Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 28.68 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.9%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 5.5% to 3.01 billion RMB [6]. - The company is expected to increase investments starting from 2025 to pursue long-term high-quality development [1]. - The target price is set at 21.19 HKD, based on a 20x PE valuation for 2025 [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: - 2022: 25.80 billion RMB - 2023: 27.60 billion RMB - 2024E: 28.68 billion RMB (3.9% growth) - 2025E: 28.95 billion RMB (0.9% growth) - 2026E: 31.32 billion RMB (8.2% growth) [2][9] - **Net Profit**: - 2022: 4.06 billion RMB - 2023: 3.19 billion RMB - 2024E: 3.01 billion RMB (5.5% decline) - 2025E: 2.56 billion RMB (15.0% decline) - 2026E: 2.99 billion RMB (16.5% growth) [2][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022: 1.57 RMB - 2023: 1.23 RMB - 2024E: 1.17 RMB - 2025E: 0.99 RMB - 2026E: 1.15 RMB [2][9] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: - 2024E: 49.4% - 2025E: 49.5% - 2026E: 49.9% [2][9] - Net Margin: - 2024E: 10.5% - 2025E: 8.9% - 2026E: 9.5% [2][9] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2024E: 11.9% - 2025E: 9.0% - 2026E: 0.0% [2][9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its direct sales channels and has seen good performance in e-commerce, with a projected revenue growth of 10.3% in 2024 [6]. - The company plans to leverage its role as the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee and the Chinese sports delegation from 2025 to 2028 to enhance brand strength [6].

纺织服饰/服装家纺 2024 年跑步驱动增长，巩固基础，蓄力长期 ——港股公司信息更新报告 2025 年 03 月 31 日 《2024Q1 流水符合预期，零售折扣低 单改善—港股公司信息更新报告》 -2024.4.25 | 吕明（分析师） | 周嘉乐（分析师） 张霜凝（分析师） | | --- | --- | | lvming@kysec.cn | zhoujiale@kysec.cn zhangshuangning@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030002 | 证书编号：S0790522030002 证书编号：S0790524070006 | |  2024 | 年跑步驱动增长，巩固基础，务实发展，维持"买入"评级 | 2024 年公司实现营收 286.76 亿元(同比+3.9%，下同)，归母净利润 30.13 亿元 (-5.5%)，净利率 10.5%（-1.0pct），符合预期，派息率从 45%提至 50%。考虑加 盟渠道健康发展短期影响发货增速以及加大对运动资源的费用投入，我们下调 2025-2026 年并新增 2027 年盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润为 ...

2025 年 3 月 31 日 公司研究 24 年表现平稳，25 年将加大投入、促品牌力向上 ——李宁（2331.HK）2024 年业绩点评 买入（维持） 当前价：17.16 元港币 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 分析师：孙未未 执业证书编号：S0930517080001 021-52523672 sunww@ebscn.com 分析师：朱洁宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070004 021-52523842 zhujieyu@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 25.85 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 443.55 | | 一年最低/最高(港元)： | 12.56/24.60 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 109.8% | 股价相对走势 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 李宁 恒生指数 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 28.7 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3 billion RMB, a decrease of 5.5%, resulting in a net profit margin of 10.5% [1]. - The second half of 2024 saw a revenue of 14.3 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.5%, with a net profit of 1.1 billion RMB, down 0.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company declared a total dividend of 0.5848 RMB per share for the year, with a payout ratio of 50% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - By brand, the total number of stores at the end of 2024 was 7,585, a decrease of 83 from the beginning of the year. The main brand, Li Ning, saw a reduction of 123 stores to 6,117, while Li Ning Young increased by 40 stores to 1,468 [2]. - In terms of channels, wholesale revenue reached 13 billion RMB, up 3% year-on-year; direct sales revenue was 6.9 billion RMB, slightly down by 0.3%; and e-commerce revenue was 8.3 billion RMB, up 10% year-on-year [2]. Product Performance - The company focuses on six core categories: running, basketball, fitness, badminton, table tennis, and sports lifestyle, with new product retail sales accounting for 85% of overall offline sales [3]. - Running sales increased by 25%, with over 10.6 million pairs sold from three new running shoe series. The company upgraded its "SOFT" technology matrix, enhancing product performance while ensuring comfort [3]. - Basketball sales decreased by 21%, with plans to promote street basketball culture through events in multiple cities [3]. Cost Management and Inventory - The gross margin for 2024 was 49.4%, an increase of 1 percentage point, attributed to a higher proportion of sales from the more profitable e-commerce channel and improved discounts in offline stores [5]. - Sales expenses rose by 1.3% year-on-year to 9.2 billion RMB, mainly due to increased market expansion efforts and brand promotion [5]. - Inventory turnover across all channels was maintained at a healthy level of four months, with channel inventory increasing in high units year-on-year [5]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for 2025-2027, projecting revenues of 29.5 billion RMB, 31.7 billion RMB, and 34 billion RMB respectively, with net profits of 2.8 billion RMB, 3 billion RMB, and 3.2 billion RMB [10].

