继续进攻有色。 作者 | 市值风云基金研究部 编辑 | 小白 2025年第四季度，A股市场呈现震荡分化格局，主要宽基指数表现不一，而港股市场则出现明显回 调。 在此背景下，主动偏股型公募基金进行了一系列显著的仓位调整和结构优化，值得各位关注。 整体仓位高位微降，港股大撤退 2025年四季度末，主动偏股型基金持有的股票总市值约为3.39万亿元，较三季度末减少0.19万亿元。 其中，投资于A股的市值为2.91万亿元，环比减少0.08万亿元。这一变化导致基金的整体股票仓位由 三季度末的85.62%下降1.4个百分点至84.22%。 尽管有所回落，但超过84%的仓位水平仍处于2005年以来的历史高位区间，表明公募基金对权益市场 的整体配置意愿依然强烈。 值得注意的是，港股市场的配置比例出现显著下滑，普通股票型基金和偏股混合型基金的港股仓位分 别下滑了1.1和2.54个百分点，为11.89%和14.56%。 （来源：国信证券研究所） 这反映出在四季度港股市场表现疲软的背景下，基金经理更倾向于将资金集中于资金面、想象力都更 好的A股市场。 A股持仓结构剧变：周期风格崛起，科技与消费承压 四季度公募基金在A股内部的调仓换股 ...

1月27日，贵州茅台大宗交易成交1.79万股，成交额2403.99万元，占当日总成交额的0.37%，成交价1343.01元，较市场收盘价1343.01元持平。 | 交易日期 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) | 成交金额(万元) 成交量( * ) 买入营业部 | | 卖出营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-27 | 贵州茅台 | 200519 | 1343.01 | 2121.96 1.58 | 中信证券股份有限 公司总部(非营业 | 公司广州设计具 | | 2026-01-27 | 贵州茅台 | 600510 | 1343.01 | 282.03 0.21 | 中信证券股份有限 公司总部借鉴于 | 广发证券股份有限 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector, particularly the baijiu segment, has experienced a significant decline, with most stocks falling, while only Kweichow Moutai showed a slight increase [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 27, the baijiu sector saw a collective drop, with 20 constituent stocks, where only Kweichow Moutai managed a slight gain, while major stocks like Yanghe and Wuliangye fell by approximately 3.6% and over 1% respectively [1][4]. - The China Securities Baijiu Index has retreated nearly 8.21% over the past 11 trading days, reaching a low of 8293.16 points, which is close to its previous low of 8251.41 points recorded on September 18, 2024 [4][5]. - Year-to-date, the baijiu sector has declined by approximately 5.03%, marking a continuous annual decline for six consecutive years from 2021 to 2026 [4][5]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Among the 20 baijiu stocks, the average decline over the past 11 trading days was about 8.5%, with a median drop of 6.6%. Six stocks experienced declines exceeding 10%, accounting for nearly 30% of the sector [4][5]. - Kweichow Moutai, the largest stock by market capitalization, saw a financing net purchase of 3.166 billion yuan, while Shanxi Fenjiu and Wuliangye had net purchases of 251 million yuan and 117 million yuan respectively [5][6]. Group 3: Financing and Valuation - The baijiu sector has seen some stocks increase in financing balance, particularly the top three weighted stocks, with Kweichow Moutai reaching its highest financing balance since September 2024 [5][6]. - The average price of baijiu stocks is currently around 111.58 yuan, which has been surpassed by the semiconductor sector's average price of 112.12 yuan for the first time in six years [8][11]. - Only semiconductor, baijiu, and medical beauty sectors have an average stock price above 100 yuan, with baijiu stocks maintaining a significant presence in the high-price stock category [8][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - Scale: The growth of passive index funds has slowed down. As of the end of Q4 2025, there were 7,583 equity funds (excluding ETF-linked funds and FOF funds) in the market, an increase of 294 from Q3 2025. The total scale of all equity funds was RMB 9,457.212 billion, a decrease of RMB 27.704 billion from the previous quarter. Passive index funds had the largest increase in both quantity and scale [3]. - Position: The positions of active equity funds decreased slightly. In terms of arithmetic average and stock market value weighted average position levels, the positions of active equity funds decreased by 1.13 pct. and 0.91 pct. respectively. Specifically, the funds with the largest position decreases were partial equity hybrid funds and flexible allocation funds [3]. - Sector distribution and allocation: There was a significant reduction in the allocation to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and an increase in the allocation to the Main Board. In Q4 2025, the total scale of all top ten heavy - held stocks decreased by RMB 67.305 billion compared with the previous quarter. Among them, the scale of the Main Board increased, while the scales of the other sectors decreased. Compared with the allocation ratio of the total A - share floating market value among sectors, active equity funds continued to under - allocate the Main Board and over - allocate the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market in Q4. Specifically, the under - allocation ratio of the Main Board was - 20.51%, and the over - allocation ratios of the Growth Enterprise Market and the Science and Technology Innovation Board were 13.50% and 7.00% respectively. The under - allocation ratio of the Main Board and the over - allocation ratio of the Science and Technology