11 月中国乘用车批发销量达 299.2 万辆，前 11 个月汽车以旧 换新超 1120 万辆 [Table_Industry] 汽车周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 7 日 2 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Tabl 行业周报e_ReportType] | [Table_StockAndRank] 汽车 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 赵启政 汽车行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030004 邮箱：zhaoqizheng@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 11 月中国乘用车批发销量达 299.2 万辆，前 11 个月汽车以旧换新超 1120 万辆 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 7 日 投资要点： | 图 1：本周汽车板块涨 1.38%，涨跌幅位居 A 股申万一级行业第 10 位 4 | | --- | | 图 2：A 股汽车板块本年度涨跌幅申万一级行业排名第 11 位 4 | | 图 3：乘用车板块表现 4 | | 图 4：商用车板块表现 5 | | 图 5：汽车 ...

Core Viewpoint - The proposal by former President Trump to terminate strict fuel economy standards set by the Biden administration poses a significant challenge to Europe's aggressive policies on banning fuel vehicles, highlighting a shift in the automotive industry's dynamics towards a more sustainable and diversified future led by China's oil-electric hybrid strategy [1][9]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Impacts - Trump's proposal aims to reduce the average cost of purchasing new cars by $1,000, potentially saving Americans $109 billion over five years [3]. - The new fuel efficiency standard proposed by Trump's administration requires vehicles to achieve approximately 34 miles per gallon by 2031, compared to Biden's target of 50 miles per gallon [2]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The automotive industry's core profits are derived from fuel vehicles, and the transition to electric vehicles represents a significant restructuring of interests, with traditional automakers facing survival pressures due to lost profits from engine manufacturing and after-sales services [4]. - The shift in stance among U.S. automakers from supporting electric vehicle initiatives to opposing stringent regulations reflects the industry's struggle with profit erosion amid changing policies [4]. Group 3: European Market Challenges - European automakers are under severe pressure from the EU's legislation to ban fuel vehicles by 2035, which is seen as overly ambitious and detrimental to businesses [5]. - The EU's "Fit for 55" plan aims for a 55% reduction in new car carbon emissions by 2030, with a complete transition to zero emissions by 2035, but this has led to some companies planning to abandon engine development altogether [5]. Group 4: Global Automotive Trends - The trend of oil-electric hybrid strategies is gaining traction globally, with Asian automakers, particularly Chinese brands like BYD, Geely, and Chery, significantly increasing their market share [7][8]. - The global automotive market remains predominantly fuel-based, with 73% of vehicles still using fuel, indicating that a rapid transition to electric vehicles is unlikely in the short term [8]. Group 5: China's Strategic Position - China's oil-electric hybrid strategy is viewed as a successful model, with the recent release of the 3.0 roadmap emphasizing the continued importance of internal combustion engines alongside electric vehicles [10]. - By 2040, it is projected that 85% of new passenger vehicles in China will be electric, with a significant market still remaining for non-pure electric models, positioning Chinese automakers as key players in the global automotive technology landscape [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is facing a significant downturn, with 2026 expected to be one of the most challenging years in its history due to declining sales and market conditions [5][37]. Group 1: Market Performance - Retail sales of passenger cars in China saw a 15% year-on-year increase earlier this year, but growth has rapidly declined since July, with October experiencing an overall negative growth [7][39]. - In November, daily retail sales averaged 4.6 million units, down 19% year-on-year in the first week, and 6.7 million units, down 9% in the second week [8][39]. - Major automakers are struggling to meet their sales targets, with only a few smaller new players achieving their goals by November [8][40]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The automotive industry is transitioning from subsidy-driven growth to competition based on real demand and efficiency, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [40][41]. - The impact of subsidies is diminishing, with over 50% of sales in 2025 attributed to trade-in programs, highlighting a reliance on government incentives [9][41]. - The market is experiencing a "strategic waiting" phase among consumers, leading to a decline in new orders as buyers anticipate better deals [15][48]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The expected decline in new energy vehicle purchase tax incentives in 2026 is anticipated to further exacerbate market challenges [15][47]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is slowing, with a notable drop in total retail volume despite high growth rates in percentage terms [15][47]. - The industry is likely to undergo a significant restructuring, with weaker companies facing exit from the market, marking a shift from scale expansion to value competition [32][65]. Group 4: Technological Developments - The automotive sector is exploring various technological advancements, including smart driving and battery innovations, but progress varies across different areas [51][54]. - The introduction of solid-state batteries and centralized computing is underway, but widespread adoption is not expected until 2026 or later [54][55]. - The smart driving sector is experiencing a technological leap, with new models expected to enhance user trust and influence purchasing decisions in 2026 [57][60].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that 2026 is expected to be a challenging year for the Chinese automotive industry, with significant declines in sales and a shift from subsidy-driven growth to competition based on real demand and efficiency [2][9]. Sales Performance - Retail sales of passenger cars in China saw a 15% year-on-year growth at the beginning of the year, but the growth rate has sharply declined since July, with October experiencing an overall negative growth [4][8]. - In November, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars were 46,000 units, down 19% year-on-year in the first week, 9% in the second week, and 7% in the third week [6]. Company Targets and Achievements - BYD aimed for 4.6 million units and achieved 4.18 million units by November, facing challenges to meet its target [7]. - SAIC Group set a target of 4.5 million units, with 4.11 million units sold by November, likely to meet its goal [7]. - Chery and Li Auto are unlikely to meet their targets, while Xiaomi and Leap Motor have already achieved theirs [11]. Market Dynamics - The automotive industry is experiencing its lowest profit margins in five years, with an average profit margin of only 3.8%, leading to significant price reductions [8]. - The market is shifting from a subsidy-driven model to one focused on genuine consumer demand and efficiency, indicating a potential industry "cold wave" in 2026 [8][41]. Subsidy Impact - The impact of subsidies is diminishing, with over 50% of sales in 2025 attributed to trade-in programs, which are now facing adjustments and reductions in many regions [10][13]. - The withdrawal of subsidies is leading to a significant drop in consumer purchasing activity, as many are adopting a "wait-and-see" approach [19][23]. Technological Developments - The article discusses various technological advancements in the automotive sector, including developments in autonomous driving and battery technology, which are seen as potential growth areas for 2026 [26][30]. - The shift towards "software-defined vehicles" and advancements in intelligent driving systems are expected to play a crucial role in the market's future [30][40]. Industry Outlook - The automotive industry is facing a structural adjustment, with weaker companies likely to exit the market as competition intensifies [47]. - The transition from scale expansion to value competition is seen as essential for the long-term health of the industry, with a focus on innovation and efficiency [47][48].

