Core Viewpoint - Nayuki Tea is actively exploring new growth paths, focusing on health upgrades and the introduction of light food and beverage products to meet consumer demand for nutrition and health [1][3][4] Product Development - Nayuki Tea launched a "sugar-free natural nutrition" initiative, introducing a series of light food and beverage products that include at least three types of green ingredients to provide essential nutrients [1] - The new Nayuki Green light food store model has opened over 30 locations in major cities, offering all-day service to cater to consumer needs for breakfast, lunch, and afternoon tea [3] - The pricing of Nayuki Green's energy bowls ranges from 23.8 to 28.8 yuan, which is competitive compared to other light food brands [3] Market Positioning - The tea beverage industry is experiencing intense competition, with Nayuki Tea transitioning from a traditional tea model to a focus on light food and beverages, reflecting broader industry trends [3][4] - Nayuki Tea faces challenges in brand recognition and competition within a saturated market, where consumer preferences are shifting towards quality and price [3][4] Industry Trends - The beverage industry is increasingly shifting towards health-oriented products, with major brands like Heytea and Bawang Tea also focusing on health [4] - Nayuki Tea's new store model represents a strategic pivot to find new growth opportunities amid rapid market changes and increased competition from both tea brands and light food restaurants [4]

Group 1 - The new consumption concept in the Hong Kong stock market is gaining strength, with notable increases in share prices for companies like Nayuki's Tea (02150.HK) rising over 3% and Pop Mart (09992.HK) increasing over 1% [1] - Other companies in the sector, such as Miniso (09896.HK) and Cha Bai Dao (02555.HK), also experienced upward movement in their stock prices [1]

Group 1 - A consumer reported finding a whole frog in a tea bag from Nayuki Tea, which led to significant media attention and public outcry [1][2] - The incident occurred on June 21, when the consumer discovered the frog while preparing jasmine tea, and subsequent negotiations with Nayuki resulted in compensation [1][2] - The local market supervision department confirmed that the consumer received 1,000 RMB as compensation, and the consumer has since deleted or hidden related posts on social media platforms [2] Group 2 - Nayuki Tea was founded in 2015 and is known for its "tea + soft European bread" dual-category model, with three main business segments: fresh tea drinks, Nayuki tea, and RTD bottled tea [3] - The company went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 30, 2021, and currently operates over 1,200 stores across nearly 100 major cities in China [3] - The ownership of Nayuki Tea is held by Shenzhen Pindao Catering Management Co., Ltd. [3]

Group 1 - A customer reported finding a whole frog in a cup of jasmine tea from Nayuki, expressing shock and disgust at the experience [2] - The customer mentioned that the frog's body resembled the dried jasmine flowers, making it difficult to detect while brewing [2] - Nayuki's customer service indicated that the issue was related to the tea bag supplier, and they would provide a response after the weekend [2] Group 2 - Nayuki's staff removed the foreign object from the tea in a store and placed it on a tissue for examination [3] - The company stated that they would compensate the customer according to the Food Safety Law [3] - The local market supervision administration has begun to intervene in the matter [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [7] Core Views - The company is undergoing brand upgrades focusing on global expansion, while new business models are still to be validated [2] - The company experienced a revenue decline in 2024, with total revenue of 4.921 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year, and a net loss of 917 million yuan, a significant shift from profit to loss [10] - The company is actively restructuring its store operations and exploring new store formats, including promoting a franchise model and expanding into international markets [10] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is projected at -0.15, -0.12, and 0.00 yuan respectively, with a downward adjustment in revenue and gross margin due to weak downstream demand [4] - The target price for the company is set at 1.33 HKD, based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method [4] - The company’s revenue is expected to recover gradually, with projected revenues of 5.067 billion yuan in 2025, 5.333 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.838 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 3.0%, 5.3%, and 9.5% respectively [6][10] Key Financial Information - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 63.2%, down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of -18.8% [6][10] - The number of direct stores decreased by 121 to 1,453, while franchise stores increased by 264 to 345, indicating a shift towards a franchise model [10] - The company’s total assets are projected to be 6.201 billion yuan in 2025, with total liabilities of 2.568 billion yuan [13]

Group 1: New Tea Beverage Industry Trends - In April 2023, 26 new tea beverage chain brands opened 1,857 new stores, a month-on-month increase of 25.05%, but a year-on-year decrease of 34.22% [1] - The total number of existing stores reached 112,252, with an increase of 1,569 stores compared to the previous month [1] - Despite the increase in store openings compared to March, many brands adopted cautious expansion strategies, with brands like Heytea and Naixue's Tea seeing a 90% reduction in year-on-year openings [1] Group 2: Expansion of Naixue's Tea - Naixue's Tea opened its 8th store in Southeast Asia at CENTRAL FESTIVAL in Chiang Mai, Thailand, generating nearly 3.5 million Thai Baht (approximately 770,000 RMB) in its first month [2] - The store is located in a prime area of a luxury shopping center, attracting over 20,000 visitors daily and offering nearly 50 types of tea and baked goods [2] Group 3: Tea Talk's International Expansion - Tea Talk's first store in Vancouver, Canada, has begun trial operations, selling nearly 1,000 cups in half a day [3] - This store is the brand's sixth in Canada, following five locations in Toronto, and features a menu similar to its domestic offerings [3] - The brand is accelerating its overseas expansion, with plans for stores in the US, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand [3] Group 4: Investment in Traditional Tea Brands - Dongshi Grandma's Handmade Tea completed a multi-million yuan Series B financing round, which will be used for supply chain development, regional market expansion, and product innovation [4] - The brand, established in October 2022, aims to promote Chinese tea culture by blending Taiwanese and Guangxi characteristics [4] Group 5: New Product Launch by Heqi Zheng - Heqi Zheng is set to launch a new series of health waters, including flavors like red date and goji berry water, red bean and barley water, and licorice and dried tangerine peel water [6] - The health water market is competitive, with major brands like Master Kong and Uni-President already established in this space [6] - The market for Chinese health waters has grown from 10 million yuan in 2018 to 450 million yuan in 2023, with expectations to exceed 10 billion yuan by 2028 [6]

