国信证券近日发布金属行业Q4投资策略：出口管制再升级，北稀25Q4精矿采购价环比 +37%。商务部对含有中国成分的部分境外稀土相关物项和稀土相关技术实施出口管制。供 给方面，由于关税原因，MP资源于今年4月宣布不再向中国出口稀土精矿；价格方面， 25Q3氧化镨钕均价为54.01万元/吨，环比+25%；北方稀土上调四季度稀土精矿交易均价为 不含税2.62万元/吨，环比+37.13%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 工业金属：布局有色金属行业格局改善、价格上涨的机会 钴：刚果(金)配额制落地，钴价有望迎来长牛。刚果(金)出口配额低于市场预期，或造 成全球钴原料市场在未来2年内出现明显缺口，长期价格中枢抬升。 小金属：战略属性增强，小金属多头逻辑强化 稀土：出口管制再升级，北稀25Q4精矿采购价环比+37%。商务部对含有中国成分的部 分境外稀土相关物项和稀土相关技术实施出口管制。供给方面，由于关税原因，MP资源于 今年4月宣布不再向中国出口稀土精矿；价格方面，25Q3氧化镨钕均价为54.01万元/吨，环 比+25%；北方稀土上调四季度稀土精矿交易均价为不含税2.62万元/吨，环比+37.13%。 铜：大型铜矿减产，铜价重心 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the short-selling ratios and amounts for various companies, indicating significant market sentiment towards these stocks [1][2] Short-Selling Ratios - AIA Group Limited (友邦保险-R) and Anta Sports Products Limited (安踏体育-R) both have a short-selling ratio of 100.00%, indicating extreme bearish sentiment [1] - China Mobile Limited (中国移动-R) has a short-selling ratio of 84.48%, suggesting a notable level of short interest [1] Short-Selling Amounts - Alibaba Group Holding Limited (阿里巴巴-SW) leads in short-selling amount with 6.289 billion, followed by Xiaomi Corporation (小米集团-W) at 4.095 billion and Tencent Holdings Limited (腾讯控股) at 3.779 billion [2] - Other notable companies in the top short-selling amounts include Meituan (美团-W) at 1.692 billion and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (中芯国际) at 1.525 billion [2] Deviation Values - The highest deviation value is for Xinyuan Renewable Energy (协合新能源) at 40.24%, indicating a significant difference from its historical short-selling average [1][2] - Other companies with high deviation values include Jiangsu Nanjing Highway (江苏宁沪高速公路) at 26.40% and AIA Group Limited (友邦保险-R) at 26.17% [1][2]

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are Green Power Environmental (70.05%), China Telecom (69.96%), and COSCO Shipping Energy (68.73%) [1][2] - The companies with the largest increase in holding amounts over the last five trading days are Zijin Mining (+1 billion), Kuaishou (+0.981 billion), and Pop Mart (+0.624 billion) [1][2] - The companies with the largest decrease in holding amounts over the last five trading days are SMIC (-2.258 billion), Hua Hong Semiconductor (-1.222 billion), and Alibaba (-0.714 billion) [1][4] Hong Kong Stock Connect Holding Ratios - Green Power Environmental (01330) has a holding of 283 million shares, representing 70.05% [2] - China Telecom (00728) has a holding of 9.711 billion shares, representing 69.96% [2] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) has a holding of 891 million shares, representing 68.73% [2] - Other notable companies include Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) at 68.48% and China Shenhua (01088) at 67.25% [2] Recent Increases in Holdings - Zijin Mining (02899) saw an increase of 1 billion in holding amount, with a change of 29.19 million shares [2][4] - Kuaishou (01024) experienced an increase of 0.981 billion, with a change of 12.19 million shares [2][4] - Pop Mart (09992) had an increase of 0.624 billion, with a change of 2.39 million shares [2][4] Recent Decreases in Holdings - SMIC (00981) had a decrease of 2.258 billion in holding amount, with a change of 28.18 million shares [4] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) saw a decrease of 1.222 billion, with a change of 13.86 million shares [4] - Alibaba (09988) experienced a decrease of 0.714 billion, with a change of 4.39 million shares [4]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining has successfully completed the acquisition of the Raygorodok gold mine in Kazakhstan for $1.2 billion, enhancing its gold mining portfolio to nine mines and supporting its long-term production goals [1][2][6]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition price for the RG gold mine was $1.2 billion, approximately 8.6 billion yuan [2][4]. - The transaction was finalized on October 10, 2025, after all conditions were met [4]. - The RG gold mine is expected to produce an average of 6 tons of gold annually from 2023 to 2024, contributing to the company's target of 100-110 tons of gold by 2028 [2][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's net profit for the first half of 2025 exceeded 23 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of over 50% [3][9]. - The company's revenue for the same period reached 167.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [8]. - The gold segment accounted for 49.1% of the company's sales revenue, becoming the largest profit source [8]. Group 3: Market Response - Following the acquisition and the rise in gold prices, Zijin Mining's market capitalization surpassed 830 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of approximately 450 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [11]. - The company's stock prices have more than doubled, with A-shares closing at 31.30 yuan and H-shares at 34.24 HKD as of October 13, 2025 [11]. Group 4: Gold Market Context - Global gold prices have surged, with spot gold exceeding $4,000 per ounce and reaching new highs 37 times in 2025 [3][8]. - The increase in gold prices has positively impacted Zijin Mining's operational performance, with both production and sales volumes rising significantly [8][9].

