2024 年3 月25 日 耐用消费品及服装: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 李宁 (2331 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$26.66) 持续优化产品矩阵与订货模型驱动业绩增长 目标价: HK$26.66 当前股价: HK$20.45 • 2023 年业绩符合我们预期； 股价上行/下行空间 +30% 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 65.00/14.94 • 李宁进一步优化产品矩阵与订货模型驱动增长，我们预计2024 年营收/归母净利润分 市值 (US$mn) 6,757 别同比增长5.2%/6.6%至290.3/34.0 亿元； 当前发行数量(百万股) 2,584 • 维持买入评级，上调目标价6%至26.66 港元，对应17 倍2025 年P/E。 三个月平均日交易額 70 (US$mn) 2023 年业绩符合预期：1）李宁发布2023 年业绩，营收/归母净利润分别同比+7.0%/ - 流通盘占比 (%) 100 21.6%至276.0/31.8 亿元，折算2H23 营收/归母净利润分别同比+1.4%/-43.1%至135.8/ 主要股东 (%) Viva China 10 10.7 亿元，业绩 ...

OJacntuoabrey r1 12,22,0 21051 0 BuildFinogo dM, Baetevreiraalsge | &C oTombpa 公accn 司oy | 研R Ce 究osme paarcnhy Research 纺织服装 | 公司研究 库存恢复至健康水平，分红率提升至 45% 2024年3月25日 李宁 (2331.HK) 公司发布2023年年报，业绩表现符合预期。2023年公司实现收入276亿元，同比增长7%，归 增持 母净利润31.9亿元，同比下滑22%，业绩表现符合预期（数据均来自公司公告，下同）。其中， 23年下半年收入同比增长1.4%至135.8亿元，净利润同比下滑43%至10.7亿元。全年派息0.55 维持 元/股，派息比例从22年的30%提升到45%，进一步提升股东回报。 终端流水快于收入增长，童装业务表现亮眼。23年公司流水增长10%-20%低段，快于收入7%的 市场数据：2024年3月25日 增长，尤其是批发流水同比增长 10-20%低段（不含专业渠道），明显快于批发收入的低个位数增 收盘价（港币） 20.20 长，库存正加速去化。23Q4公司单季度流水增速为2 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/纺织与服装/服装与奢侈品 证券研究报告 李宁（2331）公司年报点评 2024年03月26日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 2023 库存企稳，望长期健康增长 股票数据 [Table_Summary] [Table_StockInfo] 投资要点： 03月25日收盘价 （港元） 20.20 52周股价波动（港元） 17.88-80.99  收入稳增长，广宣与高线布局费用部分拖累盈利。全年收入 275.98 亿元 （+7.0%），归母净利润31.87亿元（-21.6%），扣非归母净利润30.46亿元 总股本（百万股） 2584 （-25.0%），其中扣除的一次性与经营无关收益约1.4亿元，为集团所分享的 总市值（百万港元） 52206 联营公司土地处置收益。毛利率 48.4%（同比持平），经营利润率 12.9% 相关研究 （-6.0pct），净利率11.5%（-4.2pct）。毛利率维持稳定，受2方面因素影响， [《Ta23bHle1_盈R利ep能o力rt显In韧fo性] ，专业品类持续发力》 正面：线下直营折扣改善，负面：电商竞争 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 27.24 HKD based on a 19x PE valuation for 2024 [2][4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported 2023 revenue of 27.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.19 billion, down 21.6% year-on-year, influenced by a one-time gain from land disposal of 140 million [1][6]. - The company faced revenue growth pressure in the second half of 2023, with revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders growing by 1.4% and declining by 43.1% year-on-year, respectively [1]. - Inventory levels have returned to a healthy state, with a channel inventory turnover of 3.6 months by the end of 2023, showing significant improvement from the previous quarter [1]. - The company is focusing on professional categories, with retail sales increasing by 12% year-on-year, particularly in running and fitness categories, which grew by 40% and 25% respectively [1]. - The company has a cautious outlook for 2024, predicting mid-single-digit revenue growth and low double-digit net profit margin, while remaining