消息面上，保利置业公告披露，已知悉最近公司股份价格及成交量上升，其就相关情况下对有关公司信 息进行查询后，确认并没有知悉导致价格及成交量波动的任何原因，或任何必须公布以避免本公司证券 出现虚假市场的资料。同时，建议股东及潜在投资者不要依赖有关的市场传言。 保利置业集团(00119)上周五放量飙升19%，今日早盘跌超9%，截至发稿，跌8.67%，报1.79港元，成交 额4918.69万港元。 据悉，此前市场有传闻称，保利发展成为保利集团一级子公司，或为与保利置业整合前奏。保利发展相 关人士向媒体表示，公司股权进行调整，主要是响应对法人层级压减相关要求，其他架构、管理安排等 没有变化，保利发展一直是保利集团的主要子公司，并由集团直接管理。 ...

Group 1 - Hainan Province has introduced a new regulation allowing homebuyers to apply for market trading or full ownership of affordable housing after five years of holding the property [1] - The new regulation stipulates that the nature of the affordable housing will change to market commodity housing upon successful application for full ownership [1] Group 2 - China Overseas Development reported a contract property sales amount of approximately 20.173 billion yuan in September, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [2] - The corresponding sales area for China Overseas Development in September was approximately 914,000 square meters [2] Group 3 - Poly Developments disclosed a signed contract amount of 20.531 billion yuan in September, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.84% [3] - The signed area for Poly Developments in September was 1.119 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decrease of 10.46% [3] Group 4 - Sunac China reported a contract sales amount of approximately 1.29 billion yuan in September, with a sales area of about 79,000 square meters [4] - The average contract sales price for Sunac China was approximately 16,300 yuan per square meter [4] Group 5 - According to the China Index Academy, the top 50 property service companies expanded their third-party market area to a total of 51.05 million square meters as of September 2025 [5] - The average expansion area for these companies was 1.02 million square meters, with the top two companies being Country Garden Services and Shimao Services, expanding by 4.88 million square meters and 4.52 million square meters respectively [5]

