Core Insights - The importance of the supply chain in the restaurant industry is emphasized, as it connects upstream agricultural products with downstream dining enterprises, directly affecting operational costs and food quality [1] - Haidilao has maintained high standards for its supply chain over its 30 years of operation, focusing on integrity and quality to provide high-quality products to consumers [1] Group 1: Supply Chain Management - Haidilao classifies suppliers into A, B, and C grades based on risk levels, with a focus on managing and supporting high-risk suppliers [1] - The company has conducted approximately 4,000 surprise inspections on food safety projects across its nationwide stores and over 500 flying audits on suppliers, testing nearly 2,000 batches of materials by November 2024 [1] Group 2: Product Quality Assurance - The company has partnered with four bullfrog breeding bases after thorough research in regions like Hunan, Hubei, and Anhui, implementing various improvement measures to standardize breeding practices [2] - Haidilao's winter 2024 new product "浓浓浓菌汤" has received positive consumer feedback, with its main ingredient, mushrooms, sourced from strictly vetted partner factories [2] Group 3: Supplier Support and Training - Haidilao has established a food safety learning ecosystem for suppliers, providing training on food safety and processing standards, along with customized solutions to enhance management and production efficiency [2] - The company ensures traceability in the entire food supply chain, from sourcing to the dining table, by strictly selecting suppliers and providing technical support and talent development [2]

历史上两次AI浪潮，都提醒我们一个残酷的事实：不能落地的AI，是没有未来的。 AI大模型爆火以来，金融、互联网、医疗等高精尖领域，被看作AI落地的温床，数据多、不差钱、信息化程度高，付费能力与意愿也很强。 可不知不觉间，风向悄悄转了。 2025年的连锁门店，成了AI主战场。 西式快餐店里，麦当劳、肯德基掀起了AI竞赛，肯德基推出"车速取 2.0"让车主丝滑取餐，麦当劳就上线对话式"P.AI"，给到店消费者一点小小的AI震 撼。 中式卤味连锁门店，绝味鸭脖在20周年之际，一口气放出了三大智能体，让门店店长和消费者一起AI起来。 竞争白热化的现制饮品，更是争先恐后进行升级。瑞幸的AI智能体接入豆包大模型，蜜雪冰城、茶百道也与第三方数字服务商合作，上线了智能POS、智 能营销等工具，星巴克也在北美门店上线了基于OpenAI平台的生成式AI助手"绿点助手"（Green Dot Assistant）。 不少人就纳闷了：以前总觉得AI该待在科技公司或金融机构的办公室里，帮程序员写代码，帮基金经理分析行情，怎么突然一股脑扎进连锁门店，忙着 做鸡、做鸭、摇奶茶了？ 连锁门店成了今年AI落地最热闹的主战场，这里头藏着哪些行业的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline and rebirth of major companies, drawing parallels to Nietzsche's "Twilight of the Idols," and emphasizes the importance of understanding the lifecycle of businesses [1]. Group 1: Company Analysis - The report analyzes 12 notable companies, focusing on their peaks and challenges, including Pinduoduo and Lululemon, which are rethinking their user base despite differing pricing strategies [2]. - Starbucks and Yonghui are examined for their slow business pace amidst fast-changing market conditions [2]. - Haidilao and Meituan are assessed on how they are adapting in a time when dining costs are rising [2]. - Mixue Ice City is highlighted for its performance in lower-tier markets during challenging times [2]. - Intel's competitive position against TSMC and NVIDIA is questioned regarding its future viability [2]. - Toyota's late entry into the electric vehicle market raises concerns about its competitiveness [2]. - Alphabet's advancements in AI are scrutinized for their impact on the company's intelligence and market position [2]. - The report questions whether Hongkong Land can regain its former glory and if Disney can continue to leverage its intellectual property [2]. Group 2: Report Features - The report is noted for its depth, providing insights from financial data to market trends, and strategic directions to corporate mindsets, making it a valuable resource for industry professionals [4]. - It is designed to save time, allowing readers to grasp essential data points efficiently, compared to traditional methods like reading annual reports [5]. - The report serves practical purposes, helping users understand future industry trends and evaluate the reliability of a company's strategy [6].

