迎接 6 月基本面拐点 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.05 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——煤炭行业周报 | [table_Authors] 黄涛(分析师) | 王楠瑀(研究助理) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880515090001 | S0880123060041 | 本报告导读： 煤价底部企稳，预计随着全国气温的逐步攀升，再考虑到库存去化，预计煤价拐点 就在 6 月，当前就是基本面拐点。 投资要点： [投资建议： Table_Summary] 从板块推荐角度，依然推荐红利的核心中国神华、陕西煤业、 中煤能源；继续推荐兖矿能源、晋控煤业。 疆煤外运及内蒙的铁路运费再次下调，背后或反应新疆内蒙外运大规模 亏损压力。上周疆煤外运及内蒙的铁路运费再次下调，物流成本继续下 降。旺季来临时候下调运费，显示出产地，新疆内蒙外运大规模亏损压 力，运量下降倒逼铁路降价，在当前 620 元港口价格下已经刻不容缓， 侧面反映两大产地压力。我们认为 4 月全国产量 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shenhua [1] Core Views - China Shenhua is a high-quality representative of dividend stocks with stable operations and high dividends, benefiting from its state-owned enterprise background and integrated coal production, transportation, and sales operations [7][9] - The company has a robust asset base with significant coal reserves and a high proportion of long-term contracts, which provide price resilience and cost advantages [7][27] Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Shenhua is a leading integrated energy company under the State Energy Group, with a state-owned background and a diversified business model covering coal, electricity, railways, ports, shipping, and coal chemical industries [9][10] - As of December 2024, the company had a gross profit distribution of 69.93% from coal, 13.36% from electricity, and other segments contributing smaller percentages [7][9] Coal Business - The company has abundant coal resources, with a total resource volume of 34.36 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 15.09 billion tons, ranking it among the top in the industry [27] - The coal production cost for 2024 was 179 yuan per ton, which is lower than most peers, and the company achieved a coal business gross profit of 80.6 billion yuan [7][37] Electricity Business - China Shenhua has a total installed capacity of 46,264 MW as of 2024, with plans for further capacity increases through acquisitions [7] - The electricity segment's gross profit is projected to be 16.5 billion yuan in 2025, benefiting from improved coal self-sufficiency [7] Transportation Business - The company operates an extensive railway network that efficiently supports coal transportation, with a total railway operating mileage of 2,408 kilometers [7][11] - The transportation segment's gross profit is expected to be 1.64 billion yuan in 2025 [7] Coal Chemical Business - The company is advancing its coal-to-olefins project in Baotou, with a production capacity of 600,000 tons per year [7] - The coal chemical segment's gross profit is anticipated to be 400 million yuan in 2025 [7] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to generate revenues of 302.84 billion yuan, 315.26 billion yuan, and 327.99 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 51.40 billion yuan, 53.70 billion yuan, and 56.13 billion yuan [7] - The report emphasizes the company's integrated advantages across the coal, electricity, and transportation sectors, reinforcing its investment value and maintaining a "Buy" rating [7]

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing significant supply contraction due to falling prices, with over 53.64% of coal companies reporting losses as of April 2025, the highest level since 2018 [1][20][22] - Electricity demand is expected to rebound with the onset of summer, as average daily power generation showed a year-on-year increase of 3.32% in mid-May 2025, despite a 14.37% decline in hydroelectric power generation [1][59] - A strong expectation for a rebound in thermal coal prices is anticipated as demand increases with rising temperatures, potentially peaking during the July-August consumption high [2][59] Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal supply has contracted significantly, with April 2025 coal production down 11.64% month-on-month, primarily due to reductions in output from regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [20][59] - The decline in coal imports, which fell by 16.4% year-on-year in April 2025, is expected to support the domestic market [24][26] - The overall supply reduction is greater than the demand decrease, indicating that coal prices are currently in an oversold state [20][21] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include industry leaders with stable performance such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as growth-oriented companies like Jinkong Coal and Shanmei International [3] - The report highlights the defensive value of leading companies with low debt and high cash flow, which are expected to benefit from market confidence and potential asset injections [2][3] Price Outlook - Thermal coal prices are expected to rebound due to seasonal demand increases and supply tightening, with a peak anticipated during the summer consumption high [2][59] - Coking coal prices are projected to stabilize, supported by a bottoming out of thermal coal prices and potential increases in export demand due to easing trade tensions [2][60]

金十图示：2025年06月04日（周三）富时中国A50指数成分股今日收盘行情一览：消费电子、家电板块飘红，银行股涨跌互现 保险 队 中国人保 中国太保 中国平安 ■ 3670.59亿市值 3375.78亿市值 9789.82亿市值 11.35亿成交额 23.23亿成交额 6.42亿成交额 35.09 8.30 53.76 +0.59(+1.71%) -0.09(-0.17%) -0.02(-0.24%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 五粮液 山西汾酒 18968.08亿市值 2185.93亿市值 4834.54亿市值 34.80亿成交额 24.10亿成交额 13.37亿成交额 1509.96 179.18 124.55 +0.96(+0.06%) -1.92(-1.06%) -0.13(-0.10%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2272.01亿市值 3164.12亿市值 2536.05亿市值 -成交额 8.26亿成交额 29.91亿成交额 425.33 607.50 136.13 +11.64(+1.95%) 0.00(0.00%) +0.56(+0.13%) 汽车整车 铁路公路 比亚迪 长城 ...

