天风证券在其研报中指出，本轮白酒板块已经调整约5年，行业目前的估值和机构仓位已经处于历史低 位。在目前股市背景下，股价有可能领先于基本面见底。天风证券认为，目前板块或处于基本面出清的 最后阶段，茅台批价企稳是边际改善的积极信号，板块估值修复或领先于业绩修复。 北京商报讯（记者 刘一博 冯若男）2月9日尾盘，沪指4123.09点上涨1.41%。白酒板块2306.55点收盘上 涨0.95% ，其中14只白酒股上涨，贵州茅台1524.96元/股收盘。 从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1524.96元/股，上涨0.66%；五粮液收盘价达107.36元/股，上涨0.34%； 山西汾酒收盘价174.70元/股，下跌0.23%；泸州老窖收盘价达121.29元/股，下跌1.25%；洋河股份收盘 价达55.66元/股，上涨0.76%。 ...

沪深股通今日合计成交2730.05亿，其中贵州茅台和中际旭创分居沪股通和深股通个股成交额首位。板块主力资金方面，电子板块主力资金净流入居首。 ETF成交方面，多只有色金属相关ETF份额大幅减少，其中有色金属ETF（512400）上周份额大减25.11亿份。龙虎榜方面，AI应用概念股捷成股份今日20cm 涨停，获三家一线游资（国泰海通证券三亚迎宾路、国泰海通证券上海江苏路、国盛证券宁波桑田路）合计买入3.41亿。 一、沪深股通前十大成交 今日沪股通总成交金额为1257.68亿，深股通总成交金额为1472.37亿。 | | 沪股運（ | 2月9日 | ) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 成交金额(亿元) | | 1 | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | | 21.12 | | 2 | 603986 | 兆易创新 | | 18.64 | | 3 | 601899 | 高等业,不 | | 17.62 | | ব | 688256 | 寒武纪 | | 16.76 | | 5 | 601318 | 中国平安 | | 14.75 | | 6 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [4][19]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is entering a phase of rapid performance clearing, with demand expected to show weak recovery as policy pressures ease. The industry is currently at a low valuation, and pessimistic expectations are fully priced in. The direction of industry clearing is becoming clearer, and the bottom is increasingly defined. The control of volume and stable pricing is driving the recovery of wholesale prices, with recent acceleration in the price of mainstream products showing positive signals. Leading liquor companies are increasing dividend ratios, enhancing yield attractiveness. Long-term, it is recommended to focus on high-quality leading companies with strong performance certainty, particularly Guizhou Moutai, which has stable pricing and a solid competitive moat [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry increased by 4.31% in the week of February 2-6, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 1.27%. Among 31 sub-industries, food and beverage ranked first [4][5]. - The sub-sectors within food and beverage, ranked by performance, are as follows: liquor (+5.29%), soft drinks (+4.71%), beer (+4.48%), seasoning and fermented products (+3.81%), dairy (+2.62%), snacks (+1.86%), pre-processed foods (+1.58%), meat products (+1.28%), baked goods (+0.61%), other alcoholic beverages (-0.44%), and health products (-1.36%) [4]. Guizhou Moutai Insights - Online sales data for i Moutai is impressive, with offline sales exceeding expectations, driving up wholesale prices. As of February 2, i Moutai reported over 15.31 million monthly active users, with 6.28 million new users and over 2.12 million orders, of which over 1.43 million were for mainstream products, accounting for about 67% [4]. - The establishment of direct sales channels for i Moutai has effectively shortened the distribution chain, reaching previously underserved C-end consumers, particularly in self-consumption and family consumption. This has systematically released suppressed C-end demand [4]. - The recent performance indicates that Moutai's market-oriented transformation strategy is receiving positive feedback from the market, with the direct sales channel and distribution system achieving initial collaborative success in customer segmentation and service functions [4].

