茅台在8月12日晚间发布了2025年半年度报告，上半年营业总收入和归母净利润增速均降至个位数，低于市场预期，对股价产生了一定影响。8月13日，贵 州茅台（600519）收盘价为1420.05元，较前一交易日下跌1.18%。受业绩增速放缓影响，市场情绪偏谨慎，部分投资者选择获利了结或观望。主力资金净 流出较大，显示部分机构投资者对茅台后市表现持谨慎态度。 日均盈利，按181天计算，日均赚 2.5亿元，增速放缓。这一数据背后，是白酒行业深度调整期的缩影。 对比2024年，贵州茅台实现营业总收入1741.44亿元，同比增长15.66%；归母净利润862.28亿元，同比增长15.38%，日赚约3.28亿元。 从产品具体来看。茅台酒实现收入755.9亿元，同比增长10.24%，仍是核心增长引擎。系列酒实现收入137.63亿元，同比增长4.69%，但净利润同比下降 15.31%，反映中端市场内卷加剧。国内收入864.59亿元，同比增长8.74%。国外收入28.93亿元，同比增长31.26%，显示茅台在国际化布局上取得了一定成 效。从销售渠道来看，直销收入400.1亿元，同比增长18.6%，占总营收44.76%，同比提升3 ...

A股复盘 | 突破 / 2025.08.13 兄弟姐妹萌， 再看看，现在是牛市第几阶段了？ 今天好多人撤了吧， 群友们说的最多的话就是卖飞了！大家都以为沪指摸高3674点后会回 落，结果一点也跌不下去！ 今天整理了大摩的一个会议纪要， 关于"水牛"现象，即境内A股市场是否存在大规模资金流入的情况？ 我今天涨得好的就是中证A500ETF，哈哈哈，个股不太行，说实话，这段时间连沪指都跑不赢啊！ 牛市来了不知道买啥就买指数啊！ 大摩说，他们定义的高质量板块包括那些具有长期可持续盈利增长轨迹和预期的板块，它们在股东回报率方面进行各种提升行为，如降本增 效、股本回购和分红。这些板块主要包括金融、互联网、信息技术和科技板块。 即使在中国股票市场总体盈利增速下调的过程中，这些板块 的表现仍然非常亮眼。而这些板块目前已占据明晟中国指数近80%的权重，这个权重非常庞大。相反，传统的、与中国宏观经济关联度较高 的行业，如房地产、原材料和重化工业等，其在明晟中国指数中的比重已经降至接近10%。这种变化是在过去五年内形成的，导致了两种板 块分布的巨大差异，进而影响了整个股市大盘指数的表现。 外资方面，大摩指出，六七月份外资都是净流入 ...

营业收入增速同比下降近50%，净利润则下降了40%以上，归为白酒龙头老大，贵州茅台今年上半年的 业绩，虽然依旧实现了稳定增长，但同过去相比，增速已然出现乏力迹象。 对于上述情况，该公司解释称，这主要是销量增加及生产成本增加所致。而2025年主要目标，是实现营 业总收入在上年的基础上增长9%左右，完成固定资产投资47.11亿元。展望未来，虽面临不少难题，但 有利因素强于不利因素，总体发展态势依然向好。 从高成长到高股息？ 8月12日晚间披露的半年报显示，今年上半年，贵州茅台的营业总收入、净利润，同比只分别增长了 9.16%、8.89%，与去年同期17.7%、15.8%以上的增速相比，今年上半年已经出现了显著下滑；营业成 本则较上年同期增长了15%以上，毛利率则同比小幅下降。 业内人士认为，茅台酒的消费需求下降，"囤酒"的金融属性也在下降，这可能会导致该公司未来的业绩 增速进一步放缓。而贵州茅台也将从高成长属性，逐步变成高股息属性，随着其他高股息个股上升，贵 州茅台能否获得价值投资者青睐，需要继续观察。 上半年营收增速接近"腰斩" 半年报显示，今年上半年，贵州茅台实现营业总收入近911亿元，同比增长9.16%；净 ...

