Core Viewpoint - The analysis highlights the expected trends and investment opportunities in the A-share market for 2026, emphasizing a shift towards profitability-driven growth amid a recovering economy and evolving global dynamics [1][28]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on solidifying foundations and comprehensive efforts for economic modernization [1][28]. - The A-share market is anticipated to experience a recovery in corporate profitability, with a projected increase in earnings growth to 8% driven by improved nominal GDP growth and narrowing PPI declines [53][52]. Group 2: Market Phases - The market is expected to be segmented into three phases influenced by U.S.-China trade agreements and U.S. midterm elections, with a potential for sustained growth in a stable external environment [3][30]. - Analysts predict a "slow bull" market pattern, with corporate profitability stabilizing and the return of investment interest from insurance and high-net-worth individuals [7][34]. Group 3: Investment Themes - Key investment themes include: - The manufacturing sector's pursuit of global pricing power, particularly in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy [3][30]. - The globalization of Chinese enterprises, opening up new market opportunities in machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries [3][30]. - Continued growth in the AI sector, with a focus on semiconductors, computing power, and AI applications [3][30]. - Recovery opportunities in domestic demand, particularly in sectors with potential for valuation elasticity [3][30]. Group 4: Sector Focus - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors with clear growth trends, such as AI, where capital expenditure is expected to expand, and cyclical industries like chemicals and renewable energy that may benefit from policy support [5][38]. - The technology sector is projected to maintain high profit growth, although the valuation gap with traditional sectors may pose challenges [40][42]. Group 5: Policy and Market Dynamics - The market is expected to transition from valuation-driven to profitability-driven dynamics, supported by fiscal policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and improving competition in traditional industries [38][40]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of capital market reforms to enhance flexibility and attract long-term investments, particularly in emerging industries [45][48].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for the A-share market in 2026, emphasizing the importance of economic work and investment strategies as China enters a critical period of its "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Outlook - A-share company profit growth is expected to show a "low first, high later" trend in 2026, influenced by the US-China trade dynamics and the upcoming US midterm elections [3][5]. - The international order's restructuring and China's industrial innovation are anticipated to support A-share performance, with a market trend of initial growth followed by stabilization [6][8]. - The nominal GDP growth in China is projected to reach 6.45% in 2026, significantly higher than in 2025, indicating a recovery in corporate earnings [21]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Sector Focus - Key investment themes include the global pricing power in manufacturing, the expansion of Chinese companies overseas, the continuation of the tech trend with AI, and the potential recovery in domestic demand [5][8][19]. - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors with clear growth trends, such as AI applications, machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy equipment [5][8][19]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern, with a focus on industries experiencing supply constraints and clear growth trends, such as AI and energy storage [11][25]. Group 3: Policy and Structural Changes - The article highlights the need for policies that support long-term market stability and the development of new industries, particularly in technology and innovation [6][17][24]. - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to improve competition in traditional industries and stimulate domestic demand, contributing to overall market recovery [15][17]. - The capital market is anticipated to transition from valuation-driven to profit-driven dynamics, with a focus on sectors that can benefit from both traditional and emerging growth drivers [15][19].

