Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.7 CNY, compared to the current price of 12.59 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 76.049 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 23.17%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.007 billion CNY, up 11.41% year-on-year. However, in Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 27.834 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 12.03%, but a net loss of 59 million CNY, a significant decline of 107.34% year-on-year [1][2]. - The decline in oil prices has led to inventory losses and PTA losses, negatively impacting overall performance. The company has a total filament capacity of 13.5 million tons, with Q3 sales of 3.585 million tons, reflecting a 9% increase quarter-on-quarter. The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY have decreased by 2.7%, 2.5%, and 1.8% respectively due to falling oil prices [2]. - The company is a leader in the filament industry, with a global market share of 18% and a domestic market share of 28%. The company is focusing on upstream refining projects, including the integrated refining project in Indonesia, which is expected to significantly enhance profitability once completed [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 82.64 billion CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 797 million CNY, reflecting a staggering growth of 512.1% [3]. - For the years 2024 to 2026, the projected net profits are 1.375 billion CNY, 2.373 billion CNY, and 3.255 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 72.5%, 72.6%, and 37.2% [2][3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated to be 0.57 CNY, 0.98 CNY, and 1.35 CNY respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22x, 13x, and 9x [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the pricing power in the petrochemical industry is strengthening, and it anticipates a recovery in performance in the future [1][4] - The company has shown a significant increase in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 760.49 billion yuan, up 23.17% year-on-year, and net profit at 10.07 billion yuan, up 11.41% year-on-year [3][4] - The report highlights the company's ongoing efforts to enhance its industrial chain integration, including projects that will increase production capacity significantly [5] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 619.93 billion yuan, which is projected to grow to 930.79 billion yuan in 2024 and reach 1,027.41 billion yuan by 2026 [2][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 1.30 billion yuan in 2022 to 14.97 billion yuan in 2024, and further to 20.15 billion yuan in 2026 [2][6] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.05 yuan in 2022 to 0.62 yuan in 2024, and reach 0.84 yuan in 2026 [2][6] Market Analysis - The report notes that the polyester filament market experienced fluctuations in the third quarter, with a notable decrease in international oil prices affecting raw material support [4] - Despite a weak demand environment, leading companies are maintaining firm pricing strategies, which has resulted in an increase in price differentials [4] - The average price differential for polyester in the third quarter was 1,350 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 155 yuan/ton compared to the previous quarter [4] Strategic Developments - The company is actively expanding its production capabilities, with significant projects underway, including a 5 million ton PTA and 2.4 million ton polyester filament integrated production project [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of these developments in enhancing the company's competitive position within the industry [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. (桐昆股份) [4] Core Views - The high temperatures in Q3 have negatively impacted the demand for long filaments, but various stimulus policies are being introduced, awaiting a recovery in downstream chemical product demand [2] - The company's Q3 performance was below expectations, with a revenue of 76.049 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -0.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 107.34% [2] - The report has adjusted the earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.67, 1.10, and 1.53 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.98, 1.11, and 1.54 yuan [2] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 760.49 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23.17% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 57.73% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 1.007 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.41% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.50% [2] - The report projects revenues of 97.381 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.8% [3] Price and Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to 14.30 yuan from the previous 15.70 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13 times for 2025 [2][4] - The current price of the stock is 12.17 yuan, with a market capitalization of 29.343 billion yuan [5][4] Market Data - The stock has a 52-week price range of 10.25 to 16.34 yuan [5] - The company holds a 20% stake in Zhejiang Petrochemical, which has contributed significantly to its investment income, amounting to 530 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to 74 million yuan in the same period of 2023 [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 76.049 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 23.17% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.007 billion yuan, up 11.41% year-on-year. However, in Q3 2024, the company faced a net loss of 59 million yuan, a decrease of 107.34% year-on-year [2][6] - The polyester segment's performance was under pressure, leading to a significant decline in profits. Excluding the contribution from Zhejiang Petrochemical, the net loss in Q3 2024 was 183 million yuan, down 148.87% year-on-year [7] - The demand for polyester filament is showing signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase in consumption volume of 5.53% in Q3 2024 [7] - Recent government policies aimed at boosting real estate and consumption are expected to further improve demand for polyester filament [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 27.834 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.03% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.70%. The net profit for the same period was a loss of 590 million yuan, down 112.07% quarter-on-quarter [2][6] - The company holds a 20% stake in Zhejiang Petrochemical, which reported a net profit of 620 million yuan in Q3 2024, a decrease of 70.74% year-on-year [7] Market Outlook - The average PTA-crude oil price spread in Q3 2024 was 315 yuan/ton, remaining stable, but the PTA price spread is still at a low level, impacting the company's performance [7] - If the demand for end-use chemical products recovers and projects at Zhejiang Petrochemical are fully operational, it is expected to enhance investment returns [7] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.6 billion yuan, 3.6 billion yuan, and 5.2 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.65 yuan, 1.49 yuan, and 2.14 yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance relative to the market [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 76.05 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.01 billion yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year [6][7]. - In Q3 2024, the company experienced a decline in net profit to -0.06 billion yuan, a significant drop of 112.1% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to inventory losses [6][7]. - The report highlights an increase in sales volume for polyester filament in Q3, driven by a decrease in raw material prices, although the overall demand remains weak [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 27.83 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.7%, but faced a net loss of 0.06 billion yuan [6][7]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 3.3%, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to inventory devaluation [6][7]. - The company’s financial expenses increased by 37.3% year-on-year due to rising interest costs [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the polyester filament sales volume increased in Q3, with POY, FDY, and DTY sales reaching 2.69 million, 0.61 million, and 0.29 million tons respectively, showing quarter-on-quarter increases [6][7]. - The average price spreads for POY, FDY, and DTY improved in Q3, reflecting a favorable pricing environment despite raw material price declines [6][7]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a tightening supply-demand balance for polyester filament, which could lead to improved profitability in the future [6][7]. - The company’s earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downward due to weaker-than-expected seasonal profits and inventory devaluation impacts [6][7].

