Core Viewpoint - The Chinese capital market is entering a new phase characterized by vitality and opportunities, driven by technological advancements and a changing global landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Global Context - The global industrial and financial landscape is undergoing profound restructuring, presenting new opportunities for external breakthroughs [2]. - Geopolitical factors are causing instability in the international situation, leading to a reconfiguration of international economic and trade orders [2]. - China's manufacturing sector has shown resilience amidst tariff fluctuations, with a 7.1% increase in exports in the first three quarters of the year [2]. Group 2: Technological Trends - The "technology narrative" in China is improving risk appetite, with significant breakthroughs in industries such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and aerospace [3][4]. - The development of new productive forces is expected to create new opportunities in the capital market [4]. Group 3: Market Characteristics - The shift towards "new" development in the Chinese capital market will lead to continuous optimization of market structure, with the electronic sector's market capitalization surpassing that of the banking sector this year [4]. - The market will increasingly reflect the achievements of China's new economy and align more closely with the internationalization of the economy and industries [4]. Group 4: Economic Functionality - The capital market's role in serving the real economy will support the transition of economic growth drivers, with a moderate recovery expected next year [5]. - The development of new productive forces is anticipated to stabilize China's economic growth over the next five years [5]. Group 5: Institutional Environment - The improvement of the capital market's inclusiveness and adaptability is expected to bring new dynamics to the market ecosystem [5]. - There is significant room for improvement in the allocation of equity assets among Chinese residents compared to developed markets [5].

Core Insights - The 2026 Capital Market Conference hosted by CITIC Securities emphasizes the theme "Striving for a New Journey," highlighting the evolving global context, technological trends, and regulatory environment impacting China's capital markets [1][2] - The conference features over a hundred top scholars, industry experts, and representatives from various sectors, indicating a strong interest in the future of China's capital markets [1] Group 1: Economic and Market Trends - Geopolitical factors are causing instability in the global landscape, while China's international influence is gradually increasing, with a 7.1% growth in exports in the first three quarters of the year, showcasing the resilience of Chinese manufacturing [1][2] - The transition from old to new economic drivers in China is expected to create new opportunities in the capital markets, with a focus on the "technology narrative" improving risk appetite [2] Group 2: Structural Changes in Capital Markets - The optimization of the investment and financing environment is anticipated to lead to a structural transformation in China's capital markets, with an increasing market capitalization share for new productivity sectors [2] - Continuous macro and reform policies are expected to result in a mild recovery of the economy next year, stabilizing the growth center for the next five years [2] Group 3: Market Ecosystem and Investor Behavior - The improvement in the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market regulations is likely to foster a new market ecosystem, enhancing the compatibility between risk appetite and new productivity sectors [2] - There is a notable trend of household savings being converted into investments, with future reforms focusing on creating a more attractive long-term investment environment and improving the supply of quality financial products [2]

三是宏观经济动能切换，资本市场服务实体经济的功能将助力经济增长，预计在宏观政策与改革政策持续发力下，明年我国经济将呈现结构分化下的温和修 复态势，新质生产力的发展将稳定未来五年经济增长。此外，在金融支持实体经济的布局中，科技金融排在首位，科技、产业、金融的良性循环有望催生更 多市场结构性机会。 邹迎光回顾，去年资本市场年会以"站上起跑线"为主题，而过去一年中国资本市场已进入全新阶段，焕发出新的生机与活力。此次以"奋进新征程"为主题， 源于党的二十届四中全会科学研判国际国内形势，对中国经济社会未来五年发展作出顶层设计和战略规划，也赋予了资本市场新时代内涵与发展使命。他强 调，中国资本市场面临的全球背景、科技趋势、制度环境将呈现新特征，需在新征程上稳步奋进。 从全球背景来看，邹迎光指出，全球格局加速演进，产业与金融格局深刻重构，为中国资本市场带来外部契机。在全球治理方面，地缘政治因素虽导致世界 局势动荡、国际经贸秩序重构，但携手构建人类命运共同体的中国智慧和中国方案正获得更多认可，中国的国际影响力、感召力、塑造力持续提升，参与全 球治理与维护海外运营能力不断增强。产业格局上，中国制造在复杂环境中彰显强大韧性，今年 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that A-share companies are transitioning from domestic-focused enterprises to global multinational corporations, indicating a shift in the Chinese capital market from emerging to mature status [1] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Chinese enterprises are expected to enhance their position in the global value chain, converting their share advantages into pricing power, which lays the foundation for a "low volatility slow bull" market in A-shares [1] - The future performance of A-shares will be influenced by global market demand rather than solely domestic demand, with the China-US geopolitical landscape affecting market rhythm and smoothness [1] Group 2 - Three key industry configurations are highlighted: first, the upgrading of resource and traditional manufacturing industries, which will enhance pricing power and profit margins; second, the globalization of Chinese enterprises, significantly expanding profit growth potential and market capitalization ceilings; third, the further commercialization of AI, which will continue to drive trends in the technology sector and amplify the competitive advantages of Chinese companies [2]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint emphasizes the improvement of the institutional environment in China's capital market, focusing on supporting technological innovation and enhancing wealth effects [1] Group 1: Institutional Environment - The capital market's risk appetite is increasingly compatible with new productive forces, indicating a shift towards direct financing methods such as equity and bonds to support high-quality enterprises in their listings [1] - Future reforms will aim to cultivate a market ecosystem characterized by orderly entry and exit, promoting a competitive environment for high-quality development of listed companies [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - There is a significant trend of converting household savings into investments, with the proportion of equity asset allocation having considerable room for growth compared to developed markets [1] - Future reforms will focus on creating a "long money, long investment" institutional environment, enhancing the supply of quality financial products, and guiding listed companies to strengthen investor returns, thereby promoting a virtuous cycle of financing and investment [1]