User Consumption Scenarios - The two classic consumption scenarios for milk tea are self-drinking and social drinking, with distinct user demands and decision-making processes [3][4][5] - In the self-drinking scenario, users make independent decisions based on personal preferences, while in the social scenario, group dynamics influence brand choices [6][10] - Peak ordering times for milk tea on delivery platforms occur between 14:00 and 16:00, indicating a strong social consumption trend during afternoon breaks [3][6] Competitive Analysis - In the self-drinking scenario, milk tea competes with ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages, with acceptable price ranges for milk tea being 10-15 yuan in urban areas [9][12] - The social scenario presents more complex competition, as users are willing to pay a premium (15-30 yuan) for products that fulfill both physiological and social needs [10][12] - The competition landscape includes not only direct milk tea brands but also RTD beverages and coffee, necessitating a broader analysis of pricing strategies [12][13] Product Structure - Milk tea products can be categorized into two main attributes: product attributes (easily replicable and deliverable) and service attributes (localized and dependent on human interaction) [14][18] - The trend indicates a shift towards product attributes in milk tea, with brands attempting to increase service attributes for higher pricing, though this may limit market reach [19][20] Cultural Context - The relationship between product and culture is complex, with tea and coffee cultures not significantly influencing the milk tea market in China [21][25][28] - Brands emphasizing cultural narratives may limit their appeal to broader consumer bases, as most users prioritize taste over cultural associations [29] Product Extension - Brands are encouraged to focus on internal product extensions (new flavors) rather than external (new product categories) to meet user demands effectively [33][34] - The rapid introduction of new products in the milk tea market reflects intense competition, with brands launching numerous new items to attract consumers [41] User Consumption Habits - Milk tea consumption is characterized by a tendency towards variety-seeking, with users willing to try new flavors and products [40][41] - The market is entering a phase of intense competition, leading to a rapid increase in new product launches as brands strive to maintain consumer interest [41] Brand Collaborations - The trend of frequent brand collaborations (149 instances in 2024) serves to enhance brand visibility and attract new consumer segments [42][43] - Collaborations can activate consumer interest in the milk tea category, particularly in the self-drinking scenario where impulsive purchases are common [49] Brand Case Study: Heytea - Heytea's fluctuating market position reflects challenges in maintaining user value amidst increasing competition and changing consumer preferences [50][53] - The brand's reliance on collaborations and pricing strategies indicates a need to clarify its market positioning to sustain growth [53] Membership and Loyalty Programs - The development of membership programs in the tea beverage market is still in its early stages, with many brands struggling to implement effective loyalty strategies [55][56] - A successful membership model requires a shift from customer acquisition to retention, emphasizing the importance of stable consumer relationships [56] Local Economic Model - The local economic model for milk tea shops focuses on meeting specific consumer needs within a defined area, with delivery services expanding market reach [57][58] - Brands are increasingly adopting strategies to enhance order efficiency and customer service capabilities to compete effectively in the market [58] Market Overlap Analysis - Analysis of store overlap among major brands reveals significant competition dynamics, particularly between brands like Luckin Coffee and Bawang Chaji [63][64] - Understanding the competitive landscape and store proximity can inform strategic decisions for market positioning and expansion [64][65]

Group 1 - The company focuses on a "green health strategy" and is actively exploring new store formats, with plans to open its first light drink and light food store in Shenzhen by March 2025 [1] - The company will optimize existing stores and emphasize the introduction of health products, with a net reduction of 121 direct stores in 2024 and a focus on high-line markets [1] - The company is expanding its overseas business and steadily developing its bottled beverage segment, with bottled beverage revenue reaching 293 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10% [1] Group 2 - The company maintains revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at 5.2 billion, 5.3 billion, and 5.5 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 5.3%, 1.7%, and 3.5% respectively [2] - The company expects net profit for 2025-2027 to be -13 million, 500,000, and 5.6 million yuan, with significant year-on-year growth of 86%, 104%, and 980% respectively [2] - The company maintains an "overweight" rating, considering the ongoing exploration of new models and the potential for future profitability [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is actively adjusting its operational strategy, focusing on a "green health strategy" to enhance brand recognition among consumers and explore new store formats [7] - The company aims to optimize existing stores and introduce new health-focused products, responding to consumer demand for healthier options [7] - The company is expanding its overseas business and steadily developing its bottled beverage segment, with a 10% year-on-year growth in bottled beverage revenue for 2024 [7] - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 5.2 billion, 5.3 billion, and 5.5 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profit expectations of -130 million, 500,000, and 5.6 million yuan [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 5.164 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.33% [1] - The company anticipates a net profit of -917.29 million yuan for 2024, with a significant recovery expected in subsequent years [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.54 yuan in 2024 to 0.03 yuan in 2027 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 342.72 in 2026 and 31.73 in 2027, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nai Xue's Tea has adjusted its breakfast pricing strategy in the Guangzhou and Shenzhen regions, requiring customers to purchase a breakfast card for an additional 9.9 yuan to access the previously priced 9.9 yuan breakfast options [1] Group 1 - The company is currently promoting an upgrade to its breakfast offerings in the Guangzhou and Shenzhen stores [1] - New bagel products have been included in the discounted breakfast combo, providing customers with over 20 breakfast package options at special prices upon activating the breakfast card [1] - The initiative aims to deliver higher value and a more diverse product selection to consumers [1]