Company Overview - On August 26, the company held a semi-annual performance briefing where the chairman shared the "Wanshang Alliance" plan and interacted with investors [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 44.8% year-on-year, primarily due to adjustments in its flagship products, with expectations of slight declines in the high-end liquor division and old products [1] - The company aims to maintain a clearance strategy in the second half of the year, with overall inventory expected to remain low [1] Product and Market Strategy - The newly launched "Dazhen" product has significantly contributed to growth, with over 50 "Wanshang Alliance" meetings held and more than 2000 distributors signed since its launch on June 17 [2] - The company anticipates signing around 3000 distributors by the end of the year, which is expected to be a core growth driver for the second half [2] - The flat model of "Dazhen" is believed to have strong penetration potential, which could enhance the number of alliance merchants and ensure stable, sustainable profits [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company expects a narrowing of revenue decline in the second half of 2025, with absolute revenue potentially decreasing slightly [2] - The gross profit margin is projected to remain stable or slightly increase, while the management expense ratio is expected to rise due to reverse scale effects [2] - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been lowered by 8.3% to 1.1 billion HKD, while the 2026 forecast has been raised by 5.4% to 1.44 billion HKD [2] - The target price has been increased by 27% to 11.2 HKD, reflecting a 31x/24x P/E ratio for 2025/26 adjusted net profit, with a potential upside of 16.8% from the current price [2]

Industry Dynamics - From January to July, the beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry achieved revenue of 934.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [4] - In Jiangsu Province, the production of liquor from large-scale enterprises was 93,500 kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 17.0% [4] - The city of Renhuai has implemented a trial management method for core production area certification and coding for Chinese sauce-flavored liquor [4] Event Announcements - The 114th National Sugar and Wine Fair will be held from March 26 to 28, 2026, in Chengdu, aiming to broaden the range of exhibits and better connect the industry chain [5] Company Developments - Three new Moutai cultural experience centers opened in Urumqi and Zhengzhou, integrating local cultural elements into their design [7] - Wuliangye launched a new low-alcohol product, 29° Wuliangye, targeting younger consumers, with pre-sales available on multiple platforms [7] - Several liquor companies, including Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, are actively developing low-alcohol products as a strategy to attract younger consumers [7] Financial Performance - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 52.771 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.19% [8] - Shanxi Fenjiu achieved a revenue of 23.964 billion yuan, up 5.35% year-on-year [8] - Jinzhongzi Liquor reported a revenue of 0.484 billion yuan, a decline of 27.47% year-on-year [8] - Other companies, including Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinsiyuan, also reported declines in revenue for the first half of 2025 [8][9] Technological Advancements - Five liquor companies were included in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's 5G factory list, indicating advancements in smart manufacturing [10]

Core Viewpoint - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has seen a stock price increase of over 7%, currently trading at 10.22 HKD with a transaction volume of 214 million HKD, despite a significant decline in mid-year performance metrics [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, the company reported revenue of 2.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 570 million RMB, down 23.5% year-on-year [1] Market Outlook - Dongwu Securities indicates that the company's product matrix is clear, and the long-term brand and quality upgrade strategy is expected to gradually show organizational efficiency and channel potential [1] - It is anticipated that the decline in the second half of the year will narrow significantly, supported by the recovery in demand and the expansion of the Dazhen market [1] Industry Context - According to ShenGang Securities, the white liquor sector is currently facing limited fundamental catalysts, and the performance pressure from mid-year results has been released [1] - The second half of the year may benefit from a low base in the industry and the diminishing marginal effects of restaurant consumption policies, making the performance in Q3 and Q4 worth monitoring [1] - The overall market recovery suggests that undervalued cyclical sectors may gradually attract market attention, with recommendations to identify investment targets in the white liquor sector based on channel clearance, regional optimization, scenario engagement, and increased dividend rates [1]

