超配（维持） 食品饮料行业双周报（2025/02/28-2025/03/13） 行 食品饮料行业 2025 年 3 月 14 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 两会积极定调，关注需求复苏进程 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 研 究 业 周 报 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 资料来源：同花顺,东莞证券研究所 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 行情回顾：2025年2月28日-2025年3月13日，SW食品饮料行业指数整体 上涨1.62%，板块涨幅位居申万一级行业第十位，跑赢同期沪深300指数 约3.05个百分点。 ◼ 行业周观点：两会积极定调，关注需求复苏进程。今年政府工作报告提 出，要大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求。此外，国 务院新闻办公室将于2025年3月17日下午3时举行新闻发布会，请有关 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the liquor industry, consistent with the previous rating [4][8]. Core Viewpoints - The essence of the 2025 liquor strategy is to focus on market share logic, indicating a shift from price concentration to volume concentration, with individual stock excess returns stemming from the ability to gain market share [2][10]. - Short-term stock price movements have largely reflected market pessimism, and with a recovery in policy expectations, the valuation of the liquor sector is expected to continue to recover [6][8]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests an "Overweight" position, highlighting companies that have demonstrated strong market share logic, such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Jiuziyuan, and Yingjia Gongjiu. It also identifies leading companies with potential for market share growth, including Wuliangye, Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu, among others [6][8]. Individual Stock Performance - The excess returns of liquor stocks are fundamentally driven by market share logic, with companies achieving sustained share increases in their respective regions and price segments [10][12]. - Specific observations include: - Su liquor brands like Jiuziyuan have shown significant market share increases in regions such as Jiangsu and Anhui [11]. - Anhui liquor brands like Yingjia and Gujing are entering a phase of market share competition, with notable performance in key markets [12]. - Shanxi Fenjiu has demonstrated significant national market share growth, particularly in the Shandong and Henan markets [12]. Market Share Logic - Companies that exhibit strong market share logic typically share common traits, such as having products in the early stages of their lifecycle and benefiting from scale effects [13]. - The differences in market share logic among individual stocks are influenced by channel dynamics and brand strength, with some brands still in the process of channel development [13][14]. Industry Dynamics - The liquor industry is currently transitioning through three phases: total expansion, structural growth, and now a focus on volume concentration following a period of inventory adjustment [14]. - The report emphasizes that leading companies can achieve higher performance certainty through increased concentration, as evidenced by Moutai's successful strategy of trading price for volume [14].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3,413.98 points, marking a year-to-date increase of 1.86% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 55.25 points, or 1.65%, with a trading volume of 452.5 billion [2]. - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 221.31 points, or 2.06%, with a trading volume of 616.2 billion [2]. - The North Star 50 Index saw a rise of 33.84 points, or 2.48%, with a trading volume of 29.7 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 34.93% [2]. Group 2: Financial Policies and Support - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has developed an action plan with 16 specific measures to enhance financial services for "hard technology" enterprises, focusing on supporting key technological breakthroughs [3]. - The implementation opinions aim to optimize financial services for technology enterprises throughout their lifecycle, promoting green, inclusive, pension, and digital finance reforms [4]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will formulate detailed plans to ensure the effective implementation of these policies, which are expected to boost market confidence and support the technology and green sectors [4]. Group 3: Consumer Sector Strength - The consumer sector is showing strong performance, particularly in soft drinks, alcohol, and food industries, with the CSI Food and Beverage Index rising over 4% [6]. - Major stocks in the beverage sector, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye, have seen significant increases, with Luzhou Laojiao rising over 6% [6]. - The optimism surrounding consumer recovery is supported by government policies aimed at stimulating consumption, which is expected to benefit the food and beverage sector as the economy improves [7]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Citigroup has upgraded its rating on Chinese stocks to "overweight," citing the strength of the Chinese technology sector and government support, despite the recent market rally [9]. - The report indicates that even after the market's rise, Chinese stocks remain attractive due to low valuations and strong government backing for the technology industry [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, suggesting a focus on optional consumption and service consumption price performance, particularly in the context of the recent recovery in trading sentiment [1][7]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a gradual decline in its economic climate, with expectations hinging on actual consumption performance validating recent