Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Lu'an Environmental Energy has experienced fluctuations in stock price and financial performance, with a notable decrease in revenue and net profit year-on-year [1][2]. - As of January 6, Lu'an Environmental Energy's stock price increased by 2.02% to 12.15 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 36.346 billion CNY [1]. - The company has a primary business focus on coal mining, coal washing, and coke smelting, with coal accounting for 92.66% of its main business revenue [1]. Group 2 - For the period from January to September 2025, Lu'an Environmental Energy reported a revenue of 21.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 20.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.554 billion CNY, down 44.45% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 25.851 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 14.505 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include notable entities such as Guotai Junan Coal ETF and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, with changes in their holdings compared to the previous period [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" rating due to expected price increases driven by seasonal demand and stricter safety regulations [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that as of January 4, 2026, the spot prices for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port have increased, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades priced at 505, 593, and 682 RMB/ton respectively, reflecting week-on-week increases of 18, 14, and 6 RMB/ton [1]. - Supply-side constraints are noted, with a decrease in daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports, down to 1.3888 million tons, a reduction of 116,300 tons week-on-week [1]. - Demand is supported by ongoing cold weather, leading to improved daily consumption, which has risen to 1.6768 million tons, an increase of 85,600 tons week-on-week [1]. - The report anticipates that the combination of high consumption levels and reduced production from high-cost mines will support thermal coal prices moving forward [1]. - For coking coal, prices remain stable, with Shanxi Anze low-sulfur coking coal priced at 1600 RMB/ton as of January 4, 2026 [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report discusses the implementation of a "benchmark price + floating price" mechanism for long-term contracts for thermal coal, with prices set at 540, 483, and 453 RMB/ton for different regions [7]. - It also mentions increased regulatory scrutiny on safety measures in coal mining, particularly during the winter heating season [7]. Price Trends - The report notes that the average daily consumption of coal has increased by 3.94% week-on-week, while the inventory of major power generation groups has decreased by 11.8% [3]. - The Bohai Rim coal inventory has decreased to 27.127 million tons, down 191,500 tons week-on-week, indicating a 6.59% drop [20]. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices have increased slightly to 60.75 USD/barrel, reflecting a 0.18% rise week-on-week [15]. - The report highlights the relationship between international oil prices and coal prices, noting a rise in the ratio of international oil prices to international coal prices [15]. Company Valuation - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, with various earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios forecasted for the coming years [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Insights - The coal mining industry is experiencing a tightening in production and shipment, with downstream power plants showing an increase in daily consumption, leading to a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics [2][12] - The report highlights that coal prices are expected to have support due to anticipated production reductions before the Spring Festival and potential temperature drops [12][63] - The long-term trend for coal prices is upward, driven by factors such as rising labor costs, increased safety and environmental investments, and higher taxation by local governments [5][66] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - As of December 31, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 678 RMB/ton, with a weekly decrease of 3 RMB/ton but a daily increase of 8 RMB/ton [12][63] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region decreased by 4.85 percentage points due to increased maintenance during the New Year holiday [12][63] - The daily consumption of the six major power plants increased by 39,000 tons week-on-week [12][63] - The inventory of the six major power plants decreased by 118,000 tons to 13.375 million tons, down 276,000 tons year-on-year [12][29] Coking Coal - The production capacity utilization for coking coal decreased by 3.14 percentage points to 79.5% [3][64] - The average customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu port decreased by 133 trucks week-on-week [3][64] - The price of main coking coal at ports remained stable at 1,740 RMB/ton as of December 31 [3][36] Coke - As of December 31, major steel mills have initiated the fourth round of price reductions for coke, indicating a weak market [3][44] - The average profit per ton of coke increased by 4 RMB/ton week-on-week [3][46] - The production rate of independent coking plants showed differentiation, with overall production rates declining slightly [3][47] Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy for their stable performance and high dividends [5][66] - Other notable stocks include Yanzhou Coal, Jinkong Coal, and Huayuan Co. for their growth potential and strong cash flow [5][67]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the coal industry, including Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Huanneng, Yancoal, China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others [5]. Core Insights - The coal market is experiencing a supply-demand tug-of-war, leading to continued price fluctuations. Recent supply constraints and increasing terminal demand have resulted in a slight recovery in port coal prices. However, as coal mines resume production after the New Year, supply is expected to stabilize, while demand is anticipated to strengthen due to colder weather [8][9]. - The report suggests a strategy of buying on dips, focusing on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, as well as those with significant production capacity growth potential. Key recommendations include China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, and Yancoal, among others [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Business Tracking - The report emphasizes the importance of dividend policies and growth prospects for listed companies in the coal sector [13][15]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - The report tracks coal price indices, noting that the price of thermal coal at the port has shown a week-on-week increase of 6 CNY/ton, while year-on-year comparisons indicate a decline [9][10]. 