Group 1: Company Forecasts - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (通威股份) expects a net loss of approximately 90 billion to 100 billion yuan for the year 2025, citing industry challenges such as supply surplus and rising raw material prices [7] - Longi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (隆基绿能) anticipates a net loss of 60 billion to 65 billion yuan for 2025, attributing this to ongoing low operating rates and intensified competition in the photovoltaic industry [6] Group 2: Regulatory and Market Environment - The State Council is focusing on measures to boost consumption and ensure the payment of wages to migrant workers, indicating a proactive approach to economic stability [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes maintaining market stability and preventing excessive speculation, aiming to foster a healthy investment environment [2] - The People's Bank of China has adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to no less than 30%, reflecting a tightening of credit conditions [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the A-share market is not seeking a "crazy bull" but rather a "slow bull" for sustainable growth, emphasizing the importance of companies improving operational quality and transparency [3] - The market is expected to experience a phase of adjustment following a period of high trading activity, with a focus on performance disclosures as earnings reports begin to be released [11][20] - Investment strategies are shifting towards sectors with solid fundamentals, such as technology and industrial metals, while also considering consumer services and non-bank financials as key areas of interest [15][18]

【导读】回顾周末大事，汇总十大券商最新研判。通威股份：预计2025年净亏损90亿元至 100亿元；隆基绿能：预计2025年净亏损60亿元至65亿元。 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，马上就要开盘了，一起回顾周末大事，以及看看券商分析师们的最新研判。 周末大事 国常会：听取提振消费专项行动进展情况汇报 研究加快培育服务消费新增长点等促消费举措 国务院总理李强1月16日主持召开国务院常务会议，听取提振消费专项行动进展情况汇报并研 究加快培育服务消费新增长点等促消费举措，部署做好清理拖欠企业账款行动和保障农民工 工资支付有关工作，审议通过《国务院关于修改和废止部分行政法规的决定（草案）》。 证监会：坚持稳字当头、巩固市场稳中向好势头 严肃查处过度炒作乃至操纵市场等违法违规 行为、坚决防止市场大起大落 证监会2026年度工作会议强调，坚持稳字当头，巩固市场稳中向好势头。全方位加强市场监 测预警，及时做好逆周期调节，强化交易监管和信息披露监管，进一步维护交易公平性，严 肃查处过度炒作乃至操纵市场等违法违规行为，坚决防止市场大起大落。继续深化公募基金 改革，持续拓宽中长期资金来源渠道和方式，推出各类适配长期投资的产品和风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the earnings forecasts for several listed companies, highlighting a mixed performance with some companies expecting profit increases while others anticipate continued losses in 2025 [1]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - ILe Home is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 171 million to 190 million yuan, representing a growth of 40.78% to 56.42% [2]. - Guolian Minsheng anticipates a net profit of about 2.008 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 406% [2]. - Longi Green Energy forecasts a net loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan, with a decline of 24.58% to 30.38% [2]. - Gui Guang Network expects a net loss of approximately 1.35 billion to 1.07 billion yuan, with a change of -24.51% to 1.31% [2]. - Ruiming Technology predicts a slight profit increase with a net profit of around 37 million to 40 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 27.58% to 37.92% [2]. - Aiko Solar anticipates a net loss of 1.9 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, with an increase of 64.28% to 77.44% [2]. - Okoyi expects a net profit of approximately 96 million to 110 million yuan, with a growth of 67.53% to 91.96% [2]. - Tiandi Source forecasts a net loss of 900 million to 1.35 billion yuan, with a change of -32.36% to 11.76% [2]. - Tongwei Co. anticipates a net loss of 9 billion to 10 billion yuan, with a decline of 27.86% to 42.07% [2]. - Lida New Materials expects a net loss of 36 million to 26 million yuan, with a change of -5.18% to 24.04% [2]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - Longi Green Energy cites ongoing supply-demand mismatches in the photovoltaic industry, persistent low-price competition, and rising costs of silver paste and silicon materials as key challenges impacting its performance [2]. - Tongwei Co. indicates that its silicon business is affected by production ramp-up and low market prices, leading to increased losses [3]. - Tiandi Source mentions that the overall real estate market conditions are negatively impacting its project sales and revenue [4]. Group 3: Positive Performers - Guolian Minsheng's significant profit increase is attributed to the acquisition of Minsheng Securities and growth in its securities investment and wealth management businesses [4]. - Okoyi's profit growth is driven by rising prices of raw materials and successful product upgrades in its hard alloy tool segment [5]. - ILe Home's profit increase is linked to its differentiated brand strategy and improved operational efficiency [6].

