Core Insights - The "Top 100 Pre-made Dishes Companies in China" list was released at the third China International (Foshan) Pre-made Dishes Industry Conference, highlighting the dominance of Guangdong in the pre-made dishes sector [2][4][5]. Group 1: Rankings and Performance - The list features the top 100 companies in the pre-made dishes production sector, with Guangdong leading with 21 companies, followed by Shanghai with 11, and Shandong, Zhejiang, and Hunan each with 9 [6][11]. - The top-ranked company is Shuanghui Group from Henan, followed by Haidilao and Wens Foodstuff Group [8][10]. Group 2: Industry Composition - The majority of companies on the list are in food processing, accounting for 57 out of 100, while 22 are in the restaurant sector and 20 in agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry [15][16]. - Guangdong's representation includes 9 companies in agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry, 8 in food processing, and 4 in the restaurant sector [12][13]. Group 3: Evaluation Criteria - The rankings are based on data from major e-commerce platforms, company financial reports, consumer reputation, media evaluations, product innovation, and other metrics, using a big data evaluation model [21][23]. - The evaluation focuses on five key indicators: comprehensive strength, R&D capability, brand reputation, brand influence, and product competitiveness, with scores ranging from 0 to 100 [24][25]. Group 4: Regional Highlights - The top 20 Guangdong specialty ingredients list was also introduced, showcasing products from various cities, with Zhanjiang shrimp ranked first [31][36]. - The evaluation of specialty ingredients considers media exposure, export performance, cultural influence, and e-commerce market performance [33][35].

Core Viewpoint - Nomura has downgraded its profit forecasts for Haidilao from 2023 to 2027 by 7% to 10%, with a target price reduced to HKD 16.2 [1] Financial Performance - Nomura expects Haidilao's mid-term revenue to decline by 4.4% year-on-year to RMB 20.5 billion, primarily due to the impact on table turnover rates [1] - Despite improvements in average spending per order, restaurant operations are estimated to decrease by 6% year-on-year [1] - The growth in takeout and barbecue businesses may partially alleviate the decline [1] Profitability Metrics - The firm has lowered its profit margin forecasts, predicting a contraction in operating profit margin and adjusted net profit margin by 0.3% and 0.4% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Food cost ratio is expected to increase by 2.4% compared to the second half of last year [1] - Operating expense ratio is projected to rise by 0.4% year-on-year due to efforts to provide better value products [1] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to decline by 8% year-on-year to RMB 1.8 billion [1] Long-term Outlook - The downgrade in net profit forecasts for the company from 2023 to 2027 reflects higher-than-expected operating costs [1] - The target price has been revised from HKD 20.2 to HKD 16.2, while maintaining a buy rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of "Nai Pi Zi" yogurt is reshaping the beverage market, achieving daily sales of 400,000 cups and becoming a phenomenon in the restaurant industry [4][6][12]. Market Dynamics - "Nai Pi Zi" yogurt features a thick layer of milk skin on top of creamy yogurt, appealing to consumers with its unique texture and flavor [6][13]. - Major brands across various sectors, including traditional restaurants and baked goods, are launching their versions of "Nai Pi Zi" yogurt, indicating a trend towards product innovation in the food industry [8][15][16]. - The product's success is attributed to its health benefits, transparency in production, and the growing consumer demand for local and low-additive products [11][12]. Consumer Engagement - Social media plays a significant role in promoting "Nai Pi Zi" yogurt, with experiential videos gaining substantial traction and driving its popularity nationwide [12]. - The product's unique taste and cultural significance resonate well with consumers, leading to a surge in interest and sales [12][22]. Competitive Landscape - Various brands, including Sea Hot Pot and Mei Suan Nai, are quickly entering the "Nai Pi Zi" yogurt market, leveraging their existing customer bases to promote the new product [20][21][27]. - The competitive environment is characterized by a low operational cost, attracting many entrepreneurs to the market [13][16]. Regional Opportunities - The Chengdu market presents a favorable environment for "Nai Pi Zi" yogurt due to its young population and openness to innovative dairy products [27][30]. - Local restaurants can adopt successful strategies from other regions, such as using "Nai Pi Zi" yogurt as a traffic-driving product or establishing specialty stores [30]. Long-term Viability - Despite the current growth, industry experts express caution regarding the long-term sustainability of "Nai Pi Zi" yogurt, suggesting it may merely be an improved version of traditional yogurt [31][32]. - Concerns about pricing, health implications, and the lack of standardized production processes could hinder the product's market expansion [32][35]. - The future of the yogurt market may lean towards functional and health-oriented products, necessitating a balance between innovation, quality, and consumer expectations [36].