2020-2025年1-10月中国汽车产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 上市企业：比亚迪（002594）,长城汽车（601633）,上汽集团（600104）,广汽集团（601238）,一汽解放 （000800）,东风汽车（600006）,赛力斯（601127） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国汽车行业市场深度评估及投资机会预测报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年10月中国汽车产量为328万辆，同比增长11.2%；2025年1-10月中国汽 车累计产量为2732.5万辆，累计增长11%。 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 12月5日，上汽集团在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，11月12日"上汽旗舰大六座"智己 LS9上市，25分钟大定突破5000台。 ...

证券日报网讯 12月5日，上汽集团在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，MG4半固体电池"安芯版"搭载的 半固体电池由清陶动力提供。清陶动力主要产品为半固态电池、全固态电池，客户主要为上汽乘用车等 整车企业。清陶动力的全固态电池产线已在上海安亭实现全线贯通，今年年底将实现样件生产下线，明 年将进行全固态电池样车测试，力争2027年实现全固态电池的量产交付。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

证券日报网讯 12月5日，上汽集团在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，上汽MG4半固体电池"安芯版"搭 载的半固体电池液态电解质含量压缩到5%，从根本上减少了起火爆炸的风险，使用的创新"陶瓷盾 牌"材料，从根本上避免正负极短路，循环寿命与安全协同提升。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Viewpoint - SAIC Motor Corporation has announced the progress of its all-solid-state battery production line, aiming for mass production by 2027 [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The all-solid-state battery production line has achieved full connectivity in Anting, Shanghai [1] - Sample production is expected to commence by the end of this year [1] - Testing of sample vehicles using the all-solid-state battery is planned for next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector are initiating a collective counter-offensive to improve their market position and operational efficiency, following a series of IPO applications and capital operations aimed at enhancing their competitiveness against private companies like BYD and Tesla [1][2][10]. Group 1: Market Performance and Challenges - From January to November, BYD achieved cumulative sales of 4.182 million vehicles, while Tesla's sales in China were lower but still significant due to its global influence and profitability [3]. - In contrast, major SOEs like SAIC Motor and Changan Automobile reported significantly lower sales figures, with SAIC selling 1.499 million NEVs and Changan 995,000 NEVs during the same period [3]. - The performance of high-end brands under these SOEs, such as Lantu and Avita, remains modest, with annual sales ranging from tens of thousands to a few hundred thousand units, indicating a struggle to capture market attention and innovate effectively [3]. Group 2: Financial Struggles and Strategic Shifts - Private companies have established sustainable profit paths through vertical integration and technology development, with BYD reporting a net profit of 23.33 billion yuan and Tesla 2.91 billion USD (approximately 20.91 billion yuan) in the first three quarters of the year [4]. - In contrast, many SOE NEV businesses are still in the investment phase, facing significant losses, such as Avita's cumulative loss exceeding 11 billion yuan and Lantu's loss of about 3.1 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [4]. - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is pushing for performance assessments focused on efficiency and returns, prompting SOEs to seek market-driven reforms and independent operations [4][5]. Group 3: Capitalization and Market Mechanisms - The recent wave of IPOs and financing is viewed as a critical move for SOEs to establish independent operational mechanisms and secure necessary funding for R&D and market expansion [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that independent listings will compel these companies to improve governance structures and attract talent, addressing historical inefficiencies in innovation [7]. - The goal is to balance the manufacturing strengths of traditional SOEs with the agility and resources gained from capital markets, creating a new competitive edge [7]. Group 4: Future Industry Dynamics - The influx of capital will intensify competition in technology differentiation and production scale, with brands needing to effectively convert funding into production and sales to maintain cash flow [8]. - The industry is expected to undergo significant consolidation, with predictions that the number of NEV manufacturers in China could shrink to fewer than 15, making successful IPOs a critical factor for survival [9][10]. - Global market expansion will become increasingly important, as domestic competition intensifies, and SOEs leverage their parent companies' global strategies to compete internationally [10].