optimistic about long-term growth potential due to brand value and product breakthroughs [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share for 2023-2025 are 1.23, 1.32, and 1.52 RMB, respectively, with a downward adjustment from previous estimates [2][6]. - The revenue forecast for 2023-2025 is 27.6 billion, 29.1 billion, and 32.1 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 7.0%, 5.4%, and 10.2% respectively [3][9]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 48.4% for 2023, with a slight decline projected for the following years [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning, with a target price of HKD 26.10, representing an expected upside of 27.6% from the current price of HKD 20.45 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations, with revenue increasing by 7.0% year-on-year to HKD 27.6 billion, while net profit decreased by 21.6% to HKD 3.187 billion. The overall gross margin remained stable at 48.4% [5][8]. - The company is cautiously optimistic about 2024, expecting mid-single-digit revenue growth and maintaining double-digit profit margins. Inventory levels have improved, with a channel inventory turnover of 3.6 months at the end of 2023 [9][11]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of HKD 27.6 billion, with a net profit of HKD 3.187 billion. The gross margin was stable at 48.4%, while the net profit margin decreased to 11.5% from 15.7% in the previous year [5][7][17]. - The forecast for 2024 estimates revenue of HKD 29.368 billion, with a net profit of HKD 3.336 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.4% and 4.7%, respectively [11][17]. - The company's total assets were reported at HKD 34.208 billion for 2023, with total liabilities of HKD 9.801 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 40.2% [16][17]. Shareholder Information - Major shareholders include Viva China Holdings Ltd with 10.29% and BlackRock, Inc. with 5.96% [4]. Market Position - The company has shown strong control over its direct sales channels, with a low double-digit same-store sales growth (SSSG) in direct retail, while wholesale SSSG experienced a slight decline [9][11]. - The company has strategically managed its inventory, with a significant improvement in inventory turnover, indicating effective inventory management practices [5][9]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the company will continue to focus on optimizing channel health and expanding into lower-tier markets, with a keen eye on inventory control and product mix [6][11]. - The anticipated revenue growth for 2023 to 2025 is projected at HKD 293.7 billion, HKD 324.5 billion, and HKD 353.8 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 33.4 billion, HKD 38.4 billion, and HKD 43.5 billion [11][17].