证券研究报告 贵州茅台 (600519 CH) 延续稳健增长，海外表现亮眼 股价走势图 (12) (2) 8 18 28 Aug-24 Dec-24 Apr-25 Aug-25 (%) 贵州茅台 沪深300 资料来源：Wind 经营预测指标与估值 | 华泰研究 | | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 8 月 | 13 日│中国内地 | 饮料 | 目标价(人民币): | 1,945.58 | | | | | | 龚源月 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570520100001 | gongyuanyue@htsc.com | | --- | --- | | SFC No. BQL737 | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | | 宋英男 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570523100004 | songyingnan@htsc.com | 基本数据 | 目标价 (人民币) | 1,945.58 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 8 月 12 日 ...

全球主要股票指数 | 市场 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 欧美 | 道琼斯工业平均 | 44458.61 | 483.52 | 1.10% | | | 纳斯达克 | 21681.9 | 296.5 | 1.39% | | | 标普500 | 6445.76 | 72.31 | 1.13% | | | 欧洲斯托克50 | 5335.97 | 4.12 | 0.08% | | | 英国富时100 | 9147.81 гг. | 1 118.1 | 0.20% | | | 法国CAC40 mahul | | 7753.A2.goguda 24.90 m | 0.71% | | | 德国DAX | 24024.78 | -56.56 | -0.23% | | | 俄罗斯RTS | 1174.23 | 2.15 | 0.18% | | TEH | 上证指数 | 3665.92 | 18.37 | 0.50% | | | 深证成指 | 11351.63 | 60.2 | 0.53% | | | 创业板指 | 2409.4 | 29.58 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported total revenue of 39.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.26%, and a net profit of 18.555 billion yuan, growing 5.25% year-on-year [1][2] - The revenue from Moutai liquor in Q2 2025 was 32.032 billion yuan, up 10.99% year-on-year, while the revenue from series liquor was 6.740 billion yuan, down 6.53% year-on-year [2] - The direct sales channel saw a revenue increase of 16.52% year-on-year, while the wholesale channel grew by 1.48% year-on-year [2] - The company’s gross profit margin in Q2 2025 was 90.42%, slightly down by 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 49.53%, down 1.07 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 94.010 billion yuan, 99.030 billion yuan, and 104.671 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 0.5%, 3.9%, and 6.4% from previous estimates [4] Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 190.035 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.13% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 94.010 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.02% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 74.84 yuan [5] Financial Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 19 for 2025, decreasing to 17 by 2027 [5][14] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 35.97% in 2025, gradually declining to 33.13% by 2027 [5][13] Market Position - The company has demonstrated resilience in maintaining revenue growth despite external challenges such as the "ban on alcohol" policies affecting industry demand [2] - The number of domestic distributors increased to 2,280 by the end of Q2 2025, with a net addition of 160 distributors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector is experiencing a shift in its industry logic and pricing paradigm, leading to a transformation in its product attributes from luxury to fast-moving consumer goods [1] Industry Summary - On August 13, the three major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3683.46 points, up 0.48% - The liquor sector closed at 2230.3 points, with a slight increase of 0.10%, although 10 liquor stocks experienced declines [1] - The report from Guotai Junan Securities indicates that the liquor industry's characteristics are changing, with a focus on market share competition rather than simultaneous volume and price increases [1] Company Summary - Kweichow Moutai closed at 1420.05 CNY per share, down 1.18% - Wuliangye closed at 123.19 CNY per share, unchanged - Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 188.08 CNY per share, up 0.69% - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 125.76 CNY per share, up 0.26% - Yanghe Brewery closed at 68.88 CNY per share, down 0.53% [1] - The report suggests that leading companies in the liquor sector may enter a phase of low-speed growth, with industry profitability stabilizing after a downward trend [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a 9% year-on-year increase in revenue for H1 2025, reaching 893.89 billion yuan, with a net profit of 454.03 billion yuan, also up by 9% [4][9] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 91.30%, attributed to increased volume of kilogram Maotai and higher market investment for the 1935 brand [5] - The revenue from Maotai liquor increased by 10.99% to 320.32 billion yuan in Q2 2025, while series liquor revenue decreased by 6.53% to 67.40 billion yuan [6] - Direct sales revenue grew by 16.52% to 167.89 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with direct sales accounting for 43.30% of total revenue [7] - The company is expected to achieve its annual revenue targets through refined product allocation and optimized distribution structure [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2025 revenue was 893.89 billion yuan, with a net profit of 454.03 billion yuan, both reflecting a 9% increase year-on-year [4] - Q2 2025 revenue was 387.88 billion yuan, with a net profit of 185.55 billion yuan, showing a 7% increase in revenue and a 5% increase in net profit compared to the previous year [4] Product and Sales Analysis - The revenue from Maotai liquor in Q2 2025 was 320.32 billion yuan, up 10.99%, while series liquor revenue was 67.40 billion yuan, down 6.53% [6] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 91.30%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, primarily due to increased kilogram Maotai sales [5] Channel and Market Strategy - Direct sales revenue increased by 16.52% to 167.89 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with direct sales accounting for 43.30% of total revenue [7] - The company is focusing on maintaining healthy channel dynamics while cautiously promoting collection progress [5] Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 74.81, 81.16, and 87.68 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19, 18, and 16 times [9]