Group 1 - The core event "Summer Consumption Season" in Jianyang is set to launch on July 24, 2023, and will run throughout August, aiming to attract global tourists and boost local consumption [2][15] - The event integrates resources from various brands such as Vipshop and Haidilao, focusing on four main activities related to dining, accommodation, transportation, and entertainment [2][15] - Vipshop is offering significant discounts starting from July 17, including brand products at 10% off and a chance to win 50% off coupons, while Haidilao is providing exclusive discounts for customers with valid tickets to the World University Games [4][15] Group 2 - The "Music Beer Parade Season" will take place from July 24 to August 3, transforming the Donglai Impression Sports Center into a nighttime consumption landmark, featuring live music and outdoor movie screenings [7][9] - The event will include a "Bubble Party" sponsored by Yanjing Beer, with themed booths offering food and drinks, and interactive activities to engage visitors [9][10] - Special promotions for travelers arriving at Tianfu Airport include exclusive discounts at restaurants, hotels, and entertainment venues, enhancing the overall visitor experience [10][15] Group 3 - During the World University Games from August 7 to August 17, Jianyang will host a "Summer Market" along the Tuojiang River, creating a vibrant atmosphere with dining, leisure, and entertainment options [11][15] - Core shopping districts will offer exclusive discounts and promotions throughout August, aiming to convert the influx of visitors into increased local consumption [11][15] - The Jianyang Business Bureau emphasizes the multi-dimensional approach of the consumption season, combining online and offline strategies to provide tangible benefits to residents and create a festive atmosphere for the games [15]

Group 1 - The third China International (Foshan) Pre-made Food Industry Conference was held, releasing the "Top 100 Pre-made Food Enterprises in China by 2025" list, with 100 companies from 17 provinces (cities, districts) included [1][2] - Guangdong leads the nation with 21 companies on the list, including Dongguan's Hongjun Catering [1][2] - The ranking is based on data from mainstream e-commerce platforms, corporate financial reports, consumer reputation, media evaluations, product innovation, and other metrics, using the iiMeval big data evaluation model [2] Group 2 - The top-ranked company is Shuanghui Group, followed by well-known brands such as Haidilao, Wens Foodstuff, and others in the top ten [2] - Hongjun Catering, established in 1998, specializes in providing group meal services, catering consulting, kitchen design, and agricultural product distribution, and is noted for introducing robotic operations and standardized management [5] - Dongguan's food industry is rapidly transforming, with over 226 large-scale food enterprises, and the total output value of the food industry expected to exceed 100 billion in 2024 [6]

Core Insights - The 2025 Fortune China 500 list was released, providing insights into the latest development trends of China's largest companies [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Zhuhai Wanda Commercial Management Group Co., Ltd. topped the list with a return on equity (ROE) exceeding 64% [2] - Sails ranked second, while Haidilao took the third position; Nongfu Spring, Moutai, and Pinduoduo ranked fourth to sixth respectively [2]

自去年3月官宣开放加盟以来，火锅龙头海底捞低调推进加盟业务。截至2024年底，海底捞完成13家加 盟门店的落地，其中包含10家自营转加盟店与3家新开加盟店。从数据看，海底捞加盟战略的实施进度 并不算快。 近日，证券时报记者专访了海底捞董事会副主席周兆呈，解读海底捞加盟业务背后的逻辑及对行业趋势 的判断。 周兆呈透露，自开放加盟以来，海底捞已收到超2万份申请。公司对加盟商的筛选标准极为严格，财力 并非唯一门槛。海底捞对加盟采用"强托管"模式，由总部派驻管理服务团队全程主导运营，确保加盟店 在品控、供应链等关键环节与直营店标准一致。他表示，借鉴国际餐饮连锁行业的成熟经验，海底捞已 明确将加盟作为长期发展方向，未来还将择机把加盟模式延伸至第二品牌，持续探索规模化扩张路径。 70%申请来自三线城市 自2024年以来，我国餐饮行业市场竞争愈发激烈。在此背景下，许多头部餐企纷纷布局加盟模式，行业 连锁化率持续提升。 火锅龙头海底捞也加入了这一趋势。2024年3月，海底捞正式启动加盟业务，至2024年底完成13家加盟 门店的落地，根据财报，2024年加盟业务贡献的收入为1670.6万元。 "海底捞引入加盟模式的决策并非偶然 ...

