图书 交易的真谛 如何找寻交易的确定性 丁亮 / 当代世界出版社 / 2025-1出版 / 280 已读过 ★★★★★ 2025.02.2 豆瓣评分。 9.8 34人 194 43人读过 4人在读 18人想读 前往京东商城购买 纸质版 ¥ 55.63 ¥ 89.00 立即贴 当代世界出版社,2025-1出版,共280页 有人说，字节不上市，等于把时代最大的红利，只留给内部人， 不让二级市场股东（也就是你我、买腾讯阿里的普通人）分享。 - 现在抢腾讯、阿里时长、广告、电商、入口的，是字节 - 但买不到字节股票的，是我们这些普通投资者 - 一边被它抢走用户，一边还拿着它对手的股票 - 等于被"双面收割" 这对普通股民、对长期持有腾讯阿里的人，真的不公平。 为什么说"对用户不好"？ 1. 时代红利被封闭了 AI+短视频+全球增长，这是这十年最确定的大机会。 但它不上市，普通人只能看，不能上车。 2. 你持有的老巨头，在被它持续抽血 时长被抢、广告被抢、用户习惯被抢、AI入口被抢。 你拿着腾讯、阿里，相当于守着旧时代资产，被新时代资产持续压制。 3. 最气的是：你越用它，它越强，你手里股票越难涨 你每天刷抖音、用豆包 ...

文/陈岩鹏 这个世界有时候就是这么巧。 2014年，农历甲午马年，微信红包横空出世。那一年，张小龙团队做的一个小功能，改写了中国移动支 付的格局。 2026年，农历丙午马年，AI红包全面爆发。这一年，字节、阿里、腾讯、百度砸下超过45亿元，争夺 下一代智能入口。 十二年一个轮回。 两匹"马"，恰好踩准了中国互联网两次最大的浪潮。 第一个马年：那匹"黑马"是怎么跑出来的？ 2014年春节，微信团队做了一个小功能——红包。 2015年春晚，微信乘胜追击，正式开启"春晚红包"时代。那一夜，"摇一摇"摇出了10亿次红包收发，摇 出了微信支付的逆袭，也摇出了此后十二年的互联网春晚大战。 十二年间：那些年我们追过的红包 从2014到2026，这十二年是怎样的十二年？ 是移动互联网从崛起到饱和的十二年。是BAT从鼎盛到分化，TMD从崛起到登台的十二年。是流量从 廉价到昂贵的十二年，是用户从新鲜到疲惫的十二年。 我们看着春晚红包从"摇一摇"变成"集五福"，从"拼手速"变成"拼社交"，从"抢几块钱"变成"抢几亿"。 我们看着互联网大厂轮番登场，微信、支付宝、淘宝、百度、快手、抖音、京东、拼多多——没有一个 缺席过春晚。 我们也 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's technology industry has initiated an AI "hundred model war," with a series of domestic AI models being released and upgraded, indicating that the impact of Chinese technology on the world is just beginning [1][17]. - Multiple Chinese tech companies, including Moonlight Dark Side, Zhiyu, and Xiyu Technology, have launched new generation AI large models since before the Spring Festival, with ByteDance releasing the Doubao Model 2.0 series on February 14, enhancing its ability to perform complex real-world tasks [3][5]. - The Seedance 2.0 video generation model was officially launched by ByteDance, showcasing its capabilities during the 2026 Spring Festival Gala, where it animated a traditional Chinese ink painting, demonstrating advanced motion and camera control [7][9]. Group 2 - The release of Seedance 2.0 has sparked global discussions, with industry insiders noting that the focus on video and image generation models represents the next stage of AI technology, with breakthroughs occurring sooner than previously expected [11]. - The recent upgrades in domestic AI models emphasize the development of "AI agents," which are designed to perform more complex tasks beyond basic language communication, resembling intelligent assistants [13]. - Alibaba released the new base model Qianwen 3.5 on February 16, which supports mixed visual and text pre-training and significantly enhances capabilities in problem-solving, spatial reasoning, and video understanding [15]. Group 3 - Following the release of domestic models, several Chinese chip companies announced compatibility with these models, indicating that they can run effectively on their chips, achieving expected performance levels [15][17]. - Huawei's Ascend chips are providing training support for domestic large models, showcasing China's rapid progress in AI despite export controls, with innovations emerging from demand-driven needs [17].