24 年业绩符合预期，25 年起加大投入追求 中长期高质量发展 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据业绩公告，我们调整 24-26 年盈利预测，预计 24-26 年 EPS 分别为 1.17、0.99 和 1.15 元（原 1.2、1.37 和 1.54 元），参考可比公司，给予 2025 年 20 倍的 PE 估 值，目标价为 21.19 港币（1 人民币=1.07 港币），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：运动服饰消费低于预期、终端去库存进度和新产品推广不及预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 25,803 | 27,598 | 28,676 | 28,945 | 31,317 | | 同比增长 (%) | 14.3% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 8.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 5,415 | 4,256 | 4,110 | 3,462 | 4,033 | | 同比增长 (%) | 1.6% | -21 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Li Ning with a new target price of HK$ 19.81, reflecting an upside of 15.4% from the current price of HK$ 17.16 [3][17]. Core Insights - Li Ning's FY24 results were in line with market expectations, with a slight improvement in 4Q24 operating numbers. The company has provided conservative guidance for FY25E, targeting flat sales growth and a high single-digit net profit margin [1][14]. - The management anticipates stable growth in average selling price (ASP) and volume for FY25E, with a focus on improving the lifestyle segment while maintaining growth in running and basketball categories [1][12]. - The report indicates that the worst may be over for Li Ning, as early trends in 1Q25E show improvement, despite the high current valuation [1][14]. Financial Summary - FY24 revenue reached RMB 28.7 billion, a 4% year-on-year increase, while net profit fell by 5% to RMB 3.0 billion, resulting in a net profit margin of 10.5% [2][14]. - For FY25E, revenue is expected to remain flat at RMB 28.7 billion, with a projected net profit of RMB 2.67 billion, reflecting a decline of 11.3% year-on-year [2][12]. - The report revises down net profit forecasts for FY25E and FY26E by 23% and 20%, respectively, due to slower retail sales growth and increased advertising and promotion expenses [1][12]. Earnings Revision - The report shows a significant downward revision in earnings estimates, with FY25E revenue revised down by 5% to RMB 28.68 billion and net profit adjusted down by 22.9% to RMB 2.67 billion [12][13]. - Gross profit margin is expected to improve slightly to 49.6% in FY25E, while operating profit margin is projected to decline to 11.6% due to increased A&P expenses [12][16]. Market Position and Performance - Li Ning's market capitalization is approximately HK$ 44.9 billion, with a P/E ratio of 16x for FY25, which is considered relatively high [5][17]. - The company has a shareholding structure with significant stakes held by Viva China Holdings (10.4%) and GIC Pte Ltd. (5.0%) [6]. Sales Growth and Channel Performance - The report highlights that retail sales growth rebounded to high single digits in 4Q24, improving from a mid-single-digit decline in 3Q24 [14]. - Management expects improvements in retail discounts and a better channel mix, particularly with online sales, which typically yield higher operating margins [1][12]. Segment Performance - For FY25E, management projects a decline in clothing sales by 3% while expecting growth in shoe sales by 1.7% and equipment sales by 5% [16]. - The report indicates that the company is focusing on enhancing its lifestyle segment while maintaining its core categories of running and basketball [1][16].

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's 2024 financial report shows a revenue of 28.676 billion RMB, a 3.9% year-on-year increase, but a net profit decline of 5.5% to 3.013 billion RMB, attributed to impairment of investment properties. The overall gross margin improved to 49.4% [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 reached 28.676 billion RMB, up from 27.598 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a 3.9% increase [3]. - Net profit decreased to 3.013 billion RMB from 3.187 billion RMB, marking a 5.5% decline [3]. - Gross margin improved by 1 percentage point to 49.4% [3]. - EBITDA increased by 3.6% to 6.379 billion RMB [3]. - Basic earnings per share fell by 5.1% to 116.98 RMB [3]. Market Strategy - Li Ning emphasizes a "single brand, multiple categories" strategy, focusing on core categories such as running, basketball, and training, which accounted for 64% of retail sales in 2024 [4][5]. - The company aims to deepen its core categories while maintaining its professional sports brand positioning [4][5]. Product Performance - Retail sales for running increased by 25%, contributing 28% to total retail sales, with over 10.6 million pairs sold [5]. - Basketball retail sales declined by 21%, as the company aims to protect the core value of the category [6][7]. Channel Management - Li Ning's offline retail faced challenges, with daily customer traffic down 10% to 20%, leading to a slight decrease in overall offline retail sales [14]. - The company closed 123 main brand stores while increasing Li Ning YOUNG stores by 40, resulting in a total of 7,585 sales points [15]. - E-commerce sales increased by 2 percentage points to 31% of total revenue, with direct online sales growing by 10% to 20% [15]. R&D and Inventory Management - R&D expenditure accounted for 2.4% of total revenue, with total investment exceeding 3.5 billion RMB over the past decade [17]. - Inventory turnover days increased by one day to 64 days, maintaining a leading position in the industry [18]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates stable revenue growth for 2025, with net profit margins expected to increase in the high single digits [19]. - Li Ning has become the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee from 2025 to 2028, which may enhance its brand reputation and market opportunities [19].