3. Coal Inventory Tracking - As of December 31, 2025, the inventory at the Bohai Rim ports was reported at 28.366 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.43% [8]. 4. Downstream Performance of the Coal Industry - The report highlights that the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces reached 6.116 million tons, marking a 12.78% increase compared to the end of November [8][9]. 5. Weekly Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector has seen significant price movements, with individual stocks reflecting the overall market trends. The report provides detailed performance metrics for key companies [10][11].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the coal industry is entering a new cycle with a significant increase in value, driven by supply-demand restructuring and improved market conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Cycle Review - The coal price center has significantly increased during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to usher in a new cycle [4][15]. - The report reviews four cycles of the coal industry, highlighting that the current cycle may see a recovery from the bottom in the second half of 2025 [15][16]. - The average price of Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal reached 718 RMB/ton in the second half of 2025, reflecting a 6% increase compared to the first half [20][21]. Group 2: Supply Restructuring - Coal production from 2020 to 2024 increased by 23% to 4.78 billion tons, but growth is expected to slow significantly in 2025, with production growth in Xinjiang only at 2.6% [4][33]. - The report anticipates that coal production will enter a peak and decline phase, with growth rates expected to be between 0.5% and 1.0% from 2026 to 2028 [4][33]. - Regulatory policies are expected to impact coal production, potentially leading to negative growth in certain periods [4][33]. Group 3: Demand Restructuring - The demand for coal is expected to maintain resilience, with electricity consumption projected to grow at around 5% over the next five years, driven by new manufacturing and increased electrification [4][33]. - The report notes that while coal consumption is expected to decline in the short term due to electricity demand pressures, it is likely to recover as macroeconomic policies strengthen in 2026 [4][33]. - Chemical demand is projected to grow at approximately 5%, while declines in steel and construction materials are expected to narrow [4][33]. Group 4: Global and Commodity Perspectives - The report highlights that global coal production is expected to decline, while Southeast Asian demand is projected to grow by 3-5% from 2025 to 2030 [4][33]. - Compared to other commodities, coal has shown weaker performance, with the copper-coal ratio and gold-coal ratio at historical highs [4][33]. - The coal industry's share of industrial profits has dropped to historical lows, while the electricity sector's profit share has reached a high of 10% [4][33]. Group 5: Overall Viewpoint - The report concludes that the coal price center is expected to rise to around 750 RMB/ton in 2026, with leading companies offering dividend yields of 4-6% [4][33]. - Key companies identified include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal, which are expected to maintain stable profitability [4][33]. - The report emphasizes that after a pessimistic outlook on coal prices is reversed, valuation elasticity is likely to become apparent [4][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the coal industry [6]. Core Insights - The coal pricing policy in China has shifted from administrative price stabilization to market-oriented flexible regulation from 2022 to 2025, with a focus on optimizing supply structure and enhancing cost support [1][17]. - The complete cost of coal enterprises in major production areas provides a bottom support for port prices, with the support level estimated at approximately 574 RMB/ton for Shanxi and Shaanxi regions [2][30]. - The coal industry is expected to maintain its role as a cornerstone of China's energy system, with supply constraints and gradual energy structure transformation supporting a high price level for coal [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Special Research - The shift in coal pricing policy aims to stabilize energy supply while ensuring reasonable profits for coal and electricity sectors [1]. - The complete cost structure of coal enterprises includes production costs, period expenses, and taxes, with a focus on maintaining energy security and sustainable development [21]. 2. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.91% from December 13 to December 26, while the coal index fell by 0.35%, underperforming the overall market [3][32]. 3. Market Information Tracking - As of December 24, 2025, the average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was reported at 695 RMB/ton, reflecting a decrease of 8 RMB/ton from December 10, 2025 [4]. - The price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port was reported at 1740 RMB/ton, an increase of 110 RMB/ton from December 12, 2025 [9]. 4. Industry Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines to enhance the clean and efficient utilization of coal, encouraging upgrades and improvements in coal projects [10]. - The 2026 National Energy Work Conference emphasized the importance of policy support in addressing development challenges within the energy sector [10]. 