6 李宁（2331） 更新报告 买入 2024年03月26日 2023年全年业绩符合预期；库存周转和 零售折扣在改善 王柏俊  2023 年全年业绩概况：公司录得收入 276 亿元人民币（下同），同比 增 长 7% 。 自 营 零 售 / 批 发 / 电 商 / 海 外 业 务 分 别 增 长 852-25321915 29.6%/0.6%/0.9%/16.6%。品类来看：跑步增长最好+40% (三大核心IP patrick.wong@firstshanghai.com.hk 累计销量破 900 万双), 健身增长 25%, 篮球及运动生活都是持平。毛 主要数据 利率维持稳定在48.4%；线下直营店铺的折扣是有所改善，但电商渠道 毛利率随线上竞争环境的加剧被拉低。经营开支比率增加 4.9pct 到 行业 服装纺织 37.5%(主要受租金，直接销售人员工资奖金，广告宣传及赞助和研发 股价 20.20港元 开支增加，在高级市场布局和部分亏损店铺计提资产减值的影响)。经 营利润和股东应占净利润分别减少 27.2%和 21.6%%到 35.6 及 31.9 亿 目标价 25.28港元 元。经营利润率和股东应占净利润 ...

公 司 研 究 DONGXING SECURITIES 李宁（02331）：23年业绩暂承压， 2024年3月25日 强烈推荐/维持 看好24年稳健发展 李宁 公司报告 东 兴 证 事件：李宁发布2023年业绩，2023年集团收入为275.98亿元，同比增7%； 公司简介： 券 权益持有人应占净溢利为31.87亿元人民币，同比减少21.6%。公司经营现 集团为中国领先的体育品牌企业之一。集团 股 金流净额46.88亿元，同比增长19.8%。拟派发末期股息每股18.54分，全 拥有本身之品牌、研究、设计、制造、经销 份 年派息54.74分，派息比率为45%。 及零售实力。集团之产品包括运动及休闲用 有 途之运动鞋、服装及配件，而该等产品主要 收入稳健增长，服装成为增长支撑，渠道方面电商暂时承压。产品端：2023 限 以集团自有之李宁牌出售。 年服装收入124.1亿元，同比增16%，鞋类收入133.89亿元，同比微降1%。 资料来源：公司公告、iFinD 公 服装成为2023年收入支撑，而鞋类保持一定的规模韧性。分渠道：李宁品牌 司 批发业务收入118.18亿元，同比微增1%；线下直营业务收入66.93亿元， 证 ...

%% research.95579.com %% 丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨李宁（ ） 2331.HK [业Ta绩b符le_合T预itle期] ，资产质量改善 报告要点 [李Ta宁bl公e_司Su发m布ma2r0y2]3年全年业绩，2023年公司实现营收276亿元，同比+7%，归母净利润同比 -22%至31.9亿元，全年派息比例达45%，收入业绩表现符合市场预期，派息比例提升。 ...

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 纺织服装业 [ Table_Main[李I Tnaf 宁bol]e （_Ti 2tl 3e] 3 1） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 21.45 2023 年业绩符合预期，2024 年有望稳健增长 2024.03.21 海 ——2023年年报点评 [ 交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 外 王佳(分析师) 曹冬青(研究助理) 赵博(研究助理) 52周内股价区间（港元） 15.12-61.90 当前股本（百万股） 2,584 公 010-83939781 0755-23976666 010-83939831 当前市值（百万港元） 55,437 司 wangjia025750@gtjas.com caodongqing026730@gtjas.com zhaobo026729@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880524010001 S0880122070070 S0880122070053 （ 中 本报告导读： 国 2023年业绩符合预期，库存水平恢复健康，预计2024年收入增长中单位数，净利率 维持低双位数。 香 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HK$29.40, indicating an upside potential of +38.4% from the current price of HK$21.25 [1]. Core Insights - Li Ning's FY23 results met expectations, with revenue of RMB27.6 billion, reflecting a 7% year-over-year increase, while net profit decreased by 21.6% to RMB3,187 million. The company declared a final dividend of RMB0.19, resulting in a payout ratio of 45% [1]. - Management provided conservative guidance for FY24, targeting a sales growth of approximately 5% and a net profit margin (NPM) of 12-13% [1]. - The company is focusing on operational improvements and quality enhancement, with a goal to drive NPM towards 15% in the mid-to-long term [1]. Financial Performance Summary - FY23 revenue was RMB27.6 billion, up 7% YoY, while net profit was RMB3,187 million, down 21.6% YoY. The gross profit margin (GPM) remained stable at 48.4% [2]. - The operating profit margin (OPM) contracted by 6.0 percentage points to 12.9%, primarily due to an increase in selling and distribution expenses [2]. - The cash conversion cycle extended by 5 days to 35 days, with operating cash flow reaching RMB4.7 billion, a 20% increase YoY [1][2]. Operational Highlights - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales mix improved to 25.0% from 20.7% in FY22, contributing positively to the GPM [1]. - The company reported a sell-through rate of 78%, significantly higher than 52% in FY22, indicating improved inventory management [1]. - Channel inventory decreased to 3.6 months, down from 4.2 months in December 2022, reflecting better inventory control [1]. Future Outlook - For FY24, Li Ning aims for a revenue target of RMB29.3 billion, with projected earnings of RMB3.52 billion [1]. - The company plans to optimize its store network, expecting to close over 20 directly operated stores while opening around 100 franchised stores [1]. - Management is implementing measures to control unauthorized sales activities, targeting a reduction of such activities by 50-60% by the end of FY24 [1].