证券代码：600309 证券简称：万华化学 公告编号：临 2024-34 号 万华化学集团股份有限公司 关于持股 5%以上股东部分股份质押公告 3.股东累计质押股份情况 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: 公司股东宁波市中凯信创业投资股份有限公司持有万华化学股份 301,808,357 股，占公 司总股本比例 9.61%，本次股份质押业务办理完成后，宁波市中凯信创业投资股份有限 公司累计质押股份 69,400,000 股，占其持股数量比例 22.99%。 公司于 2024 年 7 月 8 日获悉宁波市中凯信创业投资股份有限公司（以下简 称"中凯信"）所持有本公司的部分股份被质押，具体情况如下。 2.本次质押股份不存在被用作重大资产重组业绩补偿等事项的担保或其他 保障用途。 截至公告披露日，上述股东及其一致行动人烟台中诚投资股份有限公司（以 1 股东 名称 是否为 控股股 东 本次质押股 数 是否为限 售股（如 是，注明 限售类 型） 是否 补充 质押 质押起 始日 质押到 期日 质权人 占其所 持股 ...

万华化学(600309.SH) 一期 POE 装置开车成功,国产化进程加速 优于大市 公司研究·公司快评 基础化工·化学制品 投资评级:优于大市(维持) 证券分析师: 杨林 010-88005379 yanglin6@guosen.com.cn 执证编码:S0980520120002 证券分析师: 余双雨 021-60375485 yushuangyu@guosen.com.cn 执证编码:S0980523120001 事项: 事件:万华化学一期 20 万吨/年聚烯烃弹性体(POE)项目一次性开车成功。2024 年 6 月 29 日,万华化学 新材料事业部一期 20 万吨/年 POE 项目实现了全流程贯通,并于当日产出合格产品,标志着中国首套大规 模自主研发的 POE 工业化装置一次性高质量开车成功。 国信化工观点:1)POE 技术壁垒高,过去我国主要依赖进口,此次我国首套大规模自主研发的 POE 装置开 车,意味着我国 POE 自主化实现突破;2)POE 下游主要为光伏及汽车行业,预计 2023-2029 年全球需求复 合增速约为 11%;3)国内多家企业正在规划和建设 POE 项目,预计未来几年将逐步实现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The successful commissioning of the 200,000 tons/year POE project marks a significant milestone for the company, establishing it as the first domestic enterprise to achieve large-scale production of POE [2]. - The demand for POE is expected to grow steadily, with a projected global market size of $3.73 billion by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 8.6% from 2023 to 2029 [2]. - The company has a comprehensive upstream and downstream layout in the POE industry chain, enhancing its competitive advantage [2]. Summary by Sections Project Development - The first phase of the 200,000 tons/year POE project achieved full-process commissioning on June 29, 2024, producing qualified products on the same day [2]. - The company plans to expand its POE capacity to 600,000 tons/year, with an additional 400,000 tons/year project under construction expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [2]. Market Position - The company has broken the overseas monopoly in large-scale POE production, positioning itself to establish deep ties with high-quality downstream customers [2]. - The domestic market for photovoltaic-grade POE film is rapidly increasing, with approximately 1.6 million tons of POE capacity under construction or planned in China [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s net profit is projected to be 20.67 billion, 24.84 billion, and 27.26 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 175.36 billion yuan in 2023 to 249.03 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.44% from 2023 to 2024 [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a P/E ratio forecast decreasing from 16 in 2022 to 9 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation outlook [3]. - The company’s ROE is projected to remain strong, with estimates of 19.83% in 2024 and 19.22% in 2026 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the rapid growth of the petrochemical business segment since 2015, highlighting the competitive advantage of companies that can procure, transport, and process overseas ethane due to the long-term cost advantages of ethane resources in the U.S. [2][4]. - The report outlines the strong core competitive advantages of Wanhua Chemical in its main business areas: polyurethane, fine chemicals, and petrochemicals, with a focus on the integration of ethylene projects and the expected growth in the petrochemical sector [4][11]. Summary by Sections Why Focus on U.S. Ethane Resources? - Wanhua Chemical has established strong competitive advantages in polyurethane, fine chemicals, and petrochemicals, with significant growth in the petrochemical segment since the launch of its PO/AE integration project in 2015 and the full operation of its ethylene phase one project in 2020 [4][11]. Ethane Cracking: Five Advantages Creating a Strong Moat - Ethane cracking has five key advantages: 1. Long-term oversupply of U.S. ethane leads to significantly undervalued prices, providing a clear raw material cost advantage [20]. 