Group 1 - Major blue-chip stocks mostly rose, with HSBC Holdings closing at HKD 137.775, up 2.59% from the previous close in Hong Kong [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 531.758, an increase of 1.87% from the previous close in Hong Kong [2] Group 2 - Tencent Holdings reported a latest price of HKD 522.000, down HKD 11.000 or 2.06%, with an ADR price of HKD 531.758, showing an increase of HKD 9.758 compared to the Hong Kong stock price [3] - Alibaba Group (W) had a latest price of HKD 147.100, down HKD 7.600 or 4.91%, with an ADR price of HKD 150.874, reflecting an increase of HKD 3.774 compared to the Hong Kong stock price [3] - HSBC Holdings had a latest price of HKD 134.300, up HKD 0.100 or 0.07%, with an ADR price of HKD 137.775, indicating an increase of HKD 3.475 compared to the Hong Kong stock price [3]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.10%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.91% on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, with a total market turnover of 165.37 billion HKD [6][9] - Notable stock movements included a significant rise in Zhihui (02513.HK) by 42.72%, reaching a market capitalization of over 320 billion HKD, and MINIMAX-WP (00100.HK) increasing by 14.52% [6][9] - Conversely, major tech stocks like Baidu (09888.HK) and Alibaba (09988.HK) saw declines of over 5% [6][9] Sector Trends - Oil, artificial intelligence, and robotics sectors showed strong performance despite the overall market decline, while sectors such as film and entertainment, internet healthcare, and online retail struggled [6][9] - The AI application and robotics concept stocks were highlighted as outperformers in a generally bearish market environment [1][6] Trade Agreements - The U.S. and Indonesia have finalized a reciprocal trade agreement aimed at expanding market access for U.S. goods, with Indonesia agreeing to eliminate tariffs on over 99% of U.S. exports [6] - The agreement includes approximately 33 billion USD in commercial cooperation, covering energy, aviation, and agricultural products [6] Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan revised down his expectations for significant interest rate cuts this year, citing stronger-than-expected employment data and persistent inflation [7] - Milan's updated stance suggests a potential reduction of 1 percentage point from the current rate of 3.5% to 3.75% [7]

Market Overview - After the Spring Festival holiday, Hong Kong stocks faced pressure, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 1.1% to 26,413.35 points, and a total trading volume of 165.37 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.91%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 1.22% [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - PetroChina (00857) led blue-chip gains, rising 3.7% to 9.52 HKD, contributing 11.57 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances included Henderson Land (00012) up 3% and Midea Group (00300) up 2.73%, while Alibaba (09988) fell 4.91%, dragging the index down by 101.66 points [2] Sector Highlights - The technology sector was a major drag on the market, with Alibaba down nearly 5% and Tencent down over 2% [3] - Robotics stocks surged, with Yujian (02432) up 21.4% following a successful Spring Festival performance, while AI model stocks also showed strong gains [3][4] - Oil stocks rose due to escalating geopolitical tensions, with WTI crude oil prices reaching a high of 66.70 USD per barrel [6] Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that the robotics industry's advancements are crucial for its transition from experimental to practical applications, with significant growth expected from 2021 to 2025 [4] - The AI model sector is transitioning from free trials to paid subscriptions, indicating a shift towards sustainable monetization [4] Notable Stock Movements - SOTON (02498) reported a significant reduction in net losses for 2025, achieving profitability in Q4, which contributed to a 9.24% increase in stock price [8] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) rose 6.34% amid expectations of increased tanker profitability due to geopolitical tensions [9] - Stone Four Pharmaceutical Group (02005) issued a profit warning, predicting a 45%-60% decline in profits for 2025 due to various market pressures [10]

