Market Overview - Southbound funds traded approximately HKD 138.285 billion today, a significant increase of about HKD 21.8 billion compared to the previous day, accounting for 39.75% of the total turnover of the Hang Seng Index, which has been below 40% for several consecutive days [2] - Despite the Hong Kong stock market accelerating downward, southbound funds saw a net inflow of approximately HKD 1.907 billion, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect recording a net inflow of about HKD 2.738 billion, while the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect experienced a net outflow of approximately HKD 0.83 billion [2] Individual Stock Performance - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) saw a significant net buy of HKD 1.304 billion, while its stock price fell by 1.24% [2][3] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) had a net buy of HKD 0.278 billion, with a stock price decline of 1.24% [2][3] - Huahong Semiconductor (01347.HK) experienced a net outflow of HKD 0.615 billion and a sharp decline of 11.24% [2][4] - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) had a net outflow of HKD 0.464 billion, with a stock price drop of 5.58% [2][4] - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093.HK) saw a net outflow of HKD 0.393 billion and a decline of 4.69% [2][4] - Alibaba-W (09988.HK) experienced a net outflow of HKD 0.329 billion, with a stock price decrease of 3.49% [2][4] - SMIC (00981.HK) had a net outflow of HKD 0.162 billion, with a decline of 4.24% [2][4] Trading Activity - In the top ten active stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai), Alibaba-W had a net outflow of HKD 0.816 billion, while Tencent Holdings had a net inflow of HKD 0.880 billion [5] - On the Shenzhen Stock Connect, Alibaba-W recorded a net inflow of HKD 0.488 billion, while Huahong Semiconductor had a significant net outflow of HKD 0.554 billion [5]

2026 年 02 月 02 日 券商金股解析月报（2026 年 02 月） 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 相关研究报告 《开源量化评论（23）-"金股+"组 合的量化方案》-2021.4.26 《开源量化评论（32）-券商金股的内 部收益结构》-2021.8.29 魏建榕（分析师） 高鹏（分析师） weijianrong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519120001 gaopeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520090002 2 月份券商金股特征解析 2 月份紫金矿业、中际旭创、海光信息、万华化学、贵州茅台、福斯特、山东黄 金等金股推 ...