5. Investment Portfolio and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high long-term contract ratios for stable profits, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [11]. - It also highlights cyclical stocks like Yanzhou Coal and Jinkong Coal, as well as integrated coal and power companies like Xinji Energy and Huaihe Energy as potential investment opportunities [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Insights - The coal mining industry is experiencing a tightening in production, with an increase in daily consumption at power plants and a narrowing decline in port coal prices [1][71] - The overall supply-demand situation shows slight improvement, but port inventories remain high, and transaction atmosphere has not significantly improved [71][14] - The report highlights the long-term upward trend in coal prices driven by factors such as rising labor costs, increased safety and environmental investments, and higher taxation by local governments [7][73] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of December 26, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 672 RMB/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 31 RMB/ton, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous week [14][15] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region decreased by 3.46 percentage points to 84.84% as of December 24, mainly due to mines completing or nearing their annual production tasks [21][71] - Daily consumption at six major power plants increased by 56,000 tons week-on-week, reaching 856,000 tons [23][71] 2. Coking Coal - The production capacity utilization rate for coking coal decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 82.6% from December 17 to December 24, due to ongoing production cuts [5][72] - The average customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu port increased by 75 trucks week-on-week, indicating stable import levels [42][72] - The price of main coking coal at ports remains stable at 1,740 RMB/ton as of December 26 [40][72] 3. Coke - The coke market is operating weakly, with the third round of price reductions implemented recently, leading to a short-term price adjustment [47][72] - The production capacity utilization rate for coke enterprises slightly increased by 0.03 percentage points to 74.35% [47][72] - The average profit per ton of coke has decreased to -18 RMB/ton, a week-on-week decline of 34 RMB/ton [53][72] 4. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on stable investment targets such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, which exhibit strong cash flow and high asset quality [7][73] - The coal mining sector is viewed as a high-dividend, cash-generating investment opportunity, especially in light of recent government support for state-owned enterprises [7][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently at the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with fundamental and policy factors in resonance, it is advisable to allocate the coal sector at low levels [2][3][11] - The underlying logic of coal supply constraints since July still exists, and there's no need to overly worry about a significant decline in coal prices. The stabilization point of coal prices is approaching [2][3][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal production capacity shortage remains unchanged. Coal prices have established a bottom and are on a new platform, high - quality coal enterprises maintain core asset attributes, and coal assets are relatively undervalued with potential for overall valuation improvement [3][11] - The coal supply bottleneck is expected to last until the "15th Five - Year Plan". The coal sector is a high - performance, high - cash, and high - dividend asset, with high certainty in the profitability and growth of high - quality coal companies [3][12] - The coal sector has a high - dividend safety margin when it adjusts downward and upward elasticity catalyzed by the expected increase in coal prices. It is recommended to focus on the current allocation opportunities in the coal sector [3][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Core Viewpoints and Key Concerns - **Core Viewpoints**: The coal economy is in the early stage of a new upward cycle. This week, the utilization rate of sample thermal coal and coking coal mine production capacity decreased. The daily coal consumption in inland 17 provinces and coastal 8 provinces increased, while non - power coal demand decreased. Coal prices showed a mixed trend. Although the current market is weak, after New Year's Day, the coal consumption support is expected to strengthen. The coal allocation logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to allocate at low levels [11] - **Key Investment Recommendations**: Focus on three types of companies: those with stable operations and performance, those that have fallen sharply previously with high elasticity, and those with special and scarce global metallurgical coal resources. Also, pay attention to other related companies [12] - **Recent Key Concerns**: In November 2025, the total social electricity consumption increased by 6.2% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, US coal production increased by 4.1% year - on - year, and Russian coal production increased by 0.1% year - on - year [13] 3.2 This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector fell 0.89% this week, underperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 rose 1.95% to 4657.24 [14] - The thermal coal, coking coal, and coke sectors fell 1.24%, 0.81%, and 0.49% respectively [16] - The top three gainers in the coal mining and washing sector were Anyuan Coal Industry (6.42%), Huayang Co., Ltd. (5.01%), and Inner Mongolia Electric Power Investment Energy Co., Ltd. (2.75%) [19] 3.3 Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of December 26, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 695.0 yuan/ton, down 7.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) was 695.0 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The annual long - term agreement price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 694.0 yuan/ton, up 10.0 yuan/ton month - on - month [23] - **Thermal Coal Price**: As of December 27, the market price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced thermal coal (Q5500) was 677 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton week - on - week. At the production sites, prices in some areas rose or remained flat. International thermal coal FOB prices and some arrival prices fell [27] - **Coking Coal Price**: As of December 26, port and some production - site coking coal prices remained flat, while the arrival price of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal in China rose 0.3 US dollars/ton week - on - week [29] - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Injection Price**: As of December 26, the vehicle - board price of Jiaozuo anthracite remained flat, while the vehicle - board prices of some pulverized coal injection decreased [38] 3.4 Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines was 86.4%, down 4.0 percentage points week - on - week, and that of sample coking coal mines was 84.21%, down 2.4 percentage points week - on - week [45] - **Import Coal Price Difference**: As