Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.07 billion RMB for the year 2024, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit of 1.68 billion RMB, up 3.3% year-on-year [1]. - The second half of 2024 saw a decline in revenue to 2.93 billion RMB, down 16.5% year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 660 million RMB, down 19.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on high-end and next-high-end products, with revenue from high-end products decreasing by 11% to 1.71 billion RMB, while next-high-end products saw a 9% increase to 3.00 billion RMB [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.07 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5% and an adjusted net profit of 1.68 billion RMB, reflecting a 3.3% increase [1]. - The second half of 2024 experienced a revenue drop to 2.93 billion RMB, a decline of 16.5% year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 660 million RMB, down 19.7% [1]. Operational Analysis - Revenue by product for 2024: Zhenjiu 4.48 billion RMB (-2%), Lidou 1.31 billion RMB (+18%), Xiangjiao 800 million RMB (-4%), and Kaikouxiao 340 million RMB (-12%) [2]. - The company adjusted its market expansion strategy, slowing down the growth of Zhenjiu and focusing on high-end products, which still showed double-digit growth [2][3]. Financial Quality - The overall gross margin for 2024 increased by 0.6 percentage points to 58.6%, with adjusted net profit margin rising to 23.7% [3]. - The company reported a year-end balance of 6.9 billion RMB in accrued rebates and 1.75 billion RMB in advance customer payments, showing a slight increase and decrease respectively compared to the previous year [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a revenue growth of 3.0% in 2025, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 17.1% to 1.55 billion RMB [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 15.0X for 2025, 13.3X for 2026, and 10.6X for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [4].

Financial Performance - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 7,066,784 thousand, representing a 0.5% increase from RMB 7,030,467 thousand in 2023[7] - Gross profit for the same period was RMB 4,143,040 thousand, up 1.5% from RMB 4,079,948 thousand in 2023[7] - Profit attributable to equity shareholders for the year decreased by 43.1% to RMB 1,323,622 thousand from RMB 2,327,083 thousand in 2023[7] - Adjusted net profit (non-IFRS measure) increased by 3.3% to RMB 1,676,275 thousand from RMB 1,622,602 thousand in 2023[7] - Operating cash flow increased significantly by 116.3% to RMB 781,003 thousand from RMB 361,226 thousand in 2023[7] - The gross margin improved to 58.6% in 2024 from 58.0% in 2023, while the net margin decreased to 18.7% from 33.1%[10] - The company reported a net profit attributable to equity shareholders of RMB 1,323.6 million for the year, compared to RMB 2,327.1 million in 2023, a decline of 43.2%[96] - Total revenue for the year 2024 reached RMB 7,066,784,000, a slight increase from RMB 7,030,467,000 in 2023, representing a year-over-year growth of 0.5%[106] - The company reported a pre-tax profit of RMB 1,894,332,000 for 2024, down from RMB 2,885,682,000 in 2023, representing a decline of 34.4%[113] Brand Performance - The flagship brand, Zhenjiu, contributed approximately 63.4% of the company's revenue as of December 31, 2024, maintaining its position as the fourth largest sauce-flavored liquor brand in China[20] - Revenue from the brand Zhenjiu decreased by 2.3% to RMB 4,479.7 million, primarily due to adjustments in sales channels and a strategic reduction in lower-margin products[59] - Revenue from the brand Lidu increased by 18.3% to RMB 1,312.9 million, driven by the growth of core products and expansion into markets outside Jiangxi Province[59] - Revenue from the brand Xiangjiao decreased by 3.7% to RMB 802.5 million, with a decline in sales of the strong aroma series partially offset by growth in the Longjiang series[59] - Revenue from the brand Kaikouxiao decreased by 12.3% to RMB 337.4 million, impacted by a sluggish wedding market and a reduction in low-margin product sales[59] Market Strategy and Expansion - The company plans to expand into new consumption scenarios and explore cross-industry collaborations, particularly in business and tourism sectors[13] - The company plans to expand its sales channels and high-end customer base, with a focus on developing diverse consumption scenarios and cross-industry collaborations[17] - The company is strategically expanding its market presence beyond Jiangxi Province while continuing to enhance its product matrix with more mid-to-high-end offerings[26] - The company aims to support the application for the inclusion of Chinese liquor in the World Cultural Heritage tentative list, collaborating with other leading