Group 1 - The stock of Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has increased by over 7%, currently trading at 10.22 HKD with a transaction volume of 214 million HKD [1] - Zhenjiu Lidu reported a revenue of 2.5 billion CNY for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 39.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 570 million CNY, down 23.5% year-on-year [1] - Dongwu Securities noted that the company has a clear product matrix and long-term plans for brand and quality upgrades, with expectations for improved organizational efficiency and channel momentum [1] Group 2 - Shengan Securities highlighted that the white liquor sector has faced limited fundamental catalysts recently, and the performance in the second half of the year will depend on sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [1] - There is an expectation for improved performance in the second half of the year due to a low base from the previous year and diminishing marginal effects of restaurant consumption policies [1] - The white liquor sector is suggested to be explored from perspectives such as channel clearance, regional optimization, scenario engagement, and increased dividend rates [1]

Core Insights - The "Wanshang Alliance" model addresses four major channel pain points: price chaos, high pressure on distributors' funds, profit dilution, and high inventory levels, potentially becoming the company's third growth curve [1] - The Dazhen product will play a strategic role in the product matrix, targeting the 600 yuan price range, aiming to capture both consumption upgrade and downgrade demands, while avoiding direct competition with ultra-high-end products [2] - The company aims to create a natural demand for products through consumer cultivation and atmosphere building, transforming group buyers into hybrid distributors, thus rapidly expanding sales volume [3] Financial Projections - The company expects revenues of 5.666 billion yuan and 6.074 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 19.8% in 2025 and a growth of 7.2% in 2026 [3] - Non-IFRS adjusted net profits are projected to be 1.312 billion yuan and 1.443 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 21.7% in 2025 and an increase of 10.0% in 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Green Tea Group reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and profit growth driven by an increase in takeout business and store expansion [2][4]. Financial Performance - Green Tea's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.29 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 23.1% [2][6]. - The adjusted net profit was 251 million RMB, reflecting a 40.4% increase compared to the previous year [2][6]. - Takeout revenue amounted to 524 million RMB, a significant increase of 74.2% from 300 million RMB in the same period last year, contributing to 22.9% of total revenue [4][6]. Operational Challenges - Despite revenue growth, the company faced challenges such as declining same-store sales and slower-than-expected expansion [4][8]. - Same-store average daily sales decreased from 23,100 RMB in June 2024 to 20,000 RMB in June 2025, with the largest decline in North China at 15.9% [8][9]. - The overall average consumer spending dropped from 61.8 RMB in 2023 to 55.5 RMB in 2025 [9]. Expansion Strategy - Green Tea plans to continue its expansion strategy, aiming to open 150, 200, and 213 new restaurants in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, targeting a total of over 1,000 stores by 2027 [10][11]. - The company has focused on smaller restaurant formats, which have shown higher turnover rates and lower operating costs, with the number of small restaurants increasing from 100 in 2022 to 284 in 2024 [7][10]. Store Count and Market Presence - As of June 30, 2025, Green Tea operated 502 stores nationwide, with over half located in first-tier and new first-tier cities [6][7]. - The company only added 37 new stores in the first half of 2025, achieving only 24.7% of its annual target, indicating a slower expansion pace than anticipated [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is facing significant growth challenges, prompting major players to explore the high-end craft beer market as a potential new growth avenue [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - Baijiu companies are experiencing declining sales and increasing inventory pressures, with a reported 1.8% decrease in national baijiu production in 2024 [1][4]. - The core consumer demographic for baijiu is becoming more conservative, with younger consumers showing a preference for beer and low-alcohol beverages [1][5]. - For example, the sales volume of the core product of Zhenjiu has been consistently declining from 14,761 tons in 2021 to 12,284 tons in 2024 [3]. Group 2: Shift to Craft Beer - Major baijiu brands, including Zhenjiu, Moutai, and Luzhou Laojiao, are entering the craft beer market, targeting the mid-to-high-end segment [2][5]. - Zhenjiu's new craft beer, "Niu Shi," is priced at 88 yuan per 375ml bottle, reflecting a strategy to leverage brand premium and distribution advantages [2][5]. - The shift to craft beer is seen as a way to attract younger consumers and diversify revenue streams amid declining baijiu sales [5][14]. Group 3: Operational Differences - The operational models for baijiu and beer are fundamentally different, with beer relying on high volume and rapid turnover, while baijiu focuses on high margins and inventory management [6][9]. - The distribution channels for baijiu are established on high-profit margins, whereas beer distribution is competitive and requires extensive market penetration [9][12]. - Zhenjiu's craft beer is produced through a contract manufacturing arrangement, raising concerns about quality control and brand integrity [10]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The introduction of craft beer may serve more as a strategic tool for Zhenjiu to manage inventory and stabilize prices rather than a