2. Companies with early access to pipeline and port resources will enjoy first-mover advantages in ethane cracking, while later entrants face delays due to trade restrictions [21]. 3. Ethane cracking features high ethylene yield, low investment intensity, and short processing flows, resulting in much lower processing costs compared to traditional methods [21][28]. 4. The first-mover advantage in accessing ethane resources creates a barrier for new entrants, reinforcing the competitive position of established players [35]. 5. The negative carbon footprint of ethane cracking aligns with global carbon neutrality goals, enhancing its growth potential [39]. Comprehensive Layout: Wanhua's Petrochemical Alpha Expected to Significantly Enhance - The ethylene phase two project is set to launch soon, and other projects are expected to optimize costs through imported ethane resources. Wanhua's strategic partnerships and investments in large ethane carriers position it favorably for future growth [42][44]. - The report forecasts net profits for Wanhua Chemical of 18.77 billion, 23.58 billion, and 26.68 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating strong growth potential [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Wanhua Chemical (600309 SH) [1][14] Core Views - Wanhua Chemical's 1 million tons/year ethylene plant feedstock diversification project will switch from propane to ethane, reducing raw material costs and improving economic efficiency [2] - Ethane-based ethylene production has higher yield, lower material and energy consumption, and better environmental benefits compared to propane [2][4] - The company has a solid profit foundation as a leading polyurethane industry player, with new projects steadily progressing [2] - The report maintains net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at 19 384/22 473/23 337 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +15 3%/+15 9%/+3 8% [2][14] Ethylene Production Analysis - Ethane cracking has the highest ethylene yield at 77 65%, significantly higher than propane's 44 82% [3][4] - Ethane-based ethylene production requires lower investment (413 5 million USD) and has lower relative material and energy consumption (100) compared to propane (508 5 million USD, 144) [5][6] - The project's unit ethylene energy consumption (372 7 kgoe/t) and unit dual-olefin energy consumption (359 2 kgoe/t) are better than industry benchmarks [7] Environmental Impact - The project will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 12 286 tCO2e/a compared to the original process [7] - Unit product greenhouse gas emissions will decrease from 1 23 tCO2e/t to 0 91 tCO2e/t after the transformation [7] Supply Chain and Logistics - Ethane supply stability faces constraints due to US export terminal capacity, shipping capacity, and China's import infrastructure limitations [8] - Wanhua has established a strategic joint venture with ADNOC L&S to ensure LPG and other raw material transportation [8] Polyurethane Market - The company's main product, polymeric MDI, is experiencing a recovery in market conditions driven by increased demand for refrigerators and freezers [9] - As of June 16, 2024, the average market price of polymeric MDI was 17 002 yuan/ton, up 11% year-on-year [9] - China's refrigerator and freezer production showed year-on-year growth of 25% and 15% respectively in April 2024 [9]