liquor enterprises[25] - The company is expanding its brand presence internationally, with events in Hong Kong and Japan to promote the Li Du brand[47] Product Development and Innovation - The company launched new product lines in 2024, including the 2013 True Vintage Liquor and Qianli Tiaoyi, enhancing its market penetration in the high-end segment[22] - The company launched upgraded versions of its main product lines, including the second generation of Li Du Sorghum 1955 and 1975, and successfully introduced a high-end product, Li Du Sorghum 1308, which won the Grand Gold Medal at the ISGC 2024 International Spirits (China) Awards shortly after its launch[26] - The company has established strategic partnerships with several universities and research institutions to enhance product R&D capabilities, including a strategic cooperation agreement with Guizhou University in 2024[32] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product mix and expanding its mid-range and above product lines to adapt to market demand[61] Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented a modern equity incentive plan post-IPO to maximize team effectiveness and has adjusted its organizational structure to enhance operational efficiency[4] - A comprehensive digital management system has been implemented to streamline operations and improve overall profitability through data analysis[38] - The company launched a quality management system in 2024, covering all aspects of production quality, which enhances batch quality management and traceability[39] - The company developed a channel management platform to enhance transparency and efficiency in the distribution process, allowing distributors to manage procurement and inventory effectively[40] Sustainability and ESG Initiatives - The company is committed to ESG initiatives, including replacing ceramic bottles with glass bottles to reduce energy consumption and improve sustainability[48] - The company aims for over 50% of its energy consumption to come from renewable sources by 2024, as part of its sustainability initiatives[49] - The company received an ESG "AA" rating from Wind Information and was included in the top 100 ESG best practices list in China[50] - The company is committed to improving energy efficiency and reducing consumption intensity across various resources, contributing to significant cost savings[49] Financial Management - The company has sufficient base liquor inventory to support rapid growth in its mid-range and premium product lines, enhancing competitiveness in the market[33] - The number of distribution partners increased from 2,938 in 2023 to 3,204 in 2024, while retail partners rose from 3,143 to 3,334, indicating a robust expansion of the distribution network[37] - Cash generated from operating activities was approximately RMB 781.0 million for the year ending December 31, 2024, after adjustments for non-cash and non-operating items[84] - As of December 31, 2024, bank deposits and cash amounted to RMB 6,202.2 million, compared to RMB 6,053.2 million as of December 31, 2023, while bank and other borrowings increased to RMB 510.2 million from RMB 36.6 million[85] Employee and Organizational Structure - The company had 11,380 full-time employees as of December 31, 2024, an increase from 10,956 employees as of June 30, 2024[93] - The total employee costs for the year amounted to approximately RMB 2,224.4 million, reflecting the company's investment in workforce development[93] - The product development team consists of 252 employees, with a significant majority holding bachelor's degrees or higher, and is led by a technical committee of 78 renowned liquor experts[30] Corporate Governance - The board of directors includes both executive and independent non-executive members, ensuring corporate governance compliance[153] - The audit committee has reviewed the audited financial performance for the year ending December 31, 2024, confirming consistency with the financial statements[148] - The company is registered in the Cayman Islands and was established on September 24, 2021[150] - The company’s shares were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 27, 2023[151]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [5][21]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant growth over the past 15 years, with total sales revenue increasing by 300 times and tax contributions growing by 340 times since its restructuring in 2009 [2]. - The company aims to become a world-class liquor enterprise in the next 50 years, leveraging its strong brand heritage and innovative product offerings [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on dual-channel marketing, targeting both traditional and emerging markets to enhance brand influence among high-net-worth individuals [3]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Growth**: The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 5,856 million yuan in 2022 to 9,254 million yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.8% [1]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to fluctuate, with a peak of 2,327 million yuan in 2023, followed by a decline to 1,592 million yuan in 2024, before recovering to 2,414 million yuan by 2026 [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.30 yuan in 2022 to 0.71 yuan in 2026, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [1]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 24.9 in 2022 to 10.6 by 2026, indicating improved valuation attractiveness [1]. Industry Insights - The report notes a turning point in the liquor industry, particularly in the sauce-flavored liquor segment, with a projected reduction in overall production capacity by approximately 100,000 tons in the upcoming production seasons [4][9]. - Despite the overall adjustment in the liquor market, the sauce-flavored liquor segment is expected to continue growing, capturing a larger market share [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but it is implied that the company is positioned for potential growth in the future [38]. Core Insights - The sauce liquor industry is experiencing a significant transformation, with a focus on brand concentration and market expansion, particularly in the mid to high-end segments [5][6]. - The overall revenue of the sauce liquor industry reached approximately 230 billion yuan in 2023, with profits of around 94 billion yuan, accounting for 30% and 40% of the total liquor industry, respectively [7]. - The company has established a robust channel management system, leveraging a dual-driven model of distribution and group purchasing, which enhances its market presence and operational efficiency [21][60]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The sauce liquor industry has high entry barriers due to factors such as production cycle length and brand investment, leading to a concentration of market share among leading brands [6]. - The demand for sauce liquor has been driven by rising consumer wealth and a shift towards quality consumption since 2016, with brands like Moutai leading the market [7]. Market Dynamics - The market for sauce liquor is expected to continue expanding, with significant growth potential in provinces with high consumption levels, such as Henan, Shandong, and Guangdong [9]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery of business demand and the maturation of its sales and marketing strategies [17][57]. Financial Analysis - The company's gross profit margin is projected to remain stable, with a slight increase expected in the coming years, while expenses are anticipated to improve gradually as operational efficiencies are realized [45][47]. - The company has implemented a rigorous inventory management system, which allows for better control over stock levels and sales performance [28][60]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to navigate through the current market adjustments effectively, leveraging its strong channel management capabilities to capture market opportunities as demand recovers [57]. - The anticipated increase in production capacity in the sauce liquor sector is projected to reach 800,000 to 1,000,000 kiloliters by 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the industry [25].

股 票 研 究 海 外 公 司 （ 中 国 香 港 ） 证 券 研 究 报 告 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议：维持增持评级。考虑 24H2 起白酒进入产业调整期，中 高档及以上价位带面临压力，下调公司 2024-26 年经调整 EPS 至 0.49 元（前值 0.59 元）、0.52 元（0.73 元）、0.55 元（0.89 元），当 前股价对应 2024 年 12X PE。 Q3 行业降速，公司坚持品质经营。24Q3 及国庆白酒大盘动销平淡， 公司注重结构和盈利，主动放慢渠道进度。其中主品牌珍酒通过升 级、扩产等实现优能优品的战略导向，珍十五再度获得专业赛事认 可并将推出升级后的四代珍十五，品质和知名度的提升有助于推动 消费场景和客群不断扩张；珍三十独立事业部运营后将以流通渠道 开发为目标，推进速度受次高端价位带白酒运行情况影响；高档酒 定位独特、渠道竞争相对较小，预计仍保持较快增长。第二品牌李 渡当前仍处于省内拓价位带、省外做市场阶段，预计延续此前趋势、 增速快于集团整体。 强化品牌力，拔高市场形象。公司致力于品牌培育，体验式营销是 重要抓手，2024 年在品鉴会、回厂游等的基础 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 12.01, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 7.91 [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from a three-engine growth model, with its flagship brand, Zhenjiu, leading the way, followed by Li Du and regional brands like Xiangjiao and Kaikouxiao [9][10]. - The management team, led by founder Wu Xiangdong, has extensive experience in the liquor industry, which is seen as a key advantage for navigating market challenges [17][23]. - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42.79% from 2020 to 2023, driven by strategic acquisitions and brand development [10][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Three-Engine Growth Model - The company has integrated high-quality assets to create a three-engine growth model, consisting of Zhenjiu, Li Du, and Xiangjiao & Kaikouxiao, which are expected to