Core Points - New City Holdings announced plans for direct financing not exceeding 20 billion yuan [1] - The company will hold board and shareholder meetings on March 27 and May 26, 2025, to approve the financing proposal [1] - Guojin Securities Asset Management plans to issue a real estate asset-backed special plan with a scale of 616 million yuan [1] - As of the announcement date, all subscription funds have been transferred to the special plan's custody account, meeting the target fundraising scale [1] - The special plan officially established on November 28, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings has successfully issued the first consumption-type real estate asset-backed securities (ABS) in China, marking a significant milestone in the industry with a total issuance scale of 616 million yuan and a debt portion of 410 million yuan, with a term of approximately 25 years [2][3][4]. Group 1: Asset and Market Position - The underlying asset for the ABS is the Wuyue Plaza located in the core area of the Qingpu District, which benefits from a large customer base of over 400,000 residents from more than 160 surrounding communities [3]. - Since its opening in 2014, Wuyue Plaza has maintained a high occupancy rate and has seen steady growth in key metrics such as foot traffic, revenue, and profit, establishing itself as a regional commercial leader [3][4]. - New City Holdings has a strategic presence in 141 cities with 205 comprehensive projects, achieving a high occupancy rate of 97.7% across 176 operational and managed properties [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Growth - In the first three quarters of the year, New City Holdings reported a total commercial operating revenue of approximately 10.511 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.82% [6]. - The total foot traffic at Wuyue Plaza reached 950 million visits, a year-on-year increase of 16%, with total sales exceeding 51.5 billion yuan, also up by 16.5% [6]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - The issuance of the ABS aligns with New City Holdings' strategic shift from "real estate development and sales" to "asset operation," optimizing its asset-liability structure and enhancing the management of commercial real estate [4]. - The company has established a robust mechanism for continuous fundraising through the ABS, allowing for the acquisition of quality assets and promoting sustainable product development [5]. - The successful issuance of this ABS serves as a benchmark for private real estate companies, showcasing New City Holdings' leading capabilities in asset operation and innovative financing [4].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Wuyue Plaza Holding-type ABS" marks a significant milestone as it is the first consumer-oriented holding-type real estate ABS in China and the first issued by a private enterprise listed on A-shares [1] Group 1 - The project was successfully established on November 28, with an issuance scale of 616 million yuan [1] - The underlying asset for this ABS is the Wuyue Plaza shopping center project located in Qingpu, Shanghai [1] - The issuer of this ABS is Xincheng Holdings (601155) [1]

专项计划的基本情况如下： 证券代码：601155 证券简称：新城控股 编号：2025-053 新城控股集团股份有限公司 关于国金资管-吾悦广场持有型不动产 资产支持专项计划成立的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 新城控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"新城控股"）于 2025 年 3 月 27 日召开第四届董事会第八次会议，并于 2025 年 5 月 26 日召开 2024 年年度股 东大会，审议通过了《关于公司开展直接融资工作的议案》，同意公司（含控股子 公司）进行规模不超过等额人民币 200 亿元（含境外等值外币）的直接融资，包括 但不限于企业债券、中期票据、短期融资券、超短期融资券、定向债务融资工具、 资产支持票据、资产支持证券、REITs、Pre-REITs、类 REITs、项目收益票据、永 续债等在中国银行间交易市场、境内外证券交易所等境内外合法的债券市场发行/ 举借的，以人民币或外币计价的各类权益融资及债务融资品种。同时，为保证直接 融资工作的顺利进行，股东大会同意授权董事会及其授权人士公 ...