Core Insights - Kuaishou-W (01024), Zijin Mining (02899), and Pop Mart (09992) led the market in net inflows, with amounts of 1.064 billion, 1.043 billion, and 0.621 billion respectively [1][2] - SMIC (00981), Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), and Alibaba-W (09988) experienced the highest net outflows, with amounts of -2.458 billion, -1.248 billion, and -0.767 billion respectively [1][2] - In terms of net inflow ratios, Reshaping Energy (02570), Haohai Biological Technology (06826), and China Overseas Macro Group (00081) topped the list with ratios of 83.86%, 62.63%, and 56.42% respectively [1][2] Net Inflow Rankings - The top three stocks by net inflow were Kuaishou-W (01024) with 1.064 billion (18.28%), Zijin Mining (02899) with 1.043 billion (20.22%), and Pop Mart (09992) with 0.621 billion (15.19%) [2] - Other notable inflows included Jiangxi Copper (00358) at 0.559 billion (19.86%) and Lenovo Group (00992) at 0.474 billion (16.74%) [2] Net Outflow Rankings - The top three stocks by net outflow were SMIC (00981) with -2.458 billion (-9.27%), Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) with -1.248 billion (-9.51%), and Alibaba-W (09988) with -0.767 billion (-2.78%) [2] - Other significant outflows included Yingfu Fund (02800) at -0.490 billion (-3.98%) and Tencent Holdings (00700) at -0.466 billion (-4.78%) [2] Net Inflow Ratios - Reshaping Energy (02570) led with a net inflow ratio of 83.86% and a net inflow of 51.7014 million [3] - Haohai Biological Technology (06826) followed with a ratio of 62.63% and a net inflow of 3.9564 million [3] - China Overseas Macro Group (00081) had a ratio of 56.42% with a net inflow of 1.51788 million [3]

Group 1 - Bristol Myers Squibb agrees to acquire Orbital Therapeutics for $1.5 billion in cash to enhance its cell therapy product portfolio, focusing on next-generation RNA drugs [1] - Fonda Holdings plans to acquire 100% of Shanghai Guanhua Medical Technology for RMB 270 million, which specializes in clinical trial technology services [2] - Shengxing Holdings announces the acquisition of machinery from A and B sellers for a total of HKD 6.45 million and HKD 6.2 million, respectively, along with a financing lease agreement [3] Group 2 - Jiufu Lai completes the acquisition of 100% equity in Henan Lixuan Network Technology, with all conditions met for the transaction [4] - Zijin Mining completes the acquisition of 100% equity in the Raygorodok gold mine project in Kazakhstan, which has rich resources [5] - Luxshare Precision announces progress in acquiring equity and assets from subsidiaries of Wentech Technology [6] Group 3 - Tianjin Jieqiang Power Equipment completes the acquisition of 51% equity in Shandong Carbon Seeking New Materials as part of its strategic development plan [7] - Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) is in advanced negotiations to acquire Aligned Data Centers from Macquarie Group, with a potential transaction value of up to $40 billion [8]

Core Insights - The global gold market experienced a significant surge during the 2025 "Double Festival" holiday, with London gold prices rising nearly $200 in a week, breaking the $4000 per ounce barrier for the first time [1][4][6] - Domestic gold prices in China also saw a sharp increase, with major brands reporting price hikes of around 46 to 50 yuan per gram compared to the end of September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of nearly 400 yuan per gram [1][7] Gold Price Surge - The price of London gold rose from $3857.83 per ounce on September 30 to $4040.42 per ounce by October 8, marking a historic breakthrough [1][4] - COMEX gold futures also saw a similar rise, increasing from $3874.3 per ounce to $4060.6 per ounce during the same period [4][6] Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the recent surge in gold prices to factors such as increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government shutdown [3][6] - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive, with expectations of continued upward movement as central banks maintain significant net purchases of gold [6][7] Stock Market Reaction - Following the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose above 3900 points, with the precious metals sector experiencing a collective surge, with several gold-related stocks hitting their daily limit [4][6] - The overall precious metals sector saw a significant increase of 9.28% on the first trading day after the holiday [4] Consumer Behavior - The rapid increase in gold prices has led to changes in consumer purchasing behavior, with some consumers hesitant to buy at current prices, while others are considering selling their holdings [9] - Retailers are adjusting their pricing strategies in response to the market changes, with some indicating that the one-price gold jewelry may soon see a price adjustment [9]

