Core Viewpoint - Oriental Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988), predicting revenue for FY2026-2028 to be 1,030.7 billion, 1,143.2 billion, and 1,251.8 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 91.6 billion, 135.8 billion, and 176.1 billion yuan respectively. The estimated market value of the company is 35,656 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 207.7 HKD, driven by AI in Alibaba Cloud and a steady reduction in losses in e-commerce despite industry challenges [1]. E-commerce Sector - The e-commerce industry is experiencing a slowdown, with a projected CMR of 1,054.8 billion yuan for FY26Q3, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The overall growth rate has declined due to high base effects and policy impacts, with online retail growth rates of 4.9% and 1.5% in October and November 2025 respectively, showing significant month-on-month declines [2]. - The instant retail business is expected to incur losses of around 21.5 billion yuan in FY26Q3, with an average loss per order of 3.7 yuan. However, there is a notable improvement in user engagement and order structure, indicating a healthy trend. The Taobao flash sales are crucial for user retention and traffic within the ecosystem, and the company remains committed to maintaining market share [3]. Cloud Intelligence Group - The Cloud Intelligence Group is expected to achieve revenue of 434.9 billion yuan in FY26Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.0%. The growth is driven by AI demand, with significant investments in AI applications since Q3 2025. Alibaba Cloud, as the only full-stack AI cloud provider in China, is anticipated to benefit from a flywheel effect that boosts both revenue and profit [4]. Other Segments - The AIDC segment is projected to incur a loss of 1.89 billion yuan in FY26Q3 due to increased promotional spending. However, the segment is expected to continue its trend of reducing losses. Overall losses for other segments are estimated at 7.12 billion yuan, primarily due to increased spending on AI model training and new AI applications [5]. AI Application Development - Alibaba's strong capabilities in model development are being enhanced, with new models expected to be released throughout 2026. The company is focusing on expanding AI application scenarios, which is anticipated to empower other business areas within its ecosystem [6].

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Liu Xiaojun as the chairman of Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank is expected to enhance the execution of the bank's strategy focused on identifying and addressing gaps while tapping into potential growth areas [1] Group 1: Leadership and Strategy - Liu Xiaojun has been officially approved as the chairman of Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank as of January 8 [1] - The new chairman aims to leverage "four major advantages" and develop "three new driving forces" (digital drive, industrial chain drive, and scenario circle drive) to deepen the bank's strategic positioning in retail and technology [1] - The strategy includes addressing shortcomings and exploring potential, with a focus on consolidating advantages in urban and rural banking [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Valuation - The bank aims to enhance its asset under management (AUM) and increase its middle-income revenue simultaneously [1] - After a period of preparation, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank is expected to enter a performance verification phase [1] - The current valuation shows potential for upward movement and a high dividend safety margin, with a target price set at 8.29 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] - Comparable companies are valued at a 2026 price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.57, with a 10% premium leading to a target PB of 0.63 for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend since the beginning of 2026, with the financing balance of the two markets exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan, prompting leading brokerage firms to issue bonds to support business development [1][3] - Major brokerages have actively engaged in bond issuance, with China Galaxy announcing a public bond issuance of up to 30 billion yuan and East Money Securities planning to issue up to 20 billion yuan in subordinated bonds [1][3] - The bond financing scale for brokerages has experienced explosive growth, with a total issuance amount of 81.3 billion yuan in early 2026, a nearly 70% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The surge in bond financing is driven by a combination of factors, including increased market activity, rising capital demands, and a favorable low-interest-rate environment that makes bond financing more attractive than equity financing [6][7] - Brokerages are using the proceeds from bond issuances primarily for replenishing working capital and repaying maturing debts, which is crucial for their operational stability and growth [5][6] - The trend of bond issuance is expected to continue in 2026, with a focus on capital supplement bonds and a shift towards longer-term financing to match the capital needs of margin trading and proprietary investment [8][9]

Market Overview - On January 13, the securities sector declined by 0.64%, with Guosheng Securities leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4138.76, down 0.64%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14169.4, down 1.37% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Huayin Securities (002945) saw a closing price of 18.92, up 3.61% with a trading volume of 1.0787 million shares and a turnover of 20.85 million [1] - Fangzheng Securities (601901) closed at 8.18, up 2.25%, with a trading volume of 2.5925 million shares and a turnover of 2.146 billion [1] - Other notable performers include Huatai Securities (601688) at 24.08, up 0.71%, and GF Securities (000776) at 22.86, up 0.66% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The securities sector experienced a net outflow of 2.057 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.835 billion [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors pulling back while retail investors increased their positions [2] Detailed Capital Flow by Stock - Huayin Securities (002945) had a net inflow of 1.92 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 83.81 million [3] - Fangzheng Securities (601901) reported a net inflow of 1.42 million from institutional investors, with retail investors seeing a net outflow of 29.78 million [3] - Other stocks like Dongfang Securities (600958) and Huatai Securities (601688) also showed varied capital flows, reflecting differing investor sentiments [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Dongfang Securities is expected to benefit from both internal drivers and external integration opportunities, with governance improvements enhancing the potential for mergers and acquisitions [1] - The asset management sector is showing signs of recovery, with stable fixed income investment returns and an increase in equity self-operated scale and directional exposure, while credit impairment is narrowing [1] - There are indications of accelerated strategic execution following management adjustments, with potential signals for capital operations or merger integrations [1] Group 2 - The market performance of Dongfang Securities is anticipated to improve if there are expectations for external expansion, especially given the recent trends in the brokerage sector where firms with merger and acquisition logic have led the market [1] - The estimated target price for Dongfang Securities is 15.06 yuan, representing a potential upside of 38% based on a valuation of 1.50x PB for 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities highlights that Lek Electric is building an ecological foundation with diversified businesses, countering the market perception of it being a traditional home appliance manufacturer with limited growth potential [1] Group 1: Business Diversification - The company is perceived as a traditional home appliance manufacturer, particularly in the vacuum cleaner sector, which is seen as having no growth space [1] - Dongfang Securities believes that the company's two core capabilities will enable it to become a more diversified entity [1] Group 2: Recent Acquisitions and Growth - The company completed the restructuring of its overseas production capacity in home appliances, leading to imminent profit improvements [1] - In 2021, the company acquired Shanghai Pache, entering the new energy vehicle die-casting business, with continuous improvement in orders and profitability [1] - In 2023, the company acquired Lihua Technology, focusing on PCBA business, primarily serving communications and consumer electronics, equipped with Siemens placement machines to meet AI product production requirements [1] Group 3: Future Prospects - The company's motor layout can extend into the robotics field, and it is investing in DPU, a potential IPO target, the digital chip unicorn Cloud Leopard Intelligence, indicating a multi-faceted approach to new fields [1] - Based on comparable company valuation methods, a target price of 42.63 yuan is set for 2026, with a 21 times earnings multiple, and a "buy" rating is initiated [1]

