中信证券研究发文表示，随着中国制造业在全球定价权和经济利润份额的不断提升，资产内在价值亦不 断提升，最终会带来持续的人民币升值。中信证券研究部宏观组预测2026年人民币对美元有望升值到 6.8。为了避免人民币过早、过快单边升值对出口导向型制造业的损伤，超预期的货币宽松是必要的。 超预期的货币宽松可能会带动实际利率下行，并在一定程度上撬动内需（当然这需要财政的配合），而 内需的系统性提振是2026年市场整体打破震荡僵局再上一个台阶的必要条件。在此之前，预计震荡和结 构性机会的轮动是A股的常态，我们依然建议在配置上寻找全球有敞口，且利润率有提升逻辑的方向。 1）资源与传统制造业领域，依旧看好中国在全球有份额优势的行业对应的龙头企业，讲出"供应在内反 内卷，需求在外出利润"的故事，不断提升在全球的定价权，重点关注的行业包括有色、化工和新能源 等。2）企业出海依旧是打开利润和市值空间的重要方式，A股从本国敞口的新兴市场定位向全球敞口 的成熟市场定位过渡也依旧是时代特征，过程中不可避免的会出现与海外风险资产和经济环境共振频率 增加的问题，这是必经之路，重点关注的行业包括工程机械、创新药、电力设备、游戏和军工等。3） 站 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that before the emergence of unexpected changes in domestic demand, market fluctuations and structural opportunities are the norm, with a reassessment of global pricing power in resources and traditional manufacturing being an undervalued direction [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since the "9.24 market" last year, the overall elevation of market levels has been accompanied by a systematic increase in financing scale, totaling a net increase of 1.11 trillion yuan, significantly exceeding the total issuance scale of public and private bullish products since October last year [1] - In the two market rallies, major broad-based and cyclical industries have completed most of their gains, while excluding the significant rise phases of financing, the market has mostly been in a sideways trend [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - During the sideways period, sectors that achieved effective growth include quantitatively driven micro-accounts, bank-driven insurance, price-driven non-ferrous metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals driven by pipeline exports [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current market fluctuation may be a normal state before the emergence of unexpected changes in fundamentals, with adjustments in the bond market posing challenges to stock-bond balanced strategies, which may require higher control over position volatility and indirectly affect stock allocation strategies [1] - Potential appreciation pressure on the renminbi may lead to unexpected monetary easing, which could be a source of unexpected changes and break the current fluctuation pattern; until then, the focus should remain on the reassessment of pricing power in resources/traditional manufacturing and corporate overseas expansion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market is experiencing volatility due to a policy vacuum, with expectations for a positive policy direction emerging from upcoming meetings in December [1][2]. Macro and Policy - Economic fundamentals have shown relative weakness in the second half of the year, yet risk assets have outperformed safe-haven assets, indicating that asset pricing is driven more by long-term expectations than short-term economic performance [2]. - Optimism regarding the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the anticipated policy strength for 2026 is fueling this positive outlook [2]. - The December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are critical for setting the policy tone for 2026 and could serve as a turning point for major asset classes [2]. Overseas Factors - The U.S. labor market remains under pressure, necessitating potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December, although the long-term impact of the labor market on monetary policy is diminishing [3]. - China's international competitiveness in exports has improved, and the country has mitigated some negative impacts from tariffs through re-export trade, suggesting a better-than-expected foreign trade outlook [3]. Asset Allocation Strategy - Following the December meetings, major assets are expected to transition from a state of ambiguity to clearer trends, marking a pivotal moment for asset allocation [4]. - Bond yields are reasonable but lack attractiveness, while stock market valuations have slightly declined, maintaining a high-risk appetite in the market [4]. - There is optimism regarding fiscal policy strength, which may enhance the attractiveness of equity assets [4]. - In terms of bond investments, a focus on medium- to short-term bonds is recommended due to a generally accommodative monetary policy, despite market sentiment being fragile [4]. - For commodities, attention should be given to non-ferrous metals, which are expected to show a clear contraction trend in supply [4].

会上，中国证券业协会第八届会长朱健和协会监事长王晟分别作为第八届理事会代表发言。 中国证券业协会第八届负责人名单公布（央广网记者 樊瑞 摄） 中国证监会党委书记、主席吴清以《加快打造一流投资银行和投资机构更好助推资本市场高质量发展》为题发言。吴清指出，中国证券业协会的新一届会长 将由行业代表担任，这对协会制度提出新的要求，无论是专职还是兼职，都要和舟共济，不断增强全体会员的认同感、向心力和参与度，切实提升共建、共 治、共享质效。 此次会员大会选举出中国证券业协会第八届负责人。中国证券业协会吴运浩当选协会常务理事、执行副会长，来自中国证券业协会的徐刚、张冀华、汪兆军 当选协会常务理事、专职副会长。 国泰海通证券董事长朱健当选中国证券业协会第八届理事会会长职务，另外还有九位行业人士当选协会常务理事、兼职副会长，分别是：中信建投证券刘 成、广发证券林传辉、申万宏源证券刘健、华泰证券周易、中信证券邹迎光、招商证券霍达、国信证券张纳沙、益盟股份曾山和来自中金公司的陈亮。 央广网北京12月6日消息（记者 樊瑞）12月6日下午，中国证券业协会第八次会员大会在北京举行。 ...