Core Views - The multi-metal strategic attributes continue to strengthen, driving value reassessment in the non-ferrous metal industry [1] - The investment rating remains "outperform" [2] Tin Market Analysis - Global exchange visible inventory has significantly decreased, with a peak of 22,763 tons in May 2024, followed by a reduction to below 9,000 tons by the end of 2022 [5][73] - The price of tin is expected to rise due to the limited number of new global tin mining projects, with most expected to come online after 2027 [51] Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs, driven by signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, with expectations for further increases in gold prices through 2025 [5] Energy Metals - The implementation of a quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to lead to a long-term bull market for cobalt prices [6] - Lithium prices are rebounding, supported by strong demand in the global energy storage market, with supply disruptions still present [6] Minor Metals - The strategic attributes of minor metals are strengthening, with rare earth export controls tightening and significant price increases observed [6] - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to increased demand and supply constraints [8] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise due to large copper mine production cuts, with a focus on monitoring inventory changes [7][9] - Aluminum production in China is nearing its peak, with a fragile balance in the market that could shift to shortages if demand increases [7][32] Recommended Investment Targets - The report recommends a diversified portfolio including companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Northern Rare Earth [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant surge in gold and silver prices, reaching historical highs, driven by increased demand amid economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Price Surge - Gold prices have recently soared, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.6% to surpass $4100 per ounce, reaching a peak of $4104.3 per ounce, marking a new historical high [1][3]. - Silver also experienced a substantial increase, with prices rising over 3% to a high of $51.71 per ounce, also a historical peak [3]. Market Reactions - The surge in gold prices has led to a significant rise in A-share gold concept stocks, with companies like Western Gold hitting the daily limit, and others like Zhaojin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold seeing substantial gains [3]. Economic Factors - Analysts attribute the rising demand for gold to several factors, including trade tensions, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and concerns over the U.S. government shutdown, which have heightened the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. - UBS and other financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with UBS predicting prices could reach $4200 per ounce in the coming months, and Goldman Sachs increasing its 2026 forecast from $4300 to $4900 per ounce [6]. Central Bank Activities - Central banks have been significant buyers of gold, with a total purchase of 415 tons in the first half of 2025, and record inflows into gold ETFs in September [4]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates that central bank purchases and ETF inflows will continue to support rising gold prices, contributing approximately 19% to price increases [4]. Future Predictions - Analysts predict continued upward momentum for gold prices, with forecasts suggesting potential prices of $4500 per ounce by late 2026 and even $5000 per ounce by 2026 according to Yardeni Research [6]. - The article emphasizes the importance of gold's low correlation with other assets, suggesting that its unique value in global asset allocation warrants strategic consideration [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the A-share market, influenced by political statements and economic data, highlighting the resilience of China's export growth amid trade tensions and the potential for policy adjustments in the near future [1][4][5][6]. Economic Data - China's export growth in September exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, surpassing the forecast of 6.6% and the previous value of 4.4%. Imports also rose by 7.4%, compared to a prior value of 1.3% [5][6]. - Morgan Stanley attributes the strong trade data to the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival, which shifted from September to October in 2025, along with a low base effect [6]. Market Performance - On October 13, A-shares opened significantly lower but recovered slightly by the end of the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.19% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.93% [8]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 23,745.45 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,599.53 billion yuan from the previous day [8]. Sector Analysis - The article notes that sectors such as metals, rare earths, semiconductors, and banking saw significant gains, while automotive and non-bank financial sectors experienced outflows [22][30]. - The rare earth sector saw a surge, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, driven by rising prices of gold and silver [8]. Policy Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that the actual GDP growth rate for the third quarter may remain around 5%, with expectations for the implementation of previously announced policies, but no new easing measures anticipated in the near term [7]. - Analysts expect that the current tariff suspension period may be extended beyond November 10, with limited concessions from both sides in trade negotiations [4][6]. Company Performance - Notable company forecasts include: - Jucheng Technology expects a net profit of 151 million yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 112.94% [20]. - New China Life Insurance anticipates a net profit between 29.986 billion yuan and 34.122 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 45% to 65% [20]. - Chuangjiang New Materials projects a staggering net profit growth of 2057.62% to 2242.56% for the same period [20]. Investment Trends - The article highlights that the main capital inflow was into the non-ferrous metals sector, with Baogang Group leading the net inflow [22]. - The article also mentions that the automotive sector saw significant net outflows, particularly from companies like BYD and Sailis [22].