消息面上，保利置业公告披露，已知悉最近公司股份价格及成交量上升，其就相关情况下对有关公司信 息进行查询后，确认并没有知悉导致价格及成交量波动的任何原因，或任何必须公布以避免本公司证券 出现虚假市场的资料。同时，建议股东及潜在投资者不要依赖有关的市场传言。 据悉，此前市场有传闻称，保利发展（600048）成为保利集团一级子公司，或为与保利置业整合前奏。 保利发展相关人士向媒体表示，公司股权进行调整，主要是响应对法人层级压减相关要求，其他架构、 管理安排等没有变化，保利发展一直是保利集团的主要子公司，并由集团直接管理。 保利置业集团(00119)上周五放量飙升19%，今日早盘跌超9%，截至发稿，跌8.67%，报1.79港元，成交 额4918.69万港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook amidst current market conditions [9]. Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to stabilize and recover, driven by policy support and a focus on internal demand as a core driver [14]. - The report highlights the defensive characteristics of quality state-owned developers during market disruptions, particularly in response to tariff impacts [15]. - Commercial real estate is identified as having strong recovery potential, with specific companies like New Town Holdings and China Resources Mixc showing significant alpha during market sentiment recovery [16][17]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share real estate sector experienced a decline of 0.82%, underperforming the broader market by 0.30 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 sectors [21]. - The Hong Kong real estate sector outperformed the market with a gain of 1.25%, exceeding the Hang Seng Index by 4.39 percentage points, ranking 4th among 12 sectors [36]. Credit Market - The issuance of real estate credit bonds totaled 940 million yuan this week, with a net financing amount of 939 million yuan. Cumulative issuance reached 337.01 billion yuan, with a net financing deficit of 38.57 billion yuan year-on-year [20][42]. Housing Market - New housing transaction volumes decreased by 11.69% year-on-year, while second-hand housing transactions increased by 4.33% year-on-year, indicating a mixed recovery in the housing market [6]. Land Market - The supply and transaction area of land in 100 cities increased by 7.07% and 18.60% respectively, with a rise in premium rates by 4.83% [5]. REITs Market - The REITs index saw a slight decline of 0.31%, with the property-type REITs index down by 0.51% and the franchise-type REITs index down by 0.07% [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][10]. Core Insights - The real estate sector continues to face a sluggish fundamental environment, with performance under pressure in the short term. However, there are signs of potential recovery in the future, albeit at a slow pace [4][2]. - The report anticipates that the performance of the real estate sector will remain under pressure in Q3 2025 due to declining sales and low profit margins, but a gradual recovery is expected in 2025-2026 [4][2]. - The government is emphasizing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including urban renewal initiatives and easing purchase restrictions in major cities [4][2]. Summary by Sections Performance Expectations - The report predicts that the performance of the real estate sector will continue to be challenged in Q3 2025, primarily due to a decline in sales since 2021 and low profit margins driven by previous price cuts [4][2]. - Sales data shows that the top 50 real estate companies experienced a cumulative sales area decline of 25% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025, with significant monthly declines in July to September [4][2]. Company Performance Forecast - The report categorizes major companies based on their expected net profit growth for Q1-Q3 2025: - Companies with growth >+15%: Binjiang Group - Companies with growth between 0% and +15%: China Merchants Jinling - Companies with growth between -15% and 0%: China Merchants Shekou - Companies with growth between -30% and -15%: Jianfa Co., New Town Holdings - Companies with growth <=-30%: Poly Developments, Huafa Group [7][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on new opportunities in the real estate sector, particularly in "good housing" policies and the revaluation of commercial real estate. Specific companies are highlighted for investment: - Good housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Co. - Commercial real estate and undervalued companies: New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, Huafa Group [4][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the current real estate policies are under pressure from the fundamental market conditions, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the measures taken in 2008 and 2014 [4] - Real estate is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the week covering the National Day holiday, new housing transaction volume in 30 cities was 835,000 square meters, down 55.3% week-on-week and 53.4% year-on-year [11] - The decline in new housing transactions is attributed to a combination of last year's high base and the current market's sluggishness [11][12] - The report anticipates continued pressure on year-on-year data for the fourth quarter due to elevated bases from the previous year [11] Secondary Housing Transactions - In the same week, secondary housing transactions in 14 sample cities totaled 843,000 square meters, reflecting a 27.9% decrease week-on-week and a 47.9% decrease year-on-year [21] - Year-to-date, secondary housing transactions have reached 80.2 million square meters, showing a 16.1% increase compared to the previous year [21] Market Performance - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.30 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 Shenwan primary industries [32] - The report identifies a total of 64 stocks that increased in value during the week, while 43 stocks decreased [32] Credit Bond Issuance - During the week, two credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 940 million yuan, a decrease of 11.28 billion yuan from the previous week [3]

2025 年 10 月 12 日 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 册 寂寞诗 顾铮 A0230125070004 quzhenq@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 (8621)23297818× quzheng@swsresearch.com 住建部明确"好房子"五项工作，高质量 地开展好城市更新 ―地产及物管行业周报（2025/10/04-2025/10/10） 地产行业数据：一二手房成交跌幅扩大，成交推盘比回升。上周(10.4-10.10)34 个重点 城市新房合计成交 98 万平米，环比-61.3%，其中，一二线环比-63.1%，三四线环比- 18.7%。10 月(10.1-10.10)34 城一手房成交同比-33.5%，较 9 月同期环比-56%。其 中，一二线同比-32.2%，三四线同比-45.3%，分别较 9 月同期环比-56.6%和-48.8%。 上周 13 城二手房合计成交 48.7 万平米，环比-32%; 10 月累计成交同比-18.8%, 较 9 月同期环比-62.9%。库存方面，上周 15 城合计推盘 20 万平 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][27]. Core Insights - The "Good House" policy is expected to create new pathways for growth, leading to a rebound in core cities and introducing new products, pricing, and business models [2][27]. - The report highlights a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 61.3% week-on-week [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality urban renewal and effective city governance as outlined by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development [2][27]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 980,000 square meters, down 61.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 63.1% decline [2][3]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in October are down 33.5% compared to the same period last year [2][5]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities stands at 90.27 million square meters, with a slight decrease of 0.2% [2][19]. Policy and News Tracking - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has outlined five key areas for the "Good House" initiative, focusing on standards, design, materials, construction, and operation [2][27]. - Local policies include Guangzhou's measures to optimize land use and Longchun's reduction of down payment ratios for housing loans [2][29]. Company Dynamics - Poly Developments reported a 25.1% decrease in sales volume for the first nine months of the year, totaling 10.104 million square meters [2][33]. - New City Holdings issued offshore bonds worth $160 million at a rate of 11.9% [2][33]. Sector Performance Review - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 0.82%, underperforming the broader market, which saw the CSI 300 Index decline by 0.51% [2][38]. - The report identifies top-performing real estate stocks, including Hefei Urban Construction and Zhongrun Resources, while noting significant declines in others like Shenzhen Deep Housing [2][40].

