SINGAPORE, Aug. 14, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Trip.com Group Limited (Nasdaq: TCOM; HKEX: 9961), a leading one-stop travel service provider of accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours and corporate travel management, will announce its financial results for the three months and six months ended June 30, 2024 on Monday, August 26, 2024, U.S. Time.Trip.com Group's management team will host a conference call at 8:00 PM U.S. Eastern Time on August 26, 2024 (or 8:00 AM on August 27, 2024 in ...

Company Performance - Trip.com (TCOM) closed at $41.87, reflecting a -0.92% change compared to the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.47% [1] - Over the past month, Trip.com shares have decreased by 14.26%, while the Consumer Discretionary sector and the S&P 500 have lost 2.38% and 4.45%, respectively [1] - The upcoming earnings disclosure is projected to show earnings of $0.74 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 5.71%, with revenue expected to reach $1.78 billion, a 14.96% increase from the same quarter last year [1] Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are estimated at $3.20 per share and revenue at $7.31 billion, representing increases of +16.79% and +17.4% from the prior year [2] - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Trip.com are crucial as they reflect short-term business trends, with positive changes indicating a favorable outlook on the company's health and profitability [2] Valuation and Industry Ranking - Trip.com has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate having decreased by 3.45% in the past month [3] - The company has a Forward P/E ratio of 13.21, which is lower than the industry average of 17.92, indicating that Trip.com is trading at a discount compared to its peers [3] - The Leisure and Recreation Services industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 205, placing it in the bottom 19% of over 250 industries [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Trip com Group (TCOM) with a target price of $54 62, representing a 25 8% upside from the current price of $43 43 [1][5] Core Views - Trip com Group is the leader in China's online travel market and is expanding globally through strategic acquisitions and technological innovation [1][14] - The company has demonstrated strong resilience and recovery post-pandemic, with 2023 revenue and non-GAAP net profit surpassing pre-pandemic levels [60][61] - Trip com Group's international business has become a significant growth driver, with overseas revenue accounting for 13 2% of total revenue in 2023, up from 9 5% in 2018 [77] Business Overview Domestic Market Leadership - Trip com Group dominates China's OTA market with a strong presence in high-end hotels and a comprehensive supply chain network [21][27] - The company has a healthy user base, with 87% of users being middle to high-income consumers and 66% aged between 80s and 90s [34][38] International Expansion - Trip com Group has accelerated its global expansion through acquisitions like Skyscanner and Trip com, establishing a strong presence in Asia, Europe, and North America [14][78] - The company's international revenue reached RMB 5 89 billion in 2023, nearly doubling from 2018 levels [77] Financial Performance - Trip com Group's 2023 revenue reached RMB 44 56 billion, a 122 2% YoY increase, with non-GAAP net profit of RMB 13 07 billion, up 910 1% YoY [6] - The company's 2024-2026 revenue is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 15 6%, with non-GAAP net profit expected to reach RMB 20 36 billion by 2026 [6] Growth Drivers Domestic Market - Trip com Group benefits from China's post-pandemic travel recovery, with domestic travel demand remaining strong [63][65] - The company's focus on high-end hotels and cross-selling opportunities between transportation and accommodation services drives revenue growth [24][26] International Market - Trip com Group's overseas platforms, Trip com and Skyscanner, are key growth engines, with Trip com's revenue contribution expected to exceed 10% in 2024 [87] - The company's differentiated strategy in Asia and non-confrontational approach in欧美 markets have helped it gain market share [85][86] Industry Outlook - China's tourism industry is expected to maintain steady growth, with online penetration rates continuing to rise, benefiting leading OTA platforms like Trip com Group [55] - The global online travel market has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with Trip com Group well-positioned to capture growth opportunities in both domestic and international markets [70][74] Strategic Initiatives - Trip com Group has invested heavily in technology, including AI and big data, to enhance user experience and operational efficiency [81] - The company's localized services and multi-language support have improved its competitiveness in international markets [81][82]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group [4][64]. Core Views - Concerns in the market regarding potential pressure on hotel and flight prices in 2024 and increased competition from local players like Meituan and Douyin are addressed. However, the report argues that Trip.com has high user stickiness, strong consumer spending power, and a deep inventory supply, which positions it well against other OTA platforms [2][9]. - The recovery of outbound tourism is highlighted as a significant growth driver, with Trip.com expected to outperform the industry in this segment due to its localized service advantages and low commission rates [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Trip.com Group is a leading online travel agency (OTA) that offers a comprehensive range of travel services globally, including over 1.2 million accommodation options and partnerships with more than 480 airlines [14][15]. - The company has established a robust business matrix that includes accommodation booking, transportation ticketing, vacation services, and business travel management [20][21]. Industry Analysis - The tourism industry is experiencing a strong recovery, with domestic travel expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2024. The report anticipates that outbound travel will recover to over 80% of 2019 levels [25][26]. - The online travel market's penetration is projected to increase, with online sales expected to reach 76% by 2027 [29][30]. Business Performance and Forecast - Revenue forecasts for Trip.com are set at 52.5 billion, 60.3 billion, and 68.5 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 18.0%, 14.8%, and 13.7% [3][62]. - The report predicts net profit for the same years to be 12.285 billion, 14.879 billion, and 17.164 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 23.87%, 21.12%, and 15.36% [3][62]. Competitive Positioning - Trip.com is positioned favorably against competitors like Booking and Expedia due to its lower commission rates and a diversified service offering that includes cross-selling opportunities [57][58]. - The company has a strong user base that is less price-sensitive, which enhances its competitive edge in the market [39][42]. Growth Drivers - The recovery of inbound tourism and the expansion of overseas business are identified as key growth drivers, with Trip.com leveraging its international presence and partnerships to enhance service offerings [54][60]. - The report emphasizes the importance of a well-developed membership system that contributes to customer loyalty and higher spending [45][46].