policy implementations [1][7]. - The report highlights that the price stability of premium liquor, particularly the slight recovery in the price of Feitian Moutai, is positively impacting channel profits and asset expectations [1][8]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming performance period will primarily focus on clearing inventory, with expectations for improved feedback from channels and liquor companies as the spring festival approaches [8]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector's PE-TTM is approximately 20X, positioned at the 13th percentile over the past three years and the 8th percentile over the past five years, indicating it is still in a cyclical bottom range [2][8]. - The report suggests focusing on cyclical stocks with potential catalysts, including national brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to benefit from robust consumer demand [2][8]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is showing signs of recovery, with categories like sugar-free tea, energy drinks, and protein drinks experiencing strong growth [3][9]. - East Peak's annual report indicates a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.1% [3][9]. Snacks - The snack industry continues to thrive, with new channels and product innovations driving growth, despite market expectations of a slowdown in Q1 [10]. - The report highlights the potential for high growth in 2025 through category exploration and channel expansion, recommending companies like Weilang and Yanjin Puzhou [10]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant chain sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with the seasoning segment performing relatively well due to the trend of restaurant chain standardization [11]. - The report suggests that as restaurant consumption policies strengthen, related sectors may see significant performance elasticity and valuation improvements, recommending stocks like Angel Yeast and Qingdao Beer [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the potential for recovery in valuations and consumption driven by government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [4][8]. Core Insights - The government work report emphasizes the importance of consumption, aiming to stimulate domestic demand and improve residents' income in line with economic growth. This is expected to positively impact the food and beverage sector as it is considered a post-cycle industry [4][8]. - The report suggests that while the first quarter of 2025 may face challenges in sales for the liquor sector, improvements in the economy in the second half of the year could lead to a recovery in the industry's fundamentals and stock prices [4][8]. - Long-term investment opportunities are identified in leading companies within the liquor sector, such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and Kweichow Moutai, as well as in the broader consumer goods sector, which is expected to see rational revenue and profit improvements [4][8]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.74% increase last week, with liquor stocks rising by 1.53%, although the sector underperformed compared to the broader market [7][30]. - The report indicates that the liquor market is experiencing a price stabilization phase, with key products showing signs of bottoming out in pricing [9][30]. Liquor Sector Insights - Current prices for major liquor brands include Moutai at 2,210 RMB per bottle and 2,255 RMB per case, with slight weekly increases. Wuliangye remains stable at approximately 930 RMB [9][18]. - The report notes that the liquor sector is facing pressure on sales, but if leading companies maintain their pricing strategies, the market may stabilize further in the second quarter [9][30]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The report highlights that consumer goods companies are expected to adopt more rational operational goals, leading to improved revenue and profitability in 2025. New retail formats are anticipated to drive growth in certain product categories [4][8]. - Specific companies such as Yili, Qingdao Beer, and Mengniu Dairy are recommended for investment due to their potential benefits from supportive policies and market trends [4][8]. Key Company Performance - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue of 15.84 billion RMB in 2024, a 40.6% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.33 billion RMB, reflecting a 63.1% growth [12][17]. - The company demonstrated strong cash flow performance, with cash receipts from sales reaching 20.43 billion RMB, a 47% increase compared to the previous year [12][17].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is enhancing market capitalization management to stabilize stock prices and boost investor confidence after experiencing market fluctuations and industry adjustments [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - Liquor companies are improving investment value through operational performance, stock buybacks, increased dividends, and share repurchases, leading to a stabilization in liquor stock performance [2][6]. - On March 6, high-end liquor companies saw significant stock price increases, with Kweichow Moutai rising by 2.70% to 1505.98 CNY per share, Wuliangye increasing by 2.39% to 131.68 CNY per share, and Shanxi Fenjiu up by 2.17%, surpassing 200 CNY per share [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - According to CITIC Securities, the liquor industry is in the third major cycle of bottoming out in the past thirty