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李宁(02331):流水符合预期,短期经营承压
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-22 13:40
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported its Q2 2025 operational data, indicating low single-digit growth in overall channel revenue, a decline in direct sales, low single-digit growth in wholesale, and mid-single-digit growth in e-commerce, with retail performance meeting expectations [5][6]. - Short-term operational pressures are increasing, significantly impacting revenue and gross margin levels, and achieving annual targets will require further effort. Future marketing activities will need to be observed for their growth impact, and there is a need to balance expenses with growth in the short term [6]. - The company is increasing brand promotion spending to seek growth points amid intensifying competition, although the effectiveness of this spending remains to be seen. The operational environment has been under pressure for a prolonged period, but improvements in Nike's operations may gradually alleviate negative industry pressures, potentially allowing the company to restart a healthy upward trajectory, with performance showing high elasticity [6]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 2.39 billion, 2.54 billion, and 2.71 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing year-on-year changes of -21%, +6%, and +7% respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 16, 15, and 14 times [6][10].
国海证券晨会纪要-20250721
Guohai Securities· 2025-07-21 01:33
Summary of Key Points Group 1: Company Performance Highlights - Wan Ye Enterprise expects a net profit of 30 to 40 million yuan for H1 2025, marking a turnaround from losses, with a significant reduction in non-recurring losses [4] - Zhongwei Company anticipates a revenue of 49.61 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 43.88%, with net profit expected to be between 6.8 to 7.3 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 31.61% to 41.28% [8] - Kema Technology projects H1 2025 revenue of 5.15 to 5.25 billion yuan, a growth of 33.93% to 36.53%, with net profit expected to be between 1.65 to 1.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.59% to 25.77% [12] - Tuo Jing Technology forecasts H2 2025 revenue of 12.10 to 12.60 billion yuan, a growth of 52.18% to 58.47%, with net profit expected to double year-on-year [15][16] Group 2: Industry Trends and Insights - The motorcycle industry saw a total sales volume of 8.317 million units in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19% [19] - The medical insurance sector is expected to maintain a stable income and expenditure structure, with basic medical insurance income projected to reach 34.913 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 4.2% [27][28] - The railway equipment sector is entering a high-growth cycle, with a projected net profit increase of 45% to 65% for H1 2025, driven by product volume and price increases [30][31] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The semiconductor industry is witnessing significant growth, with companies like Zhongwei and Tuo Jing expected to benefit from increased demand for advanced manufacturing equipment [10][11] - The photovoltaic sector is undergoing supply-side reforms, with a focus on cost-effective production and advanced capacity selection, indicating potential investment opportunities in leading companies [42][43] - The electric heavy truck market is experiencing a surge, with sales in June 2025 reaching 18,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 158%, suggesting strong growth potential in the commercial vehicle sector [48]
李宁(02331):2025Q2运营点评:2025Q2流水增长环比放缓,期待后续品牌营销
Guohai Securities· 2025-07-20 12:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a low single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales for Q2 2025, with offline channels experiencing a low single-digit decline, while e-commerce virtual store sales grew in the mid-single digits [3][5]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its brand store structure by closing inefficient stores, with a net decrease of 18 retail points in 2025 so far, while expecting improvements in single-store operational efficiency [5][7]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of 1% in 2025, followed by 5% in 2026 and 2027, with net profit expected to decline by 19% in 2025 but recover with 11% and 12% growth in the following years [5][7]. Financial Performance - As of July 18, 2025, the company's current share price is HKD 16.24, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 41,977.33 million [4][8]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 289.3 billion, RMB 303.6 billion, and RMB 318.6 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7]. - The estimated P/E ratios for the company are 16, 14, and 13 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a potential for valuation improvement [5][7].
