行业点评报告 ·银行业 降准降息落地、中长期资金入市、坚守红利价值 5 月 7 日国新办新闻发布会解读 2025 年 5 月 7 日 银行 推荐 维持 分析师 张一纬 ☎：010-8092-7617 网: zhangyiwei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519010001 研究助理 袁世麟 网: yuanshilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 数量型与价格型工具升级加码、降准降息落地 相对沪深 300 表现图 2024-05-07 20% 资料来源:ifind. 中国银河证券研 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 事件:国新办举行新闻发布会,央行、金融监管总局、证监会介绍"一揽子金 融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。 数量型与价格型工具升级加码,降准降息落地:降准幅度为50BP,释放流 0 动性 1 万亿元,同时阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率从 目前的 5%调降为 0%;政策利率降息幅度为 10BP,预计带动 LPR 同步下行 10BP,同时下调结构 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking and insurance sectors, indicating an expectation that these sectors will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the necessity for increased domestic policy support in response to external disturbances, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing economic growth and market expectations [3]. - Recent monetary policy measures, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, are expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, enhancing banks' lending capabilities and supporting economic recovery [4]. - A 0.1% decrease in policy interest rates is anticipated to boost market confidence and stimulate financing demand, particularly benefiting the real estate sector [5]. - The report discusses measures to encourage insurance capital to enter the market, including lowering risk factors for stock investments by 10% and expanding the scope for long-term investments [6][7]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector - The reduction in the reserve requirement ratio is projected to provide banks with more available funds, enhancing their credit issuance capacity and promoting stable business development [4]. - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend, low-valuation banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank [7]. Insurance Sector - The report recommends attention to insurance companies with flexible asset management, such as China Life and New China Life, as well as those with stable overall capabilities like China Pacific Insurance and Ping An Insurance [7].

Group 1 - Qingdao Huasaiberman Medical Cell Biology Co., Ltd. is advancing clinical trials thanks to timely bank credit support, specifically an 8 million yuan talent loan from Qingdao Bank [1] - Qingdao Bank has established a dedicated evaluation system for innovative enterprises, incorporating "soft power" factors such as technological leadership and team strength into its credit model, facilitating financing for asset-light companies [1] - Shandong province has introduced policies to address financing difficulties for innovative enterprises, including credit, guarantees, interest subsidies, and risk compensation, leading to the development of specialized loan products [1] Group 2 - Yiwopackaging Technology Co., Ltd. faced challenges with slow receivables and tight liquidity, but received a 5 million yuan "Innovation Credit Loan" from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, alleviating financial pressure [2] - The "Innovation Credit Loan" is based on a scoring system that evaluates companies' R&D efforts and innovation outcomes, with over 80 innovative enterprises in Zaozhuang High-tech Zone benefiting from this support [2] - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in Shandong has a technology enterprise loan balance exceeding 190 billion yuan, covering over 7,000 companies [2] Group 3 - Changxing Group Co., Ltd. successfully obtained a 5 million yuan loan using its patent as collateral, which is being used for new product development and ensuring timely order delivery [3] - As of March, Shandong province's technology loan balance reached 2.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.2% [3]

工商银行东莞分行方面介绍，该行始终聚焦金融"五篇大文章"，借助资金流信息平台，探索推动其在供 应链金融、科创金融等场景的深度应用。通过扩大覆盖面、加大宣传推广力度，并强化贷前审核、贷中 评估及贷后管理等关键环节的应用，提升服务能力，转变服务方式，创新服务产品；通过数据赋能打破 银企信息壁垒，支持信贷资金精准直达中小微企业。 采写：南都记者 唐国轩 东莞工行方面介绍，东莞市群奥电子有限公司（以下简称"群奥电子"）是资金流信息平台上线以来我行 的首批受益企业。作为专注电容电阻研发、生产、销售的国家高新技术企业，群奥电子连续三年保持纳 税信用A级企业资质。但因企业存在产业链上下游客户地域分散、有效抵质押物不足、营业收入跨银行 账户结算以及进项抵扣导致纳税基数偏低等客观因素，传统授信模式下基于结算流水、纳税金额及工资 代发等维度的评估体系流程繁琐、成本高昂，导致企业长期面临融资难、融资贵的问题。 "依托资金流信息平台，我们的供应链交易资金流数据可实时验证，并作为可信信息直接提供给银行， 节省了银行实地尽职调查的时间。"群奥电子财务负责人表示，"资金流信息平台上线后，我们的融资审 批周期大大缩短，需要提交的申请材料也相 ...