Core Insights - Didi has formed a strategic partnership with Haidilao, marking its first collaboration with a hotpot restaurant brand, aiming to create a combined "transportation + dining" experience [1] - The partnership allows for mutual integration of membership systems, offering customized benefits to users [1] Group 1: Membership System - Didi's mileage membership system allows users to accumulate mileage points through rides, unlocking different levels of benefits from V1 to V8 [1] - Users can match their Didi membership level with corresponding Haidilao membership, gaining access to various rewards such as dining coupons and exclusive gifts [1] Group 2: Benefits and Services - The V7 and V8 membership cards for Haidilao users include popular travel benefits, such as a fast response service for quicker ride requests during peak times [2] - Members can utilize "no cancellation fee" benefits, where the platform covers cancellation costs if plans change unexpectedly [2] - Additional benefits include "rapid compensation" for billing issues, "no car compensation" for delays in vehicle response, and monthly exclusive ride vouchers [2]

Group 1 - Meituan's instant retail orders surpassed 150 million, with the "Shen Qiang Shou" category exceeding 50 million orders, indicating a significant demand for various food items beyond just beverages [1] - On a single day, KFC achieved remarkable sales, selling over 1 million servings in half a day, while other brands like McDonald's and Pizza Hut also saw substantial order volumes [2] - Among the top 100 merchants, 55 experienced a doubling in order volume compared to the same period last month, and 42 saw their transaction amounts double, showcasing a strong growth trend in the food delivery sector [1][2] Group 2 - Fried chicken and burger fast food categories dominate the top 20 food categories, attributed to their high standardization and quick delivery capabilities, making them popular choices among consumers [2] - International brands like KFC and McDonald's serve as trend indicators for domestic food businesses, with their promotional items seeing high demand [2][3] - Local dishes and home-style snacks are also performing well, with brands like "Mici Village" and "Nanjing Dapaidang" gaining traction due to their unique flavors [3]

Group 1 - The overall restaurant industry prosperity index in June 2025 slightly decreased to 104.1, down 0.1% from May's 104.2 [5][3] - The decline in the index was influenced by various factors, including seasonal changes and consumer behavior adjustments [8][4] - The index for third-tier and below cities saw the largest decline at 5.4%, followed by second-tier cities at 4.6%, while first-tier cities experienced a slight increase of 1.2% [12] Group 2 - The "Red Restaurant Index Top 100" for June 2025 saw 36 brands rise in rankings, 33 fall, and 30 remain unchanged, with one new entry [18] - The top three brands in the index were Haidilao, KFC (China), and Luckin Coffee, followed closely by McDonald's (China) and others [20][18] Group 3 - In June 2025, the snack fast food category showed significant growth, with its prosperity index rising to 103.7, an increase of 5.4% [16] - Conversely, the beverage category's index fell to 116.5, down 2.2%, while the index for hot pot and barbecue categories were 93.5 and 81.9, respectively, both showing declines [16] Group 4 - The restaurant industry saw active financing events in June 2025, with a total of 10 financing occurrences, marking a significant increase from the previous month [59] - Notable IPO movements included the submission of a prospectus by Banu International Holdings for a main board listing and the listing of Haitian Flavoring and Food Company on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [62][58] Group 5 - The restaurant industry is witnessing a trend of local brand expansion and international market penetration, with brands innovating through unique store formats and digital models [55] - Significant industry events included the opening of Haidilao's first fresh-cut beef theme store in Guangzhou and Luckin Coffee's first stores in the U.S. [61][62]