Core Viewpoint - 2024 is a significant year for sports, with Li Ning demonstrating strong financial performance and brand improvement, positioning itself for future growth as a new sponsor for the Chinese Olympic Committee [1][8]. Financial Performance - Li Ning achieved revenue of 28.676 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [2]. - The net profit reached 3.013 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 10.5% [2]. - Gross profit was 14.156 billion RMB, up 6.0% from the previous year, with an overall gross margin of 49.4%, an increase of 1 percentage point [2]. Operational Highlights - Li Ning's operating cash flow was 5.27 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, indicating strong risk resilience and efficient supply chain management [3]. - The inventory turnover days were 64 days, with a cash cycle of 35 days, reflecting healthy inventory management [3]. - R&D expenditure increased by 9.4%, outpacing revenue growth, highlighting a commitment to innovation and product competitiveness [3]. Strategic Focus - Li Ning is deepening its focus on professional fields and product categories, enhancing brand value and long-term competitiveness [5]. - The company is concentrating on six core categories: basketball, running, fitness, badminton, table tennis, and sports lifestyle, with a comprehensive product layout [6]. - In basketball, Li Ning launched several successful models, including the "伽马" series, which topped annual basketball shoe rankings [6]. Brand and Market Positioning - Li Ning became the official strategic partner of the Chinese Men's Professional Basketball League in 2024, enhancing its brand recognition [7]. - The company has achieved significant success in running, with retail sales increasing by 25% year-on-year, and has sold over 10.6 million running shoes [6][7]. - The upcoming Olympic cycle starting in 2025 is expected to further strengthen Li Ning's brand image and market position [8]. Conclusion - Li Ning's solid performance reflects a strategic recalibration, focusing on operational quality, technological depth, and brand potential, setting the stage for a new growth cycle [8][9].

2025年3月28日，李宁披露业绩。财报显示，在2024年，李宁营收同比增长3.9%至286.8亿元；归母净利润为30.1亿元。 从关键的毛利来看，李宁毛利润同比提升6.0%至141.6亿元，毛利率提升1个百分点至49.4%。 如此成绩，在眼下并不容易。放眼各大品牌，从海外品牌到国内其他运动巨头，毛利率都呈下滑态势。 李宁毛利率逆势增长背后，是十二个关键字："稳健经营、夯实基础、务实发展"。 "该控的控" "稳健经营不等于保守经营。我们2024年在稳健经营方面是该攻的攻、该控的控、该调的调。"在业绩会上，李宁集团联席CEO钱炜如此描绘该 公司的经营策略。 从动作来看，李宁正在让经营变得更加务实。 "稳健经营的核心是保证毛利率，不能因为追求规模带来大量折扣率的加深，而带来盈利能力空间的减少。所以，我们的毛利率2024年对比 2023年有所改善，代表着我们在控制毛利率方面是以企业经营质量为核心。"钱炜进一步解释。 李宁在市场波动中稳健增长。 比如，李宁正在篮球业务方面调控。"进行有效的控货，把篮球的发货量有效控制，目的是提升篮球的产品核心竞争力的提升。"钱炜说。 同时，李宁正对一些不必要、非有效产出的地方进行了费 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [2][27]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong operational capabilities despite challenging market conditions, with a steady increase in dividend payout ratio to approximately 50% for the year [7]. - Revenue for 2024 reached 28.68 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.9%, outperforming expectations, primarily due to a strong recovery in Q4 sales [7]. - The company’s net profit for 2024 was 3.01 billion RMB, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year, but adjusted for a one-time impairment loss, the profit would have shown a 5% increase [7]. - The company continues to focus on enhancing brand value and product innovation, particularly in the running segment, which saw a 25% increase in sales [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2023: 27.6 billion RMB - 2024: 28.7 billion RMB - 2025E: 28.8 billion RMB - 2026E: 30.1 billion RMB - 2027E: 31.2 billion RMB - The expected growth rates for these years are 7%, 4%, 0%, 4%, and 4% respectively [6]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 2.48 billion RMB, with a projected PE ratio of 17 [6][17]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 49.4% for 2025, with a slight increase in operating profit margin to 12.8% [7]. Sales Performance - The company’s footwear segment generated 14.3 billion RMB in revenue, a 7% increase, while apparel revenue decreased by 2.9% to 12.05 billion RMB [7]. - E-commerce sales grew by 10.3% to 8.3 billion RMB, while direct sales saw a slight decline of 0.3% [7]. - The company’s total store count at the end of 2024 was 7,585, with a net decrease of 83 stores, indicating a strategic focus on optimizing store performance [7]. Market Comparison - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 44.36 billion HKD, with a target market value of 48.3 billion HKD for 2025, suggesting a potential upside of 9% from current levels [7][17]. - Compared to peers, the company’s projected PE for 2025 is 18, which is competitive within the industry [17].