Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices rebounded due to the US-UK trade agreement and increased geopolitical uncertainties. The report remains optimistic about leading companies with strong alpha that are less correlated with oil prices, suggesting bottom-fishing strategies. It emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and opportunities in new material substitutes, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring farming season [13][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a rebound in oil prices influenced by geopolitical factors and trade agreements, maintaining a focus on companies with strong fundamentals and less dependency on oil prices. It suggests monitoring domestic demand and new material substitutes, especially in the agricultural sector [13][14]. 2. Oil and Chemical Prices Information 2.1 Oil - As of May 9, Brent oil prices increased by 4.3% to $63.91 per barrel. The US commercial crude oil inventory was 438.4 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 2 million barrels. Gasoline inventory rose by 200,000 barrels to 225.7 million barrels, while distillate fuel inventory decreased by 1.1 million barrels to 106.7 million barrels [14]. 2.2 Chemicals - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were liquid chlorine (up 134.1%), natural gas (up 8.0%), and polymer MDI (up 5.0%). The top three price decreases were formic acid (down 10.0%), succinic anhydride (down 9.4%), and cyclohexanone (down 6.9%) [9][15]. 3. Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended companies include: - Wanhua Chemical: Core product MDI shows recent profit improvement with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects [13]. - Huangma Technology: A leading special polyether company that has entered a growth phase [13]. - Runfeng Co., Ltd.: A rare company with global formulation registration and sales channels [13]. - Guoguang Co., Ltd.: A leading company in the plant growth regulator sector [13]. - Hualu Hengsheng: Core product prices are recovering alongside falling coal prices, leading to improved price differentials [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the basic chemical industry [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The energy price center is expected to decline year-on-year in 2024, but terminal demand remains weak, leading to a bottoming out of chemical price spreads. The average price of Brent crude oil in 2024 is projected to be $80.93 per barrel, down 2% year-on-year [2][3]. - In Q1 2025, oil prices stabilized, and post-holiday terminal replenishment demand improved, leading to a recovery in basic chemical profitability. The report highlights a "V"-shaped bottom reversal in market conditions [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that while terminal demand was weak in 2024, certain sectors like chlor-alkali, compound fertilizers, and nylon saw significant performance improvements [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The chemical sector experienced a "W"-shaped trend in 2024, with construction projects peaking and then declining. The overall revenue for the chemical sector in 2024 was 2.81% higher year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 2.68% [2][3][36]. - In Q1 2025, the chemical sector's revenue reached 496.9 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 9% to 32.8 billion yuan [2][3][41]. 2. Sector Performance - The report identifies specific sectors with improved profitability in Q1 2025, including fluorochemicals, food and feed additives, pesticides, potassium fertilizers, and compound fertilizers [2][3]. - The report notes that the overall asset-liability ratio for the chemical industry is 49.3%, indicating a historical low, and highlights a significant slowdown in capital expenditure growth [2][3][43]. 3. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on traditional cyclical companies with strong fundamentals, such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy, as well as specific sectors like fluorochemicals and agricultural chemicals [2][3][4]. - It also highlights growth opportunities in semiconductor materials and panel materials, emphasizing companies with low valuations and strong performance potential [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, China's chemical industry carbon emissions are projected to be approximately 1.58 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.28%, with a deceleration in growth rate compared to 2023 [1][12] Industry Overview - Carbon neutrality technology in the chemical industry aims to reduce CO2 emissions during production or achieve net-zero emissions through carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) [2] - The carbon neutrality technologies can be categorized into carbon reduction, zero-carbon, negative carbon, and circular economy technologies [2] Industry Development History - The development of carbon neutrality technology in China's chemical industry has progressed through three stages: introduction and exploration (before 2015), planning (2015-2020), and implementation and promotion (2021-present) [4] - Since 2021, significant advancements have been made