Market Overview - The real estate development sector experienced a decline of 0.44% on November 26, with China Wuyi leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3864.18, down 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12907.83, up 1.02% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the real estate sector included: - Wantong Development (600246) with a closing price of 12.68, up 9.97% [1] - Zhangjiang Hi-Tech (600895) at 42.37, up 5.24% [1] - ST Zhongdi (000609) at 13.31, up 4.97% [1] - Major decliners included: - China Wuyi (000797) at 3.44, down 6.78% [2] - Caixin Development (000838) at 3.43, down 4.99% [2] - Binhai Group (002244) at 10.07, down 4.73% [2] Capital Flow - The real estate development sector saw a net outflow of 509 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 342 million yuan [2] - The detailed capital flow for selected stocks showed: - Zhangjiang Hi-Tech (600895) had a net inflow of 3.75 billion yuan from institutional investors [3] - Wantong Development (600246) saw a net inflow of 3.14 billion yuan from institutional investors [3] - Tianjian Group (000090) had a net inflow of 4383.86 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a decline in real estate stocks, with several companies experiencing significant drops in their share prices [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Binjiang Group and China Wuyi both fell over 5% [1] - Caixin Development dropped nearly 5% [1] - I Love My Home, Sanxiang Impression, and Hefei Urban Construction all decreased by over 3% [1] - Huaxia Happiness, Jindi Group, Te Fa Service, China National Trade, China Merchants Shekou, New Town Holdings, and Vanke A all saw declines exceeding 2% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [6] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing significant downward pressure on both volume and price, necessitating new policy measures to boost confidence [16][20] - Short-term policies such as mortgage interest subsidies and personal income tax deductions are expected to be implemented to alleviate the current market downturn [39] - The report highlights a potential for structural recovery in the housing market, particularly in first-tier cities, if purchasing restrictions are fully lifted [39] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The real estate market is facing increased downward pressure, with sales volume and prices declining significantly. In October 2025, cumulative sales area decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, and sales value dropped by 9.6% [16] - The report notes that the sales area for new homes in 45 cities totaled 2.72 million square meters, with first-tier cities experiencing a year-on-year decline of 43.19% [5] 2. Policy Directions - The report anticipates policy measures focusing on loosening purchase restrictions, providing mortgage interest subsidies, and implementing personal income tax deductions to stimulate demand [28][31] - There is a growing expectation for the central government to engage in large-scale market-oriented housing stockpiling to stabilize the market [37] 3. Stock Market and Credit Bonds - The A-share real estate sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 5.83%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector outperformed with a decline of 4.94% [41][53] - As of November 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of real estate credit bonds reached 3,815.39 billion, with a net financing amount of -421.33 billion [41] 4. REITs Market - The REITs index experienced a decline of 1.12% this week, with transaction volumes decreasing by 8.80% [3][12] 5. Land Market - The report indicates a significant increase in land supply and transaction area across major cities, with a 92.79% increase in supply and a 24.37% increase in transaction area [4] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three areas within the real estate sector: commercial real estate (e.g., New Town Holdings, China Resources), property management (e.g., Greentown Service), and real estate brokerage (e.g., Beike, Wo Ai Wo Jia) [40]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - In the first ten months of 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 9% year-on-year, while the average floor price increased by 15% [1][51] - The top three companies in terms of new land reserve value from January to October 2025 are China Overseas Land & Investment (119.9 billion), China Merchants Shekou (103.4 billion), and Greentown China (65.1 billion) [2][87] - The core 30 cities saw a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 3% in residential land transaction area, but a 22% increase in average price [2][3] Summary by Sections Land Supply and Demand - In the first ten months of 2025, the total land supply in 100 cities was 1.113 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%, while the total land transaction area was 946 million square meters, down 