纺织品和服装行业研究:运动龙头Q2流水稳健;若羽臣H1业绩亮眼
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-20 05:36
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the sports apparel industry, with expectations for continued operational improvement in the second half of 2025 [1][15]. Core Insights - Leading companies in the sports apparel sector demonstrated strong operational resilience in Q2 2025, with Anta Sports and FILA showing steady revenue growth despite market fluctuations [1][11]. - The report highlights the successful multi-brand strategy of Anta Sports, with significant contributions from new brands like Descente and MAIA, while Li Ning is undergoing channel and product adjustments [1][15]. - The overall health of inventory levels is maintained, with a healthy inventory-to-sales ratio of 4-5 months, and companies are optimistic about improving operational data in H2 2025 [1][15]. Summary by Sections Sports Apparel Sector - In Q2 2025, leading companies like Anta Sports and FILA maintained steady revenue growth, while Li Ning experienced low single-digit growth excluding its young brand [1][11]. - Anta's multi-brand matrix continues to perform well, with significant growth from new brands and a focus on professional sports segments [1][15]. - The report notes that companies are leveraging multi-brand operations and event marketing to drive growth, with running shoes seeing higher revenue growth compared to other categories [1][15]. Performance of Ruoyuchen - Ruoyuchen's H1 2025 performance is highlighted, with expected net profit growth of 61.81% to 100.33% year-on-year, driven by its proprietary brand strategy and effective brand management [2][16]. - The launch of the new health product VitaOcean is anticipated to open new growth avenues for the company [2][16]. Industry Data Tracking - June retail sales for apparel showed a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, but a month-on-month decline due to factors like the early 618 shopping festival and adverse weather conditions affecting foot traffic [3][18]. - The report tracks stable raw material prices, with cotton and other materials showing minor fluctuations, indicating a stable supply chain environment [3][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their market positioning and growth potential, including Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Ruoyuchen, highlighting their strategies to adapt to market changes and consumer trends [3][35]. - In the beauty and personal care sector, companies like Juzhibio and Jinbo Biological are recommended for their strong data resilience and upcoming product launches [3][35]. - The gold and jewelry sector is also highlighted, with recommendations for brands like Laopu Gold due to the favorable market conditions driven by rising gold prices [3][35].
国内运动品牌巨头增长放缓,安踏市值是李宁六倍
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-07-19 12:08
Group 1 - Li Ning and Anta both reported a slowdown in growth, with Li Ning's retail performance showing low single-digit growth in Q2 2025 [2][4] - Li Ning's retail points (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) totaled 6099, with a net increase of 11 points in the last quarter but a net decrease of 18 points year-to-date [4] - Anta's core brand achieved mid-single-digit growth, while FILA recorded high single-digit growth, and other brands like DESCENTE and KOLON SPORT saw growth between 60% to 65% [5][8] Group 2 - Anta's retail revenue growth slowed to low single digits from April to June 2025, with FILA maintaining mid-single-digit growth [8] - Anta's total revenue for 2024 reached 708.26 billion yuan, a 13.6% year-on-year increase, and combined with Amer Sports, total revenue surpassed 100 billion yuan for the first time [10] - Non-fan Linyue announced a further acquisition of Li Ning shares, increasing its stake from approximately 11.23% to 12.34% [11]
李宁(02331.HK):营销投入加大 静待体育资源逐步催化业绩增长
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-19 11:28
Group 1: Company Performance - In Q2 2025, the Li Ning brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit revenue growth year-on-year, with offline channels experiencing low single-digit revenue decline, while e-commerce channels saw medium single-digit growth [1] - The company net reduced 18 stores in the first half of the year, with a net decrease of 19 retail stores and an increase of 1 wholesale store [1] - Overall, the company's Q2 performance remained relatively stable despite external environmental disturbances [1] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - The company became a partner of the Chinese Olympic Committee, enhancing its product matrix and brand image through participation in international events, including the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics and the 2026 Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics [1] - The company has begun upgrading its offline store displays to include Olympic-themed elements and launched the "Glory Series" inspired by championship honors [1] Group 3: Sports Resource Development - Chinese player Yang Hanshen was selected 16th overall in the 2025 NBA Draft by the Portland Trail Blazers, becoming the third Chinese player to be a first-round pick [2] - Yang's success and performance in the NBA Summer League are expected to boost the sales of basketball-related products associated with the company [2] - The long-term impact of Yang's influence is anticipated to improve the popularity of basketball in China, thereby enhancing overall sales of basketball products [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Rating - The company focuses on a "single brand, multiple categories, and multiple channels" development strategy, continuously investing in R&D to enhance core technologies in footwear and apparel [3] - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 2.645 billion, 2.846 billion, and 3.104 billion yuan respectively [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its strong brand position, product development capabilities, and marketing strength in the sports apparel sector [3]
李宁(02331.HK):预计下半年净利率走弱
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-19 11:28