Core Insights - The 2024 performance report of 42 listed banks in A-shares shows a slight increase in operating income and net profit, indicating a recovery in revenue despite ongoing pressure on net interest margins [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Total operating income for the 42 listed banks reached 5.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.08%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.14 trillion yuan, up 2.35% [1][2] - 31 banks reported positive growth in both operating income and net profit, with 30 banks showing improved revenue growth compared to 2023 [2][3] - Notably, Nanjing Bank's revenue growth surged from 1.24% in 2023 to 11.32% in 2024 [2] Revenue Structure - The net interest margin continued to decline, with only two banks maintaining a margin above 2% [1][5] - Interest income for the listed banks collectively decreased by 2.1% to 4.16 trillion yuan, with 17 banks reporting positive growth [5][6] - Non-interest income saw a decline in fee and commission income by 9.38%, while investment income increased significantly by 20.32% to 512.8 billion yuan [7][8] Asset Growth - Total assets of the listed banks reached 302 trillion yuan, with major state-owned banks like ICBC, ABC, and CCB each surpassing 40 trillion yuan in assets [10][11] - ICBC's total assets were 48.82 trillion yuan, while ABC and CCB reported 43.24 trillion yuan and 40.57 trillion yuan, respectively [10] Loan and Deposit Trends - The total loan amount across the 42 banks reached 174 trillion yuan, with corporate loans showing robust growth [12] - Personal deposits increased across all listed banks, with 29 banks reporting growth exceeding 10% [13] - Agricultural Bank led in personal deposits with 18.7 trillion yuan, followed closely by ICBC with 18.54 trillion yuan [13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report indicates that the banking sector is experiencing a decline in interest margins, which is expected to continue impacting performance negatively. The overall economic environment remains challenging, with ongoing pressures on profitability and operational efficiency [6][15][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Performance and Non-Interest Income - The banking sector's performance in Q1 2025 shows a decline in profitability compared to Q4 2024, with a year-on-year decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders. The decline is attributed to reduced interest margins and non-interest income pressures [6][15]. 2. Scale and Demand - There is a noticeable differentiation in demand across different banking segments, with larger banks showing more resilience compared to smaller banks. The overall growth in loan demand is expected to stabilize, but the performance of smaller banks may lag behind [6][15]. 3. Interest Margin Trends - Interest margins are projected to decline further in 2025 compared to 2024, with the report suggesting that the decline will be less severe than in the previous year. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in margins as market conditions stabilize [6][15]. 4. Non-Interest Income Recovery - Non-interest income is expected to rebound, although it remains under pressure due to market volatility. The report highlights the importance of maintaining a diversified income stream to mitigate risks associated with interest income fluctuations [6][15]. 5. Asset Quality Outlook - The asset quality of banks is expected to remain stable, but there are concerns regarding potential deterioration in credit quality due to economic uncertainties. The report emphasizes the need for banks to manage their credit risk effectively [6][15]. 6. Recommendations - The report suggests that banks should focus on optimizing their funding structures and improving operational efficiencies to counteract the pressures from declining interest margins. Continuous monitoring of market conditions is recommended to adapt strategies accordingly [6][15]. 7. Risk Factors - Key risk factors identified include macroeconomic fluctuations, significant competition in the banking sector, and potential regulatory changes that could impact profitability [6][15].

Group 1 - The article highlights the significant role of banks in supporting the tourism and cultural industries during the "May Day" holiday, with a focus on innovative financial products and services tailored to meet the needs of merchants and consumers [1][3] - An example of successful financial empowerment is seen in the An Dong Old Street, which has over 180 merchants, primarily small businesses, benefiting from personalized financial service solutions provided by local banks [2][4] - The article notes that during the holiday, domestic travel reached 314 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with total spending amounting to 180.27 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 8.0% [3][4] Group 2 - The financial support for the cultural and tourism sectors includes increased financing supply, enriched credit products, and improved service environments, aimed at enhancing the development of the industry [4][5] - In Hunan Province, the People's Bank has utilized various monetary policy tools to provide low-cost funding to banks, promoting the benefits of policy dividends to more market participants in the tourism sector [5] - The article emphasizes the need for banks to innovate credit products and align with the financing needs of the tourism industry, which predominantly consists of light-asset small and micro enterprises [5]

