Core Insights - The four major sports brands in Hong Kong—Anta Sports, Li Ning, Xtep International, and 361 Degrees—achieved revenue growth in the first half of 2025, but profit performance varied significantly [1][5] - Increased discounting has become a common strategy in the industry, impacting profit growth and gross margins [1][2] - Trends such as "opening large stores" and professional upgrades are becoming prominent in the industry [1][8] Revenue and Growth - In the first half of 2025, Anta Sports led with revenue of 38.54 billion yuan, a growth rate of 14.26%. Li Ning, Xtep International, and 361 Degrees reported revenues of 14.82 billion yuan, 6.838 billion yuan, and 5.705 billion yuan, with growth rates of 3.29%, 7.14%, and 10.96% respectively [2] - Over the past three years, except for Anta Sports, the other three brands showed a decline in growth rates: Xtep's growth fell from 14.76% to 7.14%, 361 Degrees from 18.00% to 10.96%, and Li Ning from 12.98% to 3.29% [2] - Anta Sports has maintained double-digit revenue growth for four consecutive years, but its main brands, Anta and FILA, have seen growth rates drop to single digits, with over 10% growth driven by outdoor brands like Descente and Kolon [2] Online Sales Performance - Online channels have become a common growth highlight for all four companies, but they have also negatively impacted gross margins. In the first half of 2025, online revenue growth rates were 17.6% for Anta Sports, 7.4% for Li Ning, and 45% for 361 Degrees [2][3] - The online revenue share for Anta Sports, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees was 34.8%, 29%, and 31.8% respectively, indicating that online business has become an important revenue pillar [3] Gross Margin Analysis - Anta Sports' gross margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 63.37%, attributed to increased costs in professional categories and higher online discounting [3] - Li Ning's gross margin fell by 0.4 percentage points to 50.04%, due to changes in channel structure and intensified promotional competition [3] - 361 Degrees experienced a unique situation where its gross margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 41.5%, driven by a "price for volume" strategy that lowered average wholesale prices while increasing sales [3] Net Profit Performance - The net profit performance of the four brands showed divergence, with Anta Sports and 361 Degrees facing slowing net profit growth, while Li Ning experienced a decline. Li Ning's net profit was 1.737 billion yuan, down 10.99% year-on-year [5] - Anta Sports reported a net profit of 7.031 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.9%. However, excluding the impact of Amer Sports' listing in the previous year, net profit grew by 14.5% [5] - 361 Degrees' net profit was 858 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 8.61%, down from 12.23% in the previous year [5] Industry Trends - The industry is witnessing significant trends in market behavior and strategic layout, particularly in the competitive running shoe market, where brands are focusing on original research and development [7] - Brands are increasingly targeting niche markets and launching "precisely segmented" running shoes to meet diverse consumer needs [7] - The trend of "opening large stores" is common among the four brands, with flagship stores often exceeding 1,000 square meters and offering a mix of experience, service, and social interaction [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the intense competition in the sportswear industry, leading to increased discounting practices that negatively impact profit growth and gross margins [2][4]. Revenue and Growth - In the first half of 2025, the four major sports brands in Hong Kong—Anta Sports, Li Ning, Xtep International, and 361 Degrees—achieved revenue growth, with Anta leading at 38.54 billion yuan and a growth rate of 14.26%. Li Ning, Xtep, and 361 Degrees reported revenues of 14.82 billion yuan, 6.838 billion yuan, and 5.705 billion yuan, with growth rates of 3.29%, 7.14%, and 10.96% respectively [4]. - Over the past three years, except for Anta, the other three brands have shown a decline in growth rates, with Xtep's revenue growth dropping from 14.76% to 7.14%, 361 Degrees from 18.00% to 10.96%, and Li Ning from 12.98% to 3.29% [4]. - Anta's revenue growth is primarily driven by its outdoor brands, while its main brands, Anta and FILA, have seen growth rates decline to single digits [4]. Online Channel Performance - Online channels have become a common growth highlight for the four companies, with Anta, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees reporting online revenue growth rates of 17.6%, 7.4%, and 45% respectively. Xtep did not disclose its overall online growth but noted that its main brand's e-commerce business grew and accounted for over 30% of total revenue [4][5]. - The online business expansion has negatively impacted gross margins, with Anta's gross margin decreasing by 0.7 percentage points to 63.37%, attributed to increased costs and discounts [5]. - Li Ning's gross margin fell by 0.4 percentage points to 50.04%, due to changes in channel structure and increased promotional discounts [5]. Profitability Analysis - Despite 361 Degrees experiencing a slight increase in gross margin by 0.2 percentage points to 