港股茶饮股沪上阿姨(02589.HK)暗盘涨超65%，据港股孖展超购结果显示，沪上阿姨超购倍率超3400 倍，申购额超940亿元。 ...

加盟模式下的中价茶饮市场崛起 沪上阿姨作为国内知名的连锁茶饮品牌，将于2025年5月8日在港交所正式挂牌上市。自4月28日启动招股以来，打 新热情高涨，截至5月6日，沪上阿姨孖展申购倍数超3400倍，申购额超940亿港元，可跻身港股历史超额认购第8 位。 如此高的超额认购倍数，与近期港股茶饮板块的热度不无关系。2025年以来，已有古茗、蜜雪集团、霸王茶姬等 茶饮股上市，且表现不错，由蜜雪冰城带起来的港股打新热，让沪上阿姨也吸引了不少资金参与。 目前现制茶饮行业在下沉市场和海外市场仍具有巨大潜力。沪上阿姨的增长也契合了这一行业趋势，其2022 - 2024年的商品交易总额（GMV）分别为60.68亿元、97.32亿元和107.36亿元，显示出强劲的增长势头，为投资者 增强信心。 不可忽视的长期增长挑战 然而，沪上阿姨也面临着一些挑战。新茶饮市场竞争异常激烈，整体增速放缓，价格战频发，可能侵蚀沪上阿姨 的利润空间。其业务高度依赖加盟商的运营表现和忠诚度，加盟商网络的健康状况近期出现波动信号，闭店数量 和流失率值得关注。2024年上半年，沪上阿姨新开1184间门店，同比下降20.6%，同期还关了531间门店，同比增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent IPO of Hu Shang A Yi has generated significant interest in the Hong Kong stock market, with a subscription multiple of 3447.33 times and a subscription amount exceeding 94 billion HKD, indicating strong demand for tea beverage stocks [1][2]. Company Overview - Hu Shang A Yi is positioned as the fourth largest fresh tea beverage network in China, focusing on expanding into lower-tier cities through a franchise model [2][3]. - The company plans to utilize the funds raised from the IPO for digital upgrades, product development, and supply chain enhancement [2]. Growth Metrics - The number of Hu Shang A Yi stores has rapidly increased from 5,307 in 2022 to 7,789 in 2023, with a target of reaching 9,176 stores by the end of 2024, reflecting an annual expansion rate of approximately 2,000 stores [2][3]. - The franchise model has been a key driver of growth, with franchise store numbers increasing from 5,244 in 2022 to 7,756 in 2023, marking a growth rate of 47.9% in 2023 [3]. Financial Performance - The company's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) has shown robust growth, increasing from 6.068 billion CNY in 2022 to 9.732 billion CNY in 2023, representing year-on-year growth rates of 45.8% and 60.4%, respectively [3]. - Revenue figures for Hu Shang A Yi from 2022 to 2024 are 2.199 billion CNY, 3.348 billion CNY, and 3.285 billion CNY, while adjusted net profits are 154 million CNY, 416 million CNY, and 418 million CNY, indicating a strong financial trajectory [3]. Investment Interest - The IPO attracted two cornerstone investors, who collectively subscribed to approximately 9.2155 million USD of the offering, with significant contributions from Yingfeng Holdings and Huabao Shares [3].

Macro Overview - The People's Bank of China will have a total of 16,178 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing this week, with 10,870 billion yuan maturing on Tuesday and 5,308 billion yuan on Wednesday [3] - The central bank will also release social financing and credit data at unspecified times this week [3] Industry Dynamics - On May 7, the U.S. EIA will release oil inventory data and a monthly short-term energy outlook report [5] - On May 8, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce interest rate decisions, followed by a press conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [5] - On May 9, several Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, will deliver speeches [5] - On May 7, China will report its foreign exchange reserves for April [5] - On May 9, China's General Administration of Customs will release April import and export data, and the Ministry of Finance plans to issue 71 billion yuan in long-term special bonds for the first time [5] - On May 10, China will publish monthly reports on CPI and PPI [5] - On May 6, Elon Musk's Grok 3.5 model was unveiled [5] - On May 7, Lenovo will hold its 2025 Innovation Technology Conference in Shanghai [5] - On May 8, the 27th Beijing Science and Technology Expo will take place at the National Convention Center [5] - On May 9, the 25th China Retail Industry Expo will be held at the Shenzhen International Convention and Exhibition Center [5] - On May 7, BeiGene (06160.HK) will announce its earnings [5] - On May 8, SMIC (00981.HK) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) will release their earnings, and "Hushang Ayi" (02589.HK) will be listed [5]

