Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities and banking sectors, while also recommending a focus on quality insurance companies [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights investment opportunities in the order of securities > banking > insurance, emphasizing the optimization of performance evaluation rules for fund companies, which is expected to enhance long-term incentive mechanisms and promote sustainable development in the fund industry [12][31]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced new regulations to strengthen governance and oversight across the entire lifecycle of listed companies, which is anticipated to improve market stability and investor confidence [15][16]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to support liquidity, particularly during the year-end and Spring Festival periods, with major banks expected to begin distributing mid-term dividends [31][33]. Summary by Sections Securities - The CSRC has proposed to relax capital and leverage restrictions for high-quality securities firms, which is expected to enhance their operational efficiency [14]. - In November, the number of new A-share accounts increased by 3% month-on-month, with a year-to-date growth of 8%, indicating sustained market interest [18]. - The report recommends focusing on high-quality brokers with low price-to-book (PB) ratios, including CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and GF Securities [12][13]. Banking - The PBOC's recent reverse repurchase operations are aimed at ensuring ample liquidity in the market, especially during high-demand periods [31][32]. - The report notes that the banking sector's PB ratio is currently at 0.71, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels, suggesting potential for recovery [31]. - Recommended banking stocks include Nanjing Bank, Chengdu Bank, and Shanghai Bank, which are considered high-quality picks [31][33]. Insurance - The insurance sector has shown resilience, with regulatory adjustments to risk factors for equity investments leading to a significant increase in stock prices [46]. - The report suggests that investors should focus on leading insurance companies, such as China Life and Ping An, which are expected to benefit from improved liquidity conditions [46][47]. - Regulatory changes are aimed at encouraging long-term investments by insurance companies, which could enhance their stability and support economic growth [48][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the brokerage sector, indicating a potential for gradual realization of the sector's rebound logic [3]. Core Insights - The recent speech by the chairman of the China Securities Association has shifted market expectations positively for the brokerage sector, with a strong certainty of an upward adjustment in the long-term ROE central [3]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. The attractiveness of the equity market will benefit wealth management and asset management businesses of brokerages, with a specific recommendation for Dongfang Securities [3]. 2. Companies benefiting from an improved competitive landscape, with key recommendations including Guotai Junan, GF Securities, and CITIC Securities [3]. 3. Valuation mismatches in Huatai Securities A+H and strong international business competitiveness in China Galaxy and CICC [3]. Market Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4,584.54, with a weekly change of +1.28%. The non-bank index closed at 1,975.96, with a weekly change of +2.27%. The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported changes of +1.14%, +5.08%, and +0.49%, respectively [6]. - The average daily trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 16,962.89 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 61.08% compared to the previous year [17]. Non-Bank Industry Data - As of December 5, 2025, the 10-year government bond yield was 1.85%, with a weekly change of +1.14 basis points. The credit spread for corporate bonds was 0.54%, with a weekly change of +3.61 basis points [11]. - The insurance sector's original premium income for the first ten months of 2025 reached 5.48 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8% [28]. Individual Stock Highlights - In the insurance sector, notable A-share performances included China Pacific Insurance (+8.23%), Ping An (+5.09%), and China Life (+4.32%) [8]. - In the brokerage sector, the top performers included Zhongyin Securities (+7.89%) and Xingye Securities (+6.35%) [8].

