Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival holiday will last for 9 days from February 15 to February 23, marking the longest Spring Festival holiday in history [1] - The Spring Festival is a crucial driver of domestic tourism in China, with 5.01 billion domestic trips and a total expenditure of 677 billion yuan during the 2025 holiday, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% and 7.0% respectively [1] - The tourism market is already experiencing a surge in activity, with over 3 million flight tickets booked for the 2026 Spring Festival as of January 9, showing a 20% increase in daily bookings compared to the same period last year [1] Company and Industry Highlights - Key tourism and travel-related stocks with significant institutional interest include: - Songcheng Performance (300144.SZ) with 160 institutional visits and a price increase of 222.57% [2] - Guangdong Expressway (000429.SZ) with 156 visits and a price increase of 229.04% [2] - Three Gorges Tourism (002627.SZ) with 143 visits and a price increase of 57.46% [2] - Sichuan Chengyu (601107.SH) with 115 visits and a price increase of 174.00% [2] - Baiyun Airport (600004.SH) with 100 visits and a price increase of 244.58% [2] - Other notable stocks with high institutional visits include HNA Holding (600221.SH) with 66 visits and a price increase of 753.11%, and China Duty Free (601888.SH) with 32 visits and a price increase of 1954.90% [2][3] - Stocks with high price increase frequency over the past year include: - Caesar Travel (000796.SZ) with 13 price limit increases [3] - Tibet Travel (600749.SH) and Haikou Group (603069.SH) each with 10 price limit increases [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the social services sector [4][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights that policies promoting service consumption are continuously being strengthened, injecting new vitality into the industry. Key initiatives include the emphasis on releasing service consumption potential and enhancing trade and investment facilitation in Hainan Free Trade Port [2][18][19]. - The consumer services sector outperformed the market, with a reported increase of 3.15% during the period from December 29, 2025, to January 11, 2026, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.96 percentage points [13][14]. - Companies such as Tianli International Holdings and Renrui Talent saw significant stock price increases of 19.92% and 12.56%, respectively, during the reporting period [14][30]. Summary by Sections Industry and Company Dynamics - Recent policies in the service consumption sector are aimed at stimulating growth, including measures from the National Business Work Conference and Shanghai's 16 initiatives to enhance service consumption [2][18][19]. - The Sanya International Duty-Free City Phase III project has been capped, with a total investment of 7 billion CNY, expected to be completed in phases starting in 2026 [21]. - Ctrip's "Smart Engine 3.0" has improved product recommendation efficiency by over 8%, showcasing the impact of AI on the industry [23]. Stock Holdings Analysis - Core stocks in the Hong Kong market, such as Mixue Group and Gu Ming, have seen increased holdings, while others like Haidilao and Tianli International Holdings experienced slight decreases [3][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued focus on companies like China Duty Free Group, Huatu Shanding, and Ctrip Group, among others, as potential investment opportunities in the current economic environment [4][31].

Group 1 - The tourism retail sector experienced a decline of 0.4% on January 12, with China Duty Free Group leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.29, up by 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14366.91, up by 1.75% [1] - China Duty Free Group's closing price was 95.40, reflecting a decrease of 0.40% [1] Group 2 - The tourism retail sector saw a net outflow of 352 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 2.356 million yuan [1] - The net inflow from speculative funds was 328 million yuan, accounting for 5.82% of the total [1] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment in the tourism retail sector, with institutional investors withdrawing funds [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as the travel industry chain, gold and jewelry, and AI applications [3] - The investment highlights include the ongoing recovery in consumer spending, particularly in tourism and retail sectors, driven by favorable policies [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Highlights - Key companies to watch include OTA platforms (Ctrip, Tongcheng), hotels (Atour, Huazhu, ShouLai, JinJiang, JunTing), and scenic spots (Emei Mountain, Three Gorges Tourism, Changbai Mountain) [4] - Significant improvement in competitive landscape noted for companies like Caibai Co. and Huatu Shanding [4] - AI application trends are gaining momentum with companies such as Kangnait Optical, Qingmu Technology, Tianli International Holdings, and Focus Technology [4] - Impressive sales data in the duty-free sector, particularly for China Duty Free Group [4] - Other undervalued companies highlighted include Laopu Gold, Sumida, Jiangsu Guotai, Action Education, and China Oriental Education [4] Market Performance - The retail sector saw a 4.43% increase last week, while the consumer services sector rose by 2.54%, ranking 13th and 21st among 30 industries respectively [4] - Notable stock performances included Focus Technology (+16.4%), Tianli International Holdings (+15.5%), and JunTing Hotel (+12.1%) [4] Industry Updates - The report provides updates on key industry metrics, including a 128.9% year-on-year increase in sales during the New Year holiday for Hainan's duty-free shopping [4] - The CPI data for December 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [4] - The CES 2026 event in Las Vegas featured over 50 Chinese brands showcasing smart glasses [4] - IKEA China announced the closure of seven large stores starting February 2, 2026, shifting focus to smaller stores and online channels [4]