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index showed mixed performance among bank stocks, while consumer electronics stocks experienced an upward trend [1] Insurance Sector - China Life Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, and China Ping An had market capitalizations of CNY 366.17 billion, CNY 339.41 billion, and CNY 984.99 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 1.35 billion, CNY 0.43 billion, and CNY 0.75 billion [5] - The stock prices changed as follows: China Life +0.78 (+2.26%), China Pacific +0.24 (+0.45%), China Ping An -0.03 (-0.36%) [5] Alcohol Industry - Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye had market capitalizations of CNY 1900.45 billion, CNY 220.40 billion, and CNY 484.70 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 0.54 billion, CNY 0.94 billion, and CNY 1.63 billion [5] - Stock price changes were: Kweichow Moutai +3.86 (+0.26%), Shanxi Fenjiu -0.44 (-0.24%), Wuliangye +0.19 (+0.15%) [5] Semiconductor Sector - Northern Huachuang and Cambricon Technologies had market capitalizations of CNY 226.95 billion and CNY 254.19 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 2.09 billion and CNY 0.49 billion [5] - Stock price changes included: Northern Huachuang +13.03 (+2.19%), Cambricon Technologies +0.09 (+0.02%) [5] Automotive Sector - BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway had market capitalizations of CNY 1100.23 billion, CNY 193.10 billion, and CNY 283.77 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 3.76 billion, CNY 0.30 billion, and CNY 0.14 billion [5] - Stock price changes were: BYD -0.08 (-1.36%), Great Wall Motors +6.03 (+1.69%), Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway +0.10 (+0.45%) [5] Shipping and Oil Sector - Sinopec, PetroChina, and COSCO Shipping had market capitalizations of CNY 698.37 billion, CNY 1530.55 billion, and CNY 250.31 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 0.23 billion, CNY 0.35 billion, and CNY 0.54 billion [5] - Stock price changes included: Sinopec +0.01 (+0.17%), PetroChina -0.06 (-0.37%), COSCO Shipping +0.06 (+0.72%) [5] Coal and Battery Sector - China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical, and CATL had market capitalizations of CNY 196.32 billion, CNY 778.05 billion, and CNY 1148.85 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 1.85 billion, CNY 0.40 billion, and CNY 0.37 billion [5] - Stock price changes were: China Shenhua -0.01 (-0.03%), Shaanxi Coal -0.21 (-1.03%), CATL +0.83 (+0.33%) [5] Other Sectors - Long江电力, China Nuclear Power, and Dongfang Fortune had market capitalizations of CNY 734.54 billion, CNY 195.40 billion, and CNY 332.68 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 0.68 billion, CNY 0.32 billion, and CNY 3.34 billion [6] - Stock price changes included: Long江电力 +0.39 (+1.89%), China Nuclear Power -0.13 (-0.43%), Dongfang Fortune 0.00 (0.00%) [6]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.43% on June 3, with 20 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains. The top-performing sectors were Beauty Care and Textile & Apparel, with increases of 3.86% and 2.53% respectively. Conversely, the sectors that saw the largest declines were Household Appliances and Steel, down by 2.10% and 1.37% respectively [1]. Coal Industry Performance - The coal industry experienced a decline of 0.84% today, with a net inflow of main funds amounting to 1.1917 million yuan. Out of 37 stocks in this sector, 10 stocks rose while 21 stocks fell [1]. - Among the stocks with net inflows, China Shenhua led with a net inflow of 75.25 million yuan, followed by Jizhong Energy and Huaihe Energy with net inflows of 26.77 million yuan and 12.99 million yuan respectively [1]. - The stocks with significant net outflows included Anyuan Coal Industry, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Jinkong Coal Industry, with net outflows of 28.65 million yuan, 22.61 million yuan, and 18.90 million yuan respectively [1]. Coal Industry Fund Flow Data - The following table summarizes the fund flow data for key coal stocks: - China Shenhua: -0.99% change, 0.17% turnover rate, 75.25 million yuan inflow - Jizhong Energy: -1.19% change, 0.85% turnover rate, 26.77 million yuan inflow - Huaihe Energy: 0.56% change, 1.03% turnover rate, 12.99 million yuan inflow - Anyuan Coal Industry: -4.14% change, 3.42% turnover rate, 28.65 million yuan outflow - Lu'an Environmental Energy: -0.47% change, 0.41% turnover rate, 22.61 million yuan outflow - Jinkong Coal Industry: -1.40% change, 0.93% turnover rate, 18.90 million yuan outflow [1].