Company Overview - The company is currently focusing on optimizing customer and employee experiences, which may lead to short-term profit pressure, but it is expected that the peak summer season and operational improvements will drive recovery [1] - As of July, the table turnover rate has turned positive year-on-year, suggesting a need to continue monitoring the trend [1] Comments - The focus on enhancing customer and employee experiences has resulted in short-term profit margin pressure due to observed declines in internal operational management quality [1] - The company is implementing the "Different Haidilao" concept by creating diverse store environments, launching differentiated products, and restoring the supply of certain items, which may increase material costs [1] - Increased brand marketing investments, including celebrity endorsements and IP collaborations, aim to attract consumers [1] - Employee welfare investments have been increased since Q2 to enhance employee satisfaction and service quality, which may negatively impact short-term profit margins due to rising employee costs [1] Performance Insights - In the first half of 2025, the brand's table turnover rate is estimated to have declined by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year due to last year's high base, consumer environment pressures, and operational management quality issues [2] - However, the table turnover rate has shown positive growth since July, driven by the summer peak season and various adjustments [2] - The company has a strong organizational iteration capability and has historically managed to reverse difficult situations, indicating a positive long-term outlook [2] New Brand and Franchise Developments - The company is focusing on the "Pomegranate Plan" and franchise progress, with expectations of approximately 70 new "Yanqing" barbecue stores by the end of June and around 100 by year-end [2] - The company plans to enhance service quality at existing stores while moderating the pace of new openings [2] - The franchise business is steadily advancing, with an estimated 25 direct stores transitioning to franchises in the first half of 2025 and approximately 41 franchise stores by the end of June [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the short-term profit pressure from optimizing customer and employee experiences, the net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 17% and 12% to 4.15 billion and 4.81 billion respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to 17x and 15x P/E for 2025 and 2026 [2] - The target price has been lowered by 18% to 16 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 15% based on 20x and 17x P/E for 2025 and 2026 [2]

金十数据7月21日讯，摩根士丹利发报告指，由于业绩转弱，下调海底捞(06862.HK)2025-2027年收入预 测6-7%。因毛利率压力及经营去杠杆，将2025年净利预测下调14%，并将2026年净利预测下降12%。因 此下调目标价12.5%，由20港元降至17.5港元。维持"增持"评级。由于海底捞需求疲软，预计其2025年 上半年收入将年减3.5%至207亿元人民币。同时预期利润率将面临压力，净利润将下降约5%至19亿元人 民币。大摩预计，由于基数较低、自助餐业务的开展以及第四季外卖竞争可能减弱，集团收入年增速将 在下半年恢复。 摩根士丹利：降海底捞目标价12.5% 料其收入年增速将在下半年恢复 ...

Summary of Haidilao International Holding Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haidilao International Holding Ltd (6862.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer (China/Hong Kong) - **Market Cap**: Rmb68,977 million - **Current Stock Price**: HK$13.92 - **Price Target**: HK$17.50 Key Financial Metrics - **1H25 Revenue**: Expected to decline by 3.5% year-over-year (yoy) to Rmb20.7 billion - **1H25 Net Profit**: Expected to decline by approximately 5% yoy to Rmb1.9 billion - **2025 Revenue Forecast**: Cut by 6-7% to Rmb43.1 billion - **2025 Net Profit Forecast**: Cut by 14% to Rmb4.6 billion - **Gross Margin**: Expected to decline to 60.4-60.6% for 2025-2027, down by 2 percentage points from previous estimates Core Insights - **Traffic-Driven Pressure**: The decline in revenue is primarily due to weak traffic and table turnover, exacerbated by competition from food delivery platforms [3][9] - **Self-Help Initiatives**: The company is investing in service enhancements and product offerings to attract customers, which is leading to increased overhead costs and margin pressure in the short term [4][21] - **Positive Outlook for 2H25**: Anticipated recovery in table turnover and revenue growth due to a lower base and self-help initiatives, with expectations of less competition from delivery platforms in the fourth quarter [5][12][31] Financial Performance - **1H25 Financials**: - Revenue: Rmb20.7 billion, down 3.5% yoy - Net Profit: Rmb1.9 billion, down 5% yoy - Gross Profit Margin: 60.0%, down from 61.0% in 1H24 [15] - **Cost Structure**: Increased staff costs and overheads are impacting gross profit margins, with staff costs expected to remain high in 2025 [22][25] Market Dynamics - **Competitive Landscape**: The company faces intense competition from delivery platforms, which is affecting dine-in demand, particularly in the mid-price segment [12][31] - **Long-Term Growth Prospects**: Despite short-term challenges, the company is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery and its expansion strategy into different restaurant formats [32][33] Valuation and Investment Thesis - **Valuation**: The stock is currently trading at a P/E of 15x based on revised 2025 EPS estimates, which is considered attractive given the company's resilient cash flow and management capabilities [14][26] - **Investment Rating**: Overweight, with a target price of HK$17.50, reflecting a potential upside of 26% from the current price [7][26] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: Prolonged weak consumption and potential store closures could negatively impact performance, with EPS potentially 20% lower than base case forecasts in a bear scenario [37][43] - **Upside Potential**: Faster recovery in dine-in activities and new store openings could lead to better-than-expected demand recovery [30][43] Conclusion Haidilao International Holding Ltd is navigating a challenging macro environment with a focus on enhancing service and product offerings. While short-term pressures are evident, the company is positioned for a potential recovery in the latter half of 2025, supported by its unique business model and management strategies.