证券代码：600309 证券简称：万华化学 公告编号：临 2024-36 号 万华化学集团股份有限公司 2024 年 7 月 16 日 根据化工企业生产工艺特点，为确保生产装置安全有效运行，按照年度检修 计划，本公司子公司匈牙利宝思德化学公司（BorsodChem Zrt.）MDI（40 万吨/ 年）、TDI（25 万吨/年）等一体化装置及相关配套装置将于 2024 年 7 月 16 日开 始陆续停产检修，预计检修 40 天左右。 本次停产检修是根据年度计划进行的例行检修，对公司的生产经营不会产生 影响。 特此公告。 万华化学集团股份有限公司 关于子公司匈牙利宝思德化学公司装置停产检修的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大 遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 ...

那么我们在7月9号的六月月报《海外MBI装置不可抗御评划 宁波二十万吨CPI-100矿泉项目的一个环境公式》那么今天由我来给大家汇报一下我们本篇这个万化学六月月报的一个大体的观点和一些数据那么话鸿其实上我们对万化学是比较看好的 那么整个的未来竞争优势在于工程师红利,那是国内少有的技术创新来驱动公司发展的一个典型。那么公司以优良的工程师文化为基础,通过技术创新和卓越的运营,打造出高技术和低成本两大互补点。 那么从短期来看我们觉得影响万华的基本面是紧急度我们下面会引用我们一贯的这个较真指标通过价差的中期性或者中期的位置来去讲解最近万华所处的紧急的水平那么我们整体是通过三个紧急度判断体系一个是虚安纸大的体系石化大体系 金材料大体系然后去对这个价差性建模要去做的一个指数的判断 那么这个一会儿会讲到那么从长期来看影响万华的这个基本点还是我们之前说的工程师努力的核案的一个落地那么这里面实际上我们认为能够证明公司有持续的成长性的一些里程碑式的新产品就比较重要了那么现在MBI已经证明了自己那么未来落地的项目就是关键的里程碑的产品这里面可能会是我们认为包括像特种案包括像PoE包括像柠檬璇等等的一些产品可能也是市场比较关注的一些 ...

万华化学 20240711_原文 2024年07月11日 23:43 发言人 00:00 那么我们在7月9号的六月月报，在MBI装置不可抗力频发，宁波20万吨ETHEFI的项目一个环境布置， 今天由我来给大家汇报一下，我们本身这个万汉学六月月报的一个大观点和一些数据。化工实际上我们对 量化学习比较看好。整个的未来的竞争优势在于工程师红利。万华是国内少有的技术创新来驱动公司发展 的一个典型。公司以优良的研工程师文化为基础，通过技术创新和卓越的运营，打造出高技术和低成本两 大互动点。 发言人 00:43 从短期来看，我们觉得理想光滑的基本面的是景气度。我们下面会引用我们一贯的这个表征指标，通过价 差的周期性或者周期的位置来去讲解最近万华所处的景气的水平。我们整体通过三个只记住判断体系，一 个是聚氨酯大的体系和石化大体系，材料大。然后去进行他对这个假法进行建模，然后去做的一个指数的 判断，这个地方会讲到。 发言人 01:15 从长期来看，影响万华的这个基本面，还是我们之前说的空投区红利的河岸的一个落地。这里面是我们认 为能够证明公司有持续的成长性的一些里程碑式的新产品就比较重要了。现在 MBI已经证明了自己，那么 ...

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2024 年 07 月 09 日 公司研究 评级:买入(维持) | | | |-------------|----------------------| | 研究所: | | | 证券分析师: | 李永磊S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师: | 董伯骏S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师: | 贾冰S0350524030003 | | | jiab@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 海外 MDI 装置不可抗力频发,宁波 20 万吨 HDI 技改扩能项目第一次环评公示 ——万华化学(600309)6 月月报 最近一年走势 相对沪深 300 表现 2024/07/09 表现 1M 3M 12M 万华化学 -10.7% -7.8% -6.2% 沪深 300 -3.8% -2.7% -10.1% 市场数据 2024/07/09 当前价格(元) 78.58 52 周价格区间(元) 66.78-99.78 总市值(百万) 246,721.29 流通市值(百万) 246,721 ...

证券代码：600309 证券简称：万华化学 公告编号：临 2024-35 号 本次停产检修是根据年度计划进行的例行检修，对公司的生产经营不会产生 影响。 特此公告。 万华化学集团股份有限公司 烟台产业园 MDI、TDI 等一体化装置停产检修公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大 遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据化工企业生产工艺特点，为确保生产装置安全有效运行，按照年度检修 计划，公司烟台产业园 MDI（110 万吨/年）、TDI（30 万吨/年）等一体化装置及 相关配套装置将于 2024 年 7 月 16 日开始停产检修，预计检修 45 天左右。 2024 年 7 月 10 日 万华化学集团股份有限公司 ...

