截至发稿， 招商证券(06099.HK)涨7.68%、 中信证券(06030.HK)涨 6.35%、 国联民生(01456.HK)涨5.22 %、 中国银河(06881.HK)涨4.40 %、 中金公司(03908.HK)涨 3.92%。消息方面，中国人民银行行长潘功 胜5月7日在国新办发布会上宣布，降准0.5个百分点，并降低政策 利率0.1个百分点。 ...

致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國銀河證券股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年5月6日 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年4月30日 狀態: 新提交 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 601881 | 說明 | | 於上海證券交易所上市 | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 7,243,417,623 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 7,243,417,623 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 7,243,417,623 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 7,243,417,623 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，据交通运输部，五一假期前三日，全社会跨区域人员流 动总量91524万人次/同比+5.8%。结合携程数据，相较清明假期，五一黄金周游客出行距离呈现显著延 伸：五一期间跨市住宿订单占比已突破80%，连住两日及以上的深度游用户比例预期将达到20%。据国 家移民管理局预测，今年"五一"假期全国口岸日均出入境人员将达215万人次，较去年同期增长27%。 其中，受益于入境免签及境外旅客购物离境退税"即买即退"举措，携程数据显示今年五一入境游订单量 同比去年增长173%。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 五一假期前三日出游人次增长超预期，假期天数增加推动出行半径扩大 山东省：假期前三日，全省重点监测的200家旅游景区累计接待游客1648万人次/同比+7.5%，景区营业 收入合计9亿元/同比+8.1%，人均消费54.6元/同比+0.6%。上海迪士尼乐园：假期前三日，园区客流量 合计30万人次/同比+12.5%。 出入境人次维持高增长，免签政策推动入境游订单大增 据国家移民管理局预测，今年"五一"假期全国口岸日均出入境人员将达215万人次，较去年同期增长 27%。其中，受益于入境免签及境 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance and forecasts are in line with expectations, accelerating the implementation of a three-year strategy, which is expected to seize opportunities for building a first-class investment bank and achieve better-than-expected growth [1]. Investment Highlights - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 19.60 yuan, corresponding to a 1.8x PB for 2025. In Q1 2025, revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are projected at 7.56 billion and 3.02 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 4.8% and 84.9%, consistent with performance forecasts [2]. - The weighted average ROE increased by 1.14 percentage points to 2.44%. The acceleration of supply-side reforms in the industry and the company's ongoing three-year strategy implementation are expected to lead to better-than-expected growth [2]. - The recovery in investment and the high growth of wealth management business are driving profit growth. The brokerage, investment banking, asset management, and investment businesses achieved year-on-year growth of 53%, 59%, 19%, and 94%, respectively. Investment income contributed 68% of the revenue increase, while brokerage business contributed 30% [2]. - The high growth in investment business is primarily due to improved investment returns from a low base, with an annualized investment return rate of 3.3%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year. The scale of financial assets decreased by 9% year-on-year to 386.3 billion yuan [2]. Strategic Progress - The company is accelerating the implementation of its three-year strategy, aiming to seize opportunities for building a first-class investment bank. The new "National Nine Articles" focuses on returning to the essence of the industry and strengthening leading institutions through mergers, reorganizations, and organizational innovations [3]. - The company has made significant progress in its three-year strategy, enhancing its "five-in-one" business model and continuously improving its professional capabilities. The institutional business has launched the "Galaxy Tiangong 2.0" platform to deepen and expand its service system [3]. - The investment banking business is undergoing professional reforms, showing gradual results, while the international business has officially launched the "Galaxy Overseas" brand, aiming to become a modern investment bank based in Asia [3]. - The new round of capital market reforms has accelerated since the beginning of the year, providing the company with opportunities to expedite the construction of a first-class investment bank and achieve better-than-expected growth [3].

上天天基金APP搜索【777】领 98 元券包 ，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 中信证券：A股将继续呈现风偏回暖、主题轮动特征 展望5月，中信证券预计风险偏好还有回升空间，A股将继续呈现风偏回暖、主题轮动的特征，以低机构持仓 的主题型交易机会为主。但从经济层面来看，真实的影响已经悄然发生，中信证券预计中美经济在二季度尾声 可能会面临新的变数。 配置上，除了短期的热点主题轮动，中信证券依然建议聚焦三个不变的大趋势：一是中国自主科技能力的提升 趋势不会动摇；二是欧洲重建自主防务，提升能源、基建和资源储备的趋势不会动摇；三是中国势必要走 通"双循环"，加速完善社会保障并激发内需潜力是政策的必选项。 广发证券：景气投资回归 短期A股考虑三重因素：一是一些负面的一季报靴子落地；二是TMT反应度模型已经处于下限位置；三是国内 外大厂在大模型、算力芯片、端侧、AI应用的进展不断，5月—6月继续看好科技股的机会。 中期角度来说，回到三类资产对应的三个模型，在出现地产周期大反弹或科技应用大爆发之前，中长期对中性 股息组合保持关注。另外，考虑到国内科技大厂资本开支正在加大、产业链订单开始释放，景气成长组合以及 所代表 ...