in energy consumption and carbon emission control, with major companies like Sinopec actively participating in carbon neutrality initiatives [4] Industry Chain - The upstream of the carbon neutrality technology industry chain includes raw materials, equipment, and technical services, while the midstream involves the implementation of carbon neutrality technologies [6] - Key equipment includes carbon capture devices, low-carbon energy utilization devices, and high-efficiency energy-saving devices [6] Current Industry Status - In 2024, China's total CO2 emissions are expected to be 12.6 billion tons, remaining stable compared to 2023, with GDP growth of 5.0% and a decrease in carbon emission intensity by 3.4% [10] - The increase in non-fossil energy consumption and the growth of clean energy generation are contributing to the transition away from fossil fuels [10] Key Enterprises - Major companies in the sector include China National Chemical Corporation, Wanhua Chemical, and Zhongcai Energy, focusing on carbon capture and low-carbon technologies [18][20] - Wanhua Chemical has made significant strides in carbon neutrality technology, expanding into new materials and renewable energy sectors [18] Industry Development Trends - The chemical industry is expected to accelerate technological innovation and green transformation, with a focus on replacing traditional fossil materials with bio-based and renewable resources [22] - Integration of the industry chain and collaborative development will be emphasized, with companies extending their operations from raw materials to downstream fine chemical products [23] - The market landscape will shift significantly under carbon neutrality policies, with increased attention on new energy materials and carbon capture technologies [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, particularly highlighting undervalued and high-growth opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The anti-dumping duties on chlorpyrifos are expected to benefit domestic companies, with a recommendation to focus on Yangnong Chemical [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of orderly exports of nitrogen fertilizers, suggesting that leading domestic companies should adopt a proactive pricing strategy to avoid excessive competition [3]. - The chemical sector is experiencing a gradual recovery in PPI, with a focus on investment opportunities in cyclical products due to low inventory levels [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic conditions indicate a mixed outlook for oil, coal, and natural gas prices, with oil prices supported by shale oil production costs [3][4]. - The report notes a significant price increase in PTA and MEG, driven by supply constraints and optimistic market sentiment [9][10]. Fertilizer and Pesticide Market - Domestic urea prices have risen by 2.8% to 1830 CNY/ton, influenced by export policy expectations [11]. - The report highlights the stable pricing of various pesticides, with specific price points for glyphosate and other herbicides remaining unchanged [11]. Chemical Products Pricing - The report provides detailed pricing trends for various chemical products, including a 1.6% decrease in PVC prices and stable pricing for other chemicals like DMC and silicone [12][13]. - The report indicates a cautious market sentiment in the dye industry, with prices remaining stable despite cost support from raw materials [15]. Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, with recommendations for stocks such as Yangnong Chemical (buy) and Hualu Chemical (increase) based on their projected earnings and market performance [17][18].

Group 1 - Wanhua Chemical announced a share buyback plan to be approved at the first meeting of the ninth board of directors on April 12, 2025 [1] - The top ten unrestricted shareholders as of May 9, 2025, hold a total of approximately 1.818 billion shares, accounting for 57.9% of the total shares [1] - The largest shareholder, Yantai Guofeng Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., holds about 678 million shares, representing 21.59% of the total [1] Group 2 - Yantai Zhongcheng Investment Co., Ltd. is the second-largest shareholder with approximately 330 million shares, accounting for 10.52% [1] - Ningbo Zhongkai Xin Venture Capital Co., Ltd. holds around 302 million shares, representing 9.61% [1] - Other notable shareholders include Prime Partner International Limited and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 5.51% and 4.55% respectively [1]

证券代码：600309 证券简称：万华化学 公告编号：临 2025-25 号 万华化学集团股份有限公司关于 回购股份事项前十大股东和前十大无限售条件股东持股情况的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大 遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 万华化学集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年4月12日召开第 九届董事会2025年第一次会议，审议通过了《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公 司部分股份的议案》，具体内容详见公司于2025年4月16日在上海证券交易所网 站披露的《万华化学集团股份有限公司关于以集中竞价交易方式回购股份方案 的公告》 （公告编号：临2025-20号）。上述事项尚需公司2024年度股东大会审议。 根据《上市公司股份回购规则》 《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 数量、比例情况公告如下： 序号 股东名称 持股数量（股） 持股比例 中国工商银行－上证50交易型开放式指数证券投 资基金 中国工商银行股份有限公司－华泰柏瑞沪深300 交易型开放式指数证券投资基金 中国建设银行股份有限公司－易方达沪深300交 易型开放式指数发起式 ...