Group 1 - Fenglong Co., Ltd. has completed the suspension review and will resume trading on January 19 [1] - Rongbai Technology is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for potentially misleading statements regarding a major contract [1] - Rongbai Technology estimates a total contract amount of 120 billion yuan with CATL [1] Group 2 - Minexplosion Optoelectronics is planning to acquire Xiazhi Precision and Jiangxi Maida, both of which focus on core consumables in PCB manufacturing [1] - Yanjing Co., Ltd. intends to purchase 98.54% equity of Yongqiang Technology, expanding its business into high-end electronic interconnection materials for integrated circuits [1] Group 3 - Tianyuan Intelligent's actual controller and chairman, Wu Yizhong, has been detained [1] - Tiantie Technology's actual controller, Xu Jiding, has had his compulsory measures changed to bail pending trial [1] Group 4 - Guolian Minsheng expects a net profit increase of approximately 406% year-on-year for 2025 [1] - Oke Yi anticipates a net profit increase of 67.53% to 91.96% year-on-year for 2025 [1] Group 5 - Tiandi Source forecasts a net loss of 900 million to 1.35 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - Gui Guang Network expects a net loss of 1.07 billion to 1.35 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - Aisheng Co., Ltd. projects a net loss of 1.2 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - Longi Green Energy anticipates a net loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - Tongwei Co., Ltd. expects a net loss of 9 billion to 10 billion yuan for 2025 [1] Group 6 - Weisi Medical's actual controller's concerted action party plans to reduce its stake in the company by no more than 3% [1] - Chuhuan Technology's pre-IPO employee stock ownership platform intends to reduce its stake in the company by no more than 3% [1] - Sandam Membrane's Qingyuan China plans to reduce its stake in the company by no more than 3% [1]

Key Points - The State Council is focusing on measures to boost consumption and cultivate new growth points in service consumption, while also addressing overdue payments to enterprises and ensuring wage payments to migrant workers [2] - The tax authority is reminding taxpayers to self-check their overseas income for the past three years, with potential penalties for non-compliance [3] - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been adjusted to no less than 30% [4] - Public rental housing tax incentives have been extended, including exemptions from land use tax and stamp duty for public rental housing projects [5] - China's annual electricity consumption is projected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, reaching 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours, which is more than double that of the United States [6] - Public pension funds can now be redeemed early without holding period restrictions, which is a positive development for investors [7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is emphasizing market stability and fair trading, while also addressing excessive speculation and market manipulation [8][9] - The CSRC is seeking public opinions on the draft regulations for derivative trading supervision to promote a healthy development of the derivatives market [9] - Tongwei Co. expects a net loss of 9 to 10 billion yuan for 2025 due to industry challenges, including supply chain issues and rising raw material costs [11] - Longi Green Energy anticipates a net loss of 6 to 6.5 billion yuan for 2025, citing ongoing low prices and cost pressures in the photovoltaic industry [13] - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs on goods from eight European countries, which may impact international trade dynamics [14] - Iran has dismantled a spy organization linked to unrest, highlighting geopolitical tensions [15] Industry Insights - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend, supported by policy signals aimed at stabilizing the market and encouraging rational investment [25] - The market is experiencing a structural shift, with a focus on performance-driven investments as the narrative-driven trends fade [24] - The technology sector is anticipated to undergo a two-phase upward trend, with the first phase focusing on structural opportunities and the second phase driven by cyclical improvements and increased asset allocation towards equities [26]

光伏龙头业绩预亏。 光伏产业周期调整持续，行业内多家上市公司预亏。1月18日晚间，光伏龙头隆基绿能(601012)、通威股份(600438)，以及爱旭股份(600732)均披露了预计 2025年业绩亏损的公告。从公告来看，这三家龙头去年预计亏损合计超160亿元。 从行业龙头的业绩预告中看到，在价格竞争激烈、海外贸易环境复杂等多重压力下，行业仍处于周期下行的深度调整阶段。 业绩预亏 隆基绿能 隆基绿能业绩预告显示，预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净亏损为60亿元到65亿元。 | 股票代码:601012 | 股票简称:隆基绿能 | 公告编号:临 2026-003 号 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码:113053 | 债券简称:隆 22 转债 | | | 债券代码:244101 | 债券简称:GK 隆基 01 | | | 债券代码:244386 | 债券简称:GK 隆基 02 | | 通威股份业绩预告显示，预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润亏损90亿元至100亿元。 | 股票代码:600438 | | --- | | 债券代码:110085 | 隆基绿能表示，2025年 ...