Core Insights - The capital market showed a positive trend in 2025, with active trading reflected in the significant increase in transaction volume on the Longhu list, reaching 3.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of over 40% [1][2] - The competition among brokerage firms intensified, with notable changes in the rankings of the top 100 brokerage departments, highlighting the emergence of several "dark horse" firms [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, a total of 7,029 brokerage departments appeared on the Longhu list 123,900 times, with a total transaction volume of 3.34 trillion yuan, marking a 42.6% increase year-on-year [2] - The top 100 brokerage departments accounted for 2.26 trillion yuan of the total transaction volume, representing 67.66% of the market share, indicating a strong head effect [2] Group 2: Top Brokerage Departments - The "Lhasa team" under Dongfang Caifu Securities maintained a strong performance, occupying three of the top ten positions, with the Lhasa Tuanjie Road No. 1 Securities Department leading with a transaction volume of 127.87 billion yuan [2] - New entrants to the top ten include Kaiyuan Securities' Xi'an Xidajie Securities Department, which rose from 27th place in 2024 to 3rd in 2025, and several other firms that significantly improved their rankings [2][3] Group 3: Emerging Firms and Foreign Participation - Several "dark horse" brokerage departments made significant leaps in rankings, such as Guotai Junan's Shanghai Jing'an District New Zha Road Securities Department, which rose from 559th to 14th place [3] - The presence of foreign brokerage firms is increasing, with six foreign brokerage departments making it into the top 50, including UBS and Goldman Sachs, showcasing their growing influence in the market [4] Group 4: Industry Trends - The competition in brokerage business has intensified, reflecting differences in client scale, market share, and overall strength among various firms, as well as the strategic focus on regional development by branch offices [5] - The Longhu list serves as an important indicator of market sentiment and hotspots, with sectors like general equipment, chemical products, computer software, automotive, and semiconductors attracting significant investment [6]

关于部分控股股东及其一致行动人 进行质押式回购交易 展期的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： ● 浙江华康药业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）部分控股股东及其一致行动人程新平先生、徐小荣先 生和余建明先生分别持有公司16,685,055股、15,691,337股、13,143,335股,分别占总股本的5.51%、 5.18%、4.34%。本次程新平先生、徐小荣先生和余建明先生将各自部分持有股份中的9,000,000股、 9,500,000股、7,000,000股质押给中信证券股份有限公司（以下简称"中信证券"），本次股份质押展期业 务完成后，其质押股份共计25,500,000股，占公司总股本8.41%。 一、上市公司股份质押 证券代码：605077 证券简称：华康股份 公告编号：2025-100 债券代码：111018 债券简称：华康转债 浙江华康药业股份有限公司 公司近日接到部分控股股东及其一致行动人程新平先生、徐小荣先生、余建明先生的通知，获悉上述人 员与中信证券办理了股票质押式回购 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chief A-share strategist of CITIC Securities, Qiu Xiang, predicts that the profit growth rate of A-share companies will show a trend of low-to-high from 2026 onwards, influenced by the dynamics of the China-US relationship [1] Summary by Categories Market Phases - The market is expected to be divided into three phases based on the China-US trade agreement and the US midterm elections: 1. The first phase is from now until the trade agreement is finalized, where market growth is expected to slow down 2. The second phase is from the agreement's implementation until the midterm elections, where A-shares may experience sustained growth in a stable external environment 3. The third phase follows the midterm elections, where uncertainties from external disturbances may increase, prompting investors to refocus on domestic markets [1] Investment Opportunities and Sector Allocation - Four major themes are highlighted for investment opportunities: 1. The manufacturing sector's competition for global pricing power, with a focus on industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy, which can convert market share advantages into pricing power and profit margin increases 2. The globalization of Chinese enterprises, which significantly expands market capitalization and profit growth potential, with key industries including machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, power equipment, and military industry 3. The continuation of the technology trend, particularly in AI, which is expected to further expand its commercial applications and enhance the competitive advantages of Chinese companies, focusing on sectors like semiconductors, computing power, edge hardware, and AI applications 4. The potential for unexpected recovery in domestic demand, where despite general industry conditions being average, there exists significant room for recovery and valuation elasticity in domestic demand-sensitive sectors [1]

Core Insights - The capital market showed positive trends in 2025, with active trading reflected in the turnover data of the "Long Hu Bang" (龙虎榜) trading departments, reaching 3.