genuine attempt to compete in the beer market [11][14]. - The pricing strategy for "Niu Shi" aligns with traditional baijiu sales tactics, suggesting that the craft beer may function as a "social currency" to facilitate baijiu sales [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhenjiu Lidu, reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, achieving revenue of 2.497 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 613 million yuan, which aligns with market expectations and reflects a stable market position despite industry challenges [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Zhenjiu Lidu's gross profit margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 59%, maintaining growth for three consecutive years [4]. - The adjusted net profit margin remained stable at 24.6%, indicating sustained operational quality [4]. - The company’s revenue from its Li Du brand reached 611 million yuan, a 45.8% increase year-on-year, with sales volume growing by 27.79% to 1,752 tons [7]. Market Strategy - Zhenjiu Lidu implemented a price stabilization strategy, with a ton price of 273,700 yuan, which is a 6.6% decrease year-on-year, demonstrating effective price control [7]. - The company is focusing on product innovation, launching the "Da Zhen·Zhenjiu" product, which offers high quality at a competitive price of 600 yuan, targeting products typically priced at 3,000 yuan [9][10]. Innovation and Growth Initiatives - The company introduced the "Wanshang Alliance" model to recruit over 10,000 alliance merchants, aiming to create a nationwide distribution network [10]. - Zhenjiu Lidu's new high-end craft beer "Niu Shi," priced at 88 yuan per bottle, aims to differentiate itself in the market [12]. - The company has engaged in innovative marketing strategies, including appointing Yao Anna as the "Cultural Heritage Ambassador" for Chinese liquor, enhancing brand visibility [12]. Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - Zhenjiu Lidu's stock price surged over 50% from 6.46 HKD to 10.06 HKD between August 1 and August 25, 2025, with a market capitalization increase of over 10 billion HKD [15][16]. - Multiple brokerage firms have issued "buy" or "increase" ratings for Zhenjiu Lidu, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth potential [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to fully deplete channel inventory this year, with a potential recovery in growth for old products next year, driven by the revenue contribution from the "Da Zhen" product line [1] Group 1: Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been lowered by 8.3% to HKD 1.1 billion, while the forecast for 2026 has been raised by 5.4% to HKD 1.44 billion [1] - The target price has been increased by 27% to HKD 11.2, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 31x for 2025 and 24x for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 16.8% from the current price [1] Group 2: Performance Insights - In the first half of 2025, the revenue for Zhenjiu decreased by 44.8% year-on-year, primarily due to adjustments in Zhen 30 and Zhen 15, while Li Du's revenue fell by 9.4%, the smallest decline among four brands [2] - The company is expected to maintain a clearing strategy in the second half of 2025, with overall inventory likely to remain low [2] Group 3: Product Development - The "Da Zhen" product line has significantly contributed to revenue growth, with over 50 "Wan Shang Alliance" meetings held and more than 2000 distributors signed since its launch on June 17 [3] - The company anticipates signing around 3000 merchants this year, which will be a core growth driver for the second half of the year [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company expects a narrowing of the revenue decline in the second half of 2025, with stable gross margins and slight increases in management expenses due to reverse scale effects [4] - For next year, the revenue from old products is expected to stabilize and slightly increase, with "Da Zhen" continuing to contribute significantly [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the company expects to fully deplete channel inventory this year, with a potential recovery in sales for old products next year, and significant revenue contribution from the "Da Zhen" recruitment initiative [1][2] - The company has adjusted its 2025 net profit forecast down by 8.3% to HKD 1.1 billion, while raising the 2026 forecast by 5.4% to HKD 1.44 billion, leading to a target price increase of 27% to HKD 11.2 [1] - The current price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 27x for 2025 and 21x for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 16.8% [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 44.8%, primarily due to adjustments in its premium products, but channel inventory has significantly decreased to a reasonable level [3] - The company is expected to maintain a clearing strategy in the second half of 2025, with a further narrowing of revenue decline anticipated [3] - The "Da Zhen" product, launched on June 17, has already signed over 2,000 distributors and is projected to sign around 3,000 by the end of the year, becoming a key growth driver [4] Group 3 - The company anticipates a reduction in the revenue decline in the second half of 2025, with stable gross margins and slight increases in management expenses due to reverse scale effects [5] - Looking ahead to next year, the company expects stable growth for old products and continued significant contributions from "Da Zhen," with Li Du projected to achieve steady growth [5]