Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities reports that Kelun-Biotech's core product, Sacituzumab Govitecan, has received MNC recognition and global development capabilities, enhancing its potential in combination with Merck's Keytruda for ADC+IO applications. The accelerated global development process and imminent domestic commercialization lead to a target price of HKD 592, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Product Development - Kelun-Biotech announced that its core product TROP2-ADC, Sacituzumab Govitecan, in combination with Pembrolizumab, achieved the primary endpoint in a Phase III clinical trial for PD-L1 positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) [1] - This trial marks the first positive Phase III study for ADC combined with immune checkpoint inhibitors in the first-line NSCLC setting globally, confirming the treatment potential of Sacituzumab Govitecan [1] Group 2: Pipeline and Market Potential - The positive trial results further validate the combined treatment potential of Sacituzumab Govitecan, alongside its three approved indications and multiple ongoing clinical trials, indicating a continuous realization of pipeline value [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities reports that Kelun-Biotech (06990) has received MNC recognition for its core product, sac-TMT/SKB264/MK-2870, and is accelerating its global development capabilities, leading to a target price of HKD 592 and a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Product Development - The core product, TROP2ADC sac-TMT/SKB264/MK-2870, has achieved the primary endpoint in a Phase III clinical study for first-line treatment of PD-L1 positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in combination with pembrolizumab [1] - This study marks the first positive Phase III result for an ADC combined with immune checkpoint inhibitors in the first-line NSCLC setting globally, confirming the treatment potential of sac-TMT/SKB264/MK-2870 [1] Group 2: Market Potential - The product has already received approval for three indications and has multiple ongoing clinical trials, indicating a continuous realization of pipeline value [1] - The combination of sac-TMT/SKB264/MK-2870 with Merck's Keytruda (pembrolizumab) further explores the potential of ADC + IO combination therapies [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities reports a target price of $206 per ADR and HKD 201 per share for Alibaba, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on a segmented valuation approach for FY2027 [1] Segment Summaries - **E-commerce Business Valuation**: Alibaba's e-commerce business is assigned a valuation of 10x P/EBITA for FY2027, with instant retail receiving a valuation of 0 [1] - **Cloud Computing Valuation**: The cloud computing segment is valued at 5x PS, indicating strong performance that exceeds market expectations [1] - **International E-commerce Valuation**: The international e-commerce business is assigned a valuation of 1x PS [1] - **Financial Performance**: The company’s FY2026 Q2 CMR revenue growth remains at 10%, with the Taotian Group achieving single-digit growth in EBITA after excluding flash purchase losses [1] - **Flash Purchase Business**: The flash purchase segment is transitioning from scale expansion to efficiency optimization, with expected losses aligning with forecasts [1] - **AI Revenue Growth**: In FY2026 Q2, capital expenditure reached 31.5 billion, with cloud revenue growing by 34%, and AI revenue showing a three-digit year-on-year increase, accounting for over 20% of total revenue [1] - **Future Outlook for Cloud Business**: Alibaba Cloud is expected to continue its "one cloud, multiple chips" strategy to meet strong AI customer demand, with revenue growth in the cloud business anticipated to accelerate [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities has issued a report valuing Alibaba (09988, BABA.US) with a target price of $206 per ADR and HKD 201 per share for its FY2027, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on a segmented valuation approach [1] Segment Summaries - **E-commerce Business Valuation**: Alibaba's e-commerce business is assigned a 10x P/EBITA valuation for FY2027, while instant retail is valued at 0, and international e-commerce at 1x PS [1] - **Cloud Computing Performance**: The cloud computing segment is valued at 5x PS, with revenue growth exceeding market expectations, indicating a strong performance [1] - **Financial Metrics**: The report suggests a FY2027 Non-GAAP PE of 24x for the group, reflecting positive financial outlooks [1] - **Consumer Market Revenue (CMR)**: For FY2026 Q2, CMR revenue growth remains at 10%, with the Taotian Group achieving single-digit growth in EBITA after excluding flash purchase losses [1] - **Flash Purchase Business**: The flash purchase segment is transitioning from scale expansion to efficiency optimization, with expected losses aligning with forecasts, while benefiting from synergies with e-commerce [1] - **AI Revenue Growth**: In FY2026 Q2, capital expenditure reached 31.5 billion, with cloud revenue growing by 34%, surpassing market expectations, and AI revenue showing triple-digit year-on-year growth, accounting for over 20% of total revenue [1] - **Future Cloud Strategy**: Alibaba Cloud will continue to implement a "one cloud, multiple chips" strategy to meet strong AI customer demand, with expectations of accelerated revenue growth in the cloud business [1]

Core Insights - Baoyi Pharmaceutical has passed the main board listing hearing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan acting as joint sponsors [1] - The company's core product, SJ02 (Shengnuowa®), is a long-acting recombinant human follicle-stimulating hormone carboxy-terminal peptide fusion protein for assisted reproduction, which received NDA approval from the National Medical Products Administration in August 2025 [1] - Two other core products, KJ103 (an innovative recombinant immunoglobulin G (IgG) degrading enzyme in Phase III development) and KJ017 (a recombinant hyaluronidase in NDA stage), are in late-stage trials or NDA registration in China [1] - The company's strategy focuses on four key areas: large-volume subcutaneous delivery, antibody-mediated autoimmune diseases, assisted reproduction, and recombinant biopharmaceuticals [1] - According to Frost & Sullivan, the total clinical addressable market size for the company's four strategic therapeutic areas in China is expected to reach approximately RMB 50 billion by 2033 [1]

