Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][26] Core Views - The sector experienced a rebound of 2.3% this week, primarily due to a systematic market rebound, although the fundamental feedback remains subdued [4][9] - The liquor sector has seen a relatively smooth landing during the Spring Festival, but it is now entering a low season with both demand and inventory under pressure, making it unlikely for the fundamentals to improve significantly [4][6] - The consumer goods sector continues to recover, with policies like "consumption vouchers" in cities like Shanghai potentially benefiting the restaurant supply chain [4][6] - The overall sector may lack short-term catalysts and is expected to remain relatively weak, but there is potential for gradual improvement throughout the year [4][6] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The Spring Festival sales were relatively stable, but the industry is now entering a low season with weak demand, leading manufacturers to control supply and maintain prices [6] - The price of Moutai remains stable at around 2250 yuan per bottle, while Wuliangye is around 930 yuan per bottle [11] - The sector's fundamentals are becoming less influential on market trends, with a growing sensitivity to macroeconomic policies and capital changes [6] Consumer Goods Sector - The introduction of "consumption vouchers" in Shanghai is expected to have a marginally positive impact on consumer goods [6] - Sales during the Spring Festival showed a slight recovery, particularly in condiments and snacks, although overall performance remains relatively weak [6] - Raw material prices, such as milk and sugar, are on a downward trend, which is favorable for profit margins [6][17] Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Tianwei Food, Anjui Food, Yili, Haitian Flavoring, Qianwei Central Kitchen, and Yanjing Beer [4][6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [7] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown a recovery with a weekly increase of 1.77%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which decreased by 2.22% [25] - The liquor segment is expected to see valuation recovery as major companies focus on channel optimization and marketing strategies ahead of the upcoming political meetings [2][13] - The beer and beverage sectors are anticipated to benefit from improved consumer demand in 2025, driven by promotional policies and a recovery in the restaurant and nightlife sectors [3][14] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector saw a weekly increase of 1.77%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.22%. Specific segments included: - Liquor: +1.64% - Dairy: +3.00% - Meat products: +3.52% - Pre-processed foods: +2.37% - Other alcoholic beverages: +0.59% - Beer: +2.84% - Soft drinks: +2.42% - Snacks: +4.30% [25] White Liquor Insights - The white liquor segment increased by 1.64%, with companies like Jiuziyuan and Yingjia Gongjiu showing significant gains. The current valuation is considered reasonable and low, with a PE-TTM of 19.50X [2][13] - Major liquor companies are focusing on channel management and marketing to rebuild confidence in the market, especially as the political meetings approach [2][13] Beer and Beverage Insights - The beer segment increased by 2.84%, with Budweiser Asia announcing a 7% increase in dividends and a management change. The Chinese market for Budweiser is projected to decline by 11.8% in 2024, but strategies are being implemented to enhance market share [3][15] - The beverage sector, including brands like China Red Bull, reported a slight revenue increase of 1.3% in 2024, reaching 21.09 billion yuan [3][17] Consumer Goods Insights - The snack segment led the market with a notable increase, while dairy products also performed well with a 3.00% rise. The report emphasizes three investment themes: "restaurant supply," "overseas expansion," and "raw milk turning point" [3][16] - The overall consumer goods sector is expected to benefit from lower inventory levels and seasonal demand as the market recovers [5][24] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include leading liquor brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as consumer goods companies like Yili and Mengniu in the dairy sector [5][24] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations, particularly in the consumer goods sector, which is expected to show strong elasticity in 2025 [5][24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong sales performance during the 2025 Spring Festival, benefiting from a diverse product range and a nationwide expansion strategy. The innovative marketing efforts targeting younger demographics have also been noteworthy [8] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product structure in the domestic market while expanding its presence in external markets. The aim is to maintain stable growth and improve sales quality [8] - The long-term growth potential of the company is becoming clearer, with adjustments made to profit forecasts for 2024-2026, reflecting a commitment to quality over speed in growth [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 31,928 million RMB in 2023 to 46,239 million RMB in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.06% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 10,438 million RMB in 2023 to 15,486 million RMB in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 15.75% [1] - The latest diluted earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 8.56 RMB in 2023 to 12.69 RMB in 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1] Market Positioning - The company is enhancing its brand presence through strategic marketing initiatives, including collaborations with e-commerce platforms and social media campaigns, which have significantly increased brand visibility [8] - The company is also focusing on product innovation and upgrading existing products to cater to a broader audience, particularly in the mid-range segment [8] - The company aims to achieve a market share of nearly 80% in its home province while expanding its market presence in other regions [8]