41.5%, its net profit margin declined due to a significant rise in sales expenses, which increased by 13.2% to 1.037 billion yuan [6][7]. - Anta's net profit for the first half of 2025 was 7.031 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.9% year-on-year, while Li Ning's net profit fell by 10.99% to 1.737 billion yuan [7]. Industry Trends - The industry is witnessing a trend towards professionalization and specialization, with brands focusing on core categories and launching targeted products [9]. - The "big store" strategy is being adopted by all four brands, with flagship stores exceeding 1,000 square meters, offering a mix of sales, experience, and service [10]. - Overall, while the four major sports brands in Hong Kong reported revenue growth in the first half of 2025, they face challenges of differentiated growth rates and profit pressures, actively responding to industry competition through online initiatives, product segmentation, and channel upgrades [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Ning, with a target price of HKD 21.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.1% from the current price of HKD 18.77 [2][15]. Core Insights - Li Ning's operating profit for 1H25 exceeded market expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 14.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. The growth was driven by the wholesale and e-commerce channels, while the self-operated channel saw a decline due to store closures [3][12]. - The company continues to implement a single-brand, multi-category strategy, focusing on professional product expansion, which has led to revenue growth in footwear and accessories [4][13]. - Olympic marketing is a central theme in Li Ning's mid-term strategy, with increased marketing expenses expected in the second half of the year [6][14]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 29.13 billion, RMB 30.64 billion, and RMB 32.30 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 1.6%, 5.2%, and 5.4% respectively [7][16]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 2.49 billion, RMB 2.84 billion, and RMB 3.17 billion for the same period, with a notable decline of 17.3% in 2025, followed by growth in subsequent years [7][16]. - The gross margin for 1H25 was reported at 50%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by deeper discounting and changes in channel contributions [3][12]. Category and Channel Adjustments - The company has concluded its category and channel adjustments, with a focus on enhancing brand equity and consumer engagement through Olympic marketing initiatives [15][16]. - Li Ning's footwear and apparel categories have shown mixed performance, with footwear revenue growing by 5% while apparel declined by 3% [4][13]. - The basketball category experienced a significant decline of 20% in revenue, attributed to proactive order control to maintain brand equity [4][13].

Core Viewpoint - The price of badminton products, particularly from well-known brands like Yonex and Victor, has been rising significantly, with increases of approximately 30-40 yuan per barrel, leading to consumer frustration and calls for a boycott of these brands [2][4][5]. Price Increase and Consumer Reaction - The price of Yonex's popular AS-05 model has risen from 275 yuan to 350 yuan per barrel, translating to an increase of over 3 yuan per shuttlecock, which is nearly a 20% rise [4]. - Consumers express their discontent on social media, comparing the cost of playing badminton to more expensive activities and lamenting the affordability of the sport [3][4]. Supply Chain Challenges - The surge in prices is attributed to a significant decline in the supply of ducks and geese, which are essential for producing high-quality shuttlecocks. The number of ducks has decreased from approximately 4.878 billion in 2019 to 4.22 billion in 2024, while geese have dropped from 634 million to 569 million [5]. - The increase in pork production has also squeezed the resources available for duck and goose farming, exacerbating the supply shortage [5]. Market Dynamics - The rapid growth of badminton's popularity in China has led to increased domestic demand, prompting suppliers to shift focus from exports to the local market, intensifying competition for limited raw materials [5]. - A manufacturer reported that prices for duck and goose feathers have more than doubled since the end of 2022, with some price changes occurring within hours [5]. Production Insights - The production facility in Guizhou, which has become a significant hub for badminton manufacturing, produced over 400 million shuttlecocks last year, with an export value of nearly 9 million USD [8]. - The factory has seen a 40% increase in exports compared to the previous year, driven by rising demand and proactive measures to expand production capacity [8][9]. Alternative Solutions - The use of synthetic materials for shuttlecock production is being explored as a viable alternative, aligning with the World Badminton Federation's sustainability goals. Several manufacturers have already introduced synthetic shuttlecocks with positive market feedback [6]. - The market is also witnessing a rise in the sales of nylon and plastic shuttlecocks, although they do not match the performance of natural feather shuttlecocks, particularly for professional players [10].