智通财经APP获悉，香港黄金交易所主席张德熙表示，过去几年金价已打好根基，现时仍处牛市初 中期，他料金价未来将稍作调整后再度上扬，今年第二、三季有望挑战每盎司6000美元水平。 他指出，上海黄金交易所参与新成立的"香港黄金中央清算系统"，有助提升交割可靠度，未来内地 与香港实现黄金市场互联互通是"指日可待"。 另外，香港黄金交易所未来将与阿里巴巴集团(09988)成员公司亚博科技合作开发国际贵金属交易 平台、结算系统以及数字商品区块链。张德熙表示，相关平台预计6个月内完成搭建，期望能接入中央 清算系统。 （责任编辑：刘畅 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Core Insights - The competition in the AI sector is intensifying, with major products like Qianwen, Yuanbao, and Doubao vying for user engagement through innovative marketing strategies [2] - Qianwen's "免单卡" (Free Order Card) initiative, backed by a 3 billion yuan subsidy, serves as a modern interpretation of the "草船借箭" (Borrowing Arrows with Straw Boats) strategy, effectively leveraging Alibaba's ecosystem for user acquisition and brand recognition [3][4] Group 1: Marketing Strategy and User Engagement - Qianwen's Free Order Card acts as a bait to attract users, resulting in over 10 million AI orders within 9 hours and 40 billion interactions in 6 days, showcasing the effectiveness of low-cost marketing [3][4] - The initiative successfully converted AI interaction into real consumer behavior by integrating with over 300,000 stores in Alibaba's ecosystem, thus enhancing user experience and engagement [4][6] - The campaign also capitalized on the festive season and social sharing, leading to over 51 million new users, with 60% coming from social media [4] Group 2: Value Creation and Ecosystem Impact - The Free Order Card not only benefits users with discounts but also democratizes access to AI technology, with significant engagement from rural areas and older demographics [5] - Local businesses experienced a surge in orders, with some stores reporting over 1,400 backlogged orders, highlighting the initiative's role in driving sales during peak seasons [5][6] - Qianwen's strategy serves as a catalyst for activating Alibaba's entire ecosystem, enhancing user activity across various business lines and validating the "AI + ecosystem" operational model [6] Group 3: Challenges and Future Considerations - Despite its success, Qianwen faced challenges related to system capacity and delivery logistics, with peak requests exceeding design limits, leading to user experience issues [7] - The initiative raises concerns about user retention, as many new users may be attracted solely by incentives, posing a challenge for long-term engagement [8] - The industry must focus on converting short-term user acquisition into lasting relationships by improving product experience and expanding AI application scenarios [8] Conclusion - Qianwen's Free Order Card exemplifies a modern marketing approach that disrupts traditional models, leveraging a 3 billion yuan subsidy to unlock significant market value and shift AI technology into everyday use [9] - The initiative has redefined competitive dynamics in the AI sector, moving the focus from technical specifications to user habit formation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong technology sector is experiencing significant downward pressure, with major stocks like Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent facing declines, while some AI and chip-related new stocks are performing well [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 20, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell over 2.5% to a new low of 5222 points, marking a five-month adjustment [2]. - Alibaba's stock dropped more than 4%, Baidu's fell over 6%, and Tencent's decreased by over 2% [2]. - In contrast, some new stocks related to AI and chips, such as Zhiyu (智谱), MINIMAX, and Lanke Technology (澜起科技), continued to rise and hit new highs [2]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index closed at 5245 points, down 2.28%, with a trading volume of 22.5 billion HKD, while the Hang Seng Index fell 0.61% to 26,544 points, with a trading volume of 91.7 billion HKD [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Concerns - Analysts note that competition in delivery and red envelope services is intense around the Spring Festival, leading to investor concerns about the return on AI investments [3]. - There is a prevailing sentiment that the technology sector will remain weak until March when companies like Tencent report earnings, potentially leading to stock buybacks and stabilization [3][4]. - Concerns are growing regarding the effectiveness of AI infrastructure investments, as costs have risen significantly compared to the previous year, while profits and revenues have not increased proportionately [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term pressures on technology stocks are expected to persist, but as stock prices reflect negative factors, a bottom may form [4]. - Potential catalysts for a rebound include favorable policies and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [4]. - Analysts anticipate that after earnings announcements, companies in the tech sector may restart buybacks, providing some support for stock prices [4].

春节假期过后，港股今日迎来马年首个交易日，恒指、恒科指数低开。截至收盘，恒指早盘收跌 0.61%，科指早盘收跌2.28%，恒指大市成交额917.55亿港元。盘面上，石油、人工智能、机器人概念股 逆势走强，影视娱乐、互联网医疗、线上零售及明星科网股走势疲弱。个股方面，智谱(02513.HK)大涨 19.09%，MINIMAX-WP(00100.HK)涨10.04%，中国石油股份(00857.HK)涨4.58%，百度(09888.HK)跌 5.67%，阿里巴巴(09988.HK)跌3.75%，哔哩哔哩(09626.HK)跌5.12%。 来源：滚动播报 ...