Report Overview - The report is a weekly log report from Guotai Junan Futures, dated December 7, 2025, focusing on the log market, including supply, demand, inventory, price trends, and other influencing factors [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The log market's fundamentals maintain a weak supply - demand pattern, with the futures market showing weak and volatile trends, and spot prices remaining stable [20] Summary by Directory 1. Supply - As of November 30, 41 ships departed from New Zealand in November, with 34 going to mainland China and 7 to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that 12 ships will arrive in November and 29 in December, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.41 million cubic meters in November [5][8] 2. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of November 28, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 10,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,100 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 900 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.3688 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 6,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 452,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 50,800 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 274,100 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 35,400 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 160,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 13,600 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.2555 million cubic meters, an increase of 78,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][14] 3. Market Trends - As of December 5, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 765.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. The futures market continued its weak and volatile trend, and the monthly spread changed little this week. The 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 13 yuan per cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 24.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 11.5 yuan per cubic meter [20] 4. Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: For the mainstream deliverable 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 750 yuan per cubic meter, and the Jiangsu market quoted 740 yuan per cubic meter, both remaining unchanged from the previous week. The prices of other specifications and tree species also remained stable [4][24] - **Regional Spread**: The report analyzed the price spreads of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu regions, including 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [26][29] - **Tree Species and Specification Spread**: It analyzed the price spreads between different specifications of radiata pine, such as the spread between 3.9 - meter 30 + and 40 + radiata pine, and the spread between 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine and 5.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine [41][43] 5. Other - As of the week of December 7, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,814.00 points, a 254 - point (9.9%) increase from the previous week. The Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 841 points, a 1.7% increase from the previous week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,397.63 points, a 0.4% decrease from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index weakened, with the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate at 7.071, a 0.11% week - on - week decrease, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate dropping 0.8% to 1.73 [56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand difference expectation for coal and coke is weak, and the valuation has been revised downward [3]. - The auction non - success rate of coking coal in online auctions remains high. Coke enterprises still expect a continuous decline in raw material spot prices, with low procurement sentiment. Downstream blast furnace production has decreased again on a week - on - week basis [4]. - The recovery of origin supply is still slow, but Mongolia maintains a high traffic volume. The market still has strong expectations for the recovery of future source production. The overseas interest - rate cut expectation has gradually become a consensus, but the domestic risk preference reflects the expectation of insufficient policy intervention. The current coal is in the supply - guarantee cycle, and the market's expectation for the recovery of future coal supply is still strong. Coupled with the blast furnace start - up data that has reached a phased peak, the demand space for coal and coke is also suppressed to some extent, leading to a significant decline in the previously high valuation of coal and coke recently [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Category | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 853.4 (-2.68); FW clean coal 438.18 (-0.57) | Independent coking plants' daily average 64.53 (+0.77); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 46.62 (+0.30) | | Demand | Hot metal production 232.3 (-2.38) | Hot metal production 232.3 (-2.38) | | Inventory | MS total inventory +40.7; Mine clean coal +23.1; Independent coking -1.1; Mine raw coal +19.7; Steel mill coking -3.0; Port +2.0; FW port +6.6 | MS total inventory -1.7; Independent coking -6.1; Steel mill -0.3; Port +4.7 | | Profit | Commodity coal 543 (-16) | Average profit of coking enterprises 30 (-16) | | Warehouse receipt | Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1195 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1621 | [7] 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Supply - There are data on weekly and monthly production of coking coal, including 523 sample mine production, FW raw coal and clean coal production, and coking coal production from different sources. Mongolia's coal customs clearance data for different ports are also provided [9][11][13]. 3.2.2 Inventory - Pit - mouth inventory: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample mines increased by 26.52 tons week - on - week to 194.67 tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 20.06 tons week - on - week to 127.61 tons. - Port inventory: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 296.5 tons, an increase of 2 tons week - on - week. - Coking plant inventory: There are data on inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking enterprises, including overall and regional data. - Steel mill inventory: There are data on inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises, including overall and regional data [24][26][29][35]. 3.3 Coke Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Capacity utilization: There are data on the capacity utilization of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises, including overall and regional data, and data for different production capacities [38][40]. - Output: There are data on the daily output of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises, including overall and historical data [42][44]. 3.3.2 Inventory - Coking plant inventory: There are data on the inventory of independent coking enterprises, including overall and historical data. - Steel mill inventory: There are data on the inventory, average available days, and regional inventory of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants. - Total inventory: There are data on the total inventory of coke, including overall and historical data [46][47][52]. 