Group 1: Company Performance - Li Ning's retail revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit growth compared to the same period last year [1] - Offline channels (including retail and wholesale) saw a low single-digit decline in retail revenue year-on-year, with direct retail channels experiencing a mid single-digit decline and wholesale channels showing low single-digit growth [1] - Online channel retail revenue for Q2 2025 showed mid single-digit growth compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Store Network Adjustment - As of June 30, 2025, Li Ning had a total of 6,099 sales points in China (excluding Li Ning YOUNG), a net increase of 11 from the previous quarter, but a decrease of 18 year-to-date [1] - The net decrease of 18 sales points included a net reduction of 19 in retail business, while wholesale business saw a net increase of 1 [1] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Marketing - Li Ning signed a partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee, becoming the sportswear partner for the 2025-2028 Olympic events, which may enhance its brand recognition and support international expansion [2] - The company has focused on local talent, signing CBA stars and recently securing a five-year contract with NBA player Yang Hanshen, who was selected 16th overall in the NBA draft, marking a significant milestone for domestic sports brands [2] Group 4: Financial Forecast Adjustments - Due to anticipated increased marketing investments in the second half of the year, net profit margins are expected to weaken, but marketing expenses related to COC and NBA partnerships are expected to enhance brand visibility [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 28.9 billion RMB, 29.6 billion RMB, and 30.7 billion RMB respectively, with net profits revised to 2.4 billion RMB, 2.6 billion RMB, and 2.7 billion RMB [3]
国家食品安全风险评估中心李宁:聚焦“三减”,助力餐饮业健康发展
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-07-18 12:28
Core Insights - The "Three Reductions" policy (reducing salt, oil, and sugar) is crucial for the healthy development of China's catering industry, driven by the rising incidence of non-communicable diseases globally [2][3] - The World Health Organization and China's "Healthy China 2030" initiative set specific targets for the "Three Reductions" by 2030, highlighting the urgency of addressing dietary risks [2] Industry Role - The catering industry is encouraged to comply with national nutrition plans and dietary actions, including employing nutritionists and establishing nutritional operation standards for collective dining units [3] - Guidelines from the National Health Commission provide clear directives for the catering industry to implement the "Three Reductions" effectively [3] Current Implementation Status - Current assessments indicate that while the average sugar intake is within reasonable limits, there is a significant concern regarding excessive salt and oil consumption, which exceeds recommended levels [3] - The sources of salt, oil, and sugar intake have been analyzed, emphasizing that the "Three Reductions" require a gradual approach rather than abrupt changes [3] Collaborative Efforts - The advancement of the "Three Reductions" necessitates a collective effort from society, with policy support and industry innovation being essential [3] - There is a need for food education to instill a sense of personal responsibility for health among individuals, promoting a collaborative approach to achieving the "Three Reductions" [3]
李宁(02331):营销投入加大,静待体育资源逐步催化业绩增长
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-07-18 08:37
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - Increased marketing investment is expected to gradually catalyze performance growth through sports resources [5] - The company has become a partner of the Chinese Olympic Committee, which is anticipated to enhance its product matrix and brand image [7] - The signing of player Yang Hanshen, who was selected in the first round of the NBA draft, is expected to boost the popularity of the company's basketball-related products [7] - The company is focusing on a "single brand, multiple categories, and multiple channels" development strategy, which is expected to drive long-term growth [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 27,598.49 million RMB - 2024: 28,675.64 million RMB - 2025E: 29,026.63 million RMB - 2026E: 30,765.67 million RMB - 2027E: 32,844.70 million RMB - The expected growth rates for revenue are 6.96% in 2023, 3.90% in 2024, 1.22% in 2025, 5.99% in 2026, and 6.76% in 2027 [6] - Projected net profit attributable to the parent company is as follows: - 2023: 3,186.91 million RMB - 2024: 3,012.92 million RMB - 2025E: 2,644.93 million RMB - 2026E: 2,846.01 million RMB - 2027E: 3,103.86 million RMB - The expected net profit growth rates are -21.58% in 2023, -5.46% in 2024, -12.21% in 2025, 7.60% in 2026, and 9.06% in 2027 [6][8]
李宁(02331):预计下半年净利率走弱
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-07-18 07:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Insights - The company reported low single-digit growth in retail sales compared to the same period last year, with offline channels experiencing a low single-digit decline and online channels showing a mid-single-digit increase [1]. - The company has signed a partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee, becoming the official sportswear partner for the 2025-2028 Olympic events, which is expected to enhance brand recognition and support international expansion [2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts due to consumer pressure, projecting revenues of 28.9 billion RMB, 29.6 billion RMB, and 30.7 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with net profits of 2.4 billion RMB, 2.6 billion RMB, and 2.7 billion RMB respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit growth year-on-year, with offline channels declining and online channels increasing [1]. - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of sales points in China was 6,099, a net increase of 11 from the previous quarter, but a net decrease of 18 year-to-date [1]. Marketing and Brand Strategy - The partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee is expected to enhance the company's brand image and leverage its association with major international sporting events [2]. - The company has also signed contracts with emerging CBA stars, including Yang Hanshen, who was selected in the NBA draft, which may help in establishing a stronger presence in the international market [2]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The company has revised its profit forecasts downward due to anticipated consumer challenges, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.93 RMB, 0.99 RMB, and 1.06 RMB for 2025-2027 [4].