Core Points - The eighth member conference of the China Securities Association was held on December 6, where the new leadership was announced [1] - Zhu Jian from Guotai Junan Securities was appointed as the Executive Director and President [1] - Wu Yunhao from the China Securities Association was appointed as the Executive Director and Vice President [1] Group 1 - The new leadership includes several prominent figures from major securities firms, such as Liu Cheng from CITIC Securities and Lin Chuanhui from GF Securities, who were appointed as Executive Directors and Vice Presidents [1] - Other notable appointments include Liu Jian from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, Zhou Yi from Huatai Securities, Zou Yingguang from CITIC Securities, Huo Da from China Merchants Securities, Zhang Nashan from Guosen Securities, Zeng Shan from Yimeng Co., and Chen Liang from China International Capital Corporation [1] - Supervisory roles were filled by Wang Sheng from Galaxy Securities as Chairman and Su Junliang from Industrial Securities as Vice Chairman [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing, emphasized the importance of leveraging the strong and professional research capabilities of securities firms to effectively narrate the story of the Chinese stock market [1][2]. Group 1 - Securities companies possess strong and professional research capabilities [1][2] - The role of chief economists and industry research teams is crucial in promoting the narrative of the Chinese stock market [1][2]

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，在流动性改善、地缘扰动、AI泡沫短期无虞三重因素下，亚洲股市更需聚焦基本面线索变化带来的结构性配置 机会。美联储12月降息预期反转缓解亚洲市场宏观压力，而全球GPR指数高位运行下中日对峙、俄乌冲突等构成阶段性扰动，AI领域现金流支撑与供应链 瓶颈使极端泡沫叙事难现。具体市场核心观点如下。1)A股：需基本面超预期突破，配置上建议聚焦资源/传统制造业定价权重估与企业出海主线，关注低 拥挤品种与红利标的。2)港股：受益内外部催化有望实现戴维斯双击，建议侧重科技、医疗、资源品等五大方向。 中信证券主要观点如下： 亚洲流动性风险趋缓，地缘风险高位扰动，AI泡沫短期难破。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯的鸽派表态与FOMC鸽派票委占优结构形成关键支撑，截至12月1日CME Fed Watch数据显示12月降息概率升至87%，叠加关键通胀 数据披露推迟与政策门槛不对称的强化作用，预计12月"close call"降息25bps为基准情景，亚洲市场流动性压力实质性消退，资金风险偏好有所回暖;2025 年1-10月全球GPR指数月均值149显著高于往年，中日关系对峙、俄乌冲突、美委局势构成核心风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the inventory turning point has emerged since mid-November, combined with rising expectations for interest rate cuts and domestic production reductions, leading to a forecast that LME copper prices may accelerate towards $12,000 per ton by the end of the year [1] Group 1: Inventory and Price Forecast - The inventory turning point will support the acceleration of copper prices towards $12,000 per ton by year-end [1] - Current high inventory levels are primarily influenced by COMEX hoarding, while LME and domestic inventories are not excessively high [1] - The expected decline in domestic inventory consumption days to below the five-year average (<10 days) will further support price increases during the year-end period [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The combination of "U.S. copper hoarding" and "domestic production cuts" is expected to significantly widen the supply gap by 60% to 450,000 tons in 2026 [2] - Uncertainty in tariff policies and the rapid development of AI are driving continued U.S. copper hoarding, with a projected increase in copper demand from infrastructure and energy sectors [2] - Domestic production cuts are anticipated to significantly reduce overall production growth next year, despite an increase in recycled copper supply [3] Group 3: Long-term Price Outlook - The forecasted price of $12,000 per ton is seen as both a safety net for long-term supply and a potential new upward elastic point [4] - The increase in exploration costs and investment intensity for new projects supports the upward price target of $12,000 per ton [4] - Historical trends in global apparent inventory changes suggest a strong potential for price increases in the coming year, similar to past market behaviors [4]

中信证券华南公司在本案中被列为37名被告之一。原告指控中信证券华南公司作为东旭光电2017年非公开发行股票的主承销商，违反了2014年修订的《中 华人民共和国证券法》相关规定，未能勤勉尽责，因此应对投资者的损失承担连带赔偿责任。 作者：胡群 封图：图虫创意 12月4日，中信证券（600030.SH）董事会发布公告，披露其子公司中信证券华南股份有限公司涉及东旭光电科技股份有限公司证券虚假陈述责任纠纷诉 讼的最新进展。河北省高级人民法院已作出终审裁定，驳回包括中信证券华南公司在内的复议申请，确定该案适用普通代表人诉讼程序审理。 目前，案件原告为11名投资者，合计诉讼请求金额为人民币1,828,167.34元。公告指出，该案源于中信证券收购广州证券（华南公司前身）之前，后者作 为东旭光电2017年非公开发行股票主承销商的相关项目。中信证券在公告中表示，收购时已充分考虑相关潜在损失，预计本案对公司本期及期后利润无重 大影响。此案因适用代表人诉讼程序以及涉及头部券商子公司而受到市场关注。 本次诉讼源于已退市公司东旭光电的信息披露违法违规行为。根据公告引述的起诉状内容，东旭光电涉嫌在2015年至2022年年度报告中存在虚 ...

中信证券研报称，11月中旬以来库存拐点已现，叠加降息预期和国内减产发酵，年内LME铜价有望加速迈向12000美元/吨。展望明年，"美铜囤货"与"国 内减产"的双重叙事有望加速共振，供给缺口有望拉阔60%，预计12000美元将成为铜价的崭新起点。全面推荐铜板块配置。 近期铜价暴涨。伦敦铜期货价格周五（12月5日）再涨2%，报收11665美元/吨。国内沪铜主力合约周五盘中直奔93000元关口。 ...