Core Viewpoint - The new tea beverage brand "Hushang Ayi" is set to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the fifth new tea brand to list after successful IPOs of competitors like Nayuki and Mixue Ice City, with market attention focused on its performance amid previous listing challenges in the sector [1][2]. Expansion Strategy - Hushang Ayi has rapidly expanded its store network from 5,307 at the end of 2022 to an expected 9,176 by the end of 2024, with 99.7% of these stores operated by franchisees, indicating a light-asset operational model that facilitates market penetration [1][6]. - The brand strategically targets lower-tier markets, claiming a strong market position in mid-priced tea beverage stores across over 300 cities in China, with a significant number of stores located in third-tier and below cities [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The tea beverage industry is experiencing a shift towards stock competition, with Hushang Ayi aiming to capture market share through a multi-brand strategy and low-price model, particularly in underdeveloped markets [3][9]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with numerous brands lacking significant differentiation, leading to potential challenges in maintaining market share [9]. Financial Performance - Hushang Ayi's average single-store GMV decreased from RMB 1.6 million in 2023 to RMB 1.4 million in 2024, with total revenue slightly declining by 1.9% to RMB 3.285 billion, attributed to reduced income from franchise-related and self-operated stores [6][8]. - Despite the decline in average GMV, approximately 48.8% of new stores in 2024 were opened by existing franchisees, indicating a strong willingness to reinvest within the franchise system [6]. Franchise Model - The franchise model has allowed Hushang Ayi to expand rapidly, with 96.5% of its revenue coming from franchise operations, but it also poses risks related to quality control and operational oversight [6][7]. - The company mandates that franchisees source most ingredients from its centralized procurement platform, which includes a comprehensive supply chain network [7][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that 2025 will mark a critical juncture for the tea and coffee sectors, with increasing competition and a focus on supply chain efficiency and product differentiation becoming essential for sustainable growth [8][9]. - Hushang Ayi has begun exploring international markets, although it currently operates only one overseas store, highlighting the potential for future expansion [8].

Core Viewpoint - The listing of the tea beverage brand "沪上阿姨" marks a significant milestone in the capitalization process of the new tea beverage industry, reflecting the increasing competition and investment interest in this sector [1][2]. Company Summary - "沪上阿姨" plans to issue approximately 2.41 million H-shares at a price range of HKD 95.57 to HKD 113.12, aiming to raise over HKD 2.7 billion, with a potential market capitalization exceeding HKD 30 billion [1]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 40% in revenue over the past three years and has surpassed 6,000 stores, particularly excelling in lower-tier markets [2]. - The IPO includes a 15% over-allotment option, which could increase the total issuance to about 2.77 million shares [1]. Industry Summary - The IPO of "沪上阿姨" is significant as it is the second independent tea beverage brand to go public after "奈雪的茶," serving as a barometer for market valuation attitudes towards the tea beverage sector [2]. - The timing of the IPO is strategic, coinciding with the post-May Day holiday consumer market recovery, which is expected to enhance market attention [1]. - The pricing reflects a valuation logic where the lower limit corresponds to a 2023 price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 35 times, while the upper limit approaches 40 times, indicating a higher valuation compared to traditional dining enterprises but at a slight discount to similar listed tea brands [1].