Core Insights - The performance of listed securities firms in Q1 2025 shows significant growth, with over 70% of firms reporting increases in both revenue and net profit, indicating a potential new upward cycle for the securities industry [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for 42 listed securities firms reached 125.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 52.18 billion yuan, up 83.48% [3] - CITIC Securities led the revenue rankings with 17.76 billion yuan, followed by the merged Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities at 11.77 billion yuan, and Huatai Securities at 8.23 billion yuan [3] - Over 70% of firms reported revenue growth, with Guolian Minsheng Securities showing the highest increase at 800.98% [3][4] Group 2: Profitability - More than 80% of securities firms experienced year-on-year net profit growth, with Northeast Securities showing the most significant increase at 859.84% [4] - Guotai Junan Securities achieved a net profit of 12.24 billion yuan, surpassing CITIC Securities, making it the only firm to exceed 10 billion yuan in net profit for the quarter [3][4] Group 3: Revenue Structure - Proprietary trading and brokerage services accounted for nearly 65% of total revenue, with net income from proprietary trading and brokerage services increasing by 51.02% and 48.70%, respectively [5] - 17 firms reported brokerage service net income growth exceeding 50%, with Guolian Minsheng Securities leading at 333.69% [5] Group 4: Market Conditions - The A-share market saw a significant increase in trading volume and new account openings, with 7.47 million new accounts opened in Q1 2025, a 31.7% increase from the previous year [6] - The average daily trading volume reached 1.7 trillion yuan, a 70% year-on-year increase, indicating a robust market environment [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts expect the securities industry to maintain a high level of prosperity in 2025, driven by high trading volumes and a recovering capital market [7] - The industry is anticipated to enter a new upward cycle, supported by ongoing policy initiatives and improving market sentiment [7]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market outlook for May is optimistic, with expectations for A-shares to "catch up" post-holiday, particularly in light of the positive trends in Hong Kong stocks and the renminbi exchange rate [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - On May 2, Hong Kong stocks experienced a significant rise, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.74% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 3.08% [2]. - The offshore renminbi strengthened, reaching a high of 7.24 against the US dollar, the highest level since April 4 [2]. - Analysts suggest that the trade tensions are showing signs of marginal easing, contributing to a positive market sentiment [2][3]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Signals - The Central Political Bureau's recent meeting conveyed positive signals aimed at stabilizing the capital market, emphasizing the need for a "stable and active capital market" [3]. - The easing of aggressive tariff policies by the US is expected to reduce market volatility and improve liquidity expectations [3]. Group 3: Focus on Technology - Analysts are optimistic about domestic technology-related assets, highlighting that the current monetary policy environment favors small-cap growth stocks [4]. - The Chinese government has provided substantial policy support for sectors like AI, robotics, and biomedicine, enhancing the competitive potential of domestic companies [4][5]. Group 4: Dividend Stocks as Safe Haven - Dividend assets are recognized for their stabilizing role in volatile market conditions, providing steady cash flow and additional returns [6][7]. - Research indicates that companies are improving their cash flow and dividend capabilities, with the non-financial free cash flow to equity ratio reaching historical highs [6][7]. - The dividend yield of the CSI 300 index is projected to be 3.2%, significantly higher than the ten-year government bond yield, indicating strong valuation attractiveness [7].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the securities industry, suggesting that the sector is poised for recovery and growth due to market conditions and regulatory support [3]. Core Insights - The securities industry is experiencing active trading with increased market volatility, as evidenced by a significant rise in average daily trading volume and a high margin financing balance [3][14]. - The report highlights the trend of declining IPO numbers and sizes, while the scale of additional offerings has increased significantly [22]. - The asset management sector is undergoing a transformation, with a shift towards active management and a decline in channel-based asset management [26]. - The integration of AI technology is expected to enhance operational efficiency and create new business opportunities within the securities industry [55][63]. - The report recommends strategic investments in leading securities firms that are likely to benefit from market rebounds and improved liquidity [3][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Securities Industry Review for 2025 - Active trading persists with heightened market volatility, reflected in a 38% increase in average daily trading volume to 16,373 billion yuan compared to 11,853 billion yuan in 2024 [14]. - Margin financing balance has risen by 19% year-on-year to 18,026 billion yuan [14]. - The number of IPOs has decreased, with 37 companies raising 24.7 billion yuan, a 6% decline from the previous year [22]. - Asset management regulations have led to a decline in channel-based asset management, while collective asset management has seen an increase [26]. 