years, with expectations that capital market performance will lead the industry into an upward cycle [3][6]. - Despite short-term pressures on the liquor industry's fundamentals, there are signs of recovery in investor sentiment driven by policy signals, economic recovery expectations, and stabilization in terminal demand [6][7]. Group 3: Company Strategies - Companies like Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai are implementing market capitalization management strategies, including stock buybacks and enhancing operational efficiency to reflect their investment value accurately [9][10][11]. - Wuliangye's board is actively involved in market capitalization management, focusing on improving operational efficiency and profitability through various methods such as mergers, stock incentives, and investor relations management [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, specifically highlighting the potential in the liquor sector due to the ongoing digital transformation [1]. Core Insights - The report outlines the evolution of online liquor sales in China, indicating a significant growth trajectory with a 56.4% year-on-year increase in online liquor sales, reaching over 120 billion yuan in 2023 [3][23]. - The shift towards online sales is driven by several factors, including the pressure on traditional sales channels, the influence of substantial subsidies from e-commerce platforms, and the preferences of younger consumer demographics [3][34]. - The report anticipates a long-term trend towards the standardization of online liquor sales, with the potential rise of professional operational agencies to assist liquor manufacturers in navigating the digital landscape [3][44]. Summary by Sections Review of Online Liquor Development - The report identifies four key phases in the development of online liquor sales from 2000 to the present, highlighting the gradual maturation of the e-commerce landscape and the increasing integration of liquor brands into online platforms [3][4]. Reasons for Growth - The report attributes the growth of online liquor sales to the maturity of logistics and payment systems, the normalization of e-commerce subsidies, and the changing preferences of younger consumers who are more inclined to shop online [3][34][37]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the online penetration rate for liquor is currently at 12%, indicating substantial room for growth compared to the overall consumer goods market, which has a penetration rate of approximately 30% [3][44]. - It also notes that the rise of high-potential channels like Douyin (TikTok) presents significant opportunities for further expansion in online liquor sales [3][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines of investment: high-end liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, mid-range brands like Shanxi Fenjiu, and local brands positioned in expanding price segments [3][44].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is maintained as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - The heavy holding ratio in the food and beverage sector has decreased, while the overweight ratio has slightly increased. As of Q4 2024, the total market value of heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector is 309.25 billion, down by 41.40 billion from the previous quarter, with a heavy holding ratio of 4.56%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points [1][12][14] - The white liquor sector has seen a significant decline in heavy holding ratios, while the majority of the consumer goods sector has increased. The heavy holding ratio for the white liquor sector is 3.95%, down by 0.65 percentage points, while other sub-sectors like beverage and dairy have shown increases [1][15][17] Summary by Sections Heavy Holding Ratios - In Q4 2024, the food and beverage sector's heavy holding ratio ranks third among 31 primary industries, below the five-year average of 7.27%, indicating potential for growth [1][12] - The heavy holding market value in the food and beverage sector accounts for 11.73% of the total heavy holdings, a decrease of 0.52 percentage points [14] Sub-sector Performance - The white liquor sector's heavy holding ratio has decreased significantly, while the majority of consumer goods sub-sectors have increased. The beverage and dairy sub-sector's heavy holding ratio rose to 0.28%, while non-white liquor and snack food sectors also saw slight increases [15][17][18] - The heavy holding ratio for the food processing sub-sector has continued to decline, now at 1.30%, the lowest among all sub-sectors [18] Individual Stock Analysis - The top ten heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector are dominated by white liquor stocks, with seven out of ten positions held by white liquor companies. The overall heavy holding ratio for these top ten stocks is 4.22%, down by 0.44 percentage points [2][28] - The leading companies in heavy holdings include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with Kweichow Moutai maintaining the highest heavy holding ratio at 2.05% [28][30] Investment Recommendations - Despite the overall weak recovery in consumption, it is anticipated that policies to boost consumption will be strengthened in 2025, presenting opportunities in the food and beverage sector. Key areas to focus on include: - White liquor: Expecting demand recovery to alleviate inventory pressure, particularly in mid-range and mass-market segments [3] - Beer: Cost reductions are expected to enhance profitability, with