Investment Rating - The report adjusts the investment rating for Li Ning to "Recommended" based on the company's resilient operational capabilities and strategic execution despite short-term performance pressures [3]. Core Views - Li Ning's revenue for the first half of 2025 was CNY 14.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, while net profit attributable to equity holders decreased by 11.0% to CNY 1.74 billion [1][2]. - The company is expected to maintain stable revenue growth in 2025, focusing on core product categories such as running, basketball, women's sports, outdoor activities, and badminton [3]. - The company aims to enhance its professional sports brand image and prepare for future structural market opportunities with healthy inventory and strong cash flow [3]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2025H1, footwear revenue reached CNY 8.23 billion, up 4.93% year-on-year, accounting for 55.55% of total revenue, while apparel revenue fell by 3.39% to CNY 5.19 billion, representing 35.05% of total revenue [1]. - Gross margin for 2025H1 was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased discounts in the direct sales channel [2]. - The net profit margin was 11.7%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, affected by higher expenses and impairment losses [2]. Cash Flow and Inventory Management - Operating cash flow for 2025H1 was CNY 2.41 billion, exceeding the current profit, indicating strong cash flow management [2]. - Inventory turnover ratio was 3.6 months, with new products accounting for 87% of the inventory, maintaining a leading position in the industry [2]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts stable revenue for the full year of 2025, with net profit estimates for 2025-2027 being CNY 2.605 billion, CNY 2.985 billion, and CNY 3.244 billion, respectively [3][4]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 18.74, 16.36, and 15.05 times, respectively [3].

Core Insights - The outdoor brand market in China is experiencing rapid growth, driven by a shift towards outdoor lifestyles and social experiences, with the market expected to exceed 500 billion RMB by 2025 [2][5][11] - The outdoor sports market in China has transitioned from a niche segment to a mainstream cultural phenomenon, with increasing consumer demand for high-performance products that cater to various activities and settings [7][9][18] - The rise of social media has significantly boosted interest in outdoor activities, with specific segments like cycling and fishing projected to see explosive growth, with some areas expected to exceed 100% growth [11][13] Market Dynamics - The outdoor market in China is projected to surpass 150.4 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 23% growth rate, indicating a shift from rapid growth to a more refined market approach [5][20] - Over 20 international outdoor brands have entered the Chinese market in the past three years, alongside more than 10 local brands, leading to increased competition and market saturation [20][23] - Local brands are increasingly targeting the high-end market, with average product prices rising by 25%-65% among the top 30 local outdoor brands [24][25] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are shifting their focus from luxury brands to high-performance outdoor products, valuing functionality and experience over mere brand prestige [16][18] - The outdoor lifestyle is becoming a significant aspect of social interaction among urban professionals, with outdoor gear symbolizing health and community connection [18][29] - The demand for outdoor products is evolving, with consumers preferring comprehensive lifestyle solutions rather than individual items [9][16] Competitive Landscape - The outdoor market is becoming increasingly crowded, with both high-end and mid-range brands competing for market share, leading to potential product homogenization [20][23] - Brands are focusing on differentiation through localized services, scene adaptation, and supply chain efficiency to maintain a competitive edge [27][29] - The market is expected to continue to segment, with a focus on high-quality, stylish, and functional products that meet specific consumer needs [28][31]

