格隆汇10月13日｜A股市场黄金概念股午后进一步拉升，其中，晓程科技涨超10%，西部黄金拉升涨 停，合百集团、中国瑞林此前涨停，豫光金铅、招金黄金、鹏欣资源涨超7%，中金黄金涨超5%，白银 有色、赤峰黄金、湖南白银、山东黄金、四川黄金涨超4%。 消息面上，中美贸易摩擦升级，国际金价续涨，现货黄金升至4074美元/盎司，再创历史新高。现货黄 金年内累涨超55%。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300139 | 晓程科技 | 1 | 10.19 | 83.27亿 | 108.29 | | 603257 | 中国瑞林 | 1 | 10.01 | 90.49亿 | 271.16 | | 601069 | 西部黄金 | 1 | 10.00 | 300亿 | 188.10 | | 000417 | 合百集团 | 1 | 9.94 | 54.36亿 | 11.37 | | 600531 | 豫光金铅 | | 7.62 | 155亿 | 128.36 | | 000506 | 招金黄金 | | 7. ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold industry stocks are experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 2.27% as of October 13, 2025, with notable gains from individual stocks such as Western Gold (601069) up 10.00%, Xiaocheng Technology (300139) up 9.61%, and Yuguang Jinlei (600531) up 8.98% [1][2]. - The Gold Stock ETF (517520) increased by 2.21%, with a cumulative rise of 10.62% over the past two weeks, ranking it in the top one-sixth among comparable funds [1][2]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Demand - The Gold Stock ETF saw a significant increase in scale, growing by 907 million yuan over the past two weeks, placing it in the top one-sixth among comparable funds [2][3]. - The ETF's shares increased by 94 million units in the same period, also ranking in the top one-sixth among comparable funds [3]. - The latest net inflow for the Gold Stock ETF was 192 million yuan, with a total of 111 million yuan attracted over the last four trading days [3]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals, including a 97.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, have bolstered market confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and the U.S. government shutdown have heightened demand for gold, reinforcing its appeal as a protective investment [3][4]. - Analysts predict that short-term demand for gold will remain strong due to these factors, while long-term trends indicate continued central bank purchases and a shift from net selling to net buying in gold ETFs [4].

10月13日，赤峰黄金涨5.02%，截至发稿，报31.36元/股，成交25.06亿元，换手率4.88%，总市值595.97 亿元。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 资料显示，赤峰吉隆黄金矿业股份有限公司位于内蒙古赤峰市红山区学院北路金石明珠写字楼A座9层, 香港湾仔港湾道26号华润大厦19楼1905室，成立日期1998年6月22日，上市日期2004年4月14日，公司主 营业务涉及黄金、有色金属采选及资源综合回收利用业务。主营业务收入构成为：矿产金90.03%，电 解铜3.76%，其他(电子产品拆解)2.38%，锌精粉1.13%，稀土产品0.97%，钼精粉0.72%，铜精粉 0.44%，铅精粉0.37%，其他(补充)0.22%。 责任编辑：小浪快报 从基金十大重仓股角度 诺德天富（005295）基金经理为曾文宏。 截至发稿，曾文宏累计任职时间8年54天，现任基金资产总规模2.8亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 23.96%， 任职期间最差基金回报4.8%。 数据显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global risk aversion has led to a significant increase in gold prices, with London spot gold reaching historical highs above $4,060 per ounce, driven by economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - As of October 13, 2023, London spot gold prices rose by 0.82% to $4,050.74 per ounce, with a peak of $4,060.05 per ounce [3]. - Since the beginning of October, gold prices have surged over 5%, surpassing $4,000 per ounce [6]. - COMEX gold futures also saw a rise of 1.68%, reaching $4,067.5 per ounce, with a high of $4,079.3 per ounce [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - A-share gold stocks experienced a rally, with Western Gold rising over 6%, Chifeng Gold up over 2%, and Hunan Gold increasing by over 1% due to the strong performance of gold prices [5]. - Investment banks like Goldman Sachs and UBS have noted that the appeal of gold as a defensive asset is increasing amid global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [2][8]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - UBS's Chief Investment Officer highlighted that the record rise in gold prices reflects a significant increase in demand for defensive assets due to economic uncertainties and geopolitical changes [8]. - Various institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with UBS predicting prices could reach $4,200 per ounce in the coming months, and Morgan Stanley forecasting $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026 [9]. - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its December 2026 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, indicating a potential upside of approximately 23% [9][10]. Group 4: Central Bank Activities - Central banks are expected to maintain gold purchases at an average of 80 tons per month in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026, contributing significantly to gold price increases [10]. - The inflow into gold ETFs is anticipated to rise as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 100 basis points by mid-2026, further supporting gold prices [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights the potential for price increases in copper due to supply disruptions and tariff impacts, suggesting that recent price pullbacks may present good buying opportunities [6] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of precious metals, particularly gold, amid renewed tariff concerns between China and the US, recommending an increased allocation to gold [5] - The report notes significant price increases in cobalt intermediate products, forecasting continued price growth in 2026-2027 due to supply-demand imbalances [7] - The report discusses the tightening supply of rare earths due to new export controls, which may lead to price increases in the domestic market [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 7554.83, with a 52-week high of 7783.14 and a low of 4280.14 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price increases: LME copper rose by 0.76%, aluminum by 2.20%, zinc by 0.95%, and lead by 1.44%. Precious metals also saw gains, with COMEX gold up by 3.80% and silver by 1.44% [21] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes included an increase of 14,579 tons in copper, a decrease of 4,602 tons in aluminum, and an increase of 17,175 tons in lead [30]