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the food delivery market is intensifying, with companies like Meituan, Taobao, and JD.com launching aggressive promotional campaigns, while traditional dining establishments are exploring new revenue streams by attracting customers from events like concerts [1][10]. Group 1: Concerts as a Marketing Strategy - Restaurants like Haidilao and Banu are actively engaging concert-goers by providing free shuttle services to their establishments, capitalizing on the late-night dining demand generated by events [2][4]. - The concert of singer Lin Junjie attracted over 500,000 tickets sold, creating a significant opportunity for restaurants to capture the audience's attention post-event [2][10]. - The strategy of attracting customers from concerts is not new for these restaurants, as they have previously implemented similar tactics in various cities, enhancing their visibility and customer engagement [4][7]. Group 2: Target Audience and Consumer Behavior - The target demographic for these marketing efforts primarily consists of young adults aged 18 to 35, who are known for their strong purchasing power and social needs, aligning well with the typical hotpot consumer profile [8][10]. - Market research indicates that young consumers, particularly those aged 21 to 30, are the main drivers of hotpot consumption, with peak dining hours aligning with concert end times [8][9]. - The emotional state of concert-goers, who are often excited and hungry after the event, increases the likelihood of them choosing to dine out, thus enhancing conversion rates for restaurants [8][9]. Group 3: Business Impact and Brand Exposure - By providing free transportation and creating a lively atmosphere, restaurants not only attract customers but also enhance their brand visibility at a relatively low cost [9][10]. - The late-night dining strategy has proven effective in increasing foot traffic during typically low-traffic hours, with reports of restaurants being fully booked after concerts [9][10]. - This approach allows restaurants to leverage the concert's popularity, resulting in increased sales and positive customer experiences, thereby building brand loyalty [9][11]. Group 4: Challenges in the Food Industry - The rise of food delivery platforms has created significant challenges for traditional dining establishments, including pressure on pricing and profit margins due to competitive discounts and high commission fees [10][11]. - The shift in consumer behavior towards seeking unique dining experiences and social interactions has prompted restaurants to innovate and adapt their strategies to remain competitive [10][11]. - The success of concert-based marketing strategies suggests a potential pathway for restaurants to navigate the challenges posed by delivery platforms and changing consumer preferences [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Haidilao International Holding with a 12-month price target of HK$15.30, implying an upside potential of 8.4% from the current price of HK$14.12 [1][2][26]. Core Insights - The earnings forecasts for Haidilao have been revised down by 13%-16% for 2025-27, primarily due to lower-than-expected performance in 1H25, slower store expansion, and the company's strategy to offer better value to customers [2][23][27]. - The company is expected to experience a revenue decline of 4% year-on-year in 1H25, driven by weaker table turn performance and a decrease in party size, although a slight improvement in average selling price (ASP) may provide some offset [20][21]. - Despite the challenges in 1H25, the second half is anticipated to show a recovery in same-store sales growth (SSSG) due to an easier comparison base, which could lead to slight positive growth in average sales per store [2][22]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecasts - The report projects a revenue of Rmb20.6 billion for 1H25, reflecting a 4% decline year-on-year, with restaurant revenue expected to drop by 6% [20][21]. - For 2025, total revenue is estimated at Rmb43.09 billion, down from the previous estimate of Rmb44.62 billion, marking a 3.4% reduction [25]. Margin Analysis - The gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to contract to 60.7% in 1H25, down from 61.0% in 1H24, due to increased food cost ratios and operating deleverage [1][21]. - Operating profit margin (OPM) is projected to decrease by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 11.8% [21]. Store Expansion and Performance - The company is expected to close 8 net stores in 1H25, indicating a cautious approach to expansion amid fluid consumption trends [20]. - The total store count for Haidilao is projected to decrease by 30 stores in 2025, with a total of 1,415 stores expected [25]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation of 16X for the 2025 estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, with a projected dividend yield of 6% [2][13]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 2025 is forecasted at Rmb8,063.4 million, reflecting a decline from previous estimates [25]. Key Focus Areas for Investors - Investors are advised to monitor the trends in table turn performance, store expansion plans, margin outlook, and the impact of delivery subsidies on overall performance [22][23].

Group 1: Consumer Market Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24,545.8 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Sales of basic living goods and certain upgraded consumer goods showed strong growth, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, communication equipment, and furniture increasing by 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively [1] - The rapid growth of upgraded consumer goods reflects consumers' pursuit of quality of life and increased purchasing power, supported by the "old-for-new" policy [1] Group 2: Local Life Services - Douyin announced a significant platform subsidy to support chain brand hotels through live streaming and promotional activities, with discounts starting at 60% for hotel bookings [2] - This subsidy strategy is expected to enhance Douyin's market share in the local life service sector, particularly in hotel reservations, by offering competitive prices and services [2] Group 3: Strategic Collaborations - JD Technology signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Whale Robot Technology to promote the "AI + education robot" industry through product and technology collaboration [3] - The partnership aims to leverage both companies' strengths to enhance product competitiveness and accelerate the development of the education robot market [3] - Didi announced a strategic cooperation with Haidilao, enabling mutual membership benefits and exploring new value-added services in the "transportation + dining" scenario [4] - The membership integration is expected to enhance market competitiveness and user engagement for both Didi and Haidilao [4]

Group 1 - The summer season has led to increased consumer demand for refreshing and seasonal food ingredients, prompting innovation across various categories in the restaurant market [1] - According to Hongcan Research Institute, in June, 20 Western fast food brands launched a total of 66 new products, while 16 hot pot brands introduced 68 new items [1] - The hot pot new products are categorized into various types, with the most new items in the hot pot side dishes category, totaling 37, accounting for 54.4% of the total new products [1] Group 2 - Haidilao has launched a "night snack menu" targeting the peak period from June to August, featuring various summer new products including hot pot bases, dipping items, snacks, drinks, and barbecues [2] - The new menu includes unique items like "Waterfall Squid Slices" and a vegetable mix called "Melon Party," along with upgraded classic night snack combinations [2] - Domino's has introduced six new durian-themed products and is running a limited-time promotion on summer beverages in 16 cities [3] Group 3 - The Ministry of Commerce and the National Development and Reform Commission have released guidelines encouraging innovation in the restaurant industry, focusing on enhancing consumer experiences and diversifying offerings [3] - Haidilao has opened nearly 30 night snack theme stores in major cities, transforming hot pot restaurants into "Live houses" with DJ performances and cocktail shows [3]