Innovation Board both narrowed slightly quarter - on - quarter [3]. - Industry allocation: In Q4, the top five industries with an increase in the proportion of holding market value were non - ferrous metals, communication, household appliances, environmental protection, and non - bank finance; the top five industries with a decrease in the proportion of holding market value were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, media, banking, and machinery [3]. - Heavy - held individual stocks: The total market value of active equity funds' holdings of CATL was RMB 181.5 billion, ranking first. The top five stocks in terms of holding market value were CATL, Zhongji Innolight, New Fiber Optic, Kweichow Moutai, and Zijin Mining. Compared with the previous quarter, Tencent Holdings dropped out of the top 5, and Zijin Mining entered the top 5 [3]. - Total shareholding: Stocks such as Foxconn Industrial Internet were reduced, while stocks such as Industrial Bank were increased. In Q4, Industrial Bank, Ping An of China, Meituan - W, Tuojing Technology, and Dongshan Precision had the highest increase in total shareholding. In contrast, Foxconn Industrial Internet, East Money, Alibaba - W, EVE Energy, and CATL had the highest reduction in total shareholding [3]. - Central Huijin ETF holdings: According to the holder data disclosed in the Q4 2025 public fund regular reports, as of the end of Q4 2025, the shareholdings of Central Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. and Central Huijin Asset Management Co., Ltd. in most broad - based and industry - specific ETFs remained stable. Only in some industry - themed ETFs were there small redemption actions observed: the special plan managed by Huijin Asset Management redeemed 16 million shares of the automobile ETF and 338 million shares of the electronics ETF under China Asset Management in Q4 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Equity Fund Scale, Position, and Sector Distribution - **1.1 Passive index fund quantity and scale growth slow down, active equity fund positions decrease slightly**: As of the end of Q4 2025, there were 7,583 equity funds (excluding ETF - linked funds and FOF funds) in the market, an increase of 294 from Q3 2025. The total scale of all equity funds was RMB 9,457.212 billion, a decrease of RMB 27.704 billion from the previous quarter. Passive index funds had the largest increase in both quantity and scale. In Q4 2025, the positions of active equity funds decreased slightly. The arithmetic average and stock market value weighted average position levels decreased by 1.13 pct. and 0.91 pct. respectively. The funds with the largest position decreases were partial equity hybrid funds and flexible allocation funds [10][12]. - **1.2 Significant reduction in the allocation to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and an increase in the allocation to the Main Board**: In Q4 2025, the total scale of all top ten heavy - held stocks decreased by RMB 67.305 billion compared with the previous quarter. Among them, the scale of the Main Board increased, while the scales of the other sectors decreased. The allocation ratio of the Main Board increased by 2.14 pct. quarter - on - quarter, and the allocation ratio of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange decreased by 1.54 pct. quarter - on - quarter. Compared with the allocation ratio of the total A - share floating market value among sectors, active equity funds continued to under - allocate the Main Board and over - allocate the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market in Q4. The under - allocation ratio of the Main Board was - 20.51%, and the over - allocation ratios of the Growth Enterprise Market and the Science and Technology Innovation Board were 13.50% and 7.00% respectively. The under - allocation ratio of the Main Board and the over - allocation ratio of the Science and Technology Innovation Board both narrowed slightly quarter - on - quarter [15][16]. 2. Industry Allocation - **2.1 Heavy - held A - share industry distribution**: In Q4 2025, the top ten heavy - held industries of active equity funds were electronics, non - ferrous metals, power equipment, communication, computer, machinery, automobile, non - bank finance, pharmaceutical biology, and household appliances. Compared with Q3 2025, the rankings of non - ferrous metals and other industries increased significantly, while the ranking of pharmaceutical biology decreased significantly. In Q4, the top five industries with an increase in the proportion of holding market value were non - ferrous metals, communication, household appliances, environmental protection, and non - bank finance; the top five industries with a