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Total Return Index increased by 0.44%, closing at 3766.89 points with a trading volume of 468.29 billion [1] - Over the past month, the index has risen by 2.23%, 1.03% over the last three months, and 0.42% year-to-date [1] - The index includes stocks and depositary receipts listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, accounting for dividend income [1] Index Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the index are: Kweichow Moutai (3.67%), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (3.66%), Agricultural Bank of China (3.39%), China Petroleum (2.58%), Bank of China (2.24%), China Merchants Bank (1.72%), China Life Insurance (1.53%), Yangtze Power (1.42%), China Shenhua Energy (1.25%), and China Telecom (1.20%) [1] - The index is composed entirely of stocks from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a 100% market share [1] Industry Breakdown - The industry composition of the index is as follows: Financials (26.27%), Industrials (18.53%), Information Technology (10.43%), Materials (8.07%), Consumer Staples (7.48%), Energy (7.02%), Consumer Discretionary (6.32%), Health Care (5.94%), Utilities (4.94%), Communication Services (3.76%), and Real Estate (1.24%) [2] - Securities are included in the index based on their market capitalization and time since listing, with specific rules for risk warnings and delisting [2]

长江电力 东方财富 02)中国核电 1951.90亿市值 7330.68亿市值 3284.08亿市值 15.40亿成交额 4.28亿成交额 23.58亿成交额 20.78 29.96 9.49 -0.24(-0.79%) -0.09(-0.94%) +0.16(+0.78%) 食品饮料 证券 中信证券 国泰海通 海天味业 ■双 3808.88亿市值 3169.82亿市值 2455.01亿市值 9.24亿成交额 19.31亿成交额 3.88亿成交额 25.70 17.98 44.15 +0.18(+0.71%) +0.80(+4.66%) -0.27(-0.61%) 消费电子 化学制药 恒瑞医药 立讯精密 工业富联 3747.37亿市值 2201.05亿市值 3663.63亿市值 5.37亿成交额 11.33亿成交额 15.91亿成交额 55.48 30.37 18.87 -0.06(-0.32%) -0.03(-0.10%) +0.74(+1.35%) 家电行业 农牧饲渔 牧原股份 格力电器 海尔智家 油气长官 2525.11亿市值 2326.02亿市值 2241.92亿市值 23.68亿成交额 5.79亿成 ...

Group 1: Bond ETF Market - The bond ETF market has seen significant growth, with over 40 billion yuan in net inflows in May alone, reaching a new high in total scale [1] - On May 30, 10 out of the top 12 ETF products by trading volume were bond ETFs, indicating strong market participation [1] - Nine bond ETFs have been approved for use as collateral in general pledge-style repurchase agreements, which may accelerate the expansion of the bond ETF market [1] Group 2: Public Fund Issuance - In May, bond funds dominated the public fund issuance market with a 55.07% issuance ratio, while equity products faced uneven demand [1] - The issuance of ETFs has declined for four consecutive months, raising only 11.068 billion units in May [1] - The market reflects a struggle between stability and change, with bond funds providing a safety net while equity products seek growth in niche segments [1] Group 3: Private Equity and ETF Investment - Private equity firms have shown strong interest in newly listed ETFs, with 104 firms holding a total of 1.783 billion shares in 97 ETFs [2] - The preferred themes for private equity investments are technology innovation and free cash flow [2] Group 4: Insurance Companies' Stock Purchases - As of the end of May, seven insurance companies have made 15 stock purchases this year, surpassing the total for 2023 and the first nine months of 2024 [2] - The majority of these purchases have been in bank stocks, with additional investments in public utilities, energy, and transportation sectors [2] Group 5: Corporate Developments - 28 companies have successfully removed their ST (Special Treatment) status this year, primarily through financial improvements, internal control repairs, and bankruptcy restructuring [3] - The airline industry is expected to see improved profitability due to falling oil prices and recovering demand, with a projected net profit margin of 3.7% for 2025 [3] - Domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers reported significant sales growth in May, with several companies achieving monthly sales exceeding 40,000 units, driven by extended-range vehicles [4] Group 6: Tesla's Sales Decline - Tesla's sales in France plummeted by 67% in May, marking the lowest sales level in nearly three years, despite the launch of a new version of its Model Y [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Port coal inventories are declining, and thermal coal prices have stopped falling. As of May 30, the coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week but up 18.83% year-on-year. The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. The approaching summer peak electricity demand is expected to support a rebound in coal prices [1][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.03% week-on-week. The average price for mixed thermal coal at Yulin was 475 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week. The FOB price for thermal coal at Newcastle, Australia, was 67 USD/ton, down 2.14% [2]. Production and Utilization - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 61.6%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week and down 7.3 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 90.69%, down 0.63 percentage points week-on-week but up 2.52 percentage points year-on-year. The average daily pig iron output was 2.4185 million tons, down 0.7% week-on-week but up 2.6% year-on-year [3]. Inventory Tracking - As of May 30, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 6.75 million tons, down 7.53% week-on-week and up 42.41% year-on-year. The Bohai Rim port coal inventory was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week and up 18.83% year-on-year. The inventory levels at independent coking plants and sample steel mills are currently at low levels [4][53]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the seasonal increase in electricity demand during the summer is likely to support a rebound in coal prices. It recommends companies with a high proportion of long-term contracts and stable profitability, specifically China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with China Shenhua's EPS forecast for 2025 at 2.5 CNY and a PE ratio of 16. The investment rating for China Shenhua is "Accumulate" [5].