2. Mergers and Acquisitions Driving Supply-Side Reform - Regulatory bodies are encouraging mergers and acquisitions among securities firms to create "aircraft carrier-level" institutions, enhancing competitiveness and market stability [36]. - The report notes that the industry is witnessing an increase in merger activities, particularly among larger and smaller firms, to achieve scale and operational synergies [39]. 3. AI Empowering Securities Firms - The integration of AI is expected to reduce costs and enhance efficiency across existing business lines, while also fostering the development of new financial products and services [55][63]. - The report outlines various applications of AI in enhancing customer service, risk management, and investment advisory services [63][64]. - Financial technology investments are projected to grow significantly, with the securities sector expected to see a compound annual growth rate of 20% in technology spending by 2026 [56].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a rapid growth in performance, with brokerage business increasing alongside market growth, and resilient self-investment returns [2][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from policies favoring strong firms and mergers and acquisitions, with investment banking and asset management likely to continue gaining momentum under new management and strategy [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 7.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.02 billion yuan, up 84.9% year-on-year. The weighted average return on equity (ROE) increased by 1.14 percentage points to 2.44% [6][12]. - Revenue from various business lines includes brokerage at 1.92 billion yuan (up 53.1%), investment banking at 150 million yuan (up 59.5%), asset management at 130 million yuan (up 19.3%), interest income at 910 million yuan (down 2.4%), and self-investment income at 3.16 billion yuan (up 94.2%) [12]. Brokerage and Financing - The average daily trading volume in the two markets was 1.52 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.3%, with the margin financing balance at 1.92 trillion yuan, up 24.8% year-on-year. The company's brokerage revenue increased by 53.1% to 1.92 billion yuan, with a financing balance up 3.8% to 105.4 billion yuan, resulting in a market share of 5.52%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points from the beginning of the year [12]. Investment and Underwriting - Despite market fluctuations, the company achieved impressive investment returns of 3.16 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 94.2%, with a calculated annualized investment return rate of 5.7%, up 2.76 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - The company’s bond underwriting scale reached 157.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 88.7%, with a market share increase of 1.84 percentage points [12]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 11.22 billion yuan and 12.74 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-book ratios of 1.53 and 1.40 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation and impact of the "swap convenience tool" introduced by the central bank, highlighting how various securities firms have engaged with this tool to enhance liquidity and support the capital market [1][13]. Group 1: Participation and Impact of Swap Convenience Tool - Several securities firms have successfully obtained qualifications to participate in the swap convenience business, with some reporting significant engagement in their annual reports [1][2]. - Firms like Shenwan Hongyuan and Caitong Securities have actively utilized the swap convenience to acquire stocks and ETFs, indicating a proactive approach to capital market support [3][4]. - Dongwu Securities and other firms have reported successful participation in the second batch of swap convenience operations, contributing to the A-share market [4][5]. Group 2: Financial Metrics and Performance - Some firms disclosed that their swap convenience-related repurchase agreements approached 5 billion yuan, showcasing the scale of their operations [2][7]. - Citic Securities reported being the first to complete a swap convenience transaction on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, emphasizing their role in maintaining market stability [5]. - By the end of 2024, Guosen Securities noted that the fair value of bonds obtained through swap convenience for repurchase agreements was 2.944 billion yuan, reflecting the financial implications of these operations [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Plans - Firms like Caitong Securities and Dongwu Securities expressed intentions to continue leveraging the swap convenience tool to enhance their investment strategies and contribute to market stability [12][4]. - Guosen Securities plans to refine its asset allocation strategy while balancing non-directional and directional investment approaches, indicating a strategic focus on stability and flexibility [12]. - Zhongtai Securities aims to improve its research and investment capabilities, highlighting the importance of the swap convenience tool in enhancing asset allocation effectiveness and return stability [11][12].