Core Insights - The four major sports brands in Hong Kong, Anta Sports, Li Ning, Xtep International, and 361 Degrees, all achieved revenue growth in the first half of 2025, but profit performance varied significantly [1][8] - Increased discounting has become a common strategy among these companies, impacting profit growth and gross margins [1][8] - The industry is witnessing a trend towards "opening large stores" and professional upgrades [1][8] Revenue and Growth - Anta Sports led with a revenue of 38.54 billion yuan, growing at 14.26%, while Li Ning, Xtep International, and 361 Degrees reported revenues of 14.82 billion yuan, 6.838 billion yuan, and 5.705 billion yuan, with growth rates of 3.29%, 7.14%, and 10.96% respectively [2] - Over the past three years, except for Anta Sports, the other three brands have shown a decline in growth rates [2] - Anta Sports has maintained double-digit revenue growth for four consecutive years, but its main brands, Anta and FILA, have seen growth rates drop to single digits, with over 10% growth driven by outdoor brands like Descente and Kolon [2] Online Sales Performance - Online channels have become a common growth highlight for all four companies, although they have negatively impacted gross margins [2][3] - In the first half of 2025, online revenue growth rates for Anta Sports, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees were 17.6%, 7.4%, and 45% respectively [2] - The online revenue share for Anta Sports, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees stands at 34.8%, 29%, and 31.8% respectively, indicating the importance of online business [3] Gross Margin Analysis - Anta Sports' gross margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 63.37%, attributed to increased costs in professional categories and higher online discounts [3] - Li Ning's gross margin fell by 0.4 percentage points to 50.04%, due to changes in channel structure and intensified promotional discounts [3] - 361 Degrees experienced a unique situation where its gross margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 41.5%, driven by a "price for volume" strategy [3] Net Profit Performance - The net profit performance among the four brands showed divergence, with Anta Sports and 361 Degrees facing slowing growth, while Li Ning experienced a decline [5] - Li Ning's net profit for the first half of 2025 was 1.737 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.99% year-on-year [5] - Anta Sports reported a net profit of 7.031 billion yuan, down 8.9%, but excluding the impact of Amer Sports' listing, the net profit grew by 14.5% [5] Industry Trends - The industry is characterized by a significant trend towards specialization and upgrading, particularly in the competitive running shoe market [6][7] - All four brands are focusing on original research and development to create and upgrade their flagship running shoe IPs [6] - The trend of "opening large stores" is evident, with flagship stores exceeding 1,000 square meters, offering a mix of sales, experience, and social interaction [7]

Core Viewpoint - This year marks a significant year for Anta with aggressive acquisition activities, including the purchase of JACK WOLFSKIN and investment in MUSINSA China, raising questions about its strategic focus on sports [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Strategy - Anta's CEO, Ding Shizhong, emphasized that acquisitions are the answer to three strategic questions posed by the market: the necessity of Anta, how to deepen its multi-brand differentiation strategy, and how to create shareholder value through optimal capital allocation [2][4]. - The company has pursued multiple acquisitions this year, including JACK WOLFSKIN and MUSINSA China, with rumors of potential acquisitions of Reebok, Puma, and Canada Goose, indicating a more aggressive approach compared to past strategies [4][7]. - Anta's acquisition of JACK WOLFSKIN for $290 million aims to strengthen its outdoor segment and leverage the brand's existing 451 stores primarily in Europe and Asia [10]. Group 2: Global Expansion Challenges - Anta faces significant challenges in its global expansion efforts, particularly in Southeast Asia, where it aims to achieve $1.5 billion in revenue by 2028, but has yet to make substantial progress [5][11]. - The company currently operates 249 overseas stores, which is only 2% of its total 13,000 stores, indicating a slow pace of international growth [12][19]. - Anta's overseas revenue contribution remains low, with estimates suggesting that its overseas stores generate only about $1 million in revenue each [13]. Group 3: Competitive Pressure - Anta's main brand is under pressure from Li Ning, which has secured a partnership with the Chinese sports delegation for the 2025-2028 period, raising concerns about Anta's competitive position [6][23]. - Despite Anta's overall revenue exceeding 100 billion RMB, the company lacks a standout brand, with its main brand generating 16.95 billion RMB and FILA at 14.18 billion RMB, showing no significant gap compared to Li Ning's 14.8 billion RMB [20][22]. - FILA, once a cash cow for Anta, has faced challenges, including negative growth in 2022 and being the only brand within Anta's portfolio to report a decline in the third quarter of 2024 [26][27].