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 40% [1][2] - The competition among brokerage firms intensified, with significant changes in the rankings of the top 100 trading departments, highlighting the emergence of several "dark horse" departments [1][3] Trading Volume and Rankings - In 2025, a total of 7,029 brokerage departments appeared on the Long Hu Bang 123,900 times, with a total trading volume of 3.34 trillion yuan, marking a 42.6% year-on-year increase [2] - The top 100 trading departments accounted for 2.26 trillion yuan, representing 67.66% of the total trading volume, indicating a strong head effect [2] - The top ten positions saw significant representation from Oriental Fortune Securities, which held three spots, with the top position taken by the Lhasa Tuanjie Road department at 127.87 billion yuan [2] Emergence of New Players - New entrants made notable advancements, such as Kaiyuan Securities' Xi'an Xidajie department rising from 27th to 3rd place, and UBS and Goldman Sachs' Shanghai departments entering the top ten [2][3] - Several "dark horse" departments made significant leaps, including Guotai Junan's Shanghai Jing'an New Zha Road department moving from 559th to 14th, and Guosheng Securities' Ningbo Tiantong South Road department from 1014th to 48th [3] Growth of Branch Offices - The rankings of many brokerage branch offices improved significantly, showcasing their growth potential, with 22 branch offices appearing in the top 100 list [3] - Notably, Guoxin Securities' Zhejiang Internet branch, established only about five years ago, entered the top ten, while Guojin Securities' Shenzhen branch improved from 65th to 26th [3] Foreign Brokerage Participation - Six foreign brokerage departments made it into the top 50, reflecting their increasing importance in the market [4] - UBS's Shanghai Garden Shiqiao Road department and Goldman Sachs' Shanghai Pudong Century Avenue department ranked 8th and 9th, respectively, with significant improvements from the previous year [4] Market Trends and Insights - The changes in the Long Hu Bang rankings reflect the competitive landscape among brokerages, indicating differences in client scale, market share, and overall strength [5] - The trading activities of the top departments suggest a preference for sectors such as general equipment, chemical products, computer software, automotive, and semiconductors [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that CITIC Securities maintains a solid industry leadership position, with comprehensive strength leading across capital scale, business coverage, and brand influence [3][16][17] - The company leverages the strong resources of its major shareholder, CITIC Group, sharing financial licenses and benefiting from a global industrial layout and client network, creating a "finance + industry" synergy [3][17] - The management team demonstrates top-tier strategic foresight, establishing a development path that balances expansion during economic upturns and building barriers during downturns, maintaining a leading advantage amid industry cyclicality [3][17] Group 2 - The operating performance is steadily improving, with strong profitability and risk control capabilities, as CITIC Securities is the first domestic brokerage to exceed total assets of 2 trillion yuan, showcasing absolute capital strength and efficient capital operation [2][4][17] - A balanced and diversified business structure supports the company's resilience through market cycles, with most main business revenue scales ranking first in the industry, highlighting comprehensive competitive strength [2][4][17] - The company has established a "multi-engine drive" model for performance growth, effectively countering cyclical market risks and providing solid support for sustainable operational development [2][4][17] Group 3 - Key breakthroughs in core areas are evident, with significant progress in wealth management transformation, moving from traditional brokerage to a modern asset allocation platform, gradually building a global asset allocation ecosystem [4][18] - The cross-border investment banking business remains a leader, enhancing international competitiveness and service coverage in areas such as overseas equity financing and cross-border mergers and acquisitions [4][18] - The asset management business is deepening its active management transformation, optimizing asset structure, and accelerating innovative asset management initiatives [4][18] Group 4 - In the context of deepening domestic capital market reforms and tightening regulations, the "Matthew effect" in the securities industry is becoming more pronounced, with leading brokerages expected to continue capturing market share [5][19] - As an industry leader, CITIC Securities not only excels in scale and performance but also continues to make breakthroughs in high-quality development areas such as wealth management and cross-border investment banking, forming sustainable growth momentum [5][19]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the public fund fee reform has concluded, and insurance companies are expected to perform well, indicating potential investment opportunities in the spring market [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84 points, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58% [11]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.30% week-on-week [6]. Group 2: Insurance Sector - Insurance companies are anticipated to maintain high growth in performance, with short-term results expected to exceed expectations and long-term interest rate spreads likely to improve [17]. - The Ministry of Finance released a draft revision of the accounting standards, enhancing the clarity of profit sources for insurance companies and improving comparability across industries [17]. - Key stocks to watch in the insurance sector include China Ping An, China Life, and New China Life, among others [17]. Group 3: Securities Sector - The public fund fee reform is expected to save investors approximately 51 billion yuan annually, with a fee reduction of about 20% [18]. - The reform includes differentiated redemption fee structures aimed at promoting long-term investment and reducing short-term trading behaviors [19]. - The introduction of new REITs regulations is expected to enhance the market's quality and expand opportunities for securities firms [24][28]. Group 4: Valuation and Financial Analysis - China