证券代码：600809 证券简称：山西汾酒 公告编号：临 2025-004 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司股东 减持股份结果公告 本公司董事会、全体董事及相关股东保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 大股东持股的基本情况 本次减持计划实施前，华创鑫睿（香港）有限公司（以下简称"华创鑫睿"） 持有公司股份 134,414,296 股，占公司总股本的比例为 11.02%，为公司持股 5% 以上股东。其中：华润创业有限公司（以下简称"华润创业"）间接持有公司 111,913,697 股；华润创业联和基金一期(有限合伙)(以下简称"联和基金")间 接持有公司 22,500,599 股。 减持计划的实施结果情况 2024 年 11 月 30 日，公司披露了《关于股东通过大宗交易方式转让股份计 划的公告》（公告编号：临 2024-030），华创鑫睿计划以大宗交易方式减持公 司股份合计不超过 6,300,000 股，即不超过公司总股本的 0.52%。 近日，公司收到华创鑫睿出具的《股份减持计划实施完毕告知函》，华创鑫 睿于 2024 年 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Involved - **Company**: Alibaba Group - **Industry**: E-commerce and Cloud Services Key Points and Arguments E-commerce Industry Maturity - The e-commerce industry has entered a relatively mature stage characterized by an oligopoly, with growth rates set at low levels. Market shares among platforms are fluctuating, and platforms are focusing on both GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) and monetization rates. Despite intense competition, the market is becoming more rational [2][3] AI and Cloud Business Growth - The intelligent cloud business is expected to benefit from the rapid advancement of AI technologies. Data from North American cloud service providers indicate that revenue growth is accelerating alongside the AI industry's development [2][4] Alibaba's Market Position - Alibaba holds the largest market share in public cloud services in China and possesses advanced AI model capabilities, which are expected to drive significant growth in its intelligent cloud business [3][4] Unique Perspectives on Revenue Growth - The analysis presents a unique viewpoint on Alibaba's revenue growth, focusing on improvements in core membership and the diminishing traffic benefits from platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou. The assessment also reviews the past performance of key figures in Alibaba's e-commerce division [3][4] Strategic Focus and Stability - Alibaba has undergone multiple organizational reforms, establishing a strategic focus on e-commerce, cloud services, and logistics. This focus has led to improved operations, attracting merchants back and retaining core users, resulting in stable revenue and profit growth [4][5] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Alibaba for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 are estimated at CNY 997.2 billion, CNY 1,068.6 billion, and CNY 1,014.73 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 6%, 7%, and 7% respectively. Projected net profits for the same period are CNY 145 billion, CNY 156 billion, and CNY 183.2 billion, with growth rates of 82%, 13%, and 11% respectively. The target price based on DCF valuation is set at HKD 1,330.94 per share, maintaining a buy rating [6] Risk Factors - Key risks include the potential for unexpected advancements in WeChat's e-commerce business, higher-than-expected capital expenditures, and risks associated with policy changes [7] Additional Important Insights - The conference also touched on the broader market context, including the performance of convertible bonds and the implications of risk appetite among investors. The discussion highlighted the shift towards high-elasticity products and the performance of technology growth sectors [8][10] - The analysis of the Shanxi Fenjiu liquor market indicated a national expansion phase, with increasing numbers of distributors and a focus on product line diversification to capture market share [15][16][19] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, focusing on Alibaba's strategic positioning, market dynamics, financial outlook, and associated risks.