7% [8] - The supply of residential land in 100 cities for the same period was 239 million square meters, a decrease of 19.1% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 184 million square meters, down 9.3% [18] Land Transaction Prices - The average floor price of residential land in 100 cities for the first ten months of 2025 was 6,597 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [51][62] - In the core 30 cities, the average floor price for residential land transactions was 11,423 yuan per square meter, up 21.8% year-on-year [3][95] Top 50 Real Estate Companies' Land Acquisition - The top 50 real estate companies saw a 55% year-on-year increase in new land reserve value, totaling 908.4 billion yuan from January to October 2025 [78] - The top three companies by new land reserve area are China Overseas Land & Investment (4.15 million square meters), Poly Developments (3.51 million square meters), and China Merchants Shekou (3.07 million square meters) [2][87] Core 30 Cities Land Transaction Situation - In October 2025, the core 30 cities recorded 133 residential land transactions, with a total area of 855 million square meters, down 43% year-on-year [92] - The cumulative total land transaction price in the core 30 cities from January to October 2025 was 946.5 billion yuan, an increase of 17.8% year-on-year [95][102] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong brand reputation and sales performance in core cities, such as Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou [4][118] - Consider companies with rich existing resources and operational brand competitiveness, like China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [4][118] - Look for long-term growth potential in property services, recommending companies like China Merchants Jinling and Greentown Services [4][118]

Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Property** market, specifically analyzing data from October 2025 and projecting challenges into the first quarter of 2026 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Home Sales Decline**: Home sales in October experienced a significant decline, with primary sales volume in 65 cities dropping by **32% year-on-year** and secondary sales volume in 33 cities declining by **33% year-on-year**. This is a stark contrast to the previous month where primary sales were down only **8%** and secondary sales were up **10%** [3]. 2. **Accelerated Price Decline**: The **NBS 70-city primary home prices** fell by **2.6% year-on-year** and **0.5% month-on-month**, while secondary prices dropped by **5.4% year-on-year** and **0.7% month-on-month**. Tier 1 cities saw a deeper decline in secondary prices, with a **0.9% month-on-month** drop [4]. 3. **Inventory Levels**: Primary inventory months increased to **26 times** in October, indicating a rise in unsold properties. Tier 1 cities saw inventory rise to **15.4 times**, tier 2 to **25.3 times**, and tier 3 to **35.5 times** [6]. 4. **Land Sales**: Land sales in 300 cities dropped by **21% year-on-year** in gross floor area (GFA) and **26% year-on-year** in value, contributing to a year-to-date decline of **11.2%** in GFA [7]. 5. **Market Sentiment**: The residential sentiment is rapidly worsening, influenced by high inventory levels and reactive policy measures. This sentiment is expected to persist into the first quarter of 2026 [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises a **defensive and selective investment strategy**, recommending accumulation of quality State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) with high alpha opportunities, such as **CR Land (1109.HK)** and **C&D (1908.HK)**, which are seen as long-term market consolidators with attractive dividend yields. **Seazen (601155.SS)** is also highlighted for its robust mall rental and private REIT divestment [2]. Additional Insights - **Client Engagement**: Client visits increased by **3% year-on-year** and **3% month-on-month**, indicating a slight uptick in market engagement despite the overall negative sentiment [5]. - **Listing Volume**: New secondary listings softened to **-7% month-on-month** and **-7% year-on-year**, while total listings remained stable with a **0.1% month-on-month** increase [5]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China Property market, highlighting significant declines in sales and prices, rising inventory levels, and strategic investment recommendations.

分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 定向降低购房负担意味着什么？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 深度降息在宏观和银行层面有较多约束，贴息或者抵税是定向降息的主要手段。怎么贴是关键， 持续性比幅度和范围更重要，如果只是补贴有限年份，本质与一次性优惠没有区别，稳价效果 可能相对有限。如果只补贴新房，初期政策成本较小，但后期将逐步累加，并且加大新房对存 量的替代；如果兼顾存量，政策成本则明显提高。关于房价，收入预期比利率本身更重要，贴 息可逐步解决回报率倒挂问题，但收入预期有赖于总需求扩张或分配改革。综合而言，定向降 低购房负担，对好房子的"小循环"有一定支撑，有助于"增量带动存量"逻辑的进一步演绎。 [Table_Author] 刘义 侯兆熔 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 定向降低购房负担意味着什么？ 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 ...