Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive market response to Miniso's stock, which saw an increase of over 4% during trading, with a current price of 38.38 HKD and a trading volume of 38.41 million HKD [1] - The release of "Zootopia 2" has significantly boosted its box office performance, surpassing 3 billion CNY in total revenue within 12 days of release, indicating strong consumer interest and engagement [1] - There are over 70 brands in China that have collaborated with "Zootopia 2," with a focus on the trendy toy sector, where companies like Pop Mart, Miniso, and 52TOYS are actively participating [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan has revised its profit forecasts for Miniso, lowering the adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 to 2.998 billion, 3.474 billion, and 4.179 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a slight decrease in expectations [1] - Despite the profit forecast adjustments, the company is experiencing improved operational data and store openings both domestically and internationally, with TOPTOY entering a high growth phase contributing to incremental revenue [1] - The valuation for Miniso is set at 18x PE for 2026, with a target market capitalization of 62.5 billion CNY, and the target price has been adjusted to 55.50 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the securities sector, with the National Securities Leading Index rising by 3.86% and individual stocks like Industrial Securities and Huatai Securities showing significant gains [1] - The Securities ETF Leader has seen continuous net inflows over the past three days, totaling 25.27 million yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 12.74 million yuan [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to enhance classified regulation, easing restrictions for high-quality institutions to improve capital efficiency [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that 43 listed securities firms achieved a year-on-year net profit growth of 64% in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly outperforming the market [1] - The adjustment of margin financing limits by leading brokerages is expected to face leverage constraints, which may impact the expansion of capital intermediary businesses [2] - The CSRC's emphasis on a capital-saving, high-quality development path for securities firms has led to a near halt in equity financing, highlighting the need for flexible capital supply and leverage utilization [2] Group 3 - The National Securities Leading Index closely tracks the performance of quality listed companies in the securities theme, providing investors with diversified index investment tools [3] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Leading Index account for 79.05% of the index, with companies like Dongfang Wealth and CITIC Securities among the top [3]

业绩简述：25Q3实现营收57.97亿/+28.2%，国内营收+19.3%，国际业务+27.7%，Toptoy+111.5%。归母 净利润4.41亿/-31.4%，经调整净利润7.67亿/+11.7%，经调整EBITDA13.54亿/+18.8%。 国内及海外同店均延续改善趋势 ①收入略超预期，业绩符合预期其中：国内收入+19.3%vs预期中高双位数增长;国内计算单店+10%vs预 期高单位数增长。海外计算单店收入+7.9%，环比25Q2改善，与公司公告低个位数同店增长趋势一致。 ②25Q3净增233家(国内+102/海外+117/TopToy+14)，目前8,138家(国内4407/海外3424/TopToy307)。③国 内及海外开店均环比明显加速：此前公司战略聚焦开质量更好的大店，并兼顾门店数量和同店指标。本 季在同店指标有明显改善情况下，开店亦有明显加速，侧面反映目前门店的店型和品类调整取得效果。 国泰海通发布研报称，考虑名创优品(09896)海外直营店仍在投入阶段，下调公司2025-27年经调整归母 净利润至29.98/34.74/41.79(-0.24/-0.68/-0.01)亿元人民币。考虑公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities has downgraded Miniso's adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to RMB 2.998 billion, 3.474 billion, and 4.179 billion, reflecting a decrease of RMB 0.24 billion, 0.68 billion, and 0.01 billion respectively, due to ongoing investments in overseas direct stores [1] Group 1: Performance Overview - In Q3 2025, Miniso achieved revenue of RMB 5.797 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, with domestic revenue growing by 19.3% and international business by 27.7%, while TopToy saw a remarkable growth of 111.5% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 441 million, down 31.4%, while adjusted net profit was RMB 767 million, up 11.7%, and adjusted EBITDA reached RMB 1.354 billion, an increase of 18.8% [2] Group 2: Store Performance and Expansion - Both domestic and international same-store sales continued to show improvement, with domestic revenue exceeding expectations at +19.3% compared to a forecast of high double-digit growth, and domestic same-store sales up by 10% against expectations of high single-digit growth [3] - In Q3 2025, the company added 233 new stores (102 domestic, 117 international, and 14 TopToy), bringing the total to 8,138 stores (4,407 domestic, 3,424 international, and 