证券代码：600309 证券简称：万华化学 公告编号：临 2024-34 号 万华化学集团股份有限公司 关于持股 5%以上股东部分股份质押公告 3.股东累计质押股份情况 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: 公司股东宁波市中凯信创业投资股份有限公司持有万华化学股份 301,808,357 股，占公 司总股本比例 9.61%，本次股份质押业务办理完成后，宁波市中凯信创业投资股份有限 公司累计质押股份 69,400,000 股，占其持股数量比例 22.99%。 公司于 2024 年 7 月 8 日获悉宁波市中凯信创业投资股份有限公司（以下简 称"中凯信"）所持有本公司的部分股份被质押，具体情况如下。 2.本次质押股份不存在被用作重大资产重组业绩补偿等事项的担保或其他 保障用途。 截至公告披露日，上述股东及其一致行动人烟台中诚投资股份有限公司（以 1 股东 名称 是否为 控股股 东 本次质押股 数 是否为限 售股（如 是，注明 限售类 型） 是否 补充 质押 质押起 始日 质押到 期日 质权人 占其所 持股 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The successful commissioning of the first phase of the 200,000 tons/year POE project marks a significant breakthrough in China's self-sufficiency in POE production, which has previously relied heavily on imports [2][5] - The global demand for POE is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11% from 2023 to 2029, with China's demand potentially growing even faster at an estimated CAGR of 18% from 2021 to 2025 [5] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 19.384 billion, 22.473 billion, and 23.337 billion yuan for 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of +15.3%, +15.9%, and +3.8% respectively, with corresponding EPS of 6.17, 7.16, and 7.43 yuan [2][18] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The first phase of the 200,000 tons/year POE project was successfully commissioned on June 29, 2024, marking the first large-scale self-developed POE industrial facility in China [2] - The company is a leader in the polyurethane industry, providing stable profit guarantees while steadily advancing new projects [18] Market Analysis - The POE market is characterized by high concentration, with the top five global producers holding approximately 96% of the market share [5] - The main applications for POE are in the photovoltaic and automotive industries, with the photovoltaic sector accounting for about 45% of total consumption and the automotive sector for approximately 38% [3][4] Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 19.384 billion, 22.473 billion, and 23.337 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 6.17, 7.16, and 7.43 yuan [2][18] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 13.0, 11.2, and 10.8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The successful commissioning of the 200,000 tons/year POE project marks a significant milestone for the company, establishing it as the first domestic enterprise to achieve large-scale production of POE [2]. - The demand for POE is expected to grow steadily, with a projected global market size of $3.73 billion by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 8.6% from 2023 to 2029 [2]. - The company has a comprehensive upstream and downstream layout in the POE industry chain, enhancing its competitive advantage [2]. Summary by Sections Project Development - The first phase of the 200,000 tons/year POE project achieved full-process commissioning on June 29, 2024, producing qualified products on the same day [2]. - The company plans to expand its POE capacity to 600,000 tons/year, with an additional 400,000 tons/year project under construction expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [2]. Market Position - The company has broken the overseas monopoly in large-scale POE production, positioning itself to establish deep ties with high-quality downstream customers [2]. - The domestic market for photovoltaic-grade POE film is rapidly increasing, with approximately 1.6 million tons of POE capacity under construction or planned in China [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s net profit is projected to be 20.67 billion, 24.84 billion, and 27.26 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 175.36 billion yuan in 2023 to 249.03 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.44% from 2023 to 2024 [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a P/E ratio forecast decreasing from 16 in 2022 to 9 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation outlook [3]. - The company’s ROE is projected to remain strong, with estimates of 19.83% in 2024 and 19.22% in 2026 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the rapid growth of the petrochemical business segment since 2015, highlighting the competitive advantage of companies that can procure, transport, and process overseas ethane due to the long-term cost advantages of ethane resources in the U.S. [2][4]. - The report outlines the strong core competitive advantages of Wanhua Chemical in its main business areas: polyurethane, fine chemicals, and petrochemicals, with a focus on the integration of ethylene projects and the expected growth in the petrochemical sector [4][11]. Summary by Sections Why Focus on U.S. Ethane Resources? - Wanhua Chemical has established strong competitive advantages in polyurethane, fine chemicals, and petrochemicals, with significant growth in the petrochemical segment since the launch of its PO/AE integration project in 2015 and the full operation of its ethylene phase one project in 2020 [4][11]. Ethane Cracking: Five Advantages Creating a Strong Moat - Ethane cracking has five key advantages: 1. Long-term oversupply of U.S. ethane leads to significantly undervalued prices, providing a clear raw material cost advantage [20]. 2. Companies with early access to pipeline and port resources will enjoy first-mover advantages in ethane cracking, while later entrants face delays due to trade restrictions [21]. 3. Ethane cracking features high ethylene yield, low investment intensity, and short processing flows, resulting in much lower processing costs compared to traditional methods [21][28]. 4. The first-mover advantage in accessing ethane resources creates a barrier for new entrants, reinforcing the competitive position of established players [35]. 5. The negative carbon footprint of ethane cracking aligns with global carbon neutrality goals, enhancing its growth potential [39]. Comprehensive Layout: Wanhua's Petrochemical Alpha Expected to Significantly Enhance - The ethylene phase two project is set to launch soon, and other projects are expected to optimize costs through imported ethane resources. Wanhua's strategic partnerships and investments in large ethane carriers position it favorably for future growth [42][44]. - The report forecasts net profits for Wanhua Chemical of 18.77 billion, 23.58 billion, and 26.68 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating strong growth potential [6].