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF (159268) rose by 1.4%, reaching a new high, with net inflows of nearly 50 million yuan over the past five days [1] - The A-share leading consumption ETF (159928) experienced a flat trading day with a total transaction volume exceeding 570 million yuan [3] - Popular constituent stocks such as China Duty Free and Pop Mart saw significant gains, with increases of over 8% and 5% respectively [1][3] Group 2: Consumer Trends and Policies - As the Spring Festival approaches, the A-share consumer sector is becoming more active, with expectations for increased retail in gold, travel, and dining services [5] - A new policy for Hainan Free Trade Port allows residents to purchase imported goods tax-free, enhancing consumer sentiment [5] - The "2026 'Happy Shopping Spring' Special Activity Plan" aims to stimulate consumption across various sectors, including digital and green consumption [5] Group 3: Alcohol and Beverage Industry Insights - The price of Moutai has rebounded, with a recent increase from 1570 yuan to 1610 yuan, reflecting a 2.5% rise [6] - The white liquor sector is showing signs of weak recovery, with expectations for a gradual improvement in demand due to better economic forecasts [6][9] - The beer market is projected to face pressure in 2025, but a mild recovery is anticipated in 2026 due to the growth of non-traditional retail channels [6] Group 4: Food and Beverage Sector Developments - The National Standard for Pre-prepared Dishes is under review, which is expected to enhance the development of the pre-prepared food industry [7][10] - The dairy sector is expected to stabilize, with a potential rebound in milk prices as supply and demand reach a turning point [7] - The snack food segment is experiencing growth, driven by the expansion of discount snack stores and innovations in social e-commerce channels [6][7] Group 5: Livestock and Meat Products - The profitability of self-bred pigs has turned negative, with a 26.4% decline in profits from purchased piglets [8] - Prices for white feather chickens and egg-laying hens have shown slight week-on-week declines [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown a cumulative increase of 4.48% this week, with A-shares rising by 4.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 5.77 percentage points [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with liquor outperforming food and beverages [2]. - Key investment recommendations include leading companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao in the liquor segment, as well as Yili in dairy and Nongfu Spring in beverages [2][3]. Summary by Sections Liquor - The report notes a gradual increase in sales leading up to the Spring Festival, with Kweichow Moutai performing particularly well. It suggests that the overall decline in sales is expected to narrow to around 10% during the festive period [10]. - Investment recommendations include Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with a focus on their growth potential and market recovery [10][11]. Beer - The beer industry is experiencing healthy inventory levels, with expectations for demand recovery. The report recommends Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer as key players to watch [11]. Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of strong alpha stocks in the snack category, particularly focusing on the growth potential of konjac snacks. Leading companies like Wei Long and Yan Jin Pu Zi are highlighted for their innovative product offerings [12][18]. Dairy - The dairy sector is seeing orderly preparations for the Spring Festival, with a recommendation for Yili as a leading company with a favorable valuation margin. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in demand and a potential balance in supply and demand by mid-2026 [14]. Beverages - The beverage segment is primarily focused on inventory reduction during the off-season, with stable preparations for the Spring Festival. The report continues to recommend Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage for their growth strategies [15]. Supply Chain - The report discusses the public consultation on national standards for prepared dishes, which may accelerate the clearing of inefficient suppliers in the industry. Recommendations include leading companies like Yihai International and Haidilao [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][18] Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, driven by several key themes including cost benefits, efficiency improvements, innovation, and potential recovery opportunities in the liquor segment [3][10][11] - The report highlights the ongoing differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with liquor outperforming food and beverages [2][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor - The report indicates that the sales of liquor, particularly high-end brands like Moutai, are showing positive trends as the Spring Festival approaches, with Moutai expected to see double-digit growth [2][10] - Investment recommendations include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, with a focus on brands that are gaining market share despite overall market challenges [2][10][11] Beer - The beer industry is currently managing inventory well and is poised for recovery as demand is expected to improve [11] - Recommended companies include Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer, which are seen as strong players in the market [11] Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the snack sector, particularly those involved in konjac products, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory [12][18] - Key players in this segment include Weidong and Yanjinpuzi, which are noted for their innovative product offerings [12][18] Prepared Dishes - The report discusses the public consultation on national standards for prepared dishes, which may lead to a clearer industry structure and the elimination of less compliant players [13][14] - Recommended companies in this space include Yihai International and Haidilao, which are expected to benefit from improved compliance and operational efficiency [13][14] Dairy Products - The dairy sector is experiencing a steady recovery, with a focus on leading companies like Yili, which are expected to benefit from improved margins and reduced inventory pressures [14][15] - The report suggests that the demand for dairy products will continue to improve, particularly in the second half of 2026 [14][15] Beverages - The beverage sector is currently in a seasonal inventory reduction phase, with stable preparations for the Spring Festival [15] - Companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage are highlighted for their strong operational performance and market expansion strategies [15][16]