Ping An (601318.SH) has a target price of 85.17 yuan, with an estimated EPS of 8.91 yuan for 2025, reflecting a PE ratio of 7.68 [7]. - New China Life (601336.SH) has a target price of 94.21 yuan, with an estimated EPS of 14.04 yuan for 2025, indicating a PE ratio of 4.96 [7]. - The report suggests that the valuation metrics for various companies in the sector indicate potential upside, with several stocks rated as "Buy" [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the biggest expected divergence in 2026 will stem from the balance between external and internal demand, with a trend towards imposing tariffs on external demand and subsidizing internal demand, marking an important beginning this year [1][7]. Market Overview - The market is expected to experience a higher probability of upward movement after the New Year, given the relatively low funding enthusiasm at the end of last year and the prevailing sentiment of wanting to see market growth [1][8]. - The overall market sentiment is currently restrained, with many investors waiting for the right entry point, suggesting limited potential for significant market corrections in the absence of major unexpected risks [8]. Investment Strategy - The company recommends adopting a mindset focused on "earning performance money rather than expecting valuation money" for mid-term investments, favoring sectors with lower heat and concentration but increasing attention and catalysts, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, electric power equipment, and new energy [1][10]. - There is a cautious approach towards high prosperity and high heat sectors that have seen stagnant stock prices, while new industry themes like commercial aerospace are expected to continue to evolve and warrant ongoing attention [1][10]. Performance Analysis - In 2025, the median return for actively managed public funds tracked by CITIC Securities was 28.2%, ranking third over the past decade, with a significant disparity in returns between the top and bottom deciles [2]. - The overall performance of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets in 2025 can be divided into five phases, with notable fluctuations driven by external factors such as tariff impacts and AI application narratives [3][4]. Structural Market Dynamics - The significant money in the structural bull market in 2025 primarily came from the correction of expected divergences and performance growth, particularly in the context of external and internal demand dynamics [4]. - The report highlights that the market's perception of external demand has shifted from optimism to caution, with geopolitical factors influencing expectations throughout the year [7]. Future Outlook - The anticipated structural adjustments in trade policies, including increased tariffs and stricter export controls, indicate a shift in China's approach to external trade, aiming to balance external and internal demand [7]. - The report emphasizes that the market may struggle to quickly price in these significant structural changes, which could serve as both a source of expected divergence and potential performance growth [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a structural bull market driven by a significant re-evaluation of China's technological capabilities and the complexities of US-China relations, alongside resilient external demand and an explosion in AI inference demand [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance and Expectations - In 2025, the median return of actively managed public funds is projected to be 28.2%, ranking third in the past decade and sixth in the last twenty years [1][12] - The overall market performance can be divided into five phases, with the total return of the CSI All A Shares Index at 27.7% and the Hang Seng Tech Index at 23.4% for the year [2][13] - The first phase shows a brief market excitement before the Spring Festival, while the second phase sees a significant rally in the Hang Seng Tech Index due to a shift in narrative regarding China's autonomous technology [2][13] Group 2: Structural Bull Market Dynamics - The "big money" in the structural bull market comes from substantial expected differences and performance growth, primarily driven by the correction of pessimistic expectations regarding external demand and the AI industry's evolution [3][14] - The market's perception of external demand shifted from pessimism to optimism throughout the year, culminating in a consensus on external demand exposure by year-end [3][14] - The AI industry's demand surge has filled gaps during transitional phases, leading to significant valuation recoveries for key companies [4][14] Group 3: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - Incremental liquidity is viewed as a result of the expected difference and performance realization, rather than a primary driver of market growth [5][15] - The net inflow of ETFs was 230.6 billion yuan for the year, indicating that liquidity does not directly correlate with market index increases [5][15] - The market is not lacking in funds but rather in investable assets and imaginative space [5][15] Group 4: Future Expectations and Strategies - The largest expected difference for 2026 will stem from balancing external and internal demand, with a trend towards taxing external trade and subsidizing domestic demand [6][16] - The market sentiment at the end of 2025 was relatively restrained, suggesting a higher probability of upward market movement in early 2026 [7][17] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with lower heat and concentration but increasing attention and catalysts, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, and renewable energy [9][19]