Core Insights - The dual festival period of National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025 did not yield the expected sales peak for the liquor industry, with retail and catering sales only growing by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a significant slowdown compared to the May Day holiday [1][3] - The liquor market is experiencing a structural transformation driven by rational consumption, channel revolution, and brand resilience, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for the industry [3] Market Performance - High-end liquor brands showed stable sales during the dual festival period, benefiting from effective volume control and price maintenance strategies, which helped stabilize core product pricing [3][4] - In contrast, mid-range and lower mid-range liquors faced significant challenges, with many products seeing price drops from the 400 yuan range to 200-300 yuan, and sales volumes declining by over 30% for most brands [4][6] - Low-end liquor performed relatively well, with some star products experiencing over 20% year-on-year sales growth, reflecting a shift towards value-for-money consumption [6][8] Regional Variations - The overall liquor market in Sichuan saw a year-on-year sales decline of approximately 20%, with significant drops in the Chengdu market [9][11] - In Guangdong, liquor sales also fell by 20-30% year-on-year, with a notable reduction in corporate group orders and a shift towards lower-priced products [9][11] - The Anhui market saw an increase in banquet events, but the average spending per table decreased, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [11][12] - The Henan market displayed structural opportunities, with some brands achieving growth through product innovation and cultural marketing [12] - Northern provinces like Shandong and Hebei showed signs of recovery, benefiting from a faster rebound in banquet markets [12] Channel Evolution - The liquor industry is undergoing a digital transformation in its channel ecosystem, with major brands adopting instant retail strategies to enhance consumer access [13][15] - Instant retail channels saw significant growth during the dual festival period, with sales on platforms like Meituan increasing by 8 times year-on-year [13][15] - The rise of instant retail reflects a shift in consumer habits towards immediate satisfaction, with younger consumers (aged 25-35) making up over 45% of buyers on these platforms [15][16] Future Trends - The liquor industry's competition is shifting from traditional brand and channel advantages to a more comprehensive competition based on digital capabilities, including data insights and supply chain efficiency [16] - The future of liquor consumption is expected to be characterized by rational, diverse, and instant purchasing behaviors, necessitating a reevaluation of product positioning and marketing strategies by companies [16]

Investment Themes - Recommended stocks include Huaxin Cement, China State Construction, and Ningde Times in the cyclical sector[2] - In the consumer sector, recommended stocks include Hengrui Medicine and Shanxi Fenjiu[2] - In the power equipment and new energy vehicle sector, recommended stocks include Ningde Times and Goldwind Technology[2] - In the TMT sector, recommended stocks include Longi Green Energy and Luxshare Precision[2] Market Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 12.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 29.25%, and the ChiNext Index by 50.40%[4] - The average gain of the recommended stock portfolio was 33.11%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index's gain of 17.90%[4] - Key outperformers included Huaxin Cement and Ningde Times, with quarterly gains exceeding 50%[4] Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment remains stable, with a focus on "appropriate easing" in monetary policy to support growth[4] - The manufacturing PMI showed signs of recovery but remained in contraction territory as of September[4] - The report anticipates continued inflow of foreign capital due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, enhancing the attractiveness of equity assets[4] Company Highlights - Huaxin Cement's projected EPS for 2025 is 1.30, with a PE ratio of 14.27[6] - China State Construction's projected EPS for 2025 is 1.16, with a PE ratio of 4.68[12] - China Rare Earth's projected EPS for 2025 is 0.34, with a PE ratio of 150.92[25] - Hengrui Medicine's projected EPS for 2025 is 1.26, with a PE ratio of 56.90[33]

Core Insights - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.47% on October 10, with Gujing Gongjiu leading the drop [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.03, down 0.94%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13355.42, down 2.7% [1] Stock Performance - Gujing Gongjiu closed at 154.28, down 1.04%, with a trading volume of 16,600 shares and a transaction value of 258 million [2] - Other notable declines include Shanxi Fenjiu at 188.70 (-0.89%), Luzhou Laojiao at 128.87 (-0.76%), and Kweichow Moutai at 1430.00 (-0.47%) [2] - The overall trading volume for the liquor sector showed a net outflow of 760 million from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 219 million [2][3] Fund Flow Analysis - Shanxi Fenjiu saw a net inflow of 16.18 million from main funds, while it experienced a net outflow of 67.02 million from speculative funds [3] - Gujing Gongjiu had a net inflow of 2.45 million from main funds but faced a significant outflow of 18.77 million from speculative funds [3] - The overall trend indicates a mixed sentiment among different investor types, with main funds showing a net outflow across the sector [3]