2026.02. 09 多位受访酒商告诉记者，一方面今年本身春节时间较晚，春节旺季启动也有所推迟；另一方面，今年 企业团购、家庭消费者等购买行为也更加理性。预计2月10日到除夕前生意仍有一波小高峰，但整体 来看，要超过去年春节同期有难度。 部分机构研报也显示，调研发现2026年1月以来白酒春节备货及动销逐步启动，多数渠道反馈1月至 今总体出货量还是有双位数下滑，区域市场和品牌分化也在加剧，头部品牌收益更多，茅台飞天各地 反馈普遍缺货，五粮液不少区域反馈动销持平。 2025年对于白酒行业无疑是近年来最为困难的一年，从第三季度开始 ，白酒上市公司业绩出现了较 大幅度的滑坡，因此2026年春节白酒企业也加大了促销和渠道支持力度。 本文字数：1077，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 栾立 封图 | 第一财经 任玉明 摄 春节前是白酒的传统旺季，记者从多地酒商处了解到，今年的春节旺季比往年来迟近1个月，酒企今 年也加大了年末的促销力度，通过红包、抽奖希望帮助经销商消化库存。 "今年进了2月才开始有旺季的感觉。"山东淄博酒商李辰告诉记者，往年一般元旦前后酒水销售就有 上升的趋势，但今年元旦后市场一直不温不火，直 ...

智通财经记者 | 张蕊 智通财经编辑 | 任雪松 当山姆的货架将年份与价格的关系变得透明时，传统年份酒经销商长期赖以生存的根基开始动摇。 以往，年份酒的价值流转很大程度上依赖于一个相对封闭的圈层。年份所带来的"时间溢价"，衡量尺度 模糊，价格形成机制复杂。它们多在资深的经销商、特定的收藏家与烟酒行之间流通，交易往往建立在 圈内共识、个人经验与不透明的信息差之上。 如今，这套运行多年的模式正面临前所未有的挑战。首当其冲的，便是价格体系的全面穿透。白酒经销 从业人士张卫华向智通财经感慨，如今客户可以随时随地进行线上比价，线下实体店为了促成交易，有 时甚至不得不在市场整体回调的基础上进一步降价让利，"现在卖一瓶茅台，利润只有几十块钱"。 在近期山姆会员商店里，不少消费者发现，白酒区域的陈列方式已悄然改变：过去主要以风味或系列来 划分的货架，如今被更明确的年份标签重新组织起来。 货架上，一瓶2016年出产的七代经典五粮液标价1099元，一旁的2020年八代则标价949.9元；2023年茅 台1935的售价为每瓶729.9元；2020年国窖1573的售价为每瓶999.9元。这种将不同年份产品并排展示并 明码标价的方式， ...

2025年四季度末，光模块龙头中际旭创以1.28亿股持股总量、782.32亿元持股市值，首次超越宁德时代登顶主动权益基金第一大重仓股，1100多只持仓基金的"抱 团"态势一度成为市场焦点。但登顶仅月余，该股便开启回调模式，截至2月6日，年内累计下跌超10%，单日最大跌幅达8.94%，多只重仓基金净值同步回撤超 5%，再度引发市场对"基金第一重仓股魔咒"热议。 要客观研判"基金第一重仓股魔咒"这一市场现象，需依托长期、大样本的实证数据。基于Wind平台2003年至2025年共92个报告期的统计显示，在成为第一重仓股 后，39只登顶标的在后续3个月跑输沪深300指数，占92个报告期的42.39%；6个月、12个月跑输比例分别为45.65%、46.74%。这一量化结果，为理性分析该现象的 统计规律提供了客观依据。 | | | | 部分主动权益基金第一大重仓股登顶后的市场表现一览 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主动权益基金第一大 重仓股名称 | | 报告期归母净利 润同比增长率 | 报告期后3个月相对于沪深 300指数的涨幅(%) | 报告期后6个月相对于 ...

0 C ( 17 10 7 1 . This : 3 the state of t 2017 本身春节时间较晚，且春节旺季启动也有所推迟。 春节前是白酒的传统旺季，记者从多地酒商处了解到，今年的春节旺季比往年来迟近1个月，酒企今年也加大了年末的促销力度，通过红包、抽奖希望帮助 经销商消化库存。 "今年进了2月才开始有旺季的感觉。"山东淄博酒商李辰告诉记者，往年一般元旦前后酒水销售就有上升的趋势，但今年元旦后市场一直不温不火，直到2月 才开始转旺。中国酒业协会特邀常务理事、福建龙基名久负责人席康也表示，今年春节动销从1月中旬才开始有明显迹象，比往年晚了最少1个月。 2025年对于白酒行业无疑是近年来最为困难的一年，从第三季度开始 ，白酒上市公司业绩出现了较大幅度的滑坡，因此2026年春节白酒企业也加大了促销 和渠道支持力度。 其中汾酒推出"醉美中国年，让热闹更有料"活动，扫码除了获得"扫码红包"外，还可获得"节日红包";国窖1573设立"元旦春节限时三重礼"，大奖为5克足金 金条；洋河则开展"骉福，马力全开"活动，扫码得现金红包并附赠抽奖机会；青花郎举办"开盖扫码迎新春"活动，头奖包含红运郎、青花郎等产品。 在 ...