3.3.3 Demand - There is data on the daily output of hot metal of 247 steel enterprises, which reflects the demand for coke [54]. 3.3.4 Profit - There are data on the profit of coking enterprises, including ton - coke average profit and ton - coke futures profit [57][58]. 3.4 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices 3.4.1 Futures - Coking coal futures: There are data on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of coking coal 2605 and 2601 futures contracts from November 28 to December 5, 2025, as well as the price change data [63]. - Coke futures: There are data on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of coke 2601 and 2605 futures contracts from November 28 to December 5, 2025, as well as the price change data [65]. 3.4.2 Spot - There are data on the spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke, including car - loading prices of coking coal and summary prices of coke [71]. 3.4.3 Basis - The prices of double - coke futures are weak, and the basis remains high [74].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 07 日 券商板块信心提振，补涨逻辑有望 逐步兑现 看好 ——非银金融行业周报（2025/12/1-2025/12/5） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 评 非银金融 - ⚫ 券商：本周申万券商 II 指数收涨 1.14%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.14pct。中证协第八次会员大会上吴清主 席讲话扭转市场对券商板块预期，证券业中长期 ROE 中枢上移确定性强。1）适度拓宽优质券商资本空间 与杠杆上限：会上，吴清主席提到" 在监管政策上，我们将着力强化分类监管、"扶优限劣"。对优质机 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to appropriately relax regulations for high-quality institutions, optimizing risk control indicators and opening up capital space and leverage limits to improve capital utilization efficiency [4] - The National Internet Information Office is soliciting public opinions on the draft of the "Network Data Security Risk Assessment Measures," which requires annual risk assessments for network data processing activities involving important data [4] Group 2 - The Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. highlighted two significant factors that provide new opportunities for the development of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations, including frequent interactions between the two countries' leaders and China's 14th Five-Year Plan [5] - China successfully launched 14 low-orbit satellites for satellite internet, marking a significant achievement in its commercial space endeavors [6] Group 3 - Indigo Airlines in India has canceled thousands of flights over five days due to new government regulations affecting pilot scheduling, resulting in significant passenger delays [10] - The "Crazy Animal City 2" film has surpassed 2.8 billion yuan in box office revenue, making it one of the top two imported films in Chinese box office history [8] Group 4 - The chairman of Guotai Junan Securities, Zhu Jian, was elected as the president of the China Securities Association, which may promote industry norms and deepen capital market reforms [17] - The company DiAo Microelectronics announced the termination of its strategic acquisition of Rongpai Semiconductor, which may impact its future expansion speed and market sentiment [18] - The vice president of China People's Insurance Group, Yu Ze, is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law, reflecting compliance risks in the insurance industry [19]

2025.12. 06 本文字数：1028，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 周楠 中国证券业协会（下称"中证协"）新一届负责人名单出炉。 12月6日，中证协第八次会员大会在京召开，选举产生了协会第八届理事会、监事会。国泰海通证券党 委书记、董事长朱健当选为第八届协会常务理事、会长。 中证协成立30多年来，此前先后有七位会长（或理事长），分别为郭振乾、常振明、庄心一、黄湘 平、陈共炎、安青松、赵山忠。多人曾在监管系统任职，其中庄心一曾任证监会副主席，黄湘平曾任湖 北证监局党委书记、局长兼武汉稽查局局长。 2021年之后，中证协的两任会长安青松、赵山忠，也均来自监管部门。其中，安青松曾任证监会上市 公司监管部副主任、青岛证监局局长、天津证监局局长等；赵山忠也曾是地方局负责人，曾任重庆证监 局党委书记、局长。 简历显示，朱健1971年6月出生，现年54岁，曾任中国证监会上海证管办信息调研处副处长，中国证 监会上海监管局信息调研处副处长、处长，中国证监会上海监管局办公室主任、机构二处处长，中国证 监会上海监管局局长助理、副局长，国泰君安副总裁。 2023年12月底，朱健重回"老东家"，担任国泰君安证券董事长， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese securities industry is urged to focus on high-quality development, enhancing service capabilities, and fostering a robust investment banking environment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the importance of serving the real economy and protecting investor rights [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Development Goals - The industry is transitioning from a focus on scale and profit to prioritizing functionality and high-quality development, with an emphasis on serving the real economy [2][3]. - There is a call for the industry to enhance its service capabilities, particularly in IPOs and mergers and acquisitions, while also improving wealth management services and cross-border financial services [3][5]. - The importance of innovation in financial products and services is highlighted, with a focus on integrating technologies like AI, big data, and blockchain to foster high-quality development [4][6]. Group 2: Compliance and Risk Management - Compliance and risk management are deemed essential for the survival of industry institutions, with a need for improved governance and transaction management to protect investors and maintain market order [6][7]. - The industry is encouraged to strengthen its risk prevention measures, particularly in high-risk areas such as margin trading and private asset management [6]. Group 3: Cultural and Structural Improvements - The need for a strong industry culture is emphasized, advocating for long-termism and reputation management to enhance the industry's image and attract talent [7]. - The restructuring of firms, such as the merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong, is seen as a positive step towards optimizing industry structure and achieving greater efficiency [7].

Group 1 - The core message of the meeting emphasizes the need for the new leadership of the China Securities Association to enhance member recognition, cohesion, and participation to improve collaborative governance and shared effectiveness [1] - The eighth member congress of the China Securities Association elected new leadership, including Zhu Jian as the president and several other industry representatives as executive vice presidents and directors [2] - The newly elected leadership includes prominent figures from various securities firms, indicating a diverse representation within the association [2][3] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of the association's role in promoting high-quality development in the capital market through a first-class investment banking and investment institution framework [1] - The election results reflect a strategic move towards strengthening the association's governance structure by involving industry representatives in key positions [2] - The new leadership aims to foster a collaborative environment among members to enhance the overall effectiveness of the association [1][2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the election of the new leadership for the China Securities Association during its eighth member congress held in Beijing on December 6 [1] - Zhu Jian, the Party Secretary and Chairman of Guotai Junan Securities, was elected as the Executive Director and President of the eighth council of the China Securities Association [1]