2月首个交易日，市场全天震荡调整，三大指数均跌超2%。截至收盘，沪指跌2.48%，深成指跌2.69%，创业板指跌2.46%。沪深两市成交额2.58万亿，较上 一个交易日缩量2508亿。盘面上，全市场超4600只个股下跌，其中123只个股跌停。从板块来看，白酒概念反复活跃，皇台酒业3连板，金徽酒3天2板，水井 坊触及涨停。电网设备概念逆势走强，汉缆股份、白云电器、三变科技、保变电气等多股涨停。下跌方面，有色金属、油气、化工、煤炭、半导体等板块跌 幅居前。 国联民生证券表示，市场在趋势上行后，窄幅震荡，波动率先升后降，当前或仍需要震荡消化前期涨幅。一方面，本月以沪深300为首的ETF流出较多，对 宽基指数形成压力，大盘风格明显弱于小盘，另一方面，主题轮动加速，部分主题冲高回落，短期小盘、成长占优，但后续有再均衡的需求。中期看，市场 波动率仍较低，仍处于趋势上行的过程中，春季行情仍在延续。随着ETF流出放缓，后续大盘权重股或有补涨的机会。我们认为在当前市场环境下，市场仍 缺乏盈利验证，并且流动性较为充裕，市场仍会灌输各类主题资产和宏大叙事下的投资机会，因而在市场完成调整后，主题资产仍会有新的机会。 浙商证券表示，展 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights that the recent volatility in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by market momentum reversals, with silver attracting high leverage and speculative funds since November 2025 [2][5] - The report anticipates that after the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, there will be more interest rate cuts than the market expects, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields likely to decline [2][4] - The report notes that the recent decline in the manufacturing PMI does not indicate a weakening economy, as it reflects a temporary fluctuation rather than a downward trend [10] Group 2: Commodity Market Analysis - The report indicates that the recent crash in silver prices has led to liquidity risks that may spread to other commodities, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the support levels for gold prices, particularly the 60-day moving average, which is currently at $4,400 per ounce [5] - The report suggests that the Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented measures to manage the risk of a one-sided market in silver futures [5] Group 3: Equity Market Outlook - The report predicts a rebound in the A-share market following the Spring Festival, driven by positive sentiment from performance forecasts and new developments in sectors like AI applications and commercial aerospace [6][10] - It advises a balanced ETF allocation in domestic equities, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the market [11] Group 4: Bond Market Perspective - The report notes that the bond market is expected to see increased buying activity due to risk aversion and expectations of monetary easing, with 10-year yields projected to decline to around 1.80% [7][10] - It highlights that the recent adjustments in risk appetite have created trading opportunities in government bonds as a hedge against stock market volatility [4][7]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of capital from various stocks, with notable declines in share prices across multiple sectors, suggesting a bearish sentiment in the market. Group 1: Major Stocks with Capital Outflows - Zhongji Xuchuang experienced the highest capital outflow of 3.861 billion, with a share price decline of 8.94% [1][2] - BlueFocus Media saw a capital outflow of 2.275 billion, with a decrease of 8.4% in its stock price [1][2] - Zijin Mining had an outflow of 1.891 billion, reflecting an 8.79% drop in its share price [1][2] - Industrial Fulian faced an outflow of 1.839 billion, with a 3.5% decline in stock value [1][2] - Zhaoyi Innovation reported a capital outflow of 1.673 billion, with a significant drop of 10% in its share price [1][2] Group 2: Additional Stocks with Notable Outflows - Shannon Microelectronics had an outflow of 1.520 billion, with a steep decline of 12.36% [1][2] - BYD experienced a capital outflow of 1.374 billion, with a 4.22% decrease in its stock price [1][2] - Baiwei Storage saw an outflow of 1.183 billion, with a decline of 10.35% [1][2] - Jiangbolong had an outflow of 1.150 billion, with a 10.77% drop in its share price [1][2] - Northern Rare Earth reported an outflow of 1.027 billion, with a 7.62% decline [1][2] Group 3: Other Stocks with Capital Outflows - China Aluminum faced an outflow of 1.016 billion, with a stock price decrease of 9.98% [1][2] - Tianfu Communication had an outflow of 0.977 billion, with a 4% decline in its share price [1][3] - SMIC reported an outflow of 0.953 billion, with a 4.81% drop [1][3] - iFlytek experienced an outflow of 0.797 billion, with a 4.36% decline [1][3] - Wanhua Chemical had an outflow of 0.741 billion, with an 8.68% decrease [1][3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Gold prices experienced extreme volatility, with a significant rise followed by a sharp decline due to market sentiment and external factors, but the nomination of Waller is not seen as a turning point for the market [2][12] - Copper prices are expected to stabilize after recent fluctuations, supported by strong fundamentals and low inventory levels, suggesting a buy-and-hold strategy for copper mining stocks [3][13] - Lithium prices have been declining, but demand is expected to increase due to new policies and seasonal factors, indicating potential for future price support [4][14] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Research Insights - Gold: After a rapid increase, gold prices faced a sharp drop, but the overall upward trend remains intact for long-term investors [2][12] - Copper: The extreme market sentiment has subsided, and the fundamentals for copper remain strong, suggesting a hold on copper mining stocks [3][13] - Lithium: Inventory levels are decreasing, and new demand drivers are emerging, indicating a potential rebound in prices [4][14] 2. Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 3.70%, outperforming the market by 4.14%, ranking 4th among 30 sub-industries [16] - Top performers in the non-ferrous metals sector included gold, copper, and lead-zinc, with individual stocks like Hunan Gold showing significant gains [16][22] 3. Metal Prices and Inventory - New energy metals: Cobalt prices increased, while lithium prices decreased significantly [23][24] - Base metals: Domestic prices for copper, aluminum, and zinc rose, while lead prices slightly declined [33][35] - Precious metals: Gold and silver prices fell sharply, with gold down 4.7% and silver down 22.5% [47][48]

