Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Baijiu Industry - The baijiu sector has reached a bottom in fundamentals, with valuations at low levels and market expectations recovering. Demand-side pressures are dissipating, and seasonal catalysts are expected to boost interest in brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Zhenjiu Shede for short-term opportunities, while Moutai, Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu are recommended for long-term investment [1][2][4] Beverage and Snack Industry - The beverage sector is favorable for leading companies such as Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, while the snack sector shows good alignment between valuation and growth potential. Key products to watch for Q4 catalysts include Weijia and Yanjinpuzi, with Yili identified as a bottom-value recovery company [1][5] Whisky Industry - In 2024, whisky imports are expected to decline by approximately 40%, with high-aged whisky's share also decreasing. Instant consumption channels now account for over 30% of sales, with dining and home consumption being the primary scenarios [3][13] Beer Industry - Both Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer have seen their valuations drop to attractive levels, with Yanjing at 23-24 times earnings and Zhujiang at 21 times, both reflecting 2025 valuation levels. These companies are noted for their growth potential driven by flagship products [19] Company-Specific Insights Zhenjiu Lid - Zhenjiu Lid has launched an equity payment plan to bind the interests of alliance merchants, with the first quarter's alliance contributing approximately 320 million yuan in revenue. The acupuncture business is projected to account for 5% of the company's total revenue in 2024 [6][8][7] Baijun Co., Ltd. - Baijun's major shareholder transferred 6% of shares to Homa's Liu Jianbo, which is expected to empower Baijun in business expansion and overseas market development. The shareholding structure remains stable, providing opportunities for deeper collaboration [12] Restaurant Chain Industry - The restaurant chain sector has shown signs of recovery since Q2 2025, with stable performance from leading companies like Lihua Bao and Baba Foods. The frozen food leader Anjins has also shown significant improvement in revenue [10][11] Zhujiang Beer - Zhujiang Beer is focusing on expanding its market share through its flagship product, Pure Draft 97, while also launching new products to maintain competitiveness. The company is developing its "15th Five-Year Plan" for future growth [15][17][18] H&H International Holdings - H&H International expects high single-digit revenue growth for the year, with EBITDA margins around 15%. The health supplement business is performing well, while the milk powder segment anticipates low double-digit growth [20] Jianhe Health - Jianhe Health's fundamentals are improving, driven by new consumer customer acquisition in China and profitability improvements in its overseas subsidiaries. The company is expected to see good performance in Q3 due to new orders [21][22] Additional Insights - The baijiu sector is currently viewed as a mid-to-long-term value investment opportunity, with market expectations warming up as demand-side pressures ease [2] - The innovative model of the Wan Shang Alliance is expected to have a significant impact on the company's financials, with a focus on long-term development and binding interests with distributors [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that Zhenjiu Lidou (06979) experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 2.497 billion yuan, down 39.58% year-on-year, and net profit at 575 million yuan, down 23.54% year-on-year [1] - The company is projected to have revenue growth rates of -20.0%, 14.9%, and 9.4% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of -6.2%, 18.6%, and 10.0% for the same period [1] - Revenue from different product lines in 2025H1 showed significant declines, with Zhenjiu, Lidou, Xiangjiao, Kaikouxiao, and others generating revenues of 1.492 billion, 611 million, 277 million, 81 million, and 36 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -44.8%, -9.4%, -38.7%, -63.9%, and -54.7% [1] Group 2 - The industry is currently undergoing an adjustment period with both volume and price declines, but the launch of new products like Lidou Gaoliang 1965 and Lidou Wang series has led to an increase in sales for the Lidou brand [2] - Revenue from different segments of liquor products in 2025H1 showed declines, with mid-to-high-end, next-to-high-end, and mid-range products generating revenues of 575 million, 982 million, and 940 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -47.3%, -41.6%, and -30.9% [2] - Revenue from distribution and direct sales channels in 2025H1 was 2.197 billion and 300 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -41.8% and -16.6% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Zhenjiu Lidou (06979) experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 2.497 billion yuan, down 39.58% year-on-year, and net profit at 575 million yuan, down 23.54% year-on-year [1] - The company forecasts revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 to be -20.0%, 14.9%, and 9.4%, respectively, while net profit growth rates are expected to be -6.2%, 18.6%, and 10.0% [1] - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating based on the average valuation of comparable companies for 2025 [1] Group 2 - In terms of product performance, the revenue for Zhenjiu, Lidou, Xiangjiao, Kaikouxiao, and others in 2025H1 was 1.492 billion, 611 million, 277 million, 81 million, and 36 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -44.8%, -9.4%, -38.7%, -63.9%, and -54.7% [1] - The average price per ton for these products was 32.3, 34.9, 58.6, 13.7, and 2.1 thousand yuan, with year-on-year changes of -17.0%, -29.1%, -3.6%, -4.0%, and -5.3% [1] - Sales volume for these products was 4,612, 1,752, 473, 