decrease in the proportion of holding market value were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, media, banking, and machinery [22][24]. - **2.2 Heavy - held A - share active allocation**: Compared with the weights of CSI 300 constituent stocks, in Q4, active equity funds' heavy - held A - shares maintained a relatively high over - allocation ratio in industries such as electronics, non - ferrous metals, and power equipment. The over - allocation ratio of electronics was 7.31%, that of non - ferrous metals was 4.10%, and that of power equipment was 2.05%. Industries such as banking, non - bank finance, and food and beverage were still under - allocated. The under - allocation ratio of banking was - 9.62%, that of non - bank finance was - 6.44%, and that of food and beverage was - 4.12%. Compared with Q3, the over - allocation ratio of non - ferrous metals increased significantly, while the over - allocation ratio of electronics decreased significantly [28]. 3. Heavy - Held Stock Situation - **3.1 Tencent Holdings drops out of the top 5, Zijin Mining enters the top 5**: Among the top 20 heavy - held stocks by market value, the total market value of active equity funds' holdings of CATL was RMB 181.5 billion, ranking first. The top five stocks in terms of holding market value were CATL, Zhongji Innolight, New Fiber Optic, Kweichow Moutai, and Zijin Mining. Compared with the previous quarter, Tencent Holdings dropped out of the top 5, and Zijin Mining entered the top 5. In terms of the number of funds with positions, the top five stocks with the most positions in Q4 were CATL, Zhongji Innolight, Zijin Mining, New Fiber Optic, and Tencent Holdings. Among them, 2,043 active equity funds held positions in CATL. Compared with the previous quarter, Zhongji Innolight's ranking rose by 2 places, and Tencent Holdings' ranking dropped by 2 places [31][33]. - **3.2 Stocks such as Foxconn Industrial Internet are reduced, while Industrial Bank is increased**: From the perspective of the change in the total amount of heavy - held stocks held by active equity funds, in Q4, Industrial Bank, Ping An of China, Meituan - W, Tuojing Technology, and Dongshan Precision had the highest increase in total shareholding. In contrast, Foxconn Industrial Internet, East Money, Alibaba - W, EVE Energy, and CATL had the highest reduction in total shareholding [35]. 4. Central Huijin ETF Holdings As of the end of Q4 2025, the shareholdings of Central Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. and Central Huijin Asset Management Co., Ltd. in most broad - based and industry - specific ETFs remained stable. Only in some industry - themed ETFs were there small redemption actions observed: the special plan managed by Huijin Asset Management redeemed 16 million shares of the automobile ETF and 338 million shares of the electronics ETF under China Asset Management in Q4 [37].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of industry cycles over individual company performance in the Chinese liquor market, particularly during periods of economic downturns, where even strong companies face significant declines due to systemic pressures [7][11][35]. Group 1: Industry Performance Overview - The period from 2013 to 2021 was characterized as a "golden era" for the liquor industry, with major brands like Kweichow Moutai increasing by 1297%, Shanxi Fenjiu by 1090%, and Wuliangye by 860% [13][15]. - In contrast, the period from 2022 to 2026 is described as a "deep adjustment period," where major brands have seen significant declines, with Luzhou Laojiao down 49%, Wuliangye down 46%, and Kweichow Moutai down 26% [20][22]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on industry cycles when selecting stocks, prioritizing companies with strong demand resilience during downturns, such as Kweichow Moutai, or those with low valuations, like Gujing Gongjiu B [29][30]. - The article warns against relying on company-specific factors (alpha) to counteract industry-wide trends (beta), as strong financials or management integrity may not protect against systemic downturns [31][32]. Group 3: Historical Context and Lessons - The article highlights that past star stocks, such as Yanghe and Shui Jing Fang, which performed well during the boom, have suffered even greater declines in the current downturn, illustrating that past performance does not guarantee future resilience [33][34]. - The cyclical nature of the industry is underscored, with the assertion that understanding the primary conflict between industry cycles and individual company performance is crucial for avoiding investment pitfalls [35].