307 TopToy) [3] - The acceleration in store openings reflects the company's strategic focus on higher-quality large stores while balancing store count and same-store metrics, indicating positive adjustments in store types and categories [3] Group 3: Cost Structure and Strategic Initiatives - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 44.7%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with rising sales expense ratios primarily due to investments in overseas direct stores [4] - The sales expense ratio has shown a narrowing trend, indicating improved efficiency in the use of sales expenses, with Q1 showing a year-on-year increase of 4.8 percentage points, Q2 at 3.2 percentage points, and Q3 at 1.4 percentage points [4] - The acceleration in store openings amidst same-store improvements suggests that the company's adjustments in domestic stores are in a positive cycle, which is expected to significantly boost valuation [4]

看好证券保险岁末年初行情！20251207 摘要 监管鼓励券商整合，支持并购重组，旨在提升行业集中度和竞争力，头 部券商如国泰海通的并购案例显示出规模效应，预示行业整合加速。 监管提倡价值竞争，转变过去的价格竞争模式，通过提供高质量服务获 客，稳定费率，促进券商行业健康发展，公募基金费率改革已落地，券 商轻资产业务费率预期触底。 险资偿付能力新规调整风险因子，降低了沪深 300、科创板股票及出口 信用保险业务的风险权重，支持长期资金入市，缓解了中小保险公司的 资本补充压力。 截至 2025 年 9 月末，险资二级市场权益配置规模达 5.59 万亿元，较 2024 年末增加 1.49 万亿元，配置比例接近 15%，提升 2.6 个百分点， 险资入市进程超预期。 调降股票投资风险因子预计为 A 股上市险企带来 789 亿元的股票增配空 间，并优化最低资本 200 亿元，核心和综合偿付能力充足率平均提升 1.5 和 2.1 个百分点。 末已大幅消除。此外，中金办理发行股份收购信达中心等并购事件也推动了整 个板块的表现。 吴清主席强调监管逐步回暖，并充分肯定过去四年多来证券公 司的整体发展，包括总资产、净资产及服务实 ...

Core Insights - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the issue of electricity shortages in the U.S. has become a clear and certain fact, with the gap expected to expand before 2030, leading to a clearer investment logic in the industry [1] - The need for systematic solutions on the power supply side is emphasized, focusing on natural gas (including CCGT and OCGT small gas turbines), wind and solar storage, while coal power is suggested as a backup solution to address gaps during implementation [1] Group 1 - The U.S. electricity system faces a "trilemma" under the impact of AI, where the goals of reliability, decarbonization, and cost efficiency for data center customers are in a zero-sum game [2] - The U.S. energy system has shifted to a structure dominated by natural gas and clean energy, with coal power accounting for less than 15% [2] - The aging electricity grid, with an average lifespan exceeding 40 years, lacks sufficient baseload capacity to meet expected peak demand growth, leading to regional disconnections in the short term [2] Group 2 - The projected electricity supply balance for the U.S. in 2030 indicates that wind and solar storage will contribute approximately 40% of new electricity generation, while natural gas remains the core for grid reliability and electricity supply [3] - New technologies like SOFC are emerging but are expected to have a minor contribution, while large-scale nuclear energy deployment is anticipated to occur after 2032 [3] - Coal power is expected to see delayed retirements, potentially decreasing its output but serving as a stabilizing force in the energy system [3]

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，吴清主席致辞提出对优质机构适当"松绑"，进一步优化风控 指标，适度打开资本空间和杠杆限制。优化资本杠杆的背后本质在于推动行业经营从规模导向转向风险 定价，从牌照红利转向专业经营，预计券商未来将更重以专业性实现盈利，这是对于优质头部券商的重 要利好，也是板块估值修复的重要催化。 风险提示：政策落地不及预期；资本市场大幅波动。 我国券商杠杆率显著低于国内外金融同业，除了商业模式的差异外，监管约束也是重要方面(尤其是对 于头部券商)。25H1末上市券商平均杠杆率3.3x，国泰海通、中信证券仅4.5、4.3x，而同期国内银行 业、高盛、大摩杠杆率分别12.2x、14.4x、12.5x。对于头部券商，监管在风控指标、衍生品业务等方面 的约束是限制资本杠杆进一步提升的重要方面。 若资本杠杆优化，有望打开券商业务发展及ROE长期成长空间。现行框架下，券商理论杠杆上限约为 6x(优质头部实际更高)，长远来看，随着两融、衍生品、跨境等资本中介业务的增长，优质头部券商运 用杠杆的能力更强，有望充分受益政策优化带来的ROE成长空间。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 事件：12月6日，吴清主席在中国证 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese stock market is expected to enter a cross-year offensive after a prolonged period of sideways movement, with a favorable window from December to February for policy, liquidity, and fundamentals to resonate positively, leading to a potential rise in indices [3][4][44] - Recent market stabilization and rebound, particularly with a rise in brokerage and insurance stocks, have activated market sentiment, indicating a shift towards a more optimistic outlook [4][45] - Anticipated macroeconomic policies are expected to become more proactive, with expectations of expanded fiscal deficits and supportive measures for economic development as the 2026 economic work conference approaches [4][45] Group 2 - The demand for asset management in China is projected to surge as traditional fixed asset investments decline and high-yield, risk-free financial assets diminish, marking 2026 as a pivotal year for transitioning from fixed income to