| 序号 | 股东名称 | 持股数量（股） | 持股比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 烟台国丰投资控股集团有限公司 | 677,764,654 | 21.59% | | 2 | 烟台中诚投资股份有限公司 | 330,379,594 | 10.52% | | 3 | 宁波市中凯信创业投资股份有限公司 | 301,808,357 | 9.61% | | 4 | Prime Partner International Limited | 172,993,229 | 5.51% | | 5 | 香港中央结算有限公司 | 142,888,996 | 4.55% | | 6 | 中国证券金融股份有限公司 | 73,348,508 | 2.34% | | 7 | 中国工商银行－上证50交易型开放式指数证券投 资基金 | 38,585,568 | 1.23% | | 8 | 中国工商银行股份有限公司－华泰柏瑞沪深300 交易型开放式指数证券投资基金 | 34,756,232 | 1.11% | | 9 | 中国建设银行股份有限公司－易方达沪深300交 易型开放式指数发起式证券投资基金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for polymer foam materials is increasing due to rising living standards and the need for comfort, safety, and environmental protection. The market size of China's polymer foam materials industry is projected to grow from 1.2 trillion yuan in 2019 to 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.9% [1][14]. Industry Overview - Polymer foam materials are characterized by a porous structure, low density, and excellent thermal insulation, sound absorption, and fire resistance properties. They can be categorized into various types, including polyurethane, polystyrene, polyethylene, and polypropylene foams [3][5]. - The industry has evolved through four stages: initiation (1980-1992), development (1993-2005), rapid development (2006-2015), and transformation (2015-present) [5]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the polymer foam materials industry includes raw materials such as plastics, rubber, catalysts, and foaming agents, primarily sourced from the petrochemical industry. The midstream involves the production of polymer foam materials, while the downstream encompasses applications in construction, packaging, consumer electronics, and transportation [8]. Market Demand and Applications - Polymer foam materials are widely used in construction for insulation, soundproofing, and fire protection, in the automotive industry to reduce weight and enhance safety, and in packaging to protect products and reduce costs. The packaging market in China is expected to reach approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.99% [12][14]. Competitive Landscape - The industry is becoming increasingly competitive, with numerous companies entering the market. Key players include Changzhou Tiangsheng New Materials Group Co., Ltd., Hubei Xiangyuan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., and others. Companies must enhance their technology, product quality, and cost efficiency to remain competitive [18][20]. Development Trends 1. **Environmental Focus**: The industry is moving towards environmentally friendly practices, including the reduction or elimination of harmful substances in production processes [24]. 2. **Multifunctionality**: Future developments will focus on enhancing the functionalities of polymer foam materials, such as adding flame retardant, anti-static, and antibacterial properties [25]. 3. **Intelligent Manufacturing**: The industry is transitioning towards smart and automated manufacturing processes, integrating information technology with production techniques to drive sustainable development [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company, with an expected EPS of 4.65, 5.70, and 6.06 for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 11.7, 9.54, and 8.98 times [6][9]. Core Views - The company demonstrates strong operational resilience and is expected to maintain long-term growth despite short-term economic fluctuations. The global layout is expected to solidify its leading position in the polyurethane market, with new high-value-added products anticipated to enhance profitability [5][6]. - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 1820.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.83%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 22.49% to 130.33 billion yuan. The decline in profit was attributed to credit impairment losses and asset impairment losses totaling 9.4 billion yuan [5][7]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in polyurethane and has successfully industrialized new materials, with significant projects expected to come online in the near future, further strengthening its market position [5][6]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1821 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 3.83%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover to 146.10 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.10% [7][8]. - The EBITDA for 2024 is reported at 328.17 billion yuan, with projections of 241.94 billion yuan, 286.87 billion yuan, and 299.01 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [7][8]. - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 64.7%, with expectations for gradual improvement in the coming years [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 182.07 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.83%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 22.49% to 13.03 billion yuan [1][9] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 12.5 yuan per 10 shares based on a total share capital of 3.14 billion shares [1][9] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 43.07 billion yuan, a decline of 6.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.08 billion yuan, down 25.87% [1][9] Revenue Breakdown - The company’s revenue in 2024 was segmented as follows: - Polyurethane series: 75.84 billion yuan (up 12.6% year-on-year) - Petrochemical series: 72.52 billion yuan (up 4.6% year-on-year) - Fine chemicals and new materials: 28.27 billion yuan (up 18.6% year-on-year) - Other main businesses: 21.13 billion yuan (down 23.1% year-on-year) [2][10] Profitability Analysis - The company’s gross profit margin was 16.2%, a slight decline of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, with gross profit amounting to 29.43 billion yuan [2][11] - The gross profit for the Polyurethane series was 19.83 billion yuan, for Petrochemical series was 2.55 billion yuan, and for Fine chemicals and new materials was 3.61 billion yuan, with significant declines in the latter [2][11] Expense and Impairment - The company’s expense ratio for 2024 was 6.2%, with total expenses amounting to 6.736 billion yuan, an increase of 12.64 billion yuan year-on-year [3][41] - The company recorded an impairment loss of 740 million yuan, primarily affecting inventory and fixed assets [3][42] Future Profit Forecast - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 13.13 billion yuan, 16.31 billion yuan, and 22.48 billion yuan respectively, with the 2025 and 2026 forecasts revised down from previous estimates [4][52]