Group 1 - Shanxi Fenjiu plans to continue focusing its market investment for the Guo Fen series in regions with weaker consumption of light aroma liquor, indicating a commitment to national expansion and a precise strategy to enhance market penetration and consolidate its leading position in the industry [1] - The company aims to inject new momentum into its long-term performance growth through this targeted approach [1] Group 2 - Wuliangye has announced a recruitment plan for 141 positions, including 109 for campus recruitment and 32 for social recruitment, with roles spanning software development, medical positions, human resources, and supply chain management [2] - Notably, the recruitment process includes a physical fitness test, specifically a 1000-meter run, to assess candidates' physical condition, reflecting the company's emphasis on physical capability for production roles [2] - This approach ensures that frontline employees can meet the physical demands of high-intensity work, which is crucial for maintaining product quality and production stability [2] Group 3 - Zhujiang Beer has launched a new product, Bitter Melon and Cucumber flavored beer, which features a unique blend of American hops and fruit aromas, aiming to diversify its product matrix and attract younger consumers seeking novel experiences [3] - The introduction of this product is seen as a way to refresh the brand image, although its market acceptance and immediate impact on short-term performance remain to be evaluated [3]

Core Viewpoint - The essence of the current slowdown in the performance of liquor companies is that the Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a profound transformation from "scale expansion" to "value enhancement" [2] Industry Summary - The Chinese liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment period, shifting from a growth model reliant on scale expansion to a structural growth path that emphasizes efficiency and innovation [2] - Companies are actively responding to this transition by implementing measures such as promoting sales and reducing inventory [2] Company Summary - Shanxi Fenjiu is committed to continuing the implementation of its revitalization program through scientific marketing and stable operations, aiming for high-quality development [2] - The company plans to embrace new channels in response to the booming e-commerce and instant retail sectors, promoting online and offline integration [2] - Initiatives include establishing an official live streaming platform and leveraging e-commerce festivals like "Double Eleven" for brand promotion and consumer interaction [2]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is currently in the bottoming phase of its third major cycle in the past thirty years, with significant similarities to the period from 2012 to 2016 [1] Industry Summary - On October 9, the three major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3933.97 points, up 1.32%. However, the baijiu sector closed at 2241.33 points, down 0.46%, with 18 baijiu stocks declining [1] - Major baijiu stocks experienced the following closing prices and declines: - Kweichow Moutai at 1436.78 CNY/share, down 0.50% - Wuliangye at 121.16 CNY/share, down 0.26% - Shanxi Fenjiu at 190.39 CNY/share, down 1.87% - Luzhou Laojiao at 129.86 CNY/share, down 1.56% - Yanghe at 67.61 CNY/share, down 0.49% [1] Company Performance Outlook - CITIC Securities anticipates that the fundamental bottom for the baijiu industry may appear in the third quarter of 2025, with the second half of this year expected to be the most challenging period for the financial performance of baijiu companies [1] - The earliest potential turning point for sales activity is projected for the first quarter of 2026, influenced by factors such as inventory, pricing, policy impacts, recovery of consumption scenarios, and the financial performance of listed companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing price conflict between e-commerce platforms and liquor companies is intensifying, with promotional prices for major liquor brands falling below wholesale prices, putting pressure on offline channels [3][4]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - Major liquor brands are offering significant discounts, with prices for products like Feitian Moutai dropping from a market retail price of approximately 1900 RMB to 1700 RMB, while the wholesale price is around 1780 RMB [3]. - Wuliangye's core product, Pu Wuliang, is being sold at a promotional price of 769 RMB, compared to a wholesale price of 840 RMB [3]. - The trend of lower prices is not limited to top brands; other well-known brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Jian Nan Chun are also selling below wholesale prices [3]. Group 2: Impact on Distribution Channels - Due to price fluctuations, offline distributors are hesitant to stock up, affecting the sales rhythm of distributors [3]. - Traditionally, liquor prices would rise before major holidays, but this year has seen no increase, with expectations of further price declines post-holiday [3][4]. Group 3: E-commerce Influence - The rise of e-commerce has disrupted the traditional pricing control that liquor companies had, leading to a significant increase in online price competition [4]. - The internet penetration rate for liquor sales has increased from under 10% to around 20% due to recent e-commerce promotions, with projections suggesting it could reach 50% in the next five years [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The shift towards online sales necessitates changes in the sales model for liquor companies, as e-commerce now offers traceability and lower prices [5]. - Analysts predict that within three years, half of the traditional offline liquor stores may exit the market, prompting liquor companies to rethink their strategies [5].