Summary of Li Ning Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Ning (2331.HK) - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer - **Market Cap**: US$6,323 million - **Current Price**: HK$19.70 - **Price Target**: HK$25.00, representing a 27% upside from the current price [7][20] Key Points Financial Performance and Guidance - **Sales Growth**: Li Ning's sales growth is influenced by China's macroeconomic environment, with conservative assumptions baked into forecasts [1][3] - **2025 Guidance**: The company maintains guidance for stable sales and high single-digit net profit margin (NPM) for 2025, targeting over 10% NPM in the long term [9][22] - **1H25 Performance**: Reported net profit (NP) decreased by 11% year-over-year, with a projected double-digit decline in reported NP for 2025 [3][22] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: GPM contracted by 0.4 percentage points to 50% in 1H25, with expectations of further contraction in 2H25 due to deeper discounts [3][20] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - **Market Share**: Li Ning holds a leading market share in basketball in China, with plans to launch new shoes at a lower price to expand its customer base [10][11] - **Product Categories**: Professional products contributed over 60% of total revenue in 1H25, with running products showing a CAGR of over 20% compared to the industry average of ~9% [10][11] - **Challenges**: Bears argue that Li Ning's slower growth compared to peers, single brand focus, and fierce competition hinder brand differentiation [2][3] Operational Strategy - **Cost Management**: The company has improved control over advertising and promotion (A&P), staffing, and leases, leading to a core operating profit (OP) beat in 1H25 [4][21] - **Organizational Changes**: Li Ning has established category business units to drive growth, although this may introduce inefficiencies in merchandising and marketing [11][12] Marketing and Brand Strategy - **Marketing Initiatives**: Li Ning's partnership with athletes, including a deal with COC and sponsorship of NBA player Hansen Yang, aims to enhance brand storytelling and restore brand momentum [5][10] - **Product Mix Improvement**: The company is focusing on enhancing its product mix, particularly in functional apparel, to better align with market demands [10][11] Financial Estimates and Valuation - **Earnings Estimates**: Adjusted NP estimates for 2025 are projected at Rmb3,345 million, reflecting a 17% increase from previous estimates [24][25] - **Valuation Metrics**: Li Ning is currently trading at 16-17x 2025 P/E, which is not considered cheap by some analysts [3][22] - **Impairment Losses**: Impairment from investment properties is expected to continue affecting NP through 2027, with a projected NPM of 9.4%, 10.2%, and 11.1% for 2025-2027 [22][24] Risks and Considerations - **Operational Expenses**: Operating expenses are expected to rise in 2H25 due to Olympic-related costs and higher labor costs from stock-based compensation [12][20] - **Tax Rate**: The tax rate increased to 33% in 1H25, influenced by higher withholding tax and non-cash charges, with expectations of a continued rise in 2025 [14][20] Conclusion - Li Ning is positioned for potential margin recovery and growth, supported by strategic marketing initiatives and improved operational efficiency. However, challenges from macroeconomic conditions and competitive pressures remain significant factors to monitor [1][4][22]

Core Insights - The financial reports for the first half of 2025 from China's four major sportswear companies, Anta, Li Ning, Xtep, and 361 Degrees, reveal significant disparities in performance, with Anta leading in revenue and Xtep showing the fastest profit growth [1][2]. Revenue Performance - Anta achieved a record revenue of 38.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, surpassing the combined revenue of Li Ning, Xtep, and 361 Degrees [2][3]. - Li Ning's revenue grew by 3.3% to 14.82 billion yuan, while Xtep reported a revenue of 6.84 billion yuan, up 7.1%. 361 Degrees saw an 11% increase in revenue to 5.705 billion yuan [2][3]. Profitability Analysis - Anta's net profit reached 7.031 billion yuan, nearly double that of the other three companies combined [3]. - Xtep's net profit grew by 21.5% to 910 million yuan, marking the highest growth rate among the four companies. 361 Degrees' net profit increased by 8.6% to 860 million yuan, while Li Ning's net profit fell by 11% to 1.737 billion yuan [3]. Strategic Focus and Business Lines - Anta continues to implement a "single focus, multi-brand, global" strategy, with its core brand revenue increasing by 5.4% to 16.95 billion yuan and FILA's revenue rising by 8.6% to 14.18 billion yuan [4][5]. - Li Ning is investing heavily in top-tier professional sports resources and increasing R&D spending by 8.7%, focusing on running, basketball, and training categories, which account for 67% of retail sales [5]. - Xtep is concentrating on the running segment, with its high-end running shoe brand Saucony achieving a 32.5% revenue increase to 785 million yuan, representing 11.5% of total revenue [5][6]. - 361 Degrees is pursuing a strategy of "professionalization, youthfulness, and internationalization," with its children's business and e-commerce showing rapid growth [6]. Operational Challenges - Anta's average inventory turnover days increased from 114 to 136 days, indicating rising inventory pressure. The overall gross margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 63.4% due to a higher contribution from lower-margin e-commerce and footwear products [8]. - Li Ning reported a net cash inflow of 2.41 billion yuan, with a cash cycle of 31 days, but faced challenges from reduced offline foot traffic impacting sales [9]. - Xtep's main brand revenue growth slowed to 4.5%, below the previous year's 6.6%, with Saucony not yet sufficiently supporting its "second growth curve" despite its high growth rate [10].