今日，中信证券2026年资本市场年会在深圳召开。中信证券总经理邹迎光在致辞中表示，去年资本市场 年会，选定的主题叫"站上起跑线"，过去一年来，中国资本市场进入全新阶段，焕发生机活力。此次资 本市场年会，选定的主题叫"奋进新征程"。他表示，"十五五"时期中国资本市场面临的全球背景、科技 趋势、制度环境将呈现新的特征，在新征程上奋进前行。首先，从全球背景看，百年变局加速演进，全 球产业与金融格局深刻重构，有望带来外部破局的新契机。其次，从科技趋势看，更多中国产业迎来关 键突破，中国经济新旧动能转换成效显著，有望带来资本市场的新机遇。最后，从制度环境看，中国资 本市场制度包容性和适应性的提升，以及投资和融资功能的协调，有望带来市场生态的新气象。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that policies are enhancing offline consumption facilities, creating a favorable environment for the development of commercial real estate, with a focus on operational, holding, and renovation aspects [1] - The REITs market is continuously developing, with real estate investment funds experiencing rapid growth after years of stagnation, projected to exceed 220 billion by October 2025 [2] - Long-term capital is expected to increase allocation to quality assets, with a shift towards value-added and opportunistic strategies, particularly favoring long-term rentals and shopping centers [3] Group 2 - There is a significant demand for the renovation of shopping centers, with a high vacancy rate (10%-20%) indicating unique operational value, while the number of shopping centers needing renovation is in the thousands [4] - Head companies in shopping center management are experiencing improved order quality and profitability, but their capacity is limited, leading to a market share distribution where second-tier brands can capture demand [4] - The commercial management industry is anticipated to grow rapidly, with head brands unable to meet market demand, resulting in a fragmented market share [4]

Core Insights - The financial industry is experiencing a cyclical turning point driven by the end of the unilateral downward trend in interest rates [1][2] - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with 10-year government bond yields expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 2.0% starting in 2025, alleviating concerns over "interest spread losses" for financial institutions, particularly insurance companies [1] - All sub-industries are benefiting from this new environment, with insurance, securities, and banking sectors showing signs of recovery and stabilization [1] Industry Analysis - In the insurance sector, the liability-side preset interest rates have been adjusted to align with current asset returns, marking a shift from a loss period to a gain period [1] - The securities industry is seeing a reduction in chaotic price wars due to strong "anti-involution" policies, leading to a stabilization of industry fee rates and a reformation of profit curves [1] - The banking sector is experiencing a clearer stabilization of net interest margins due to the central bank's guidance on lowering funding costs and a slowdown in asset pricing declines [1] Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, economic recovery is expected to drive a rebound in financial demand, with savings shifting towards insurance, increased capital market activity boosting brokerage profits, and improved income from bank wealth management [2] - Insurance funds are anticipated to continue increasing allocations to high-dividend financial stocks, playing a key role in value discovery [2] - Investment strategies should focus on sector rotation during the recovery cycle, with the insurance sector being highlighted for its performance elasticity and long-term logic, while the securities sector is expected to benefit from increased market activity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The financial industry is entering a cyclical turning point, with significant improvements in the overall operating environment expected by 2026 [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - Since 2025, interest rates are expected to stop their unilateral decline, alleviating concerns over insurance industry interest margin losses [1] - The securities industry is stabilizing fee rates under the "anti-involution" policy, while the banking sector is seeing interest margins stabilize [1] - Economic recovery is anticipated to drive a rebound in financial demand, with savings shifting towards insurance, boosting new business growth [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Insurance sector is recommended as a primary area for investment due to its performance elasticity and long-term logic [1] - The securities sector is expected to benefit from increased market activity, with leading companies and potential mid-sized brokerages being noteworthy [1] - The banking sector is highlighted for its solid dividend returns and the value of gradual fundamental recovery [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Insurance funds are expected to act as a stabilizing force in the market, continuing to allocate towards high-dividend financial stocks and leading value discovery [1] - Overall, the financial sector is entering a new upward cycle, indicating a positive outlook for investors [1]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the macroeconomic themes for 2026 will revolve around economic recovery, rising inflation, and the cessation of monetary easing [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Economic recovery will determine the direction of asset allocation [1] - Producer Price Index (PPI) and liquidity will dictate the timing of asset allocation [1] - Changes in the risk-return characteristics of assets will inform tactical responses [1] Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategy - Risk assets are expected to maintain a stronger cost-performance ratio compared to safe-haven assets for 2026 [1]