Company Overview - Trip.com (TCOM) closed at $43.35, reflecting a -0.18% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500 which gained 1.11% [1] - The stock has decreased by 8.57% over the past month, compared to a loss of 3.51% in the Consumer Discretionary sector and a loss of 1.16% in the S&P 500 [1] Earnings Projections - Upcoming earnings release is highly anticipated, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of $0.74, indicating a 5.71% increase year-over-year [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is $1.78 billion, representing a 15.01% increase from the same quarter last year [1] - For the full year, projected earnings are $3.18 per share and revenue is $7.28 billion, reflecting increases of +16.06% and +16.93% respectively from the prior year [1] Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent changes in analyst estimates are crucial, with a 4.15% decrease in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate over the past month [2] - Trip.com currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a neutral outlook [2] Valuation Metrics - Trip.com has a Forward P/E ratio of 13.66, which is lower than the industry average Forward P/E of 16.71, suggesting a valuation discount [3] - The Leisure and Recreation Services industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 199, placing it in the bottom 22% of over 250 industries [3]

Investors interested in Consumer Discretionary stocks should always be looking to find the best-performing companies in the group. Trip.com (TCOM) is a stock that can certainly grab the attention of many investors, but do its recent returns compare favorably to the sector as a whole? A quick glance at the company's year-to-date performance in comparison to the rest of the Consumer Discretionary sector should help us answer this question.Trip.com is one of 281 individual stocks in the Consumer Discretionary ...

Company Overview - Trip.com closed at $45.36, showing a slight increase of +0.07% from the previous session, outperforming the S&P 500's decline of 0.71% [1] - Over the past month, Trip.com shares have decreased by 9.3%, underperforming the Consumer Discretionary sector's loss of 0.43% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.08% [1] Financial Performance - The upcoming earnings per share (EPS) for Trip.com is projected at $0.79, representing a 12.86% increase year-over-year [1] - Revenue is expected to reach $1.79 billion, reflecting a 15.27% increase from the same quarter last year [1] - For the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict an EPS of $3.08 and revenue of $7.3 billion, indicating increases of +12.41% and +17.23% respectively from the previous year [2] Analyst Estimates and Market Sentiment - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Trip.com suggest a favorable outlook on the company's business health and profitability [2] - The Zacks Rank system currently rates Trip.com as 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive sentiment among analysts [3] - The Forward P/E ratio for Trip.com is 14.72, which is lower than the industry average of 17.09, suggesting a valuation discount [3] Industry Context - Trip.com operates within the Leisure and Recreation Services industry, which is part of the Consumer Discretionary sector [3] - The current Zacks Industry Rank for this sector is 153, placing it in the bottom 40% of over 250 industries [3]

