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中金:如果美国通胀与流动性冲击导致中美股票、黄金、美债等资产回调,建议逢低增配
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-13 00:55
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a compensatory rise in U.S. inflation as predicted by CICC, which may impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and global liquidity [1] Group 1: Inflation Predictions - CICC calculates statistical errors in U.S. inflation and forecasts a rise in CPI data for December 2025, January 2026, and April 2026 [1] - Recent strong U.S. inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to slow down its rate cuts, resulting in tighter global liquidity [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - There is an increase in uncertainty for major asset classes in both China and the U.S. due to inflation and liquidity shocks [1] - It is recommended to increase allocation in commodities to hedge against risks [1] - In the event of a pullback in U.S. stocks, gold, and U.S. Treasuries due to inflation and liquidity impacts, it is advised to buy on dips [1]
中金:多重利好促成强劲“开门红”,但需防范短期波动
中金点睛· 2026-01-13 00:33
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance at the beginning of 2026, with significant increases in major indices and record trading volumes, driven by multiple favorable factors [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 12, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 4.9%, marking 17 consecutive days of gains since the end of 2025, outperforming major global markets [2]. - The total trading volume on January 12 reached 3.64 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high [2]. - The ChiNext Index and the STAR Market have seen increases of 5.8% and 12.5% respectively since the beginning of the year [2]. Group 2: Supporting Factors for Market Growth - Investor sentiment for 2026, particularly in the first half, is optimistic, leading to early capital allocation [3]. - Recent events in the technology sector, such as the launch of commercial satellites and advancements in AI applications, have catalyzed interest and investment [3]. - Anticipation of positive earnings forecasts from A-share companies at the end of January, particularly benefiting small and mid-cap stocks, has contributed to market optimism [3]. - The trend of residents reallocating deposits continues, creating a positive feedback loop with market performance [3]. - The recent appreciation of the RMB, reaching 6.96, has also supported market sentiment [3]. Group 3: Short-term Market Considerations - The rapid increase in market performance and trading volume necessitates caution regarding potential short-term volatility [4]. - The turnover rate based on free float market capitalization reached 6.7%, the highest since August of the previous year, indicating heightened investor sentiment [4]. - Historical data suggests that turnover rates exceeding 5% often correlate with increased market volatility, warranting close attention to market dynamics [4]. Group 4: Mid-term Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook for the A-share market's upward trend, driven by the reconfiguration of international order and China's industrial innovation [5]. - The ongoing changes in global monetary order and capital flows are expected to have a more significant impact than short-term domestic fundamentals [5]. - Recent geopolitical developments and the evolving China-U.S. trade relationship are anticipated to further support the restructuring of monetary order [5]. - Continuous advancements in AI technology and related industries are expected to drive growth and asset revaluation in China [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Focus areas include AI technology, which is entering an application phase, with opportunities in computing power, optical modules, and cloud infrastructure [6]. - Companies involved in overseas expansion, particularly in sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, and gaming, are recommended due to their growth potential [6]. - Attention should also be given to cyclical sectors that are nearing improvement points, such as chemicals and renewable energy [6]. - Long-term investment in high-dividend companies is advised, considering the trend of institutional capital entering the market [6]. - Sectors expected to show strong performance in annual reports include gold, TMT benefiting from AI, and non-bank financials [6].
海大国际递表港交所 联席保荐人为摩根大通、中金公司和广发证券
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Haida International has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with joint sponsors including JPMorgan, CICC, and GF Securities [1] - Haida International is a technology-driven global agricultural company that provides comprehensive solutions for the entire value chain of the livestock industry, primarily based on its feed business [1] - The company's key markets cover Asia (excluding East Asia), Africa, and Latin America [1] Group 2 - According to Frost & Sullivan data, Haida International is projected to be the second-largest aquaculture feed supplier in Asia (excluding East Asia) in 2024, with a production volume of 1 million tons [1] - The company is also the third-largest feed supplier in Vietnam, with a feed product output of 1.7 million tons [1]
海大国际递表港交所 2024年水产料产量达100万吨
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-13 00:00
Core Viewpoint - Haida International Holdings Limited has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with J.P. Morgan, CICC, and GF Securities acting as joint sponsors [1]. Company Overview - Haida International is a technology-driven global agricultural enterprise, primarily focused on feed business, providing comprehensive solutions for the entire value chain of the livestock industry. Its core markets include Asia (excluding East Asia), Africa, and Latin America [3]. - According to Frost & Sullivan, by 2024, Haida International is the second-largest aquaculture feed supplier in Asia (excluding East Asia) with a production volume of 1 million tons, and the third-largest feed supplier in Vietnam with a production volume of 1.7 million tons [3]. - The company offers a complete range of products and services covering feed, seedlings, and animal health, with feed being its main product. The feed product lines include aquaculture feed, poultry feed, and pig feed [3]. - As of January 5, 2026, the company's feed production bases are located in six countries: Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Egypt, Bangladesh, and Ecuador [3]. Financial Data - For the fiscal years ending December 31, 2023, 2024, and the nine months ending September 30, 2025, the company achieved revenues of approximately RMB 9.025 billion, RMB 11.417 billion, and RMB 11.177 billion, respectively [7]. - The net profit for the same periods was approximately RMB 360 million, RMB 735 million, and RMB 869 million [8]. - The gross profit margins for the fiscal years were 12.9%, 15.2%, and 16.8% respectively [10]. Industry Overview - Asia (excluding East Asia) has abundant aquatic resources, creating favorable conditions for aquaculture. Countries like Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia are significant aquaculture bases globally [12]. - Vietnam is the second-largest market for feed in Asia (excluding East Asia), with the aquaculture feed segment being the fastest-growing category. The market size is expected to grow from 4 million tons in 2020 to 4.5 million tons by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.0% [12]. - The aquaculture feed industry is experiencing significant consolidation, with the market share of the top five companies in Vietnam increasing from 28.1% in 2020 to 47.0% in 2024, and projected to reach 60.5% by 2029 [12]. - Indonesia holds the third-largest market share in the feed market in Asia (excluding East Asia) at 13.5%, with a CAGR of 3.3% expected from 2020 to 2024 [14]. Competitive Landscape - In 2024, Haida International is projected to produce 1,011 thousand tons of aquaculture feed, ranking second in the market share in Asia (excluding East Asia) [17]. - The top five companies in the aquaculture feed market account for 31.9% of the total market share [18].