590, and 1,698 tons, with year-on-year changes of -33.5%, +27.8%, -36.4%, -62.4%, and -52.1% [1] Group 3 - The industry is currently experiencing a period of adjustment, with both volume and price declining [2] - The company launched new products, including Li Du Gao Liang 1965 and Li Du Wang series, targeting rigid consumption scenarios such as weddings and graduation celebrations, which led to an increase in Li Du brand sales [2] - Revenue from high-end, sub-high-end, mid-range, and below products in 2025H1 was 575 million, 982 million, and 940 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -47.3%, -41.6%, and -30.9% [2] Group 4 - Revenue from distribution and direct sales channels in 2025H1 was 2.197 billion and 300 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -41.8% and -16.6% [2] - As of the end of 2025H1, the company had 3,259 distribution partners, 1,025 experience stores, and 2,835 retailers, with changes of +55, -72, and -499 partners respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a target price of 10.82 RMB over the next six months, corresponding to a 29.53X valuation for 2025 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 2.497 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 39.58%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 575 million RMB, down 23.54% year-on-year [1][2]. - Despite the overall industry downturn, the company's performance remained relatively stable, particularly in the Li Du brand, which saw a slight increase in sales due to new product launches targeting specific consumption scenarios [2][3]. - The gross margin improved slightly to 59.04%, primarily driven by an increase in the revenue share of high-margin products like Li Du, which accounted for 24.5% of total revenue [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to experience revenue growth rates of -20.0%, 14.9%, and 9.4% for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. Net profit growth rates are projected at -6.2%, 18.6%, and 10.0% for the same period [4][8]. - The report indicates that the gross margin for high-end products is projected to be 67.7%, while the net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 23.02% for the first half of 2025 [3][10]. Financial Metrics - As of September 12, 2025, the company's market capitalization is approximately 33.14 billion RMB, with a total share capital of 3.39 billion shares [6]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including total revenue estimates of 5.652 billion RMB for 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 20.0% [8][10]. Market Position and Competitive Analysis - The report compares the company's valuation with peers, indicating an average P/E ratio of 29.53 for 2025, suggesting a competitive positioning within the industry [9]. - The company has been actively adjusting its product offerings and marketing strategies to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions, particularly focusing on mid to high-end segments [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The company has launched an incentive plan for alliance merchants to promote long-term sustainable growth and development, with a focus on enhancing collaboration and performance within the "Wanshang Alliance" program [1][3]. Group 1: Incentive Plan Details - The incentive plan will utilize up to 169 million shares (5% of total shares) over the next five years, with the first grant expected in September 2025 [1]. - Eligible alliance merchants will have a lock-up period of 7 to 10 years, with performance targets determining the distribution of benefits [2]. - The plan will be adjusted based on company needs and market conditions, with the management committee determining eligibility based on performance and compliance [1][2]. Group 2: Performance and Market Impact - The "Wanshang Alliance" aims to address core channel pain points and establish sustainable competitive barriers, with the second season expected to continue strong momentum [3]. - In the first season, the program signed 2,418 alliance merchants and shipped to 1,182 merchants within 100 days, covering 30 provinces and 212 cities [3]. - The program integrates products, channels, and revenue mechanisms to tackle industry challenges, enhancing the role of distributors as "value co-creators" [3]. Group 3: Financial Projections - The company has a clear brand positioning and long-term strategic commitment, with expectations for revenue of 5.666 billion and 6.074 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]. - Non-IFRS adjusted net profits are projected to be 1.312 billion and 1.443 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, reflecting a decline in 2025 followed by growth in 2026 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities maintains a "strongly recommended" rating for Zhenjiu Lidu (06979), highlighting the innovative model that is expected to drive long-term growth [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - For the first half of 2025, the company is expected to clear its financial statements, with the launch of the "Dazhen" product aimed at addressing industry changes [1] - Projections for adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.41 billion, 1.54 billion, and 1.88 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of 26.8 times for 2025 [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company announced an equity payment plan that does not involve issuing new shares, primarily funded through donations from the controlling shareholder and some purchases in the secondary market, not exceeding 5% of the total issued shares [1] - The announcement reflects the high strategic positioning of the Dazhen product, with significant support from the controlling shareholder, Wu Xiangdong, who integrates resources from his other companies to bolster Dazhen [2] Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - The Dazhen model is seen as effectively addressing current channel pain