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.56% on January 27, with *ST Rock leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09% [1]. Group 1: Liquor Sector Performance - The closing prices and performance of key liquor stocks showed mixed results, with Kweichow Moutai slightly up by 0.08% at 1343.01, while several others like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao saw declines of 1.29% and 0.06% respectively [1]. - The total trading volume for Kweichow Moutai was 48,400 hands, with a transaction value of 6.515 billion yuan, while Wuliangye had a trading volume of 225,300 hands and a transaction value of 2.284 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 386 million yuan from institutional investors and 289 million yuan from retail investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 675 million yuan [2]. - Specific stocks like Kweichow Moutai experienced a net inflow of 39.8 million yuan from institutional investors, while *ST Rock had a net outflow of 68,400 yuan [3]. Group 3: ETF Performance - The Food and Beverage ETF (product code: 515170) tracked the sub-index of the food and beverage industry, showing a decline of 2.01% over the past five days, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.31 times [5]. - The Consumer ETF (product code: 510630) tracked the main consumer industry index, with a decline of 1.52% over the past five days and a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.22 times [6].

Core Viewpoint - The latest public fund top ten heavy positions show a shift towards AI, technology, and new energy, while Guizhou Moutai remains the only traditional consumer stock in the top ten [1] Group 1: Changes in Fund Holdings - Public funds are increasingly favoring AI, technology, and new energy sectors, indicating a diversification in investment strategies [1] - Guizhou Moutai continues to be a stronghold in the portfolios of many funds, reflecting a persistent interest in traditional consumer stocks despite the overall trend [1] Group 2: Performance of Guizhou Moutai - By the end of 2025, Guizhou Moutai is the only traditional consumer stock among the top ten holdings of active equity funds, with the remaining nine being tech and new energy companies [1] - As of the end of 2025, 1,048 funds held Guizhou Moutai, with a total market value of 118.203 billion yuan, ranking fourth among the top ten heavy positions [1] Group 3: Long-term Commitment to Guizhou Moutai - Among nearly 300 funds holding Moutai, four funds have a holding value exceeding 1 billion yuan, collectively over 7 billion yuan [2] - Funds like E Fund Blue Chip Select and Invesco Great Wall New Growth have maintained positions in Guizhou Moutai for 29 and 36 consecutive quarters, respectively, indicating strong confidence in its business model and profitability [2]

Market Overview - On January 27, A-shares saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.71%. The Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index increased by 1.72% [1][2]. Sector Performance - The gold sector experienced gains, while the semiconductor and AI computing industry chains showed strength, particularly in memory and CPO directions [4]. - The semiconductor sector saw significant increases, with stocks such as Dongxin Co., Shengke Communication-U, and Kangqiang Electronics hitting the daily limit [5]. Notable Stock Movements - Specific stocks that performed well include: - Dongxin Co. (688110) +20.00% at 153.23 - Shengke Communication-U (688702) +20.00% at 162.53 - Mingwei Electronics (688699) +16.67% at 63.68 - Nongsun Co. (688766) +14.85% at 255.23 - Hengle Co. (688416) +14.37% at 93.60 [6]. Declines in Other Sectors - The pharmaceutical retail sector faced adjustments, with stocks such as Shuyupingmin down over 8%, Dajia Weikang down over 8%, and Huaren Health down over 8% [7]. Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.89 trillion yuan, a decrease of 353.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with over 3,400 stocks declining [8]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in sectors such as electronics, communications, machinery equipment, national defense, and non-ferrous metals, while there were outflows from power equipment, non-bank financials, pharmaceutical biology, food and beverage, and public utilities [9]. - Notable net inflows included: - Zhongji Xuchuang +3.413 billion yuan - Tianfu Communication +2.088 billion yuan - Dongxin Co. +2.005 billion yuan [10]. Analyst Insights - Huaxi Securities suggests that the "slow bull" trend in A-shares is likely to continue - CITIC Securities maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry trend, particularly in the optical communication sector - Huatai Securities indicates that oil prices may have entered a bottoming phase [11].