drive future growth [9][10]. - Zhenjiu has become a leading national brand in the mid-to-high-end liquor segment, contributing 65% of total sales in 2023, with revenue growing from CNY 1.346 billion to CNY 4.583 billion from 2020 to 2023, achieving a CAGR of 50.46% [12][38]. - Li Du, contributing 16% of sales, has transitioned to the high-end market with revenue increasing from CNY 0.359 billion to CNY 1.110 billion during the same period, with a CAGR of 45.63% [12][38]. - Xiangjiao and Kaikouxiao, as regional leaders, contributed 17% of sales, with Xiangjiao's revenue growing from CNY 0.395 billion to CNY 0.834 billion (CAGR of 28.28%) and Kaikouxiao's from CNY 0.172 billion to CNY 0.385 billion (CAGR of 30.77%) [12][13]. 2. Management Experience - The founder, Wu Xiangdong, has over 20 years of experience in the liquor industry, having successfully navigated various market cycles and established a strong brand presence [17][23]. - The management team has a proven track record in brand building and market expansion, which is critical for the company's future growth [24][27]. 3. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 85.32 billion, CNY 102.28 billion, and CNY 120.38 billion from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of CNY 18.97 billion, CNY 25.33 billion, and CNY 33.51 billion [2]. - The report uses a P/E valuation method, estimating a target P/E of 19.5x for 2024, leading to a target market capitalization of CNY 37 billion [2][12].

Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 4,133,191, representing a 17.5% increase from RMB 3,518,957 in the same period of 2023[6]. - Gross profit for the same period was RMB 2,428,682, up 19.2% from RMB 2,037,148 in 2023[7]. - Profit attributable to equity shareholders decreased by 52.6% to RMB 751,718 from RMB 1,584,899 in the prior year[7]. - Adjusted net profit increased by 26.9% to RMB 1,018,123 compared to RMB 802,519 in 2023[7]. - Basic earnings per share decreased by 61.3% to RMB 0.230 from RMB 0.594 in 2023[7]. - Diluted earnings per share decreased by 12.8% to RMB 0.227 from RMB 0.260 in the same period last year[7]. - The net profit margin decreased significantly to 18.2% from 45.0% in 2023[11]. - The adjusted net profit margin improved to 24.6% compared to 22.8% in the previous year[11]. Revenue Contributions by Brand - Zhen Jiu, the flagship brand, contributed approximately 65.4% of the company's revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024[22]. - Revenue from Zhen Jiu increased by 17.2% to RMB 2,702.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 2,305.9 million in the same period of 2023[66]. - Revenue from Li Du surged by 37.9% to RMB 674.5 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, up from RMB 489.2 million in the same period of 2023[66]. - Revenue from Xiang Jiao rose by 2.4% to RMB 452.5 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 442.0 million in the same period of 2023[66]. - Revenue from Kai Kou Xiao increased by 1.6% to RMB 224.4 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, from RMB 221.0 million in the same period of 2023[66]. Operational Efficiency and Strategic Initiatives - The company continues to focus on enhancing operational efficiency and expanding market presence through strategic initiatives[6]. - The company is implementing a dual-channel growth strategy to expand emerging sales channels and high-end customer base[17]. - The company is enhancing distributor quality to strengthen market competitiveness in distribution channels[17]. - The company aims to further strengthen brand recognition and expand the national sales network outside Jiangxi Province for its second growth engine, Li Du[21]. - The company is optimizing resource allocation across production costs and marketing expenses[17]. Product Development and Innovation - Zhen Jiu launched several new package-free baijiu products in the first half of 2023, including the Zhen 15 Series - Gold Medal Commemorative Edition and Zhen 30 Series - Grand Gold Medal Commemorative Edition[23]. - The company plans to expand its product matrix to include more premium and mid-range products to prepare for future scaled expansion[27]. - The company aims to enhance consumer experience by upgrading its main product lines, including the launch of the second generation of Li Du Sorghum 1955 and Li Du Sorghum 1975 in February 2024[27]. - Zhen Jiu strategically expanded its product portfolio to cater to specific consumption scenarios, launching "Zhen Banquet" in late May 2024[23]. Sustainability and ESG Initiatives - The Group received an ESG "AA" rating from Wind, becoming the first company in the baijiu industry to achieve this recognition[57]. - The Group's energy efficiency improvements are aligned with ISO50001 energy management system requirements[104]. - The Group implemented a packaging