10月9日，山西汾酒举办2025年半年度业绩说明会。会上管理层介绍，白酒行业目前正处于深度调整时 期。公司积极应对，采取了促动销、降库存等一系列措施。 当下酒企业绩大幅放缓的本质是中国白酒产业正经历一场从"规模扩张"到"价值提升"的深刻转型。从依 赖规模扩张的放量增长模式，转向注重效率与创新的结构增长路径。 汾酒将继续深入践行汾酒复兴纲领，通过科学营销和稳健经营，推动汾酒营销全要素、高质量发展。在 电商和即时零售爆火下，公司将积极拥抱新渠道，促进线上线下融合，通过建立官方直播平台，打通门 店本地生活业务。利用"双十一"等电商节庆开展品牌推广与消费者互动活动。 （上证路演） (编辑：林辰)关键字： 山西汾酒 白酒 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the liquor industry during the holiday season is expected to decline by approximately 20%, aligning with pre-holiday expectations, although there are some positive indicators in specific segments [3][5]. Group 1: Liquor Sales Performance - Liquor sales showed marginal acceleration about a week before the holiday but gradually slowed down afterward, with an overall expected decline of around 20% [3]. - High-end products, particularly from Moutai and Wuliangye, demonstrated good turnover, while mid-range products like Wuliang Chun and Honghua Lang saw double-digit growth in certain regions [3][4]. - Demand for large gatherings remains relatively strong, with positive growth reported in Jiangsu, Henan, and Sichuan, particularly in the mid-price range [3]. Group 2: Regional Performance - Performance varies significantly by province, with Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan showing slightly better-than-expected results, while other regions like Hunan and Anhui met expectations with declines of over 20% [3][4]. - Feedback from various regions indicates that while some areas experienced a decline, the overall performance was not as poor as initially anticipated [3]. Group 3: Channel Inventory and Pricing - Channel inventory is experiencing slight depletion but remains at a high level, with a balance between incoming and outgoing shipments expected to continue into Q4 2025 and H1 2026 [5]. - Pricing remains stable with slight increases, although there is anticipated downward pressure in the coming months due to seasonal factors and promotional activities [5]. Group 4: Company Strategies and Market Dynamics - Companies are generally reducing their promotional spending, focusing more on consumer-end products rather than channel products, with a notable shift towards secondary products [6]. - Despite reduced spending, leading brands are still managing to increase their market share in specific segments, indicating a competitive market landscape [6]. - The overall collection and shipment progress for companies is lagging by over 10% compared to last year, with some brands maintaining their targets while others are struggling [6]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The current liquor cycle is seen as entering a bottoming phase, with recommendations to focus on companies with lower performance risks, those expected to confirm performance bottoms, and those undergoing significant transformations [7]. - Specific companies such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are highlighted as priority investments due to their resilience [7]. - Attention is also drawn to companies like Yanghe and Jiuzi Li Du, which are undergoing changes that could lead to future growth [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a profound transformation from "scale expansion" to "value enhancement," leading to a significant slowdown in performance for liquor companies [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment period, prompting companies to implement measures such as promoting sales and reducing inventory [1] - The essence of the performance slowdown in liquor companies is attributed to the shift from a volume-driven growth model to a focus on efficiency and innovation [1] Group 2: Company Strategy - The company will continue to implement the Fenjiu Revival Program, emphasizing scientific marketing and stable operations to drive high-quality development [1] - In response to the booming e-commerce and instant retail sectors, the company plans to embrace new channels, promoting online and offline integration [1] - The establishment of an official live streaming platform and participation in e-commerce festivals like "Double Eleven" will be key strategies for brand promotion and consumer engagement [1]