of December 26, the price difference between domestic and foreign 5000 - kcal and 4000 - kcal thermal coal increased week - on - week [41] - **Coal - fired Power Daily Consumption and Inventory**: In both inland 17 provinces and coastal 8 provinces, coal inventory increased, daily consumption increased, and the number of available days decreased [46] - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: As of December 26, the Myspic composite steel price index fell, the price of Tangshan - produced primary metallurgical coke fell, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises decreased, the profit per ton of steel for blast furnaces increased, the iron - scrap price difference decreased, and the scrap consumption ratio of pure blast furnace enterprises decreased [64][65] - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: As of December 26, the prices of some chemical products showed different trends, the national cement price index fell, the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased, the float glass operating rate decreased, and the weekly coal consumption in the chemical industry decreased [68][70] 3.5 Coal Inventory Status - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: As of December 26, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased, the 55 - port thermal coal inventory increased, and the production - site inventory increased [82] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of December 26, the production - site, port, coking enterprise, and steel mill coking coal inventories all increased [83] - **Coke Inventory**: As of December 26, the total coke inventory of coking plants decreased, the four - port total coke inventory increased, and the total coke inventory of domestic sample steel mills increased [85] 3.6 Coal Transportation Status - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: As of December 24, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell. As of December 25, the average daily coal shipment volume on the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway decreased week - on - week [98] - **Cargo - to - Ship Ratio at Four Major Ports in the Bohai Rim**: As of December 26, the inventory at the four major ports in the Bohai Rim decreased, the number of anchored ships remained unchanged, and the cargo - to - ship ratio decreased [96] 3.7 Weather Conditions - As of December 26, the Three Gorges outbound flow increased by 0.31% week - on - week [103] - In the next 10 days (December 28, 2025 - January 6, 2026), precipitation in some areas will be higher than normal, and after January 1, the average temperature in most parts of central and eastern China will turn 1 - 2°C lower than normal [103] - In the next 11 - 14 days (January 7 - 10, 2026), precipitation and temperature in different regions will show different trends [103] 3.8 Valuation Table and Key Announcements of Listed Companies - **Valuation Table**: The report provides the valuation data of key listed companies, including net profit attributable to the parent company, EPS, and PE from 2024A to 2027E [104] - **Key Announcements**: There are announcements from multiple companies, such as the share transfer of Jizhong Energy, the completion of the shareholding increase plan of Panjiang Co., Ltd., the acceptance of the application for asset acquisition by Inner Mongolia Electric Power Investment Energy Co., Ltd., the guarantee provided by Kailuan Co., Ltd., and the maintenance of the credit rating of Meijin Energy [105][106][107] 3.9 This Week's Key Industry News - Indonesia plans to impose a 1% - 5% export tax on coal from 2026 [109] - In November 2025, China's coal imports decreased by 19.9% year - on - year, with thermal coal imports increasing by 7.0% month - on - month and coking coal imports increasing by 1.3% month - on - month [109] - 8000 tons of high - quality Mongolian coal arrived in Gannan [109] - As of the end of November 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity increased by 17.1% year - on - year [109]

Group 1 - The report highlights the tightening of safety and environmental regulations in the coal industry, which is expected to impact supply and pricing dynamics [4][5][6]. - Domestic coal production growth is slowing, with November coal production showing a year-on-year decline of 3.3% in Shanxi province, while overall national coal production for the first eleven months of 2025 increased by 1.4% [23][25][33]. - Industrial coal demand remains stable, but thermal power demand is experiencing temporary pressure, leading to fluctuations in coal prices [10][61]. Group 2 - The report notes that the seasonal adjustment of national railway freight rates is expected to enhance the economic viability of coal production areas and increase price volatility during adjustment periods [9]. - The report indicates that coal prices are likely to recover in the fourth quarter due to seasonal demand increases, particularly in the context of winter heating needs [10][41]. - The coal supply-demand balance shows that the top ten coal companies account for approximately 50% of total coal production, with significant production contributions from major companies like China Energy Group and Shanxi Coking Coal Group [33][34]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes that coal imports have decreased significantly, with a 12% year-on-year decline in imports for the first eleven months of 2025, particularly from Indonesia and Russia [50][54]. - The report also highlights that the coal production in Xinjiang has been growing, with November production reaching 5 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.6% [41][42]. - The report discusses the resilience of the steel industry’s coal demand, with low inventory levels potentially supporting price rebounds [56][60].

Group 1 - The coal mining sector experienced a slight increase of 0.1% on December 26, with Huayang Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3963.68, up 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13603.89, up 0.54% [1] - Key stocks in the coal mining sector showed varied performance, with Huayang Co. rising by 6.10% to a closing price of 8.17 [1] Group 2 - The coal mining sector saw a net outflow of 92.22 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 180 million yuan [2] - Notable stocks with significant net inflows from retail investors included Xinda Zhou A, which had a net inflow of 42.99 million yuan [3] - The overall trading volume and turnover in the coal mining sector reflected active participation, with Xinda Zhou A achieving a trading volume of 601,600 shares [1][2]