bottle washing water recycling system and reclaimed water reuse system to reduce water consumption intensity[105]. - The Group aims to implement over 100 ESG enhancement tasks in the next six months, focusing on sustainable practices[1]. - The transition from ceramic to glass bottles is part of the company's ESG strategy, with 89,000 ceramic bottles replaced in the first half of 2024[52]. Financial Position and Cash Flow - Net cash generated from operating activities surged by 166.2% to RMB 574,886 from RMB 215,960 in the previous year[7]. - Cash at bank and on hand was approximately RMB 6,111.8 million as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 6,053.2 million as of December 31, 2023[99]. - Total capital expenditure for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was approximately RMB 512.4 million, down from RMB 564.5 million in 1H2023[100]. - The company reported a balance of total equity at June 30, 2024, amounting to RMB 13,194,059,000[167]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2024, Mr. Wu holds a 66.69% interest in the company through controlled corporations, with 2,259,964,000 shares[110]. - The total number of issued shares of the company as of June 30, 2024, is 3,388,623,550 shares[111]. - The Board did not recommend the payment of any interim dividend for the six months ended June 30, 2024[124]. - The Post-IPO Equity Incentive Plan allows for the issuance of up to 163,566,552 shares, which is 5% of the relevant class of shares in issue on the Listing Date[127].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.133 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.5%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.018 billion yuan, up 26.9% year-on-year, showcasing robust revenue growth and strong performance [2]. - The company's main product,珍酒, achieved a revenue of 2.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.2%, accounting for 65.4% of total revenue. The sales volume and price per ton increased by 7.9% and 8.6% respectively, driven by the growth of high-end product series [2]. - 李渡, another key product, saw a revenue of 670 million yuan, with a remarkable year-on-year growth of 37.9%, and its revenue contribution rose to 16.3%. The sales volume and price per ton increased by 30.2% and 5.9% respectively, indicating strong market penetration [2]. - The company has optimized its internal operations, leading to improved profitability, with a gross margin of 58.8% and an adjusted net profit margin of 24.6% in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9 and 1.8 percentage points respectively [2]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 1.756 billion yuan, 2.166 billion yuan, and 2.551 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a year-on-year change of -25%, 23%, and 18% [5][11]. - The projected revenue growth rates are 20% for 2024, 15% for 2025, and 14% for 2026, indicating a stable growth trajectory [5][11]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 60.8% by 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to be 23% in the same year [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 4.13 billion RMB in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, with a net profit of 750 million RMB and an adjusted net profit of 1.02 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.9% [2]. - The growth is driven by the brands Zhenjiu and Lidu, with significant improvements in product structure and sales performance across different price segments [2]. - The company is expected to continue its sustainable growth through new product launches, optimizing distributors, and enhancing brand strength, particularly in key markets like Guangdong and Hunan [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 58.8%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with Zhenjiu and Lidu achieving gross margins of 59% and 66.8%, respectively [2]. - The company’s sales and management expense ratios were 21.85% and 6.65%, respectively, showing a decrease in sales expenses due to improved efficiency in the sales team [2]. - The forecast for revenue from 2024 to 2026 is projected to be 8.45 billion, 10.10 billion, and 11.62 billion RMB, with corresponding adjusted net profits of 2.02 billion, 2.46 billion, and 2.88 billion RMB, indicating growth rates of 24.5%, 21.6%, and 17.2% respectively [3][4].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/饮料 证券研究报告 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | [Table_StockInfo]08 月 22 日收盘价(HKD) | 7.10 | | 52 周股价波动(HKD) | 6.90-12.84 | | 股本结构 | | | [总股本 Table_CapitalInfo /流通 H 股(百万股] ) | 3389/3389 | | 总市值/流通市值 | | | (百万 HKD) | 24059/24059 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《高端引领结构优化，逆势向上彰显价 | | | 值》2024.03.28 | | | 《三大引擎共筑成长，精耕细作布局长 | | 远》2024.01.29 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------- ...