中金公司(03908.HK)遭易方达基金减持543.4万股
Ge Long Hui· 2026-01-12 23:13
| 股份代號: | 03908 | | --- | --- | | 上市法國名稱: | 中國國際金融股份有限公司 - H股 | | 日期 (日 / 月 / 年): | 13/12/2025 - 13/01/2026 | | 表格序號 | 大股東/董事/最高行政人員名稱 作出披露的 買入 / 賣出或涉及的股 每股的平均價 | | | | 持有權益的股份數目 佔已發行的 有關事件的 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 份數目 | 月因 | | | ( 請參閱上述 * 註解 ) 有投票權股 (日 / 月 / 4 | | | | | | | | 份自分比 | | | | | | | | (%) | | | CS20260111E00009 | 易方达基金管理有限公司 | 1201(L) | 5,434,000(L) | HKD 22.8139 | 189.405,600(L) | 9.95(L)07/01/2026 | 格隆汇1月13日丨根据联交所最新权益披露资料显示,2026年1月7日,中金公司(03908.HK)遭易方达基金管理有限公司在场内以每 ...
金价首破4600美元,上金所出手降温,黄金ETF暂停申购
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2026-01-12 12:12
Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced a significant surge, with COMEX gold surpassing $4600 per ounce and Shanghai silver futures rising by 14%, driven by concerns over Federal Reserve independence, geopolitical conflicts, central bank gold purchases, and de-dollarization trends [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 12, COMEX gold futures reached a peak of $4612 per ounce, while COMEX silver hit $84.69 per ounce, with a peak intraday increase of over 6% [2]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures peaked at 1031 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose by 14%, closing at 20945 yuan per kilogram, with all seven distant month contracts hitting the limit [2]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw all six base metal futures contracts close higher, with LME tin and copper rising approximately 5% and 2%, respectively [5]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent surge in precious metals is attributed to multiple factors, including the investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which is seen as a long-term threat to the Fed's independence, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions and central banks' continuous gold accumulation [2][6]. - The U.S. labor department reported a lower-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls for December, which, combined with a declining unemployment rate and a weakening dollar, provided new support for gold prices [5]. Group 3: Risk Signals - High volatility risks are evident, with global futures exchanges frequently intervening and increasing trading margins for precious metals [3]. - The recent announcement from the Shanghai Gold Exchange highlighted significant price fluctuations and rising uncertainties, prompting a warning for members to monitor market changes closely [3]. Group 4: ETF Adjustments - To manage high inflows, gold ETFs have begun to limit subscriptions, with E Fund's gold ETF announcing a suspension of subscriptions starting January 16, aimed at protecting holder interests and ensuring stable fund operations [8]. - The adjustment in subscription terms includes raising the minimum subscription unit and streamlining the physical redemption contracts, which is expected to mitigate tracking errors due to premium discrepancies [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the ongoing central bank gold purchases, combined with the irreversible trend of global monetary expansion and de-dollarization, will continue to support the upward trajectory of precious metals [7]. - Bloomberg Commodity Index's adjustment of gold and silver weightings is expected to create selling pressure, particularly on silver, which may experience greater volatility due to its smaller market size [9].
中金公司:每手“23中金G2”将于1月17日派息31.8元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-12 11:47
中金公司(601995)(03908)公布,"23中金G2"将于2026年1月17日派付自2025年1月17日至2026年1月16 日期间的利息,票面利率为3.18%,每手债券面值1000元派息31.8元(含税)。 ...
中金公司(03908):“24中金C1”将于1月19日付息
智通财经网· 2026-01-12 11:33
本期债券简称"24中金C1",本期债券票面利率(计息年利率)为2.87%,每手本期债券面值为1000元,派发利 息为28.70元(含税)。 智通财经APP讯,中金公司(03908)发布公告,中国国际金融股份有限公司2024年面向专业机构投资者公 开发行次级债券(第一期)(品种一)(本期债券)将于2026年1月19日派付2025年1月18日至2026年1月17日期 间的利息。 ...
中金公司:“24中金C1”将于1月19日付息
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-12 11:32
本期债券简称"24中金C1",本期债券票面利率(计息年利率)为2.87%,每手本期债券面值为1000元,派发利 息为28.70元(含税)。 中金公司(601995)(03908)发布公告,中国国际金融股份有限公司2024年面向专业机构投资者公开发 行次级债券(第一期)(品种一)(本期债券)将于2026年1月19日派付2025年1月18日至2026年1月17日期间的 利息。 ...
中金公司(03908.HK):第一期永续次级债券发行规模为30亿元 票面利率为2.38%
Ge Long Hui· 2026-01-12 11:28
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China International Capital Corporation (CICC) has been approved to issue perpetual subordinated bonds up to RMB 20 billion, targeting professional investors [1] - The specific issuance under this approval is for a maximum of RMB 3 billion, with a face value of RMB 100 per bond, and will be conducted through a pricing inquiry and allocation method for professional investors [1] - The bond issuance was completed on January 12, 2026, with a final issuance size of RMB 3 billion, a coupon rate of 2.38%, and a subscription multiple of 2.10 times [1]