山东黄金 紫金矿业 山东黄金 紫金矿业 紫金黄金国际 灵宝黄金 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 49.10 -5.45 -9.99% 9.99% 6.65% 3.34% 0.00% 3.34% 6.65% 9.99% 49.10 50.92 52.73 54.55 56.37 58.18 60.00 09:30 10:30 11:30/13:00 14:00 15:00 600 43万 87万 130万 黄金股大幅低开，截至发稿，灵宝黄金(03330)跌13.87%，报20港元；中国黄金（600916）国际(02099) 跌12.28%，报180港元；山东黄金（600547）(01787)跌10.8%，报39.48港元；紫金矿业（601899） (02899)跌9.98%，报37.72港元；紫金黄金国际(02259)跌8.14%，报200.8港元。 消息面上，美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什出任美联储主席，引爆市场鹰派预期，贵金属遭恐慌抛售。1 月30日，伦敦黄金现货大跌7.8%，创1980年2月以来最大单日跌幅，COMEX纽约金期货单日暴跌 9.3%。对此，国泰海通证券认为，沃什时刻"导致贵金属为代表的市场大幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market has experienced a significant pullback, with spot gold dropping over 6% on February 2, reflecting a fragile structure after a sharp short-term rise. The long-term outlook for the non-ferrous sector remains strong due to factors such as the restructuring of the monetary credit system, supply-side rigidity, and new demand dynamics, although short-term risks of correction should be monitored [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - The non-ferrous sector has shown volatility, with traditional valuation models becoming ineffective as market sentiment and geopolitical factors increasingly influence prices [3]. - The nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair has led to expectations of policy shifts, including a significant reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, which could impact liquidity and future interest rate cuts [3]. - On January 30, international gold prices recorded their largest single-day drop in 40 years, indicating heightened volatility and risk in the gold market, prompting experts to advise caution among investors [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The non-ferrous sector presents both long-term investment opportunities and short-term risks, necessitating a rational approach from investors based on their risk tolerance [1]. - The recent performance of the non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) indicates a significant drop in component stocks, with many experiencing declines of over 5% [2][6]. - Despite the recent downturn, the long-term fundamentals for industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and tin remain strong, with expectations for price recovery post-correction [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics, including high global debt and geopolitical uncertainties, provide a solid foundation for precious metal prices to trend positively in the long run [4]. - The non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) is highlighted for its comprehensive coverage of various metal sectors, positioning it well to benefit from the ongoing supercycle in non-ferrous metals [5][9]. - The ETF's index has shown a cumulative return leading its peers, with a significant portion of its gains driven by earnings rather than valuation increases, indicating a favorable investment environment [11][12].

消息面上，万国黄金集团发布公告，陈景河先生将获委任为公司首席顾问，自2026年2月2日起生效。此 外，公司已成立战略发展委员会，为集团现有业务的发展策略及未来潜在项目提供建议。公开资料显 示，陈景河为紫金矿业（601899）集团股份有限公司创始人、原董事长。 万国黄金集团(03939)早盘涨超8%，截至发稿，涨5.06%，报13.08港元，成交额7.33亿港元。 值得注意的是，2024年10月，万国黄金完成向紫金矿业的全资子公司金山(香港)国际矿业配售1.66亿 股；今年5月宣布，公司附属金岭矿业（000655）与紫金矿冶订立选矿技术服务合同，同时与紫金工程 订立扩建可行性研究合同。环球富盛发布研报称，与紫金矿业的合作不仅提可以供资金加快发展集团位 于所罗门群岛的金岭项目，还有助于经验共享，并在海外采矿技术及矿山营运方面提供支持。 ...

紫金矿业 20260130 摘要 有色金属回调受多重因素影响：美元指数反弹、美联储政策预期变化、 美国与伊朗危机担忧缓和以及部分金属品种库存回升，共同导致了市场 波动，其中沪铝、沪铜、沪锡分别下跌 4%、3%和 8%。 尽管短期回调，但大宗商品超级周期长期看多，预计持续 3 年以上，受 大国博弈、战略收储、供应链重构和国内反内卷等多重因素驱动，2026 年有色板块仍有较大上涨空间，即使经历 1 月涨幅 30%后的调整，仍保 持 20%以上涨幅。 紫金矿业投资价值较高，核心逻辑在于看多铜价，预计 LME 铜价将达 1.5 万美元，沪铜达 12 万元。尽管年初至今跑输有色大盘，但随着铜价 上涨，其表现将逐步改善，当前宏观环境及供给端约束下，对紫金矿业 持乐观态度。 铜的表现落后于黄金，黄金已上涨 70%。预计未来资金将逐步流入铜市 场。紫金矿业持有紫金黄金国际 87%股份，后者涨幅超 60%，若后续 大票抛压结束，紫金矿业有望迎来补涨。 Q&A 为什么今天有色金属板块出现大跌？ 今天有色金属板块大跌的核心原因是昨晚贵金属价格的剧烈波动，特别是黄金 ETF 的波动率达到了历史峰值。通常，当波动率达到峰值时，黄金价格 ...