Core Viewpoint - After the double festival, supply and demand remain stable, with milk prices entering a bottoming phase, and both contract and spot prices showing month-on-month stability. The demand for dairy products continues to face pressure, with ambient temperature products performing weaker than low-temperature ones. However, deep processing and overseas markets are experiencing rapid growth from a low base, indicating a promising future [1] Dairy Industry - Milk prices are stabilizing after the holiday season, indicating a bottoming phase [1] - Demand for dairy products is under pressure, particularly for ambient temperature products compared to low-temperature ones [1] - Deep processing and overseas markets are growing rapidly from a low base, suggesting a bright outlook for the future [1] Beef Industry - In Q3, beef prices have shown high volatility, with a cumulative reduction in stock expected to exceed 10% since the beginning of 2024 [1] - By 2026, there is anticipated downward pressure on beef supply, referencing the previous cycle's reduction and price recovery rhythm [1] - The current cycle for live cattle prices is expected to have upward potential, with a positive outlook for the beef and raw milk cycle resonance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that live cattle prices have room for growth, while milk prices remain at historically low levels. The ongoing reduction in dairy cow inventory and the gradual impact of the reduction in beef breeding cows are expected to improve the performance of upstream breeding companies. The outlook for raw milk and beef cycles is positive, suggesting a potential upward trend in prices and profitability for the industry [1]. Summary by Category Raw Milk - After the double festival, supply and demand are relatively stable, with milk prices entering a bottoming phase. The overall supply-demand situation has remained stable since Q3, continuing in an oversupply state, with contract prices remaining flat [2]. - The demand for dairy products is under pressure, with a significant decline in sales since Q3 2025, exceeding double digits. The performance of ambient products is notably weaker than that of chilled products. Domestic brands hold only 4% of the market share in deep processing, indicating substantial room for domestic replacement [2]. Beef Cattle - Live cattle prices are experiencing short-term fluctuations, with a cumulative reduction in inventory exceeding 10% since 2024. Attention is drawn to changes in supply by 2026 [3]. - The prices of live cattle and cull cows have been fluctuating at high levels since Q3 2025, with cull cow prices improving, which will enhance profit margins. However, profits are still significantly below the peak of the previous cycle [3]. Future Outlook - Domestic liquid milk demand remains under pressure, but there is potential for growth in deep processing and export markets. The supply-side reduction in inventory is expected to slow down, with expectations for slight acceleration in inventory reduction during the off-season [4]. - The reduction of breeding cows may exceed 10% since 2024, leading to a shortage in domestic cattle supply, which is a key driver for the current rise in beef prices. The previous cycle saw an 11% decline in inventory, resulting in a price increase of over 60% for fattening cattle. The current increase in live cattle prices is still below 20%, indicating further potential for price growth [4].

Core Viewpoint - Significant real estate policy announcements lead to noticeable improvements in housing sales area approximately 4-10 months later, while the turning point for new construction area typically manifests 8-20 months post-policy [1] Group 1: Policy Impact on Housing Market - Housing sales area shows clear improvement following major real estate policy releases [1] - New construction area experiences a lag in response to policy changes, with effects seen later than housing sales [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Capital markets tend to react ahead of time to policy changes, often leading to early price movements [1] - The building materials sector exhibits high sensitivity to real estate policies, frequently initiating upward trends in stock prices after favorable policy announcements [1] Group 3: Performance Metrics - Building materials stocks significantly outperform the Shanghai Composite Index following key positive policy announcements, demonstrating clear excess returns [1] - The industry maintains a "stronger than market" rating based on these observations [1]

Core Viewpoint - After the Double Festival, supply and demand remain stable, with milk prices entering a bottoming phase, and both contract and spot prices showing stable month-on-month changes. The demand for dairy products continues to face pressure, with ambient products performing weaker than chilled ones. However, deep processing and overseas expansion are growing rapidly from a low base, indicating a promising future [1] Group 1: Dairy Industry - Milk prices are stabilizing after the holiday season, indicating a bottoming phase [1] - Demand for dairy products is under pressure, particularly in ambient segments compared to chilled segments [1] - Deep processing and overseas markets are experiencing rapid growth from a low base, suggesting a bright outlook for the future [1] Group 2: Beef Industry - In Q3, beef cattle prices have shown high volatility, with a cumulative reduction in stock expected to exceed 10% since the beginning of 2024 [1] - By 2026, there is anticipated downward pressure on the supply side of beef cattle, referencing the previous cycle's reduction and price recovery patterns [1] - The current cycle for live cattle prices is expected to have upward potential, with a positive outlook for the synergy between beef cattle and raw milk cycles [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that overseas lithium mine production remained stable in Q3 2025, reflecting a decrease in production enthusiasm among overseas mining companies due to weak lithium prices in the first three quarters of the year [1] Group 1: Lithium Market Dynamics - Despite a recovery in lithium prices in Q3 2025, feedback from overseas mining companies has been slow [1] - South American salt lake lithium extraction companies showed significant operational improvement in Q3 2025 and maintain an optimistic outlook for Q4 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The strong demand for energy storage batteries is expected to continue driving the lithium industry, leading to a potential upward trend in lithium prices [1] - The price forecast for lithium has been adjusted, with the upper limit now set at 120,000 yuan per ton, suggesting a focus on low-cost stocks and companies with expected resource production increases during the price rebound [1]