Market Overview - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.89 trillion yuan, a decrease of 353.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [4]. - On January 27, all three major A-share indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.71% [1]. Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector showed significant strength, with stocks like Dongxin Technology and Shengke Communication hitting the daily limit, both up by 20% [3]. - The AI computing industry chain also performed well, alongside gains in the storage and CPO sectors [2]. - Conversely, the coal, pharmaceutical retail, and commercial sectors experienced notable declines [2]. Individual Stock Movements - Notable gainers included Dongxin Technology (+20.00% to 153.23 yuan) and Shengke Communication (+20.00% to 162.53 yuan) [3]. - In the pharmaceutical sector, stocks such as Shuyuan Pingmin and Dajia Weikang saw declines exceeding 8% [4]. Fund Flow - Main funds saw a net inflow into sectors such as electronics, communications, machinery, defense, and non-ferrous metals, while experiencing net outflows from power equipment, non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and public utilities [6]. - Specific stocks with significant net inflows included Zhongji Xuchuang (34.13 billion yuan), Tianfu Communication (20.88 billion yuan), and Dongxin Technology (20.05 billion yuan) [7]. - Conversely, stocks like Ningde Times, Kweichow Moutai, and Cambrian Technologies faced net outflows of 10.11 billion yuan, 9.65 billion yuan, and 8.95 billion yuan, respectively [8]. Analyst Insights - Huaxi Securities suggests that the "slow bull" trend in A-shares is likely to continue [10]. - CITIC Securities expresses a clear outlook on the AI industry trend, maintaining a positive view on the optical communication sector [10]. - Huatai Securities indicates that oil prices may have entered a phase of bottoming and rebound [10].

股市风云变幻，众生百态尽显。近日，贵州茅台股价与火热的市场行情背道而驰，形成鲜明对比，引发不 少争议。有人开始质疑价值投资，甚至嘲讽投资大佬段永平。然而，这种简单粗暴的情绪化反应，恰恰暴 露了投资的短视与浮躁。 让我们试着站在段永平的角度思考。拥有超过1800亿人民币身家的他，早已实现了财富自由。对于他来 说，投资早已不是为了快速致富，而是为了财富的保值增值，追求的是长期的确定性，而非短期的高收 益。正如俗话所说，"慢就是快"，稳健才是王道。 更何况，贵州茅台在新掌门陈华的带领下，正积极进行渠道改革，展现出新的增长潜力。对于段永平来 说，此时的茅台更像是一支兼具进攻性的价值股，如同当年200多元的腾讯，极具吸引力。 然而，对于手中只有几万元的散户来说，茅台可能并不是一个理想的选择。一方面，资金量太小，难以配 置较多的茅台股票；另一方面，即使茅台未来翻倍，也难以改变他们的财务状况。他们更渴望的是一夜暴 富的机会，追求的是短期的高收益率，因此往往会选择风险更高的投资标的。 投资策略的选择，取决于投资者的自身情况和风险偏好。对于段永平来说，高确定性远比高收益更重要； 而对于追求快速致富的散户来说，高收益率才是他们的 ...