花旗投资研究将中国中免H股目标价从72.00港元上调至100.00港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised the target price for China Duty Free Group (601888)(01880) H-shares from HKD 72 to HKD 100, maintaining a "Buy" rating, driven by strong sales performance in Hainan's duty-free market since Q4 last year [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Hainan's duty-free sales have shown stronger-than-expected performance, with year-on-year growth of 13% and 27% in October and November, accelerating to 55% during the Christmas week (December 18-24) and 88% in the first week of this year [1] - The growth is attributed to new duty-free policies, wealth effects, promotional activities, and holiday concerts [1] Group 2: Profit Forecasts - Citigroup expects the strong sales trend in Hainan to continue into the winter peak season, projecting a year-on-year sales growth of over 20% for this year [1] - The earnings forecasts for the next two years have been raised by 5% and 6.6%, while the 2025 full-year earnings forecast has been lowered by 6.3% to reflect the underperformance in Q3 last year [1] Group 3: Catalysts - Citigroup anticipates an improvement in China Duty Free Group's profitability in Q4 due to the recovery of Hainan's business, initiating a 30-day observation for upward catalysts [1] - The firm is monitoring the sustainability of sales momentum during the winter peak season and the Lunar New Year holiday, which could serve as short-term catalysts for the company [1]

花旗预计随着海南业务复苏，中免去年第四季盈利将有所改善，展开30天上行催化剂观察。 花旗并关 注冬天旺季及农历新年黄金周期间销售动能的持续性，预料可成为公司的短期催化剂。 该行预期，海南强劲的销售趋势或于冬天旺季持续，对海南今年免税销售增长前景变得更正面，预期销 售同比增长将超过20%。花旗分别将今明两年盈利预测上调5%及6.6%，2025年全年盈利预测则下调 6.3%，以反映去年第三季业绩未达预期。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，将中国中免(01880)H股目标价由72港元上调至100港元，并维 持"买入"评级。去年第四季以来海南离岛免税销售表现较预期强劲，由10月及11月份的同比增长13%及 27%，加快至圣诞节前夕(12月18日至24日)增长55%，以及今年首星期的增长88%，主要归因于新免税 政策、财富效应、促销活动及节日演唱会等推动。 ...

花旗发表研究报告指，去年第四季以来海南离岛免税销售表现较预期强劲，由10月及11月份的按年增长 13%及27%，加快至圣诞节前夕(12月18日至24日)增长55%，以及今年首星期的增长88%，主要归因于新 免税政策、财富效应、促销活动及节日演唱会等推动。该行预期，海南强劲的销售趋势或于冬天旺季持 续，对海南今年免税销售增长前景变得更正面，预期销售按年增长将超过20%。花旗将中国中免H股目 标价由72港元上调至100港元，维持"买入"评级，展开30天上行催化剂观察；将今明两年盈利预测上调 5%及6.6%，2025年全年盈利预测则下调6.3%，以反映去年第三季业绩未达预期。 ...

花旗将中国中免H股目标价由72港元上调至100港元，维持"买入"评级，展开30天上行催化剂观察；将 今明两年盈利预测上调5%及6.6%，2025年全年盈利预测则下调6.3%，以反映去年第三季业绩未达预 期。 花旗发表研究报告指，去年第四季以来海南离岛免税销售表现较预期强劲，由10月及11月份的按年增长 13%及27%，加快至圣诞节前夕(12月18日至24日)增长55%，以及今年首星期的增长88%，主要归因于新 免税政策、财富效应、促销活动及节日演唱会等推动。该行预期，海南强劲的销售趋势或于冬天旺季持 续，对海南今年免税销售增长前景变得更正面，预期销售按年增长将超过20%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tourism market in Hainan is experiencing significant growth, driven by the benefits of the new free trade policy and diverse product offerings, indicating a transition to high-quality development in the sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Duty Free Group (中国中免) shares rose nearly 4%, reaching HKD 84, with a trading volume of HKD 50.17 million [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that by Q4 2025, China Duty Free's revenue, operating profit, and net profit will grow by 19%, 92%, and 135% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - During the New Year holiday in 2026, Hainan received 2.1716 million tourists, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, and generated a total tourism revenue of CNY 3.136 billion, up 28.9% year-on-year [1] - The growth in revenue outpaced the increase in visitor numbers by 3.7 percentage points, indicating an ongoing optimization of the consumption structure [1] - The duty-free and inbound tourism sectors showed remarkable performance, with expectations that the Hainan duty-free market will grow by 25% to 30% year-on-year in 2026, contributing to a 44% profit growth for China Duty Free [1]