2024 年 06 月 14 日 公司研究 评级：买入 (维持 ) 研究所： [Table_Title] 海外 装置不可抗力频发，万华大乙烯装置 MDI 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 拟进行原料多元化改造 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 杨丽蓉 S0350122080038 ——万华化学（ ）公司动态研究 yanglr@ghzq.com.cn 600309 最近一年走势 投资要点 : 化工行业未来的竞争优势在于“工程师红利”，万华化学是国内少有的 以技术创新驱动公司发展的典型。公司以优良文化为基础，通过技术创 新和卓越运营打造出高技术和低成本两大护城河。万华化学正以周期成 长股的步伐向全球化工巨头之列进军。 短期看，影响万华化学基本面的是产品的景气度，从表征指标来看，价 差是影响短期利润最核心的因素。万华化学的产品体系日益庞大，为更 好地表示公司景气的程度，我们将万华化学的产品体系作为一个整体， 相对沪深300表现 2024/06/13 按照现有的产品体系，对营收和原材料的差值建模 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 107.09 CNY, reflecting a 15% premium on the estimated PE ratio of 18 times for 2024 [1][15]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual increase in revenue, with projected sales of 185,675 million CNY in 2024, representing a 5.9% year-on-year growth [2]. - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach 18,280 million CNY in 2024, with an 8.7% year-on-year increase [2]. - The report highlights the strategic partnership with ADNOC, which is seen as a potential facilitator for establishing an ethane supply chain, crucial for the company's future operations [5][11]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022: 165,565 million CNY - 2023: 175,361 million CNY - 2024: 185,675 million CNY [2] - **Net Profit**: - 2022: 16,234 million CNY - 2023: 16,816 million CNY - 2024: 18,280 million CNY [2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 5.82 CNY - 2025: 6.89 CNY - 2026: 8.00 CNY [3][15] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 17.5% in 2024 - Net Margin: 9.8% in 2024 - Return on Equity (ROE): 19.2% in 2024 [2] Strategic Developments - The company plans to utilize ethane as a raw material in its upcoming Yantai Ethylene Phase II project, which is expected to commence operations by the end of this year [5][11]. - The partnership with ADNOC, particularly the acquisition of a stake in the Rio Grande LNG project, is viewed as a significant step towards securing a stable ethane supply chain [11][13].

Equity – Asia Research 万华化学 ：五月月报 (600309.CH) Wanhua Chemical Group: Monthly Report in May 孙小涵 Xiaohan Sun xh.sun@htisec.com 2024年6月5日 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券 研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请 参阅附录。(PleaseseeappendixforEnglishtranslationofthedisclaimer) 目录 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年05月24日 万华化学（600309.SH） 买入 多项目顺利推进，聚氨酯龙头产线持续拓宽  公司研究·公司快评  基础化工·化学制品  投资评级：买入（维持评级） 证券分析师： 杨林 010-88005379 yanglin6@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980520120002 证券分析师： 余双雨 021-60375485 yushuangyu@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523120001 事项： 事件：2024年5月16日，万华化学（蓬莱）有限公司丙烯酸及酯二期项目、40万吨年聚烯烃弹性体（POE） 项目进行环评受理公示。万华化学（蓬莱）有限公司丙烯酸及酯二期项目新建16万吨/年丙烯酸装置、40 万吨/年丙烯酸丁酯装置及配套公用工程和辅助设施，项目总定员58人，计划从2024年5月开始建设， 建设周期为14个月。乙烯二期项目位于万华化学烟台工业园，项目占地约1215亩，计划投资176亿元， 主要建设120万吨/年乙烯裂解装置、25万吨/年低密度聚乙烯（LDPE）装置、2×20万吨/年聚烯烃弹性 体（POE）装置、20万吨/年丁二烯装 ...

万华化学（600309.SH）深度报告 一年好景君须记，又是橙红橘绿时 2024年05月23日 ➢ 公司股价复盘。公司上市23年来持续保持高速增长，营收从2000年的3.45 推荐 维持评级 亿元，增长到2023年的1754亿元，CAGR达31.12%，归母净利从2000年的 当前价格： 89.09元 0.50亿元，增长到168.16 亿元，CAGR达28.81%。近10年公司股价2次翻 倍级别的大幅上涨，两大必要条件是新建产能集中投放+产品价格上涨。从公司 [Table_Author] 核心业务聚氨酯、规模日益扩大的石化业务、以及研发资源大量投入的精细化学 品及新材料业务近1-2年的变化情况来看，都有望进入多年持续投入的收获期， 公司产业版图正进入又一个“橙红橘绿时”的收获时刻。 ➢ 石化业务，小院沃土引来活水。公司已运营有75万吨/年PDH，100万吨/ 年 LPG 裂解制乙烯两大石化项目，这两大项目是公司一体化战略的产业基础， 今年规模更大、技术更先进的蓬莱 90 万吨 PDH 石化一体化项目，120 万吨乙 分析师 刘海荣 烯项目将陆续中交投产，将进一步扩大公司上游产业基础。同时，二期乙烯采用 执业证 ...