石油石化/炼化及贸易 Q3 业绩承压，看好长丝盈利逐步修复 桐昆股份（601233.SH） 2024 年 10 月 31 日 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------------| | 日期 | 2024/10/31 | | 当前股价 ( 元 ) | 11.78 | | 一年最高最低 ( 元 ) | 16.44/10.09 | | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 284.03 | | 流通市值 ( 亿元 ) | 282.24 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 24.11 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 23.96 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 76.43 | 股价走势图 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 桐昆股份 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2024H1 业绩同比大幅增长，看好长 丝盈利继续修复—公司信息更新报 告》-2024.8.29 《2024H1 业绩预计同比高增，看好下 半年长丝盈利继续修复—公司信息更 新 ...

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股票代码：601233 股票简称：桐昆股份 公告编号：2024-072 桐昆集团股份有限公司 关于增加公司2024年度日常关联交易预计额度的 公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 1、桐昆集团股份有限公司（以下简称"桐昆股份"或"公司"）预计增加 2024年度日常关联交易额度45,321万元，所涉及金额无需提交股东大会审议。 2、公司 2024 年度日常关联交易预计额度增加是为了保证公司及下属子公司 的正常生产经营活动，关联交易符合公开、公平、公正的原则，定价公允，对公 司及下属子公司、非关联方股东的利益不会产生不利影响，也不会损害中小股东 的利益。 一、日常关联交易基本情况 （一）日常关联交易履行的审议程序 公司第九届董事会第八次会议及 2023 年年度股东大会审议通过了《关于公 司 2024 年度预计日常关联交易的议案》，预计公司及公司子公司将与控股股东 及其子公司发生的日常关联交易预计金额为 299,929 万元,与其他关联方发生的 日常关联交易预计金额为 2,015,776 万元。 20 ...

股票代码：601233 股票简称：桐昆股份 公告编号：2024-070 桐昆集团股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度主要经营数据公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证本公告不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性、完整性承担法律责任。 桐昆集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据上海证券交易 所《上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号行业信息披露：十三号——化工》、 《关于做好主板上市公司 2024 年第三季度报告披露工作的重要提醒》 要求，现将 2024 年第三季度主要经营数据披露如下： 二、主要产品和原材料的价格变动情况 1 主要产品 2024 年 1-9 月 生产量（万吨） 2024 年 1-9 月 销售量（万吨） 2024年1-9月营业收 入（万元） POY 697.18 709.67 4,813,388.39 FDY 166.24 155.95 1,185,942.16 DTY 83.67 80.25 675,330.47 PTA 88.46 98.12 510,215.76 一、主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 （一）主要产品价格波动情况 主要产品 2024 年 1-9 月不含 税 ...

股票代码：601233 股票简称：桐昆股份 公告编号：2024-071 桐昆集团股份有限公司 关于使用闲置自有资金进行国债回购交易的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 债券回购交易，是指债券买卖双方在成交同时就约定于未来某一 时间以某一价格再行反向成交的交易，是以债券为抵押品拆借资金的 信用行为。其实质内容是：债券的持有方（融资者，资金需求方）以 持有的债券作为抵押，获得一定期限内的资金使用权，期满后则需归 还借贷的资金，并按约定支付一定的利息，而资金的贷出方（融券方， 1 资金供应方）则暂时放弃相应资金的使用权，从而获得融资方的债券 抵押权，并于回购期满时归还对方抵押的债券，收回融出资金并获得 一定利息。 二、债券回购交易的目的 重要内容提示： 国债回购交易品种：上海证券交易所及深圳证券交易所提供的 1-182 天期的国债回购交易品种。 国债回购交易金额：任一时点最高总额不超 15 亿元人民币。 国债回购交易期限：自本次董事会会议审议批准之日起至 2025 年 10 月 29 日止。 桐昆集团股份有限公司（以 ...