Core Insights - The ongoing US-China trade tensions have led to a surge in safe-haven investments, pushing gold prices to a new historical high of $4,060 per ounce [1] - The rise in gold prices has positively impacted the Hong Kong stock market, particularly gold-related stocks, which have shown significant gains [1] Company Performance - Zijin Mining International saw an increase of over 6%, with a latest price of $139.00 and a market capitalization of 372.11 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 94.16% [2] - China Silver Group rose by over 5%, with a latest price of $0.800 and a market capitalization of 2.17 billion, marking a year-to-date increase of 238.98% [2] - Chifeng Jilong Gold experienced a gain of 4.48%, with a latest price of $34.020 and a market capitalization of 64.65 billion, showing a year-to-date increase of 151.16% [2] - Lingbao Gold saw an increase of 4.04%, with a latest price of $19.580 and a market capitalization of 25.20 billion, reflecting a remarkable year-to-date increase of 640.79% [2] - Zefeng Gold rose by 3.55%, with a latest price of $1.750 and a market capitalization of 2.17 billion, indicating a staggering year-to-date increase of 894.32% [2] - Shandong Gold increased by 2.51%, with a latest price of $40.080 and a market capitalization of 184.77 billion, showing a year-to-date increase of 228.34% [2] - Zijin Mining rose by 2.08%, with a latest price of $34.360 and a market capitalization of 913.21 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 152.73% [2] - Jihai Resources increased by 2.27%, with a latest price of $1.800 and a market capitalization of 3.60 billion, marking a year-to-date increase of 116.87% [2] - Zhangguan Gold rose by 2.12%, with a latest price of $2.890 and a market capitalization of 12.71 billion, indicating a year-to-date increase of 504.60% [2] - China National Gold International saw an increase of 1.28%, with a latest price of $141.900 and a market capitalization of 56.25 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 251.42% [2]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of October 10, the total market financing balance decreased to 2.43 trillion yuan, indicating a reduction in investor activity in the market [1]. Financing Balances - The financing balance for the Shanghai Stock Exchange is 1.23 trillion yuan, down by 256.5 million yuan from the previous trading day - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange's financing balance is 1.19 trillion yuan, down by 93.1 million yuan - The Beijing Stock Exchange's financing balance is 7.47 billion yuan, down by 40.22 million yuan [1]. Individual Stock Performance - On October 10, 1,689 stocks received net financing purchases, with 565 stocks having net purchases exceeding 10 million yuan - 45 stocks had net purchases exceeding 100 million yuan, with Dongfang Caifu leading at 701 million yuan, followed by ZTE Corporation and WuXi AppTec with 623 million yuan and 586 million yuan respectively [1][2]. Industry Analysis - The industries with the highest concentration of stocks receiving net financing purchases over 100 million yuan include electronics, power equipment, and communications, with 11, 6, and 6 stocks respectively [1]. - In terms of board distribution, there are 27 stocks on the main board, 11 on the ChiNext board, and 7 on the Sci-Tech Innovation board that received significant net purchases [1]. Financing Balance to Market Value Ratio - The average ratio of financing balance to circulating market value is 4.55% - Huacan Optoelectronics has the highest ratio at 9.07%, followed by Dongfang Caifu at 8.14%, Heertai at 7.83%, and Canxin Co. at 7.43% [2]. Notable Stock Movements - A detailed list of stocks with significant net purchases on October 10 includes: - Dongfang Caifu: net purchase of 701.46 million yuan, with a market value ratio of 8.14% - ZTE Corporation: net purchase of 623.09 million yuan, with a market value ratio of 5.86% - WuXi AppTec: net purchase of 585.81 million yuan, with a market value ratio of 2.41% [2][3]. Additional Stock Insights - Other notable stocks with significant net purchases include: - Zhongji Xuchuang: 40.99 million yuan, market value ratio of 3.67% - Xinyi Sheng: 37.92 million yuan, market value ratio of 5.77% - Tongfu Microelectronics: 36.99 million yuan, market value ratio of 4.59% [2][3][4]. Overall Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment appears cautious, as indicated by the decrease in financing balances across major exchanges and the mixed performance of individual stocks [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the strengthening of gold's safe-haven attributes and further management of the rare earth industry [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the impact of trade tariff concerns on gold's safe-haven demand, while silver prices are accelerating due to spot market shortages and warehouse squeezes [7]. - The rare earth industry is seeing enhanced management policies, ensuring the strategic security of China's rare earth industry [7]. - The cobalt market is expected to experience upward price pressure due to the announced export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [7]. Industry Overview - **Industrial Metals**: The report notes that trade tariff concerns are increasing gold's safe-haven demand, with silver prices rising due to market shortages. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a decrease in holdings by 2.3 tons to 1013.44 tons, while iShares Silver ETF increased by 35.28 tons to 15443.76 tons [7]. - **Rare Earths**: Recent announcements from the Ministry of Commerce regarding export controls on rare earth materials are expected to enhance the management of the industry, ensuring strategic security [7]. - **Cobalt**: The Democratic Republic of Congo's export quota policy is likely to support cobalt prices, with the average price of electrolytic cobalt rising by 4.8% to 349,500 CNY/ton [9]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector such as Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Shandong Gold, as well as silver companies like Xingye Silver and Shengda Resources [2]. - For cobalt, companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Tengyuan Cobalt are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of rising cobalt prices [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting strong performance and favorable market conditions [8]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the recent increase in gold prices is driven by heightened risk aversion due to renewed US-China trade tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][8]. - Industrial metals are expected to continue strengthening due to supply disruptions and robust demand, particularly in copper and aluminum [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are projected to perform well due to strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage markets [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.80%, while the SW Non-ferrous Index increased by 11.89% during the reporting period [1]. - Precious metals, including gold and silver, saw significant price increases of 6.48% and 2.48%, respectively [1]. 2. Base Metals 2.1 Price and Stock Correlation - The report notes that aluminum prices are supported by a seasonal increase in demand and controlled inventory levels, with a current price of 20,950 RMB/ton [27]. - Copper prices are influenced by supply disruptions and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with a recent price of 10,374 USD/ton [12][41]. 2.2 Industrial Metals - The report highlights that aluminum production is expected to remain low due to increased direct supply ratios and seasonal demand, which supports price stability [25][26]. - Copper supply is under pressure from production cuts by major mining companies, which is expected to sustain higher prices [2][41]. 2.3 Lead, Tin, and Nickel - Lead prices have shown resilience due to tight supply conditions, with recent prices around 20,026 USD/ton [58]. - Nickel prices are fluctuating due to regulatory changes in Indonesia and supply concerns, currently priced at 122,180 RMB/ton [60]. 3. Precious Metals and Minor Metals 3.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have surged due to strong safe-haven demand, with a recent price of 4,035.50 USD/oz, reflecting a 6.48% increase [14][74]. - Silver prices are also rising, driven by industrial demand and investment interest, currently at 47.52 USD/oz [14][74]. 3.2 Energy Metals - Lithium demand remains robust, with prices supported by strong consumption in electric vehicles and energy storage, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate priced at 71,300 RMB/ton [14][3]. - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with current prices around 331,500 RMB/ton [3][14]. 4. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, citing strong earnings forecasts and favorable market conditions [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - The gold stocks collectively opened lower, influenced by a significant drop in spot gold prices and geopolitical developments in the Middle East [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Chinese gold stocks such as China Gold International, Zijin Mining International, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold experienced declines, with drops of 3.99%, 3.75%, 3.71%, and 3.13% respectively [3]. - Spot gold prices fell below $3960 per ounce, retreating nearly $100 from recent highs, while COMEX gold futures dropped by 1.95% [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - A ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel was announced, leading to a rapid decrease in geopolitical tensions, which contributed to the sell-off in gold [3]. - Analysts noted that the recent high prices of gold prompted profit-taking among investors, further pressuring gold prices in the short term [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the current price pressures, analysts from Huatai Futures indicated that the underlying factors such as risk premium and the Federal Reserve's accommodative stance have not changed significantly, suggesting potential for future price increases [3].