points, with its innovative approach possessing unique industry characteristics [2] - The adjustment period in the industry is viewed as a critical development phase for companies, with initial returns for alliance merchants already being realized, which is expected to positively influence future expansion [2] - Ongoing observation of the company's pricing management and consumer feedback on products is necessary, with a long-term positive outlook on the expansion of the Dazhen model [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company maintains a "strongly recommended" rating for Zhenjiu Lidu (06979), highlighting the innovative model that is expected to drive long-term growth [1][2] - The company has introduced a new product, Dazhen, to respond to industry changes, which is anticipated to contribute significantly in the second half of 2025 [1] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.41 billion, 1.54 billion, and 1.88 billion respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of 26.8 times for 2025 [1] Group 2 - The announcement of the equity payment plan demonstrates the high strategic positioning of the Dazhen product, with the controlling shareholder providing financial support through donations and market purchases [2] - The integration of resources from other companies by the controlling shareholder, such as Jinliufu and Huazhi, reflects a strong commitment to establishing the Dazhen model as an industry benchmark [2] - The current industry adjustment period is viewed as a critical development phase for the company, with initial returns for alliance partners already being realized, which is expected to positively influence future partner expansion [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 10.07 HKD, with a transaction volume of 61.3 million HKD, following the announcement of the "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan" aimed at promoting long-term sustainable growth [1][1][1] Group 1 - The "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan" will initially set economic benefits corresponding to no more than 169 million shares, with the board having the authority to increase this based on circumstances [1][1] - As of now, 2,418 customers have signed up to become alliance merchants since the launch of the "Ten Thousand Merchants Alliance Plan" in May [1][1] - The second phase of the "Ten Thousand Merchants Alliance" is set to launch between September and December, with the first grant of the "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan" expected in September [1][1] Group 2 - Zheshang Securities highlights the strategic launch of the major product "Dazhen" in June 2025, which, along with the innovative "Ten Thousand Merchants Alliance" model, could become a new growth driver for the company, with a mid-term target of reaching 6 billion RMB [1][1] - The company is viewed as having turned around from a situation of poor performance, with the "Dazhen product" becoming a phenomenon, leading to expectations of exceeding mid to long-term performance forecasts [1][1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 10.07 HKD with a transaction volume of 61.30 million HKD, following the announcement of the "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan" aimed at promoting long-term sustainable growth [1] Group 1: Company Initiatives - The "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan" is set to allocate economic benefits corresponding to no more than 169 million shares, with the board having the authority to increase this based on circumstances [1] - As of now, 2,418 customers have signed up to become alliance merchants under the "Wanshang Alliance Plan" initiated in May [1] - The second phase of the Wanshang Alliance will commence between September and December, with the first grant of the "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan" expected in September [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Zheshang Securities (601878) highlights the launch of the strategic flagship product "Dazhen" in June 2025, which, along with the innovative Wanshang Alliance model, is anticipated to become a new growth driver for the company [1] - The mid-term target for "Dazhen" is projected to reach a scale of 6 billion RMB, driven by outstanding team capabilities and three major innovations [1] - The company is viewed as having turned around from a situation of poor performance, with the "Dazhen product" becoming a phenomenon, leading to expectations of exceeding mid-to-long-term performance forecasts [1]

Group 1 - Zhenjiu Lidu has launched a merchant equity payment plan to incentivize qualified merchants, promoting long-term sustainable growth and development [1] - The equity payment plan will source shares from the controlling shareholder's donations and purchases from the secondary market, with a total of up to 169 million shares initially set for donation or purchase [1] - This initiative is expected to optimize channel structure and enhance manufacturer cooperation, potentially leading to a new trend in the liquor industry [1] Group 2 - Shede Liquor has reported significant progress in its internationalization strategy, with overseas retail terminals reaching a total of 1,200 and duty-free stores increasing to 100 globally [2] - The company has expanded its international business to 40 countries and regions, with notable growth in the Southeast Asian market [2] - This expansion is likely to optimize the company's revenue structure and enhance its global brand influence [2] Group 3 - Jinhui Liquor announced that board member Wang Ning has resigned from his position but has been elected as a worker representative director [3] - Wang Ning has extensive experience in sales and management, which may assist in advancing the company's strategic initiatives [3] - The governance structure of the liquor industry is continuously improving, indicating a trend towards enhanced corporate governance [3]