作者 | RAYYYY 编辑 | 小白 随着公募基金2024年四季报进入密集披露期，顶流基金经理的调仓路径和投资思路也浮出水面。 Choice数据显示，四季报期间，上证指数上涨0.4%，沪深300指数下跌2.1%，创业板指数下跌1.5%， 恒生指数下跌5.1%，恒生中国企业指数下跌2.9%。 在四季度，股市整体呈现抗压态势，多头与空头交锋激烈，振幅较大，以上证指数为例，整体振幅高 达15.6%。 （来源：Choice数据） 因此风云君认为本次四季报中的业绩展示和调仓路径更能展示基金经理们的抗压能力及盈利思路，也 是其综合能力的体现。 接下来将对张坤、傅鹏博、李晓星等顶流基金经理的四季报进行研究。 管理规模继续缩水。 张坤：尝试在新领域中捕获盈利 1月21日，顶流基金经理张坤掌管的易方达蓝筹精选混合（005827.OF）、易方达优质企业三年持有 （009342.OF）、易方达优质精选混合（QDII）（110011.OF）、易方达亚洲精选股票（QDII）（118 001.OF）四只基金披露了2024年四季报。 从基金收益看，张坤掌管的4只基金在2024年四季度没有实现正收益，基金份额净值增长率从-6.6% 到-9 ...

证券代码：600809 证券简称：山西汾酒 公告编号：临 2025-003 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司 2024 年中期权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利 2.46 元 相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2025/1/23 | － | 2025/1/24 | 2025/1/24 | 差异化分红送转： 否 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司 2025 年 1 月 9 日的 2025 年第一次临时股东大会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分 公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 3. 分配方案： 本次利润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本1,219,964,222股为基数，每股派发现金红利2.4 ...

证券代码：600809 证券简称：山西汾酒 公告编号：临 2025-002 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司 第八届董事会第六十四次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记 载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完 整性承担法律责任。 董事会 2025 年 1 月 10 日 1 会议同意公司通过汾酒公益基金会向西藏自治区地震灾区捐款1000 万元。 同意票8票，反对票0票，弃权票0票。 特此公告 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司 一、董事会会议召开情况 2025年1月9日，山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"） 以直接送达或电子邮件的方式，向全体董事发出召开第八届董事会第六 十四次会议（以下简称"会议"）的通知，发出会议通知前全体董事一致 同意豁免了提前通知的要求。会议于2025年1月9日以会签方式召开，应出 席董事8人，实际出席董事8人。会议的召开、表决程序符合《公司法》、 公司《章程》和《董事会议事规则》的规定，合法有效。 二、董事会会议审议情况 审议通过《关于向西藏自治区地震灾区捐款1000万元的议案》； ...

证券代码：600809 证券简称：山西汾酒 公告编号：临 2025-001 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司 2025 年第一次临时股东大会决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 表决情况： | 股东类型 | 同意 | | 反对 | | 弃权 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 票数 | 比例（%） | 票数 | 比例 | 票数 | 比例 | | | | | | （%） | | （%） | | A 股 | 974,712,492 | 99.9816 | 151,360 | 0.0155 | 27,900 | 0.0029 | (四) 表决方式是否符合《公司法》及《公司章程》的规定，大会主持情况等。 本次会议由公司董事会召集，会议由公司董事长袁清茂先生主持，会议的召 开符合《公司法》及《公司章程》的规定。 (五) 公司董事、监事和董事会秘书的出席情况 (一) 股东大会召开的时间：2025 年 1 月 9 日 (二) 股东大会召开的地 ...

山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司 2025年第一次临时股东大会 法律意见书 恒一律师 晋源区长兴南街 8号 1 幢 11 层办公 1101 号、1108 号 邮编：030012 电话:(0351) 7555621 传真:(0351) 7555621 电子信箱:shanxihengyi@163.com 网址: http://www.shanxihengyi.com 关 于 山西恒一律师事务所 Shanxi Hengyi Law Office 中国·太原 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司 2025 年第一次临时股东大会的 法 律 意 见 书 致:山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司 山西恒一律师事务所(以下简称"本所")接受贵公司的委托,指派王莹、张 萌律师出席贵公司 2025年第一次临时股东大会(以下简称本次股东大会),并 依据《中华人民共和国公司法》(以下简称《公司法》)、《上市公司股东大会 规则》(以下简称《股东大会规则》)以及《山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司章 程》(以下简称《公司章程》)的有关规定,就贵公司本次股东大会的召集、召 开程序、出席会议人员资格和召集人资格、会议表决程序和表决结果等有关事项 出具法律意见。 本所 ...