Group 1 - Trump denies ever offering the position of Federal Reserve Chair to Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, and plans to sue the bank for terminating business relations after the January 6 incident [1] - JPMorgan Chase reports that while short-term pressure on silver has eased due to the absence of new tariffs, multiple risks remain, including high industrial demand suppression and continued ETF outflows [2][7] - The report indicates that silver prices could threaten solar industry demand by 50-60 million ounces in the coming years, with raw material costs now accounting for about 30% of solar panel prices [7][8] Group 2 - Brazil is seen as a potential partner for the U.S. in rare earth cooperation, leveraging its rich but underdeveloped resources to improve diplomatic relations [3][10] - Longi Green Energy forecasts a net loss of 6-6.5 billion yuan for 2025 due to ongoing supply-demand mismatches and rising costs in the photovoltaic industry [4][6] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has seen over 5,000 new foreign trade enterprises registered since its closure on December 18, 2025, indicating strong policy support and market interest [5][11]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with the overall sector still in a state of loss, as evidenced by the recent earnings forecasts from major companies indicating significant expected losses for 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Longi Green Energy (隆基绿能) expects a net loss of approximately 60 billion to 65 billion yuan for 2025, primarily due to rising costs of silver paste and silicon materials [3]. - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (通威股份) anticipates the highest loss among the companies, with a projected net loss of 90 billion to 100 billion yuan for 2025, despite some performance improvement from rising polysilicon prices [2][3]. - TCL Zhonghuan (TCL中环) forecasts a net loss of 82 billion to 96 billion yuan for 2025, with product prices remaining low and insufficient cost transmission [2][3]. - JA Solar (晶澳科技) and Aiko Solar (爱旭股份) expect net losses of 45 billion to 48 billion yuan and 12 billion to 19 billion yuan, respectively, citing structural overcapacity as a significant challenge [3]. - Trina Solar (天合光能) and JinkoSolar (晶科能源) have not disclosed specific loss amounts but have indicated continued losses for 2025 [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The losses among these nine major companies are correlated with their production capacity, indicating that larger companies are experiencing greater losses [2]. - The industry is shifting from a focus on scale to a competition based on the ability to reduce losses, with Tongwei being the only company to see an increase in loss magnitude for 2025 compared to 2024 [4]. - The overall industry has faced nine consecutive quarters of losses since the fourth quarter of 2023, with ongoing supply-demand imbalances [4]. - Companies are urged to break away from homogeneous competition and build comprehensive advantages through technology, products, and ecosystems [4].

Group 1 - Leading photovoltaic module companies are accelerating their entry into the energy storage sector, with companies like Canadian Solar, Trina Solar, Jinko Solar, JA Solar, and LONGi Green Energy making significant moves in this area [3][4] - The energy storage market is a key focus for photovoltaic companies, with both commercial and residential storage sectors being targeted for development [3] Group 2 - Photovoltaic companies have two main advantages in entering the energy storage field: strong customer and channel alignment, and established global sales and service systems that facilitate market expansion [4] - The trend of integrating photovoltaic and energy storage projects is becoming more prevalent, especially in countries with underdeveloped electricity markets and in mature markets where bundled projects can secure higher Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) prices [4] Group 3 - The growth potential for photovoltaic companies in the energy storage sector is significant, with three key indicators to assess their success: commitment to entering the storage market, expansion in overseas markets over the next 1-2 years, and the ability to convert channel, brand, and service advantages into profit contributions [5]

Macro - Key Points - The central bank will lower the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points starting January 19, 2026, with new rates set at 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year re-lending respectively, and a rediscount rate of 1.5% [5] - The financing margin ratio for securities trading will increase from 80% to 100% starting January 19, 2026, while existing contracts will maintain the previous 80% requirement [6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is investigating Rongbai Technology for misleading statements in a major contract announcement [12] Industry - Key Points - Shenghong Technology expects a net profit increase of 260% to 295% for 2025, projecting profits between 4.16 billion and 4.56 billion yuan, driven by advancements in AI computing technology [13] - Longi Green Energy anticipates a net loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan for 2025, citing ongoing challenges in the photovoltaic industry due to supply-demand mismatches and intense competition [14] - Tongwei Co. predicts a net loss of approximately 9 billion to 10 billion yuan for 2025, facing significant operational pressures from industry oversupply and rising raw material costs [15] - Zhongke Aerospace has completed its IPO guidance, marking progress for commercial aerospace companies in the capital market [16]