Monetary Policy and Financial Stability - The People's Bank of China announced the creation of new structural monetary policy tools to stabilize the economy and financial markets, focusing on maintaining ample liquidity and supporting employment and growth in key areas [1] - The central bank is also exploring additional policy tools to enhance support for employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, including promoting "two new" debt financing tools for private enterprises, which have issued 25.5 billion yuan [1] Banking Sector Adjustments - Several banks, including China Merchants Bank and others, are closing credit card centers and shifting to localized operations due to slowing retail business growth, with 23 credit card centers of China Merchants Bank approved for closure in 2024 [5] - The first batch of listed banks has announced the abolition of supervisory boards, with only Postal Savings Bank retaining the position of supervisor, following new regulations from the National Financial Supervision Administration [7][8] Financial Performance of Banks - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank reported a revenue of 45.922 billion yuan and a net profit of 17.598 billion yuan for Q1 2025, with total assets reaching 9.552 trillion yuan, showing positive growth in both revenue and profit [6] - Zhejiang Commercial Bank's total assets exceeded 3.4 trillion yuan, with a revenue of 17.105 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.949 billion yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a strategic shift towards quality and service over mere scale [9] - Suzhou Bank reported a net profit growth of 10.16% year-on-year, with total assets surpassing 720 billion yuan and a non-performing loan ratio of 0.83% [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, highlighting it as a low-volatility dividend play in a counter-cyclical environment and a strong performer in absolute returns during a pro-cyclical phase [6]. Core Insights - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in both revenue and net profit for listed banks, with revenue and net profit down 1.7% and 1.2% year-on-year, respectively. The main reasons for this decline were the expected decrease in interest margins and pressure from non-interest income [3][12]. - Loan growth has remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 7.9% in the first quarter. Notably, banks in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, as well as Chengdu, continue to show strong economic performance, while Chongqing has emerged as a new growth area with loan growth exceeding 16% [3][4]. - The average net interest margin for listed banks was 1.54% in the first quarter, reflecting a slight quarter-on-quarter increase of 2 basis points, supported by a decrease in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities [4][12]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for listed banks decreased to 1.23%, with an estimated annualized NPL generation rate of approximately 0.63% [5][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-dividend yield banks, particularly those with solid provisions and growth opportunities in favorable policy environments [6][19]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant impact from the decline in interest margins and non-interest income, leading to a negative growth in both revenue and profit for listed banks [10][12]. - The report indicates that the performance of state-owned banks was below expectations, while city and rural commercial banks generally met expectations [3][19]. Loan and Credit Analysis - Loan growth has been stable, with a year-on-year increase of 7.9% in the first quarter. The report highlights that the demand for loans from small and medium-sized enterprises has weakened, affecting the growth rates of rural commercial banks [3][4]. Interest Margin and Cost Analysis - The report notes that the average net interest margin for listed banks improved slightly, with a quarter-on-quarter increase attributed to a reduction in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities [4][12]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The NPL ratio for listed banks decreased to 1.23%, with proactive measures taken to manage and dispose of non-performing assets [5][19]. - The report indicates that the retail sector is experiencing some risk exposure, but overall asset quality remains stable [5][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on banks with high dividend yields and solid fundamentals, particularly those that are well-positioned to benefit from favorable policy changes [6][19].

4月29日，工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行、交通银行五大国有银行同日发布公 告，宣布同意撤销监事会并修改公司章程，招商银行、华夏银行两家股份制银行董事会决议 也审议通过了取消监事会相关议案。 除银行机构外，其他金融机构也开始行动。4月29日，中国人保发布关于修订公司章程的公 告。根据修订后的章程，中国人保不设监事会，相应职权由董事会审计委员会行使。此前， 日本财险（中国）已于4月20日宣布撤销公司监事职位，并明确由董事会下的审计与风险管 理委员会行使监事会职责。 撤销监事会是落实新修订《公司法》的具体实践，也是金融机构治理体系改革的重要路径， 有助于金融机构进一步优化公司治理结构、提升公司治理质效，助力行业治理体系构建新生 态与新图景。 七家银行宣布撤销监事会 招商银行提出设立职工董事 在国有银行方面，工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行、交通银行五家国有银行均于 4月29日发布公告，宣布撤销监事会。 工商银行董事会审议通过《中国工商银行股份有限公司章程（2025 年版）》及撤销监事会 相关事项的议案，尚需提交该行股东大会审议通过，并报送国家金融监督管理总局核准。 农业银行董事会审议通过不再设立监事 ...