Market Performance - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an eight-day winning streak, closing at 3683.46 points, a 0.48% increase [2][3] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.76% to 11551.36 points, while the ChiNext Index surged by 3.62% to 2496.50 points [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 21509 billion, a significant increase of 2694 billion compared to the previous day [2][3] Divergence in Market Sentiment - There is a stark contrast in individual stock performance, with gains and losses being roughly equal, leading to investor confusion and concern about potential corrections [3] - The Shanghai market showed weakness in key sectors such as banking, oil, and coal, with the banking sector experiencing an overall decline of nearly 1% [3][4] Key Stock Performances - Notable stocks in the Shenzhen market included Ningde Times, which rose nearly 4% to around 273 yuan per share, and New Yisheng, which surged by 15.45% to 236 yuan per share [5] - The combined gains of New Yisheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Shenghong Technology contributed significantly to the Shenzhen index, accounting for a total increase of 55.64 points [5] Policy Support and Market Reaction - Recent government measures to support consumer spending through interest subsidies were introduced, indicating a strong intent to stimulate consumption [6] - However, the market's reaction to these measures was muted, with major consumer stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye showing little positive movement [6] Financial Sector Highlights - The financial sector, particularly the securities segment, showed some positive movement, with an overall increase of about 2.1% [7] - Notable performers included Guosheng Financial Holdings, which hit its second consecutive trading limit, and Dongfang Fortune, which saw a trading volume increase to around 20 billion [7] Overall Market Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index is at a four-year high but has not yet reached the 3740-point level from 2021 [8] - The rapid rise of certain stocks raises concerns about potential overextension and the need for caution among investors, especially those chasing high-growth, unprofitable stocks [8]

Market Overview - On August 13, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.76%, the ChiNext Index surged by 3.62%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 0.79% [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, 2,733 stocks rose, accounting for 50.50%, while 2,458 stocks declined [1] Capital Flow - The main capital saw a net outflow of 275 million yuan throughout the day [1] - The ChiNext experienced a net outflow of 716 million yuan, while the STAR Market had a net outflow of 2.058 billion yuan; conversely, the CSI 300 saw a net inflow of 1.019 billion yuan [1] Industry Performance - Out of the 28 primary industries classified by Shenwan, 22 industries saw gains, with the top performers being the communication sector (up 4.91%) and non-ferrous metals (up 2.37%) [1] - The banking and coal industries had the largest declines, with decreases of 1.06% and 0.81%, respectively [1] Industry Capital Inflows - The non-bank financial sector led in net capital inflow, with a total of 4.015 billion yuan and a daily increase of 1.13% [2] - The communication sector followed with a net inflow of 2.655 billion yuan and a daily increase of 4.91% [2] Industry Capital Outflows - The food and beverage sector experienced the largest net outflow, totaling 2.004 billion yuan and a daily decline of 0.42% [2] - The banking sector also saw significant outflows, with a net outflow of 1.852 billion yuan and a decline of 1.06% [2] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 1,952 stocks had net inflows, with 852 stocks seeing inflows exceeding 10 million yuan; 139 stocks had inflows over 100 million yuan [2] - The stock with the highest net inflow was Dongfang Caifu, which rose by 2.46% with a net inflow of 1.835 billion yuan [2] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Huasheng Tiancai, Guizhou Moutai, and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, with outflows of 1.320 billion yuan, 1.028 billion yuan, and 476 million yuan, respectively [2]