Company Performance - Trip.com closed at $49.29, with a daily increase of +0.61%, outperforming the S&P 500 which fell by 0.88% [1] - The stock has decreased by 3.53% over the past month, underperforming the Consumer Discretionary sector's loss of 2.04% and the S&P 500's gain of 5.11% [1] - Upcoming earnings per share (EPS) is projected at $0.79, a 12.86% increase year-over-year, with revenue expected to be $1.79 billion, indicating a 15.27% increase compared to the same quarter last year [1] Annual Estimates - For the annual period, earnings are anticipated at $3.08 per share and revenue at $7.3 billion, reflecting increases of +12.41% and +17.23% respectively from the previous year [2] - Changes in analyst estimates are crucial as they indicate the evolving business trends, with positive revisions suggesting analyst optimism about the company's profitability [2] Zacks Rank and Valuation - Trip.com holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), with a historical average annual return of +25% for 1 ranked stocks since 1988 [3] - The company is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 15.91, which is lower than the industry average Forward P/E of 16.8 [3] - The Leisure and Recreation Services industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 169, placing it in the bottom 33% of over 250 industries [3]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com (TCOM) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][2]. Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trip.com projects earnings of $3.08 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 12.4% [5]. - Over the past three months, the consensus estimate for Trip.com has risen by 4.9%, indicating a trend of increasing earnings estimates [5]. Impact of Earnings Estimates on Stock Prices - Changes in earnings estimates are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements, largely due to institutional investors who adjust their valuations based on these estimates [3]. - The upgrade in Trip.com's rating suggests an improvement in its underlying business, which is expected to drive the stock price higher as investors respond to this trend [3][7]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [4]. - The upgrade of Trip.com to Zacks Rank 1 places it in the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating strong potential for price appreciation in the near term [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Trip.com Group-S (09961 HK) with a "Recommend" rating and a target price of HK$506 [1] Core Views - Trip com is a leading one-stop online travel platform in China with a strong domestic market position and high growth potential in international markets [1] - The company's domestic business is stable with a competitive advantage in high-income high-consumption and sticky users while its international business is expected to drive future growth [1][7] - The report forecasts revenue growth of 15 3% 14 0% and 13 5% for 2024-2026 with non-GAAP net profit growth of 20 6% 15 6% and 13 5% respectively [1][8] Business Model and Industry Overview - Online travel platforms (OTAs) are the optimal business model in the travel industry with leading players like Booking and Airbnb achieving high operation margins [13] - The OTA industry in China has grown rapidly with a CAGR of 34 4% from 2013-2019 and is expected to reach RMB2 53 trillion in 2023 [16] - The industry is divided into three main segments: online transportation online accommodation and online vacation with transportation having the highest online penetration rate [18] Domestic Market - Trip com has a strong domestic market position with a deep supply chain and high-quality user base [1][7] - The company has a competitive advantage in high-star hotels and a strong "air + hotel" integrated service offering [47] - Trip com is expanding its user base by targeting younger users and lower-tier cities while also enhancing its content-to-transaction conversion capabilities [51][53] International Market - China's outbound travel penetration rate is relatively low at 12% in 2019 compared to the global average of 26% indicating significant growth potential [1][59] - Trip com is focusing on outbound travel and its overseas platforms (Skyscanner and Trip com) to drive international growth [1][7] - The company's overseas strategy includes leveraging its brand user acquisition and low commission rates to compete with established players like Booking and Expedia [1][7] Financial Performance - Trip com's revenue and non-GAAP net profit reached RMB44 51 billion and RMB13 07 billion in 2023 representing a 24 8% and 100 3% increase compared to 2019 [1][30] - The company's gross margin improved to 81 8% in 2023 while its sales expense ratio decreased to 20 7% reflecting improved operational efficiency [32] Valuation and Forecast - The report values Trip com at 20x 2024 PE with a target market cap of HK$345 7 billion representing a 31% upside from the current price [1][8] - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14 3% from 2024-2026 with non-GAAP net profit growing at a CAGR of 16 4% over the same period [8]