Core Insights - The Poly Linjiang Avenue project in Guangzhou is set to open its sales office at the end of this month, marking a significant moment in the real estate market and positioning it as a potential trendsetter for the industry [1][25] - The project, acquired for 11.75 billion yuan, is considered the best land parcel in Guangzhou's history of land auctions, attracting significant interest from wealthy buyers [3][4] - The project is unique in its location and development conditions, with no comparable projects in Guangzhou, making it a highly anticipated offering in the luxury real estate market [4][10] Project Significance - The Linjiang Avenue project is viewed as a landmark for Guangzhou, representing the highest standards of urban development and serving as a reference point for other luxury properties [7][8] - It is positioned at the heart of Guangzhou's CBD, surrounded by top-tier urban resources and industry clusters, enhancing its appeal as a prestigious address [11][12] - The project is expected to influence the entire real estate market in Guangzhou, as it is the first major project to emerge in years that could reshape market dynamics [9][10] Development Features - The project boasts exceptional design and planning, with a team of six renowned designers working on its development, ensuring it meets the highest architectural standards [19][21] - It features a unique layout that maximizes views of the Pearl River, with a focus on luxury living and community amenities [19][23] - The project is strategically located to leverage the economic and cultural vibrancy of the surrounding areas, including the Zhujiang New Town and Pazhou, which are key economic hubs [14][16] Market Context - The anticipation surrounding the project reflects a broader trend in Guangzhou's luxury real estate market, where high-net-worth individuals are increasingly seeking exclusive properties [3][4] - The upcoming opening of the project coincides with significant events in Guangzhou, such as the 15th National Games, further elevating its profile [25] - The Linjiang Avenue project is seen as a pivotal moment for Poly Development Group, reinforcing its status as a leading player in China's real estate market [4][12]

Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with an increase in the number of cities experiencing rising new home prices, indicating a warming market [1][2] - The industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, requiring a shift from a developer-centric model to a customer-centric approach, focusing on high-quality housing supply and innovative operational models [2][12] - The demand for "good houses" is strong, driven by genuine improvement needs, but supply has not kept pace, leading to market differentiation [5][6] Market Trends - In August 2025, the number of cities with rising new home prices increased to 9, up from 6 in July, while first-tier cities saw a slight price decline of 0.1% [1] - Second-tier cities experienced a 0.3% decline, and third-tier cities saw a 0.4% decline, indicating varying levels of market pressure across different city tiers [1] - The adjustment period for real estate has lasted four years, with some structural positive changes emerging in specific regions and housing types [1][2] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The concept of "market stabilization" involves both phase-based and structural recovery, with quality properties in prime locations showing positive growth [3][4] - The reasonable range for the price-to-income ratio internationally is 2-6 times, while first-tier cities in China have seen ratios as high as 40 times, indicating significant room for adjustment [4] - The demand for quality housing is evident, with a notable portion of buyers looking to upgrade their living conditions, particularly in desirable areas [6][12] Future Outlook - The future of the real estate market will depend on macroeconomic improvements and the return of key indicators to reasonable ranges, with opportunities concentrated in high-quality housing and innovative operational models [2][12] - The integration of AI and remote working trends will reshape housing needs, requiring developers to adapt designs and community features to accommodate new living and working arrangements [8][9] - The long-term transformation of the industry is expected to lead to healthier market conditions, with a focus on high-quality development and reduced reliance on traditional growth models [15][16] Company Strategies - Real estate companies must pivot from high turnover to meticulous product development, emphasizing consumer needs and preferences [12][17] - Successful companies in the future will likely be those that maintain financial stability, focus on core competencies, and adapt to emerging trends such as AI and remote work [13][15] - The shift towards non-traditional real estate businesses can be successful if companies remain focused and innovative, creating unique offerings that are difficult to replicate [18]