a recovery in demand for mid-to-high-end beers [3] - Seasoning products: Continued cost advantages and health-oriented demand are seen as growth drivers [3] - Dairy products: Approaching a cost inflection point, with price wars expected to ease [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][29] Core Insights - The demand recovery post-Spring Festival is relatively weak, aligning with expectations. The feedback from the Spring Festival indicates a nearly 10% year-on-year decline in the sales of liquor, despite a noticeable improvement in the month-on-month performance. The liquor sector is entering a low season, and with companies like Wuliangye and Jinshiyuan halting shipments to maintain prices, the fundamental outlook is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term. The consumer goods sector shows a continued recovery, but the feedback from the Spring Festival is weak, particularly in the restaurant supply chain, which is expected to face short-term pressure. The condiment sector is showing a steady recovery, while dairy products are expected to decline year-on-year. The absolute growth rate of snack foods remains high, but growth is expected to cool due to a high base. Overall, the sector is likely to remain weak in the short term, but a gradual recovery is anticipated throughout the year, making it a good candidate for medium to long-term investment [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The feedback from the Spring Festival indicates a continuation of the decline in the liquor industry, with an expected drop of nearly 10%. Post-holiday, the price of Moutai has stabilized and slightly increased, while Wuliangye's price has rebounded significantly after halting shipments. The first half of 2025 is expected to remain weak, but medium-term prospects may improve as domestic policies take effect. High-end liquor is recommended for long-term investment, with specific companies such as Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao highlighted [6][7]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector shows a slight recovery in sales post-Spring Festival, but overall performance remains weak. The restaurant supply chain continues to struggle, while the condiment sector is experiencing a steady recovery. Dairy products are expected to decline year-on-year, and the growth rate of snack foods is anticipated to decrease due to a high base. The sector is characterized by essential demand, and performance may exceed that of the liquor sector. Companies such as Yili, Tianwei, Anjixin, Qianwei Central Kitchen, and Haitian Flavoring are recommended for medium to long-term investment [6][7]. Market Performance - The sector has experienced a slight pullback in the first three trading days post-holiday, primarily due to weak fundamental feedback. The overall decline for the sector in 2025 is 6.9%, attributed to systemic adjustments and weak fundamental performance [10][11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][27]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is currently experiencing a stable performance, with no significant fundamental catalysts. Major liquor companies are implementing inventory control and price stabilization measures, particularly during the traditional off-season post-Spring Festival. Companies like Wuliangye, Jinshiyuan, Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao are taking actions to maintain prices. Market feedback remains rational and stable, with Jinshiyuan and Fenjiu showing upward momentum and incremental growth [4][6]. - The overall valuation of the liquor sector is at a bottom range, with a general dividend yield exceeding 3%. Compared to other leading sectors, the liquor sector's leading stocks may have a rebound potential. Recommended companies include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and others [4][6]. - The consumer goods sector is showing a slight recovery in sales post-Spring Festival, although it remains relatively weak overall. The decline in raw material prices, such as milk and sugar, is beneficial for profit margins. The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for consumer goods, recommending companies like Yili, Tianwei, Anjixin, and others [6]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is entering a traditional off-season, with many manufacturers starting to control inventory and stabilize prices. Recent tracking shows stable prices for Moutai and Wuliangye, with some products from Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao also being temporarily halted. The overall liquor market is expected to remain weak in the short term, but macroeconomic policies may provide a catalyst for recovery [6][11]. - The absolute valuation of liquor stocks is at a bottom range, with a dividend yield above 3%. The leading liquor stocks are expected to have rebound potential, with recommendations for Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [4][6]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is experiencing a slight recovery in sales, although it remains under pressure. The report highlights that the sales performance of Zhongju Gaoxin is improving on a month-on-month basis, despite facing year-on-year pressure due to base effects. The decline in raw material prices is favorable for profit margins, and the report maintains a long-term positive outlook for the sector [6][16]. - Recommended companies in the consumer goods sector include Yili, Tianwei, Anjixin, Qianwei Central Kitchen, and Haitian Flavoring [6].