fixed income plus [5][46] - The upcoming peak year for three-year time deposits in 2026, with yields significantly lower than in 2023, indicates a strong need for capital reallocation and diversification [5][46] - The expected influx of insurance capital into the market, driven by regulatory changes, could reach trillions, further opening up investment opportunities [5][46] Group 3 - The capital market is entering a new historical phase, acting as a crucial link between social and economic development, with a shift towards knowledge-intensive and capital-intensive industries [6][47] - The market capitalization structure reflects this change, with manufacturing, TMT, and financial sectors leading, while real estate's influence diminishes [6][47] - The reduction of uncertainties in economic development and the anticipated 10.6% growth in non-financial A-share earnings in 2026 highlight the market's potential for growth [6][47] Group 4 - The stock market is expected to see a resonance of policy, liquidity, and fundamentals from December to February, with a focus on technology, finance, and consumer sectors [7][48] - Key recommendations include technology growth driven by advancements in AI and computing infrastructure, as well as opportunities in the financial sector due to capital market reforms [7][48] - Consumer stocks are also highlighted for their potential recovery, particularly in food and beverage, agriculture, and tourism sectors, as macroeconomic risks decrease [7][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market is expected to experience a weak consolidation. Overseas peak production periods will increase supply, exerting more pressure on the market than the sentiment of domestic production areas entering the off - season. Thai raw material prices may decline rapidly. With seasonal inventory accumulation pressure and the off - season of terminal demand, there is no obvious positive driver in the short - term, and rubber prices may remain slightly weak [102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - Thailand lifted the emergency state in Songkhla Province as flood conditions improved, but relief and restoration work will continue [5]. - ANRPC predicted that in October 2025, global natural rubber production would increase by 2.7% to 1.496 million tons, while consumption would decrease by 4.2% to 1.26 million tons. For the whole year of 2025, production is expected to increase by 1.3% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption by 0.8% to 15.565 million tons [6]. - In November 2025, China's national passenger car market retail volume decreased by 7% year - on - year. From January to October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, but exports to China increased by 3% [7]. 3.2 Price 3.2.1 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and international rubber prices declined, with Japanese rubber dropping the most, followed by NR and RU. On December 5, 2025, compared with November 28, RU2605 decreased by 2.46%, NR2605 by 2.47%, Singapore TSR20:2605 by 1.04%, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 by 5.10% [10][12]. 3.2.2 Basis and Calendar Spread - On December 5, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU05 was - 365 yuan/ton, with a 17.98% week - on - week increase and a 66.51% year - on - year increase. The 05 - 09 calendar spread was - 20 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and an 89.74% year - on - year increase [13]. 3.2.3 Other Spreads - Spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - SGX TSR20 decreased, while the RU - JPX RSS3 spread increased. Non - standard basis: Imported rubber market offers declined, and domestic natural rubber spot prices also decreased. The whole - milk to Thai mixed rubber spread was stable, while the 3L to Thai mixed rubber spread widened [18][21][24]. 3.2.4 Substitute Prices - This week, the domestic butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization rate increased slightly, but the cost side lacked support. Although the mainstream supply price and market offers increased initially, downstream resistance to high prices led to a decline in trading volume and a subsequent drop in offers [31]. 3.2.5 Capital Flow - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased, and the settled capital decreased. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased, while the settled capital increased [34]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - **Weather**: Thailand's southern region entered the rainy season with increased rainfall, and the northeast had higher - than - normal rainfall and lower - than - normal temperatures. The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended [39][41]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Overseas floods receded, and rubber tapping and production resumed in Thailand, leading to a decline in raw material prices. In China, raw materials remained firm during the suspension and production - reduction period [43]. - **Raw Material Spreads**: The water - cup spread in Thailand widened, while the spreads of Hainan and Yunnan glue entering concentrated latex plants versus whole - milk plants remained stable [47]. - **Upstream Processing Profits**: As raw material prices decreased, processing profits generally recovered [50]. - **Delivery Profits**: Hainan's delivery profits continued to recover, while Yunnan's decreased [55]. - **Exports**: In October, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly driven by standard rubber and mixed rubber. Exports to China also increased. Indonesia's exports decreased, mainly due to a significant drop in standard rubber exports. Vietnam's exports increased, with latex having a relatively large month - on - month increase. Cote d'Ivoire's exports decreased month - on - month, but exports to China increased both year - on - year and month - on - month [62][65][68][74][76]. - **Imports**: In October, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) were 510,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.89%. Thai standard rubber imports decreased, while Indonesian standard and mixed rubber imports were at a high level year - on - year, and Cote d'Ivoire's standard rubber imports increased significantly [80]. 3.3.2 Demand - **Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample tire enterprises recovered, but overall sales pressure remained high, limiting the increase. Tire inventory days continued to decline [83]. - **Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales**: In October, semi - steel tire exports continued to decline significantly month - on - month, while full - steel tire exports decreased slightly. Heavy - truck and passenger car sales increased month - on - month, but the growth rate slowed down [86]. - **Road Transport Turnover**: In October, road freight turnover decreased month - on - month, while passenger turnover improved [89]. 3.3.3 Inventory - **Social Inventory**: China's natural rubber inventory showed a seasonal accumulation trend, with both dark and light rubber inventories increasing. The inventory in Qingdao Port continued to increase, and the inventory accumulation in Yunnan decreased compared to the previous period, while Vietnamese rubber increased slightly [95]. - **Futures Inventory**: On December 5, 2025, compared with the previous week, natural rubber futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 9.98%, the spot - futures inventory by 8.54%, 20 - number rubber futures inventory on the INE by 11.79%, and the spot - futures inventory by 9.59% [99]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - **Supply**: As of November 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.102 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous period. The inventory continued to accumulate [102]. - **Demand**: The resumption of production in maintenance enterprises drove the recovery of capacity utilization, but overall production and sales pressure limited the release of production capacity [102]. - **View**: The increase in overseas supply during the peak production period will put more pressure on the market, and Thai raw material prices may decline rapidly. With inventory accumulation and weak terminal demand, rubber prices may remain weak [102]. - **Valuation**: On Friday, the spread between RU and NR main contracts was 3020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the spread between mixed standard rubber and RU main contract was - 685 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [102]. - **Strategy**: 1) For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach or a short - selling strategy when prices are high for RU. 2) For inter - delivery spread trading, consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread if inventory accumulation continues. 3) For inter - variety trading, observe [102].

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年12月07日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：重心继续上行，22000关口再度突破，关注现货基差及下游利润 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 我们上周提及在经历此前两周的短暂回调后，近期伴随海外风偏企稳，且叠加多场有色会议如亚洲铜会、SMM年会与会者反馈的热 烈气氛，目前市场对于铜铝锡依然保持了强烈的看涨预期。本周传统有色金属板块全线收涨，铝金属再度突破22000一线整数关口。 ◆ 10月下旬迄今铝的供需两端（更多在不远的预期层面）开始走向供弱而需强，盘面的边际定价条线趋向干净。且估值角度，传统有色 金属以铜为代表被市场赋予了当下全球依然纷乱的政经格局中作为资源品的地缘溢价，长期多配的价值持续凸显，铝估值相对铜的落 后也进一步给到了铝价偏正面的支撑。伴随本周LME铜市场的剧烈挤升水，市场资金对铜金属的进一 ...