Group 1 - The report maintains a bullish outlook on A-shares, commodities, and gold, indicating that the expected changes continue to favor risk assets as domestic fundamental concerns ease and risk evaluations decline [7][51] - A-share style and industry allocation focus on mid-cap blue chips, with small and micro-cap stocks potentially having a catch-up opportunity, highlighting sectors such as non-ferrous metals, media, defense, chemicals, and electronics [7][51] - The report emphasizes the continued strength of trends in A-shares, gold, and commodities, while noting a slight increase in medium-term uncertainty for commodities [31][51] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic events impacting asset prices include a rise in CPI and a narrowing decline in PPI, alleviating concerns about the domestic economic downturn [19][21] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates weak demand, with a drop in new jobs and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, suggesting that the labor market remains fragile [23][26] - Adjustments to export tax rebate policies for various products, including solar energy and battery products, are expected to enhance China's competitive advantage in industries with high energy consumption and pollution [27] Group 3 - The report highlights the significant outperformance of CTA strategies, with the highest return reaching 7.45%, while other strategy categories lagged behind [14] - A-share market sentiment has shown a short-term increase, while medium-term risks remain stable, with fluctuations in various asset classes indicating changes in trading sentiment [36][40] - The report notes that the trends in non-ferrous metals and defense industries are strong, with both short-term sentiment and medium-term uncertainty rising [34][44]

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities, the second-largest brokerage under Shanghai State-owned Assets, is poised to benefit from both internal growth drivers and external integration opportunities, with expectations of market performance release due to governance improvements and strategic execution acceleration [1] Group 1: Governance and Strategic Execution - The board of directors is taking a leading role in strengthening governance, which opens up possibilities for external integration [1] - After management adjustments, the company is accelerating strategic execution, indicating clear signals of capital operations or merger and acquisition activities [1] Group 2: Business Performance and Financial Metrics - Asset management is showing marginal improvement, with stable fixed-income investment returns and an increase in equity proprietary scale and directional exposure [1] - Credit impairment continues to narrow, and risks associated with overseas business are being further cleared [1] Group 3: Market Expectations and Valuation - The brokerage sector has seen phase-based leading performances from firms with merger and acquisition expectations, with Dongfang Securities potentially following suit if external expansion expectations materialize [1] - The target price is set at 15.06 yuan based on a valuation of 1.50x PB for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 38% [1]

Core Insights - The emergence of integrated AI short drama production tools is expected to drive a shift from PGC (Professionally Generated Content) to UGC (User Generated Content), ultimately accumulating more data for AIGC (AI Generated Content) [1] - The supply side is anticipated to grow significantly, benefiting content providers due to special traffic incentives from platforms like ByteDance [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - Recent releases of full-stack AI short drama production tools by leading companies such as Yueda Group and Zhongwen Online are expected to accelerate the conversion of IP novels into short dramas [2] - The full-stack AI short drama generation tools are projected to lower production barriers and significantly increase the supply of short dramas [3] Group 2: Technological Advancements - By 2025, AI short dramas will still rely on semi-automation, requiring human intervention at various production stages, but by 2026, the trend will shift towards full-stack generation tools that enhance efficiency [3] - Improvements in character consistency and dynamic storytelling capabilities are expected by 2026, addressing current issues with character and style mismatches [4] Group 3: 3D Capabilities and IP Longevity - The transition from 2D to 3D short dramas is anticipated to increase by 2026, enhancing the reusability of digital assets and extending the lifecycle of IPs [5] Group 4: Market Opportunities - TikTok's new platform PineDrama is offering up to 20 times incentives for quality content, which is expected to facilitate the localization of short dramas and enhance global market penetration [6] - The production shift from live-action to AI-generated content is making it easier and more cost-effective to adapt content for local markets, benefiting the entire industry chain [6]

责任编辑：卢昱君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 香港联交所最新数据显示，1月7日，易方达基金减持东方证券（03958）348.8万股，每股作价7.38港 元，总金额约为2574.14万港元。减持后最新持股数目约为1.33亿股，持股比例为12.91%。 责任编辑：卢昱君 香港联交所最新数据显示，1月7日，易方达基金减持东方证券（03958）348.8万股，每股作价7.38港 元，总金额约为2574.14万港元。减持后最新持股数目约为1.33亿股，持股比例为12.91%。 ...