.359 billion yuan, following a net profit of 9.155 billion yuan in 2024 [1][2]. - The increase in profit is attributed to higher sales volumes and prices of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, with the average price of electrolytic aluminum rising by 2.51% to 20,297 yuan per ton [2]. Industry Dynamics - The alumina price has significantly decreased in 2025, dropping from 5,683 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 3,175 yuan per ton by June 23, 2025, which may stabilize profits in the alumina segment [3]. - The average profit for alumina in the first half of 2025 is projected to be 302 yuan per ton, a decrease of 430 yuan per ton year-on-year, but the declining trend in alumina prices is expected to slow down [3]. Capacity Expansion - The company is advancing its capacity replacement strategy, with the Yunnan Wenshan project having completed an initial capacity of 1.074 million tons per year and a second phase of 950,000 tons nearing completion [4]. - The Yunnan Honghe project, which began construction in August 2023, is planned to have a capacity of 1.93 million tons per year, with an initial production line expected to be completed by the end of June 2025 [4].

Market Overview - The market experienced a strong performance yesterday but faced a quick decline today, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.61% [1] - UBS warned that the current short squeeze in the US stock market may be nearing its end, with their tracked short squeeze index rising 43% recently [1] - Apollo Global's chief economist predicts a slowdown in US GDP growth to 1.2% by 2025, with inflation remaining around 3% and unemployment potentially rising to 4.4% or higher [1] Economic Indicators - Concerns were raised by Jerome Powell regarding the reliability of economic data collected by US government agencies, suggesting potential overestimations due to budget cuts [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HKD 94.2 billion (approximately RMB 86.13 billion) to support the currency, indicating liquidity tightening in the market [2] Sector Performance - The securities sector failed to maintain its upward momentum, with leading firms like Guotai Junan International seeing a drop of over 4% [3] - The Hong Kong government announced a new policy to promote digital assets, aiming to position the city as a global innovation hub in this field [3] - Consumer sectors are gaining attention, with the "Hong Kong Happy Shopping Festival" set to offer over HKD 1.9 billion in discounts, attracting significant participation from brands [5] Company Developments - Rongchang Bio announced a deal with VorBio for USD 125 million in cash and warrants, but the market reacted negatively, viewing the price as too low [4] - Li Ning's major shareholder has been increasing their stake, which is expected to support the company's operational stability [8] - Li Ning's revenue from running products is projected to grow by 25% in 2024, with core categories like running, basketball, and training accounting for 64% of retail revenue [9] Stock Movements - Stocks in the aviation sector are expected to rise due to increased ticket bookings for the summer travel season, with domestic bookings up about 5% year-on-year [7] - The military sector saw gains following comments from Trump regarding potential conflicts, with companies like China Shipbuilding Defense and AVIC rising over 6% and 1.68% respectively [6] - The weakening US dollar has led to a rise in commodity stocks, with companies like Minmetals Resources and China Hongqiao seeing increases of over 4% [5]