Core Viewpoint - Hu Shang Ayi (Shanghai) Industrial Co., Ltd. is launching an IPO in Hong Kong, facing challenges such as declining revenue and profit, while heavily relying on a franchise model for its business expansion [2][3][9]. Group 1: IPO Details - The company plans to issue 2.4113 million shares at a price range of HKD 95.57 to HKD 113.12, with an expected listing date of May 8 [2][3]. - Two cornerstone investors, Yingfeng Holdings and Huabao Holdings, have subscribed for shares totaling approximately USD 921.55 million (around HKD 71.49 million) [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Hu Shang Ayi reported a revenue of RMB 32.85 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, and a net profit of RMB 3.29 billion, down 15.2% [9][10]. - The gross profit margin increased to 31.3% in 2024, but the net profit margin decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 10% [10]. - The company's total GMV reached RMB 107 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 10%, although average single-store GMV fell by 12% to RMB 1.37 million [11]. Group 3: Business Model and Franchise Dependency - As of the end of 2024, 99.7% of Hu Shang Ayi's 9,176 stores were operated by franchisees, indicating a strong reliance on the franchise model [13][14]. - Revenue from franchise-related activities accounted for 96.5% of total income in 2024, highlighting the company's dependency on this model for growth [14][15]. Group 4: Cash Dividends and Founder Earnings - The company distributed significant cash dividends during its IPO period, with a total of RMB 2.19 billion in cash dividends declared, of which over 80% went to the founders, Dan Weijun and Zhou Rongrong [7][9]. Group 5: Food Safety Concerns - Recent reports have raised food safety issues, including the use of expired ingredients in products, which could impact the brand's reputation and consumer trust [16][20]. - Complaints regarding product quality and customer service have been prevalent, with numerous reports of unsatisfactory experiences from consumers [21][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "5.5" for the IPO, based on various criteria [6][7]. Core Insights - The company, Hu Shang A Yi, is a leading chain in the fresh tea beverage market in China, operating through a franchise model with product prices ranging from 7 to 22 RMB [1]. - Revenue projections for 2022, 2023, and 2024 are 2.2 billion, 3.35 billion, and 3.28 billion RMB, with growth rates of 34%, 52%, and -1.9% respectively [1]. - The company has a significant market presence, with a total of 9,176 stores as of December 2024, 50% of which are located in tier-three cities and below [2]. - The fresh tea beverage market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a market size of 258.5 billion RMB and a growth rate of 19% [3]. Company Overview - Hu Shang A Yi has established a robust supply chain network across China, including 12 major logistics warehouses and various cold chain facilities [4]. - The brand has gained national recognition since its inception in 2013, leveraging social media and collaborations to enhance its market presence [4]. - The company has seen significant store growth, with net increases of 1,531, 2,482, and 1,387 stores in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, indicating a strong expansion strategy [1]. Industry Status and Outlook - The fresh beverage market in China is projected to continue its rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.5% from 2018 to 2023 [3]. - Hu Shang A Yi ranks first in store count in northern China and holds a 4.6% market share by GMV, placing it fifth overall in the industry [3]. Investment Considerations - The IPO price range is set between 95.57 and 113.12 HKD, with a post-IPO market capitalization estimated at 10 to 11.8 billion HKD [6][7]. - The company has secured cornerstone investors, including Yingfeng Holdings and Huabao, which have committed to 24.7% of the total issuance [6].

沪上阿姨香港IPO正在进行招股，预期5月6日定价，5月8日开始在港交所交易。截至4月29日早上，综 合券商数据，沪上阿姨获券商借出孖展96.5亿港元，以公开发售额2728万港元计，超购近352倍。(界面) ...

Group 1 - The company "沪上阿姨" has officially launched its IPO, planning to globally offer 2.41134 million H-shares, with a price range of HKD 95.57 to HKD 113.12 per share, and is expected to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 8 [1][3] - The company has introduced two cornerstone investors, with a total subscription amount of approximately USD 9.2155 million (around HKD 71.49 million) [3] - As of the end of 2023, "沪上阿姨" ranks fourth in China's ready-to-drink tea industry with 9,176 stores, and is the leading mid-priced tea brand in northern China, with 99.7% of its stores being franchise operations [3] Group 2 - The company focuses on lower-tier markets, with nearly half of its stores located in third-tier cities and below, which are expected to see the fastest GMV growth from 2023 to 2028 [3] - The projected GMV for 2024 is CNY 10.7 billion, a 10% increase year-on-year, despite a decline in average GMV per store from CNY 1.6 million in 2023 to CNY 1.4 million [3] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 30.4% to 31.3% due to economies of scale [3] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the price war in the tea beverage industry will ease by 2025, allowing leading brands to expand while weaker brands may face closure risks [3] - "沪上阿姨" is expected to leverage its first-mover advantage in lower-tier markets and its supply chain integration capabilities to navigate industry differentiation [3] - The company plans to invest further in digital tools and smart manufacturing equipment to enhance supply chain efficiency and product quality [3]